55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

No reads, comments?

NL Texas Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:16624923 Level:1 Blinds(10/15) - Sunday, October 16, 01:34:37 EDT 2005
Table Table 67465 (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: Trumped_AA ( $930 )
Seat 2: bigb23 ( $1790 )
Seat 3: markoshark ( $1245 )
Seat 4: Abercorn111 ( $955 )
Seat 5: fractals ( $1205 )
Seat 6: Kazman047 ( $920 )
Seat 8: hero ( $955 )
Seat 9: barit50 ( $1155 )
Seat 10: MTWalker ( $845 )
Trny:16624923 Level:1
Blinds(10/15)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to hero [ 3d Kh ]
barit50 folds.
MTWalker folds.
Trumped_AA folds.
bigb23 calls [15].
markoshark folds.
Abercorn111 calls [15].
fractals folds.
Kazman047 calls [5].
hero checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, 5s, 3c ]
Kazman047 checks.
hero bets [50].
bigb23 raises [200].
Abercorn111 raises [600].
Kazman047 folds.
hero is all-In [890]

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

I play it the same, my feeling is that if someone has a set or better 2 pair, so be it.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

smells like trouble.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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smells like trouble.

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You need to be getting allin here, and it really isn't that tough of a decision. Think about their ranges, blah blah blah... you're fine here.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

What is Abercorns range here? AK and AA would probably have raised preflop. So what do we beat? KQ? Maybe KT-KJ? An OESD overagressively played? That is about it.

Hero might be good here but it's wrong to say it isn't a close decision.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

unless you have the specific read that either of them are set-peddlers this early in the game (i.e. they're playing 8 tables or something) I don't mind this. AK also raises PF.

However, the extremely dry flop, and the action with two people raising is pretty crazy. I might drop this with reads. If I see either of them on 3 or more tables, I turbo-muck

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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it really isn't that tough of a decision

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look at how dry that flop is. can you really give both guys KT/KJ/KQ, assuming AK always raises PF?

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

If I had a set, your T50 bet would scare me. I might raise it up to T200 thinkin you were on the OESD. Then, you've got a big raiser behind. Is he bluff-raising? Does he have KQ, KJ, or AK? At least one of those hands would prolly raise from CO.

I'm letting this big-blind special go unless you know abercorn is a donk.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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it really isn't that tough of a decision

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look at how dry that flop is. can you really give both guys KT/KJ/KQ, assuming AK always raises PF?

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The problem is that your argument goes both ways. You can't give him KK, and K5 and K3 are both unlikely given the action and probability. So we're left with 55 and 33, and two 3's are out. There are very few hands that beat you. Plus people are donks. They could easily have like 77 and KT respectively; obviously I'm using an extreme example to help my case, but you get the point. So little beats you here, there's no reason anyone would think you're that strong (note would, not should), and their range is bigger than people make it out to be.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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I turbo-muck

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I guess you're trying to make a point, but no f'ing way. You put him on 55?

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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The problem is that your argument goes both ways. You can't give him KK, and K5 and K3 are both unlikely given the action and probability. So we're left with 55 and 33, and two 3's are out. There are very few hands that beat you. Plus people are donks. They could easily have like 77 and KT respectively; obviously I'm using an extreme example to help my case, but you get the point. So little beats you here, there's no reason anyone would think you're that strong (note would, not should), and their range is bigger than people make it out to be.

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It seems like donks in the $55s tend to make themselves known preflop as opposed to postflop. It's tough to stay with this hand postflop with a big raise and then a big re-raiser.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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The problem is that your argument goes both ways. You can't give him KK, and K5 and K3 are both unlikely given the action and probability. So we're left with 55 and 33, and two 3's are out. There are very few hands that beat you. Plus people are donks. They could easily have like 77 and KT respectively; obviously I'm using an extreme example to help my case, but you get the point. So little beats you here, there's no reason anyone would think you're that strong (note would, not should), and their range is bigger than people make it out to be.

