Turn Raise
 

W.D. was talking about turn raises yesterday, so I wanted to start looking for hands to post. This was one I thought might be decent to discuss.

Players behind me are tight.

Villain is quite loose....somewhere in the 40s. He's semi-aggressive. That's all I've really noticed so far.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

What do you think?

Re: Turn Raise
 

I think I'ts a standard semibluff against one player. Although I agree that SBing is not discussed nearly enough on this forum. I like it, I'd do the same.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Turn Raise
 

This seems like a good time to attempt the semi-bluff. The interesting thing to me is what to do if you are called and you miss? Do you fire again if checked to? Do you call a donkbet on the river?

Re: Turn Raise
 

Edited, I'm dumb. Made some comments related to the hand if players were behind you (postflop) cause I apparently can't read. HU, looks good.

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
This seems like a good time to attempt the semi-bluff. The interesting thing to me is what to do if you are called and you miss? Do you fire again if checked to? Do you call a donkbet on the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I posted the hand. I'm not trying to show any concepts I understand here...I have some mixed thoughts with some concepts with these plays.

The Ace does have some showdown value. So, this could be looked at as a free showdown play imo. Then there's the semi-bluff angle as well.

Some thoughts as I thought about the hand afterwards.

1. I play a big hand the same way. Villain probably wouldn't notice or care though.

2. I think villain is more likely to have a pair here than a draw. With the rag that fell on the turn, I think the chances of him folding an 8, 9 or some small pp are slim to none.

3. I open myself up for a 3 bet, which would suck something terrible.

4. The only out that I have that would slow him down is an ace. I can probably make 3 bbs if I just wait and will only lose 1 if I just call and can fold to a river bet.

5. Now, I'm face with a series of interesting decisions on the river. Do I bet any card? Do I call a donk? Etc.

Honestly, I'm thinking the turn raise may not be a good thing at all.

Re: Turn Raise
 

You play AA this way right? If so I like making this play as a semibluff from time to time. Usually call and sometimes raise and I like it a lot dude.

Brad

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Usually call and sometimes raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that's probably the key right there. I'm probably more like raise and sometimes misclick.

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Some thoughts as I thought about the hand afterwards.

1. I play a big hand the same way. Villain probably wouldn't notice or care though.

2. I think villain is more likely to have a pair here than a draw. With the rag that fell on the turn, I think the chances of him folding an 8, 9 or some small pp are slim to none.

3. I open myself up for a 3 bet, which would suck something terrible.

4. The only out that I have that would slow him down is an ace. I can probably make 3 bbs if I just wait and will only lose 1 if I just call and can fold to a river bet.

5. Now, I'm face with a series of interesting decisions on the river. Do I bet any card? Do I call a donk? Etc.

Honestly, I'm thinking the turn raise may not be a good thing at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with your reasons here and come to the same conclusion that raising the turn isn't that good. The key point here is 1 combined with 2. It's very unlikely that he'll every fold here. If it was the K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then I might like it more because he may be able to fold a pair. Or, if the villain was able to c/r the flop as bluff/semi-bluff sometimes as well as be able to lay down on the turn, then I would like it more. In this case, I don't like it.

As it went, I don't think I'd bet the river without improvement. I know that's probably the only way you're going to win the pot, but I think he has a better hand that he calls with too often to make a river bet +EV.

Re: Turn Raise
 

Any other thoughts from the day crowd?

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Any other thoughts from the day crowd?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a good spot for a semi-bluff raise, but maybe the wrong opponent. But he might be check raising a draw, so you're also raising for a free showdown here. Check the river if checked to.

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
Then there's the semi-bluff angle as well.

...

2. I think villain is more likely to have a pair here than a draw. With the rag that fell on the turn, I think the chances of him folding an 8, 9 or some small pp are slim to none.


[/ QUOTE ]

Not much of a semi-bluff if he'll almost never fold. In order for a semi-bluff to be good here, (assuming he'll never 3-bet and that he is currently ahead) he needs to fold about 20% of the time right now. Given your desciption, I don't think he'll ever fold right here with a better hand. Plus, worse hands have 4 outs or fewer.

