Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Cross-Post

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

That is quite the fold [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]!

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Outplayed by dan the man.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

I didn't know they had WPT single table tournaments.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

yea duunno why he posted it there. Guess more people like his folds there. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]
yea duunno why he posted it there. Guess more people like his folds there.

[/ QUOTE ]

In a STT it might be better to fold and not risk taking 3rd place to cash.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

I can't tell if youre joking or not... You know he's talking about the WPT event and a full table, right?


i'm pretty sure you kidding arouund, but i guess if i'm not sure might aswell make it clear.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

That's a wicked fold. Not sure if I could make that vs. action Dan. I like your line though.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]
yea duunno why he posted it there. Guess more people like his folds there. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the fold is fine. He and Dan both have healthy stacks.

He bet the flop, could be read as a steal, Dan raises, could be read as a resteal. Gigabet calls, that suggests strength.

Giabet leads the turn strongly and gets raised. Now let's just cosider some points here:
Gigabet is playing his hand like it is strong. Yes, he can represent hands and bully and bluff, but he is meeting resistance from a tight aggressive player and keeps coming. Dan keeps escalating, that is probably not a bluff.
Dan knows that one pair hands are not that strong, so I think when gigabet puts Dan on his hand range, he's probably pretty accurate.
Dan has position, which means he is in a good spot to win the most/lose the least. Gigabet does not really have any clear good line here that I see.

If you don't like the fold, what is your plan for the rest of the hand? Personally, I don't want to play a huge pot OOP against a WC player who is most likely strong. At this point in the hand, there is 58.4K in the pot, it is 18K back to Gigabet, and he has a stack of right about 100K. If he calls, his stack is 82K and the pot is 72K, yikes! Pushing seems like the only alternative, but I doubt he gets called there unless he is beat, and there is a good chance from the action that he is beat.

If we could put Dan on a range and determine his response to a push with that range, we could work out the EV of pushing here. If Gigabets range is correct, and this is how he would play all those hands all the time (meaning the action does not favor one over the other), Giga's pot equity is 60%, but I really doubt Harrington plays J3 this way on the turn most of the time. Any way, lets say he folds J3, calls the rest. Then:
6 times Giga wins 58K
4 times Giga wins 20K
3 times Giga loses 100K

That makes pushing worth just over 10K given the assumptions from a TC perpective. (I don't know how many players are left or payouts or stuff like that, nor is there a widely accepted model for determining cahshing equity with a lot of players left in an MTT, so I don't know if this is +cashing EV or not).

At any rate, there's a lot of supposition here. Like I said, I would guess Dan calls the turn with J3 and plays the river most of the time. I also think he could have something like J4, but again, I would think he calls behind with that. Also, he could be on a stone bluff here, but I think that is not too likely, since he is hyper-conscious of getting into blind v blind disaster hands, and Giga's line suggests a lot of strength on a board that is likely to hit a sb completer. Also, maybe he took an odd line with AA-TT, but it is doubtful.

I guess I'll end my rambling by saying that Dan raising the turn here, with these stacks and pot size, is really strong and should be given a lot of respect. That was a bet intended to build a pot (or a bluff). Gigabet calling it will make it very hard to get away from the hand later, regardless of what he has. When a good player makes a bet like that, you need to really think about why he would do that. A good hand is going to call the turn here most of the time, it takes a very strong or very weak hand to raise it.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

I think with the line Giga took, a gold is reasonable.

I dont think i would have made it, but i'd probably be making a mistake.

I just really would want to see showdown here, and think he could have structure his line so that he saw one.. maybe check calling the turn and betting the river, or something.

I'm not sure. Tough hand.

I think there are 3 hands that we have beat here, J3/J4/T3. 1 hand we split with JT, and 1 hand we lose to 33.

This seems too good for us to just get away.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Considering this is a limped blind v. blind confrontation I don't really buy the extremely narrow hand range he assigns to Dan here.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]

I just really would want to see showdown here, and think he could have structure his line so that he saw one.. maybe check calling the turn and betting the river, or something.



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Checking the turn is definitely a line to think about. I think I like that line a lot better than betting out. Calling the flop and betting out shows so much strength that the turn raise scares the hell out of me. Check calling could easily get a worse hand to bet the turn. I'm not sure about the river, probably bet if it's checked through on the turn, check otherwise. Being OOP just sucks.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Considering this is a limped blind v. blind confrontation I don't really buy the extremely narrow hand range he assigns to Dan here.

