JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

Poker Network 1/2 10 handed

Hero is MP2 with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG+2 is loose passive with a pfr of 5%, af approx 0.6
MP1 is loose passive

PRE-FLOP
(2 folds), UTG+2 raises, MP1 calls, Hero 3-bets, (5 folds), UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

FLOP (3 players): 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10 SB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

TURN (3 players) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.5 BB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, MP1 calls.

RIVER (3 players) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (9.5 BB)
UTG+2 checks, MP1 checks, Hero ?

I know both of my opponents are passive, so if I get raised, it's an easy fold, in fact, most aces of theirs wil probably just call. Despite that, I'm still not convinced that there's value in a bet here. What's calling me that I beat? 99 and TT if the raiser raises that. Any 8 or 6 from the coldcaller. But shouldn't I expect to see Ax, KK, and QQ more often than makes a bet here profitable?

Does anyone's decision change if the action is the same on a Q or K river?

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

Bet this river if it's an Ace, King or Queen. You will get called by some pretty miserable cards. If you get checkraised, then your decision is read-dependent. Not betting this river is a hole in your game.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

definate value bet here, somebody MIGHT have an ace, but somebody is equally likely to call you with king high at party 1/2.
bet/fold

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

I think there is very little value in betting here. You have to be good around 35% of time, since you're risking 1BB to win 2BB, to warrant betting. I doubt this is the case.

I'm having trouble assigning both players calling hands, which we're beating. In my opinion, UTG alone is ahead a significant amount of the time when he calls. Here are my thoughts on his hand combos:

UTG possible holdings
Hands we're ahead of that call:
99 6 combos
TT 6 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind that call/raise
AA 3 combos
AK 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AJs 2 combos
QQ 6 combos
KK 6 combos
Total: 41 combos

I also think TT and 99 can be discounted a bit, (as can AA, KK and QQ) as he'd likely bet/raise the flop with these holdings. Therefore, against UTG alone we are behind ~75% of the time. Throw in MP and I'm quite confident a bet here is -EV. I know of very few players that will call with K-high, etc. and thus did not take this into account.

EDIT: It's argueable that UTG may bet with a pair of As on the river, and thus the A pair combos should be discounted quite heavily. Though I believe it is highly probable he check/calls these hands given our passive read and the scary board.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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I think there is very little value in betting here. You have to be good around 35% of time, since you're risking 1BB to win 2BB, to warrant betting. I doubt this is the case.

I'm having trouble assigning both players calling hands, which we're beating. In my opinion, UTG alone is ahead a significant amount of the time when he calls. Here are my thoughts on his hand combos:

UTG possible holdings
Hands we're ahead of that call:
99 6 combos
TT 6 combos
Total: 12 combos

Hands we're behind that call/raise
AA 3 combos
AK 12 combos
AQ 12 combos
AJs 2 combos
QQ 6 combos
KK 6 combos
Total: 41 combos

I also think TT and 99 can be discounted a bit, (as can AA, KK and QQ) as he'd likely bet/raise the flop with these holdings. Therefore, against UTG alone we are behind ~75% of the time. Throw in MP and I'm quite confident a bet here is -EV. I know of very few players that will call with K-high, etc. and thus did not take this into account.

EDIT: It's argueable that UTG may bet with a pair of As on the river, and thus the A pair combos should be discounted quite heavily. Though I believe it is highly probable he check/calls these hands given our passive read and the scary board.

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You have much flawed logic my friend. I'm afraid you don't have much of an understanding of typical Party players. In your "Hands we're ahead of that call," you have to include almost any pair. This is a clear easy value bet, and it's not even close.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

I am mostly afraid of UTG+2 since he raised preflop. However, loose passive players make you money because they call your value bets often. While my first instinct is to check, I feel like a bet/fold line is appropriate here. What sucks is against passive players lots of times they call with a good Ace and I feel duped because their lack of aggression didn't tip me off at any point. But, they make you money and it is a frustration that comes with the game.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

bets. The A is likely just as scary to them as it is to you.

and a b/f line needs to be very read dependant as this is a perfect bluff card. You have to figure both of them are sticking around with any piece or waiting for a fourth club. You will fold the club draw but get paid off from the guy holding a pp or an 8 or 6.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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The A is likely just as scary to them as it is to you.

