Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

Its simple. The way he treats the dead money. He's already a very well known pro with all the the players at the WSOP. You don't think even the bad players know that if you suckout on phil he's going to be a shell of himself the next few hands? He might as well have a big sign that says 'bust me, it'll be a story you can tell everyone at a party for the the rest of your life' And even after a bad beat, he tells the bad (or even good) player exactly what he did bad and why. Isn't the whole point of poker to get players to MAKE mistakes? How much further would have Phil H. gone if he just sat quietly, played well, and not ejaculated his ego all over the table when a 2-1 underdog sucks out on him?

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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You don't think even the bad players know that if you suckout on phil he's going to be a shell of himself the next few hands? He might as well have a big sign that says 'bust me, it'll be a story you can tell everyone at a party for the the rest of your life'

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So Phil Helmith will never win another big tournament because he has put himself in a position where people are quicker to get all their chips in with the worst hand against him than they are against anybody else.

That's your argument?
That's what you want to go with?
You sure?
Cause it's a free country, you can go with that if you want.
But in your position I might be inclined to go with something else... something not stupid.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

I'm going to agree with KneeCo here. But I think you neglect that in tournaments sometimes you don't want your opponents to make a mistake that could cripple or end your tournament.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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That's your argument?
That's what you want to go with?
You sure?
Cause it's a free country, you can go with that if you want.
But in your position I might be inclined to go with something else... something not stupid.

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lol

fantastic.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

PH's bets are +EV, eg AQ vs. KJ. So PH made the right move. Does he not get it? He wins even when loses - following Sklanskyesque reasoning.

He should be ecstatic that KJ called his AQ push.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

He will not wni a major tournament until the donkfest fad is over... I agree. but it's not for the reason you stated.

It's because we see his weaknesses exploited, and he doesn't seem to be changing his game. I doubt I will ever play against him, and if I do I won't talk during a hand, but from what I've seen (yes I know it's edited) the man is one of the expert players who think the most expert play of all is the big laydown. Also, he steams, and steams and steams, for much longer than most, which would hurt him in shorthanded situations, i.e. the end of a tourney.

He genuinely seems so insulted that he is playing against donks that he doesnt see them as players at all, and won't adjust his game accordingly.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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PH's bets are +EV, eg AQ vs. KJ. So PH made the right move. Does he not get it? He wins even when loses - following Sklanskyesque reasoning.

He should be ecstatic that KJ called his AQ push.

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I think the hand was AK vs KJ. -J

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

Last March, Hellmuth won the heads-up championship. It paid $500,000. He made two final tables at this year's WSOP (finish 10th in one).

So, I think we'll see a Hellmuth win eventually.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

you have to understand something, that what you see on TV is about less than 5% of what happens that entire day at that table.... you see him bitch and moan for 40% of that 5% of the time.

Think about it.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Last March, Hellmuth won the heads-up championship. It paid $500,000. He made two final tables at this year's WSOP (finish 10th in one).

So, I think we'll see a Hellmuth win eventually.

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Barring physical health issues arising, I think Hellmuth will win again. He just needs to catch better than average hands a few times and get lucky a couple times. This is what all winners get, and it's not like the cards have eyes and can avoid Phil. He is too good not to win again.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

I wish i had mediocre players constantly going out of their way to gun for me with what they know are mediocre holdings. Poker would be a lot easier.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

I do believe it is entirely possible that Phil may never win a big tourney again; but not for the reasons stated.

Phil's problem is that the game has changed radically over the past few years and he has failed to adjust to it. Doyle Brunson is a fantastic example of a player who has recognized the need to adjust his game over the years to keep up with what other players are doing.

When Phil only had to play against 150 - 300 people in a major tournament he could count on a majority of them being solid players who would only occasionally bluff but who would also know when to get out of hands. His problem now is that most major tournaments involve spending the first couple of days wading through and avoiding the minefield that are the donkeys. Too many people who really do not know how to play well just does not work for a guy like Phil.

Phil's problems are two-fold. First, he really is a mental case. He really has problems with people sucking out and as he puts it, getting lucky. What he has never been able to grasp is that if you go to the river as a 2-1 or even a 3-1 favorite, you will come out of the hand a loser 33 or 25% of the time. It is remarkable that after a 20 year career he cannot accept this. We all hate bad beats but real pros understand that they are a part of the game and move on.

His second problem is that he is still dependent on this style of play that is nearly exclusively limited to letting the other player dig his own grave and bet into Phil when Phil has the best hand. Again, that worked well when Phil played mostly against players who knew what they were doing. But in today's age of tournaments consisting of a majority of average players, I cannot see Phil doing that well unless he changes his game.

It is worth noting that he did well in his head's up tournament win only because he switched back and forth with his game style.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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you have to understand something, that what you see on TV is about less than .5% of what happens that entire day at that table.... you see him bitch and moan for 40% of that .5% of the time.

Think about it.

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FYP

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

There are still plenty of tournaments with 150-300 players that Phil could take down. The man does not play as much poker as he used to. I was reading an interview with him and he says that he makes most of his money off of endorsements these days. If he were to play more I'm sure he'll get a big win. The Heads Up Championship wasn't exactly a minor win either. 500 Grand is a lot of money in my book and that is what this game is about.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney.

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I imagine that If I constantly got all my money in as a 2-1 favorite I would win so many tournies it would be ridiculous.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney.

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I imagine that If I constantly got all my money in as a 2-1 favorite I would win so many tournies it would be ridiculous.

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Get all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times and you win them all less than one percent of the time.

The key methinks is to get SOME of your money in as a favorite.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

And this is my point. Is Phil a great player? Yes. But the fields today are so large that by painting a target so large on his chest by drawing attention to himself by his actions. Even the blind shooters will hit the target eventually if its big enough, they just need to be aimed towards it....