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I agree. Almost sounds like he underestimates Dan's ability to bluff or semibluff here. Giga's turn lead can look like a very weak "Where am I at?" that Dan could capitilize on.

I play it different, probably by check/calling the turn, reevaluating river.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

I put this in the original thread, but the folks I know are more likely to be reading here:

You and Dan Harrington are better poker players than I will ever be, but I'm going to come out and say that I think this is a terrible fold. Dan is obviously a tight player, but from having watched him on TV and from reading his books, he certainly knows he has that image, and he certainly takes advantage of it from time to time, especially against players who are aggressive but smart enough to lay down (this is the exact profile of the sort of player one would try the sqeeze play that he advocates against). Gigabet fits that profile exactly.

Even if his range *is* 2 pair or better, it looks like you have a +EV call here, since you beat J3, T3, and T4 (I think this is a possible holding because he could certainly have raised an SB be who completed then bet the flop with second pair).

And I still think there is a chance he's on a complete bluff (not a very big one, but as I said before, it seems he's capable of running a complete bluff against exactly this sort of player in exactly this sort of situation, exactly because when he raises the flop and turn he knows Gigabet will put him on a big hand).

And what do we think he puts gigabet on? Calling the SB and then making a flop overbet when J-high flops? That should look like top pair who doesn't want to give a cheap card, and Dan's thinking might easily be "I think I can push him off top pair if I represent something that can beat it".

Fwiw, I also like the "check the turn" line. The way the hand has played so far, Harrington could also easily put giga on 89, 9Q, or even KQ, and a check the turn fits right in with this and will probably get a bet (and it also should keep the pot size under control since that seems to be a concern).

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I put this in the original thread, but the folks I know are more likely to be reading here:

You and Dan Harrington are better poker players than I will ever be, but I'm going to come out and say that I think this is a terrible fold. Dan is obviously a tight player, but from having watched him on TV and from reading his books, he certainly knows he has that image, and he certainly takes advantage of it from time to time, especially against players who are aggressive but smart enough to lay down (this is the exact profile of the sort of player one would try the sqeeze play that he advocates against). Gigabet fits that profile exactly.

Even if his range *is* 2 pair or better, it looks like you have a +EV call here, since you beat J3, T3, and T4 (I think this is a possible holding because he could certainly have raised an SB be who completed then bet the flop with second pair).

And I still think there is a chance he's on a complete bluff (not a very big one, but as I said before, it seems he's capable of running a complete bluff against exactly this sort of player in exactly this sort of situation, exactly because when he raises the flop and turn he knows Gigabet will put him on a big hand).

And what do we think he puts gigabet on? Calling the SB and then making a flop overbet when J-high flops? That should look like top pair who doesn't want to give a cheap card, and Dan's thinking might easily be "I think I can push him off top pair if I represent something that can beat it".

Fwiw, I also like the "check the turn" line. The way the hand has played so far, Harrington could also easily put giga on 89, 9Q, or even KQ, and a check the turn fits right in with this and will probably get a bet (and it also should keep the pot size under control since that seems to be a concern).

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yeah. i'm also confused about why he thinks WAWB is a raise/fold situation.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Here's the thing about this hand. When Harrington raises the flop it could easily be either for value or to take control of the hand for pot control reasons. So when giga leads the turn he takes pot control away from Harrington and it seems Harrington doesnt care since he goes right ahead and raises. Harrington is almost certainly a lock for a big hand now (although there is a small chance of pure bluff) as a good draw almost certainly calls, same with a good one pair hand like KJ/QJ. After all that it seems like a bet on the turn is much better than a check, since it gets value out of worse made hands, charges draws, and forces Dan to define his hand for us. When Dan raises in this spot im petrified. So, what hands could Dan have. Seems to me, J10/J3/103/33 and maybe maybe maybe 44 that ran a play on the flop. I don't know why giga doesnt include 103 in his range, maybe he thinks Harrington just calls on the turn there. Given that im including 103 in the range I cant find a fold. I call the raise and lead the river for the same reasons I led the turn.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Am I missing something but why everyone automatically excluding JJ and TT from possible Harringtons holdings just because he didn't reraise preflop?