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I think this is a reason against value betting, as it makes it less likely that an opponent will call with a worse hand. This might be different if the opponent had been betting the whole way then checked on the A, but both opponents having been checking the whole time anyway. I agree with the rest of your logic, though.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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I know both of my opponents are passive, so if I get raised, it's an easy fold,

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I don't think this is necessarily true. I've seen plenty of weird river bets and raises and this pot is big enough that it would be sinful to laydown the best hand. I don't think calling a raise is spewing here. The passive fishies can be unpredictable. A lot of times they are more likely to just call if they hit their Ace since they a) don't like their kicker, b) are afraid of the flush, c) some other random reason.

While there is usually value in the bet, against multiple opponents there is also value in checking and calling to snap off a bluff.

I will bet this river a lot, but I am usually calling a raise. I will check/call a fair percentage of the time.

I am never laying this down in a 10BB pot for a single bet on the end in the game you describe.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

I'd bet. Like you said you migh get a call from an 8 or 99 or TT. What would also be dandy is folding out KK or QQ.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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I know both of my opponents are passive, so if I get raised, it's an easy fold,

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I don't think this is necessarily true. I've seen plenty of weird river bets and raises and this pot is big enough that it would be sinful to laydown the best hand. I don't think calling a raise is spewing here. The passive fishies can be unpredictable. A lot of times they are more likely to just call if they hit their Ace since they a) don't like their kicker, b) are afraid of the flush, c) some other random reason.

While there is usually value in the bet, against multiple opponents there is also value in checking and calling to snap off a bluff.

I will bet this river a lot, but I am usually calling a raise. I will check/call a fair percentage of the time.

I am never laying this down in a 10BB pot for a single bet on the end in the game you describe.

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I would without a doubt fold to a raise. Just based on how the hand was played out, these opponents are not maniacs, and I don't think 10-1 is even close to the odds you would need to call a raise here. I've seen people bluff in this type of situation almost never, especially in a 3 handed pot. Also he cant check/call because he is closing the action.

BTW were you at Wizards on Tuesday? I was seat 5 playing from about 5pm-9pm.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

Seat 2 from about 6:15-7:30.
I thought that might be you.

I sat from about 9:30-11 as well but you had left by then.

No real memorable hands except for the guy whose A-high flush was cracked by the straight-flush on the last deal to qualify for High-hand (beating out the same guy's previous quad K's).

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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Seat 2 from about 6:15-7:30.
I thought that might be you.

I sat from about 9:30-11 as well but you had left by then.

No real memorable hands except for the guy whose A-high flush was cracked by the straight-flush on the last deal to qualify for High-hand (beating out the same guy's previous quad K's).

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That hand was incredible. Probably the worst beat I've ever seen especially because of the circumstances. The guy in seat 9 was on fire. Earlier, in a capped flop pot, he had bottom pair and caught runner runner Qs for top fullhouse to beat a flopped set.

I think the only hand we played was when i check raised you on the A high flop when you had KK. I should have just called.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

I know that I am in the minority here but I check on through. If the 1/2 at party is anything like 3/6 or 4/8 live. These players will play any suited ace and call to the river. I can EASILY see UTG+2 having AK, AQ, or AJ here and waiting for something good to happen. Especially if their A is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I don't think you are good enough here to make this a value bet. The Ace will also scare off any overcalls that you MIGHT of picked up. I bet the K or Q though. Not the Ace.