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney.

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I imagine that If I constantly got all my money in as a 2-1 favorite I would win so many tournies it would be ridiculous.

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Get all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times and you win them all less than one percent of the time.

The key methinks is to get SOME of your money in as a favorite.

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That's all true, but still a bit unfair. First, it's extremely unlikely that you're even going to get a chance to put all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times, even assuming you never lost. If you start with x chips, go all-in against a bigger stack 12 times and win each time, you'll have 4096x chips, which would be more than enough to win a 1000-person tourney (with 1000x total chips in play). Even if you only survive around 1% of the time, most people would love to win 1% of the time in a 1000+ person tournament. And being more realistic about it, after you double-up a few times you'll have such a significant chip lead over most of the other players that you'll be free to play "normally" for a long time, using your big stack to bully the table and accumulate even more chips, before you'd face another situation where your whole stack was in jeopardy.

I think a lot of good MTT players would dispute the idea that you wouldn't take a known 2-1 edge, even if it was for all your chips. You pretty much have to take some chances and get lucky a few times if you're going to win against such a big field. Just because your chances of winning with a particular strategy are less than 1% doesn't mean it's a flawed strategy when there are thousands of people in the field.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney.

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Get all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times and you win them all less than one percent of the time.

The key methinks is to get SOME of your money in as a favorite.

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to misquote raymer/paul phillips/any pro that isnt autistic -

if you pass up a 60/40 edge in a tournament, you are a [censored] donkey and i would be glad to have you and your passive play at my table any time.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

Phil will win a big tournament once the donkfest is over (like someone said earlier in this thread). I assume that would be in 5 years (in 3 year the pokerfad will be dead, and each year after the fields decrease in big tournaments by about 200 players)

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney.

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I imagine that If I constantly got all my money in as a 2-1 favorite I would win so many tournies it would be ridiculous.

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Get all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times and you win them all less than one percent of the time.

The key methinks is to get SOME of your money in as a favorite.

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I think it's already been posted but obviously I would not always be covered by my opponent, at least not after the first few times I double up anyways. I think passing up opportunities to get your money in as a 2-1 favorite because it's risking your tournament is just incredibly weak tight. I'll stand by my statement that I would be a ridiculous winner if I got the money in every time I had a 2-1 edge.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Get yourself in enough positions is a big tourney where even your 'only' a 2-1 favorite for all your chips with a field of 1000+, your not winning that tourney.

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I imagine that If I constantly got all my money in as a 2-1 favorite I would win so many tournies it would be ridiculous.

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Get all your money in as a 2-1 favorite 12 times and you win them all less than one percent of the time.

The key methinks is to get SOME of your money in as a favorite.

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I think it's already been posted but obviously I would not always be covered by my opponent, at least not after the first few times I double up anyways. I think passing up opportunities to get your money in as a 2-1 favorite because it's risking your tournament is just incredibly weak tight. I'll stand by my statement that I would be a ridiculous winner if I got the money in every time I had a 2-1 edge.

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Even if you were covered each time you got your money in you'd still be doing extremely well. Hypothetically if you only bet when you were a 2:1 favorite, always went all-in, were always called by a equal-sized stack, and could never tie, you would need to win 10 straight all-ins to win a 1,024 person tournament. You'd only have a 1.7% chance of winning these all-ins. However, that would mean you'd be about 17.8x more likely than the average person to win the tournament (the average person would have a 1/1024 chance as opposed to you with a 1/57 chance). Even if you only placed first and never were in the money other than winning, you'd have a 7.1x tournament equity (assuming first is 40%). Any tournament pro would take those numbers, even Phil Hellmuth. But even Phil isn't that good.

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

All i know is after watching the wsop on espn last tuesday. I'm kinda annoyed by phil. I've never seen anyone bitch and complain like he does. He needs to get over himself. I mean you never see ivey go crazy like that when he gets scooped. If I was sittin at that table I would have told him to shut the f* up and play. IT was funny that he was complaining so bad about that guy with kj... because right before that they showed a piece where phil was saying he hates listening to people who complain about their bad beats. But I think your right. He wont be winning anymore more world series anytime soon.

Even when HE is the DOG ...
 

Whether Phil wins another big tourney or not, one thing I really love about him ...

He pushes all in with A7o. He gets called by the big blind who has 88.

The 88 holds up. Phil walks away from the table complaining to the crowd and his wife that the "idiot big blind" called all of his money off with 88.

Gee Phil, the player did have the better hand, right?

Re: Even when HE is the DOG ...
 

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Whether Phil wins another big tourney or not, one thing I really love about him ...

He pushes all in with A7o. He gets called by the big blind who has 88.

The 88 holds up. Phil walks away from the table complaining to the crowd and his wife that the "idiot big blind" called all of his money off with 88.

Gee Phil, the player did have the better hand, right?

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I don't remember this one. Are you talking about this year's WSOP?

Re: Even when HE is the DOG ...
 

Sounds like he's talking about the AQ vs. 77

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

The point is stupid...I was in a Party tourney once where I was trash talking everybody, not quite as an 'experiment' but a lot of people were getting pissed off at me. I *think* this caused some people to call my all ins with marginal hands, because they wanted to take me out. I won the tourney because of this. I think if people just want to take Phil out and want to put themselves at a disadvantage, Phil has an even greater chance of winning.

I have hope for him though [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: Why Phil Hellmuth will never win another big tourney...
 

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Phil will win a big tournament once the donkfest is over (like someone said earlier in this thread). I assume that would be in 5 years (in 3 year the pokerfad will be dead, and each year after the fields decrease in big tournaments by about 200 players)

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How will the stock market do in five years?