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

because there is only 1 combination for each, and that coupled with dan not raising preflop makes for an extremely unlikely top or middle segt here

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Wouldn't J4 play the same way too MLG?

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

maybe, but is less likely to raise the flop. there's a bigger chance he just calls the flop.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

I play the hand passively after the flop resistance.

I can't imagine folding this.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

why not reraise on the flop the define your hand even more? i think if then he reraises, that makes it much more foldable.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Gigabets huge flop bet confuses the situation greatly by adding multiple layers of psychology to the hand. With the large flop bet Dan has to be thinking why Gigabet would make such a large bet. Is he making a move on me or is he LAG'ing it up on me? When Dan raises Gigabet, Giga has to be concerned what is going through Dan's mind. This applies to the flop and turn. The pot is getting exponentially bigger and without me being there and observing how Gigabet has been playing previously it's difficult for me to comment if Dan percieves
Gigabets play to be with a legitimate hand or as just another attempt to steal a
pot with garbage.

Had I played the hand I would have made a much smaller flop bet or better yet I would have checkraised the flop. If I make a conventional flop bet and I am raised then I reraise.
I still would have committed less chips into the pot than Gigabet ultimately did plus Dan will know that I am serious about my hand and he probably will not try to run a bluff at me.

I don't know if I make any sense or not, but I'm done rambling.

Bruce

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Harrington is almost certainly a lock for a big hand now (although there is a small chance of pure bluff) as a good draw almost certainly calls, same with a good one pair hand like KJ/QJ.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why then you think Dan is raising the flop with 33?

I can certainly see Dan raising the flop with AJ or KJ, and since he knows Darrell is a pretty agressive player, when Darrell bets the turn, Dan is letting him know that his flop raise was serious and then maybe check the river.

Why Darrell is not beting a hand like QJh or J7h in the turn?

Why Darrell's bet in the turn means strenght to Dan? Maybe Darrell thought Dan was in a resteal in the flop and now he wants to win the pot with a bet.

There are more options, I don't like Giga's line in this hand.

Disclaimer: There is the possibility that Darrell knows something about Dan that we don't. Maybe when Dan raises a person that bet the pot, he's never in a resteal. Maybe Dan never raises the turn with a one pair hand, I don't know, have not played with Dan yet.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Dan could quite possibly call the flop with 33, an excellent point.

I certainly see a flop raise with AJ/KJ, but I think a turn call is much more likely than a turn raise with those hands (also a preflop raise is highly likely).

I can't see Dan raising a flop bet and raising a turn bet all on a move here. Sure its possible, but it just seems highly unlikely.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

I agree with your range.

Would you include this:

With the bet sizes the first thing I thought Dan may have is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] w/ a decent [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] kicker.

Dan may still think he is good, but just gained a lot of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] outs on the river, and therefore minraises Giga to build a bigger pot.

Just a thought.

I guess min-raises scare more 2+2ers than I thought.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with your range.

Would you include this:

With the bet sizes the first thing I thought Dan may have is J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] w/ a decent [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] kicker.

Dan may still think he is good, but just gained a lot of [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] outs on the river, and therefore minraises Giga to build a bigger pot.

Just a thought.

I guess min-raises scare more 2+2ers than I thought.

Regards,
Woodguy

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I'm glad I didn't try butchering the analysis at 530am like I thought about doing...you guys are actually, you know, picking up on things to think about. My commentary was going to be, top two, ooog ooog, caveman shoooooooooove or something.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

i agree w/ sossman's post in the stt thread w/ the picture, i don't see how you can not get your $ in here...

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

[ QUOTE ]
My commentary was going to be, top two, ooog ooog, caveman shoooooooooove or something.

[/ QUOTE ]

i must have to work on my game a lot more, because thats all i see w/ this one

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Okay, I know Im going to get butchered for this, but is there any possibility of scared money?

Im really having a hard time rationalizing the fold here.

Re: Gigabet hand in WPT event.
 

Does this look like scared $$$?