LLL

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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I know that I am in the minority here but I check on through. If the 1/2 at party is anything like 3/6 or 4/8 live. These players will play any suited ace and call to the river. I can EASILY see UTG+2 having AK, AQ, or AJ here and waiting for something good to happen. Especially if their A is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I don't think you are good enough here to make this a value bet. The Ace will also scare off any overcalls that you MIGHT of picked up. I bet the K or Q though. Not the Ace.


LLL

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Yes it is very POSSIBLE that someone has an ace here. You still need to bet here because people wil call with a lot less than an ace.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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I know that I am in the minority here but I check on through. If the 1/2 at party is anything like 3/6 or 4/8 live. These players will play any suited ace and call to the river. I can EASILY see UTG+2 having AK, AQ, or AJ here and waiting for something good to happen. Especially if their A is a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] I don't think you are good enough here to make this a value bet. The Ace will also scare off any overcalls that you MIGHT of picked up. I bet the K or Q though. Not the Ace.


LLL

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Yes it is very POSSIBLE that someone has an ace here. You still need to bet here because people wil call with a lot less than an ace.

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I understand. I think IN THIS CASE though it may not be a good Idea. What do you put UTG+2 on that raises preflop, plays this passively after the flop AND calls your bet when an Ace drops on the river?

LLL

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

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This may be my undoing. I would expect a reaonable player to check raise here with the ace.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

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This may be my undoing. I would expect a reaonable player to check raise here with the ace.

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At 1-2 I don't think too many people get tricky with one pair.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

I check this particular river; two passives, bottom card paired, an A on board and a three flush combined with the fact that original raiser ONLY raises 5% of his hands preflop makes this an EASY check! What hand does original preflop raiser raise that does not beat JJ and does not have at least one Ace in the hole? 1010 MAYBE (a true prayer). The reason he didnt bet his ace on the river is because he probably is not that good and the board is really scary for a passive who just hit his hand but could still be beat. He won't bet it, but he will call. Rarely will this player fold the winning hand on the river with the pot this size. Easy check! other dud might have anything including an Ace, trips or flush. If either player or both have busted draws (highly unlikely) they will fold and there is no value in that!

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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A lower pair.

Most players will lead an ace on the river if they have AQ or AK.

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Seriously? Don't you think they would be betting that flop if they had 99-KK? Even passive players know to bet with overpairs. And not a lot of people raise 77 or lower UTG+2. I think A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is very likely here, and they may not bet their one pair because they are scared of the flush or a higher kicker. If you can fold when check/raised, you need to be good somewhat more than 33% of the time, since it's not real likely that both will call this river, and I'm really not sure you are.

Certainly not betting this isn't a giant leak, like someone stated. It's certainly a bigger leak to misplay this by bet/folding a winner or bet/calling when behind. I'd want a good read on my opponents to consider betting this.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

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You have much flawed logic my friend. I'm afraid you don't have much of an understanding of typical Party players. In your "Hands we're ahead of that call," you have to include almost any pair. This is a clear easy value bet, and it's not even close.

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I agree it’s not even close, betting is clearly wrong here. When we assign our opponents hands based on basic hand reading skills it is blatantly obvious we are not ahead ~35% of the time.

"You have to include any pair" A loose/passive opponent is never raising 22-88 (even 99 is very questionable) pf from UTG. It seems like you're conveniently forgetting the preflop raise. I believe my possible holdings analysis is quite accurate, and you have given me no reason to believe otherwise.

In my opinion, this is a very clear check.

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

I think betting is absolutely crazy. You would have to be against the two worst players in the world for a bet here to have value. Anybody who has played holdem for more than a couple of weeks automatically puts the 3 bettor on an ace or a big pair, the ace was the worst card in the world as crappy pairs probably will not call. Meanwhile an ace is an extremely likely hand for your opponents to have (in fact if I had to put UTG+2 on a hand, Ax would be it.)

Re: JJ on river A vs two passives. Anyone value bet here?
 

While we will be called by worse hands here, i.e. 99, TT, pair of 8s, I think it's important to note that our opponents will not hold these hands enough times to justify betting.