There may be a free showdown play here (I am a little skeptical, but I am open to being convinced.) But as a semi-bluff I think this is wrong.

Re: Turn Raise
 

You say yourself that he will rarely fold a pair so what's the point?

A free showdown is no good for you. You would rather have him bet the river, since your hand is very well hidden and you can get multiple bets in when you hit.

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
You say yourself that he will rarely fold a pair so what's the point?

A free showdown is no good for you. You would rather have him bet the river, since your hand is very well hidden and you can get multiple bets in when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the confirmation.

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
You say yourself that he will rarely fold a pair so what's the point?

A free showdown is no good for you. You would rather have him bet the river, since your hand is very well hidden and you can get multiple bets in when you hit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Turn Raise
 

[ QUOTE ]
W.D. was talking about turn raises yesterday, so I wanted to start looking for hands to post. This was one I thought might be decent to discuss.

Players behind me are tight.

Villain is quite loose....somewhere in the 40s. He's semi-aggressive. That's all I've really noticed so far.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 max, 9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>

What do you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

I would like it a lot better with an overcard on the turn. If he is going to fold up he needs something to put you on. Many of these guys will stubbornly cling to an AK read, so if the turn were some kind of face card, I think you would have a better chance of this working.

Also having a better handle on the player type. I am not so excited about doing this against "Donk types". Unless he is a LAG pre-flop with normal stats after the flop (There are quite a few of these guy at 5/10 I imagine the same at 10/20), for instance I like to look at WTSD/W$SD, aggression, and folding by street.

So in this situation, I am not wild about the play. I want a couple other factors to be in my corner when I do this. Here I am not wild about the board texture as far as inducing a fold, the player type seems like this would be ineffective, and as far as being ahead.. yeah maybe we are..maybe were not.

Re: Turn Raise
 

I like calling twice unimproved more than raising here.

Re: Turn Raise
 

I think the turn raise is OK but it's -EV against this player. I don't know how he plays but I noticed that most players from 5/10 and 10/20 tends to call pretty loose on the flop, meaning they're willing to call down with second pair majority of the time when it's heads up. The only players who you can really bluff against are someone who's showing quality hands at showdowns(tight, thinking players).

I'm not too crazy about the turn raise either because I don't see him folding anything here. It's not really a semi-bluff if he's not willing to fold. He raised you on the flop meaning he probably hit something worth raising. If the turn card was a overcard diamond then a semi-bluff raise would work better. If the pot has less than 5BBs on the turn instead of raising I'll go ahead and just call and hope that I hit my draw. No point of protecting a hand with such a small pot against a loose player.

If he calls(which he will) I would go ahead and take the free showdown. It's clear once he calls the turn raise that he has a hand which he's willing to call to the river.

Re: Turn Raise
 

Tight table? Looks like a pf steal-raise from the hijack.

Will this guy consider this a steal-raise? Will he c/r a steal-raise with air? If so and you are ahead the turn raise shuts him down.

Will he c/r with a draw like JT or T7? If so he is calling the raise and won't pay off your hand if he misses and you hit.

Seems most likely his c/r is an 8 or 9 and he is going to S/D and may or may not 3-bet you depending on how LAGgy he is.

FE= Fold% * PotSize, and both factors seem small in this case.

The turn card made your draw very strong. 15 outs to beat a pair makes you only a 2:1 dog, and if you flat call the turn does he know where he stands when you hit your draw? Seems like you get at least 1 BB on the end like 90% of the time, and sometimes 2 bets. Any future bets you lose due to the turn raise offset the FoldEquity you gain.

On the plus side, if he IS laggy and 3-bets... your draw is plenty strong to continue and if you can hit your monster and pop him on the end that will help your metagame. Making this move with a weak draw and folding to a 3-bet could hurt your metagame. I think that's a smaller consideration.

My take is that the marginal showdown value of your A-high, strength of your draw, small pot size, and likelyhood he has a pair and won't laydown make a better case for calling instead of raising.

Interesting hand.

Re: Turn Raise
 

I don't like it b/c I don't think villan is folding and I don't think a free showdown does us any good.