The hand:



Date / Time: 2005-10-19 18:42:00
Title: Darrell Dicken Uses the Button
Log: David Oppenheim raised the pot preflop to $5,000 from early position. Eric Weiner called in late position and Darrell Dicken called on the button. The flop came Qd-9d-5h, and the action checked around. The turn brought the 4h, and Oppenheim fired out $14,000 in chips. Weiner quickly called, and the action was on Dicken. Dicken thought for a few moments, examining the board and eventually deciding to call. The river brought the 6h. Oppenheim checked, as did Weiner, and the action was back on Dicken who announced, "I'm all in," and started to move all of his chips forward. It was nearly a $100,000 bet, and that was enought to send Oppenheim into the tank. After a long period of deliberation, Oppenheim opted to fold. Weiner then started to talk, indicating that he thought Dicken was on a total bluff. "I'm sick," Weiner repeatedly said, before mucking his hand. Was it a position bet or was Dicken holding the nuts? You have to pay to find out.

Giga's hand and thoughts:

I had 72o, David actually bet 6k on the flop also. I was originally intending on representing diamonds, but the hearts got there instead, so I just had to make it incredibly unprofitable for them to call.

BTW, David spent 15 minutes in the tank, no one called for time, cause everyone at the table understood what an awful predicament I had put him in. He obviously had a big hand, but also understood that to make the call, he could never be wrong. Whole time he was in the tank, I was staring at the felt, with this mantra streaming through my mind. "pleasedontcallpleasedontcallpleasedontcallpleased ontcallpleasedontcallpleasedontcallpleasedontcallp leasedontcallpleasedon....)

Unless Giga posted that specifically for other competitors in this tourney to see...

Regards,
Woodguy

another way to look at it
 

I'm in the BB w/ J4. Folded to an aggressive SB who completes. I check my option.

We both have 120k and the blinds are 600-1200.

Flop is JT3.

He makes a pot sized bet of 2700. I raise to 7k straight w/ my top pair no kicker. He calls. I put him on a OESD draw, a jack, a ten, or garbage with the intention of moving me off the hand on the turn.

Pot is ~16k.

Turn is a 4h putting two hearts on board.

He bets 12k into me. I think my hand is definitely good now since it's hard for me to put him on a set w/ the lack of preflop raise (though JJ/TT is possible, but unlikely due to the largish flop bet), but I don't want to lose top pair, so I raise it to 30k with the intention of probably checking behind on the river.

He folds, he probably had some sort of T or a gutshot.

Re: another way to look at it
 

i'm liking it. I think gigabet out thought himself, MLG's line of calling and leading the river, looks like a good one.

Re: another way to look at it
 

i was going to do the same soss. nice.

i think the line he took + the fold is not good at all, for many of the reasons already mentioned in this thread and the other.

gigabets reply back that when he thinks he has the best hand he wants to get full value from it, or lose, is not proper justification in the least.

sometimes certain situations happen to lower the value of your hand, and you just need to accept that, and aim for getting that maximum value, even if it is lower than normal due to circumstances.

not getting to showdown in this hand is large mistake.

he was either thoroughly outlayed by dan harrington in this hand, or he overthought and outplayed himself like a donkey.

i find it funny how people are saying "Look at how much enormous strength dan is showing on the turn!".

do you not think a world class player is more than aware of this, and is likely the reason for it if he is making a play?

dan could be making this raise for a variety of reasons:

1-the aforementioned pulling a big move to fold out at least TP

2-he may think gigabet is simply making a move on him with a flop bluff-call and turn lead, and can easily make him fold air.

3-he thinks there is a chance he has the best hand, but does not want to call the turn and be faced with a very tough river decision after giving up the momentum on the turn, so he raises now to make the river play much easier.

besides all of that, it is not good to discount that if dan does indeed have 333 or 444, that he is going to always raise this turn. surely a certain % of the time he is going to call giga's turn lead and wait until the river.

fold no good.

Re: another way to look at it
 

I'm not that good, but if I flop top two, headsup, in an unraised pot when there are no straight or flush possibilities, i'm getting all the money in if I can. I think you're ahead here 90% of the time and 10% of the time he has 33. I would also disregard Dan saying he had a worse hand than top 2, he would never tell if he had 33 there. I can't imagine folding top 2 here.

Re: another way to look at it
 

[ QUOTE ]
i'm liking it. I think gigabet out thought himself, MLG's line of calling and leading the river, looks like a good one.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would reraise allin. If Harrington has something, he may call, and he is probably behind.

Alternatively, you could flat call and then check call or checkraise the river.

Of course, I wouldn't have played any part of this hand the way Gigabet did, probably because I am not as good a player.

Re: another way to look at it
 

Anyone put him on Qh9h?? With his stack size and position isn't this a reasonable range and play? Especially if he feels he is against a very aggressive player?? Isn't this the same Dan that tried to push Ivey off a 9 set with 73?

Re: another way to look at it
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would also disregard Dan saying he had a worse hand than top 2, he would never tell if he had 33 there.

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I agree. What Harrington says he had means nothing. He could have been ahead or been on a stone bluff. He also may not have believed Gigabet had top two.

Re: another way to look at it
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm in the BB w/ J4. Folded to an aggressive SB who completes. I check my option.

We both have 120k and the blinds are 600-1200.

Flop is JT3.

He makes a pot sized bet of 2700. I raise to 7k straight w/ my top pair no kicker. He calls. I put him on a OESD draw, a jack, a ten, or garbage with the intention of moving me off the hand on the turn.

Pot is ~16k.

Turn is a 4h putting two hearts on board.

He bets 12k into me. I think my hand is definitely good now since it's hard for me to put him on a set w/ the lack of preflop raise (though JJ/TT is possible, but unlikely due to the largish flop bet), but I don't want to lose top pair, so I raise it to 30k with the intention of probably checking behind on the river.

He folds, he probably had some sort of T or a gutshot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like raising the turn here with J4, but it's close. Any hand less than Jacks and Fours and I really hate raising the turn. (The reason J4 I only don't like a little is that J3 is a very real possibility for SB if he comes back over the top) The reasons I don't like it are:
<ul type="square"> [*]It makes the next action all in, and if SB pushes you have to call, but you really don't like it.[*]Most hands you are beating are laying down here if you raise, but may fire on the river if you call. SB likely has 5 outs or less if you are ahead (though I guess Jx [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] is possible if you don't have the J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] for 12 outs).[/list]
In other words, I don't think you get paid off by many hands you are beating since you are saying you are willing to play for all your chips here with your bet when you could have gotten to a showdown without putting a lot more chips in. OTOH, you get stacked by most better hands. If you had abosolutely nothing, I can see making this bet as a bluff against a good thinking opponent, and if you had a really big hand like a set I think you can make it and trap another good hand (and against a good thinking opponent like Gigabet, both of these or neither of these need to be in your repetoir). J4 is close to being big, but I really only see J3 or better continuing here if you raise. So if the only hands SB could have that continue are JT, J3, J4, or 33 (given the action), you are not in good shape against that range. OTOH, sb will likely fire again or at least pay off a river value bet with a hand like T3 (and maybe something like J8, but I am not so certain a hand like J8 leads this turn).

I am not sure how you rule out a set here. If you have a good read that there is no way sb has a set, then raising the turn in your scenario seems better, but I still think you are looking at 50% equity if you get called.

Also, the raise on the turn prices out draws, but offers a nice price for made hands. I really like the size of the turn raise. I could be wrong but I really think this is a very strong hand or a bluff. I'm repeating myself here, but I just think there is so much value in calling down with one (top after this action) pair and weaker two pair hands here that Dan is not raising those. Personally, I don't like raising JT in his spot since there just are not that many free cards that scare me, and position here rules (i.e. I will likely get another bet out of villain either by snapping off his bluff or value betting if he checks; if he is bluffing and gives up, oh well, but I think his most likely lines on the river are bet (fold) or check call if you check behind on the turn).

Re: another way to look at it
 

[ QUOTE ]


1-the aforementioned pulling a big move to fold out at least TP

2-he may think gigabet is simply making a move on him with a flop bluff-call and turn lead, and can easily make him fold air.

3-he thinks there is a chance he has the best hand, but does not want to call the turn and be faced with a very tough river decision after giving up the momentum on the turn, so he raises now to make the river play much easier.



[/ QUOTE ]
1,2 - I agree that Dan can be on complete air here. I think he has a very strong hand or nothing.

3 - He won't be facing a tough river decision. If he gets bet into on the river, it will most likey be in the neighborhood of how much his raise is for since the pot will be ~40K and stacks ~100K. That is why the bet looks so strong: Dan can play a pot that does not cripple him if he loses but elects to escalate. Dan and Giga understand this which is why it can be pure air, but I would think it is a big hand a lot more often, maybe 3 times as often (maybe more).