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It seems like donks in the $55s tend to make themselves known preflop as opposed to postflop. It's tough to stay with this hand postflop with a big raise and then a big re-raiser.

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I don't agree with your first statement at all. I don't really know why you'd say that. Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot. All I'm saying is give me a range for the raisers, not a range that they don't have. The range you'll come up with is so small that you'd have to be right a ridiculous amount of the time to make this a fold, which I don't think you will be considering the donkalicious [censored] that goes down, and legitimate hand combos you beat given the action.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

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What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

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What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

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Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

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What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

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Are you serious?

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

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What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

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Are you serious?

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Just try raising the pot in a pot limit game...

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.


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What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?


[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

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I'm confused then. How much is in the pot after this:

"Abercorn111 raises [600]."

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

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Just try raising the pot in a pot limit game...

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I'm just asking you to read the original post

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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I'm just asking you to read the original post

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I think he's too busy trying to slam me to read anything. That's what is cool about this site though. Everyone is a genius.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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Raises aren't big either, both are smaller than the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

What? Are we talking about the same hand here? I count a 200 raise into a 110 pot and then a 600 re-raise after that. What are you seing?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sigh... this just sucks... come on man, take five seconds to think about this... (hint: calls are in the pot when calculating raises)... everytime a thread gets going it gets stalled by someone who doesn't get pot odds or some other mundane concept... too bad...

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

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Just try raising the pot in a pot limit game...

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I'm just asking you to read the original post

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Sucks I have to write this out. 4 limps pf, the pot is t60. Hero bets out t50, first dude raises to 200... he first calls the bet, making the pot 160 and raises 150 more... < pot... the pot is now t310 and second dude calls the 200 making the pot t510 and raises 400 more... < pot...

Yeah, I'm just trying to slam you... that's why I wrote this all out... what a burn...

Disclaimer: If this is somehow wrong, I'm drunk, it's my birthday, and I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)... but this is right...

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)

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Hey, that's pretty cool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)

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Hey, that's pretty cool [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Haha, yeah, wow, that sucked without context. Kickass costume party earlier...

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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the pot is now t310 and second dude calls the 200 making the pot t510 and raises 400 more... < pot...


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OK. Difference in terminology. I would just say that the third guy bet 600 into a 310 pot. Anyways, those are still big bets, especially when hero only has T955.

I stand by my original post. Nobody ever posts these things when they win.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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I'm wearing a Scorpion costume (ya know from Mortal Kombat)... but this is right...

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My advice om this hand is FINISH HIM!
(poosh)

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

looks like a fold to me

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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looks like a fold to me

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I couldn't agree more.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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looks like a fold to me

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AHHHHHHHHHHH. Someone give them a hand. Are we seriously putting one of them on 55?

EDIT: To be a bit clearer, I understand the range of hands we beat here is small, but the range of hands that beat us is even smaller. There is just a small range of hands that do this on that board period, but we beat our fair share of them.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

We are up against a raise and a re-raise. With only 1 other player I'd probably call and hope they don't have trips, but with 2 players giving action this is very VERY dangerous.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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We are up against a raise and a re-raise. With only 1 other player I'd probably call and hope they don't have trips, but with 2 players giving action this is very VERY dangerous.

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I understand what you're saying. Your point is correct from that perspective. But it's deeper than that. Think about hand ranges. You are essentially putting someone squarely on 55 here. There are so many other combinations you can legitimately make for two hands that you beat.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

It is dangerous and there is probably a 50% chance or more you bust, but if you win, you triple up. It is very easy for either or both of them to have a King with a decent kicker and the fact that seals the deal is people like to limp AA preflop.

Edit: Besides, either of them are likely to want to call the flop with trips to get overcalls.

Edit again: Also, I see people doing crazy things like going broke with A4 here all the time.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

looks like a call, just based on the number of hand combinations they could have that beat you (as opposed to the hands you are beating).

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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It is dangerous and there is probably a 50% chance or more you bust, but if you win, you triple up. It is every easy for either or both of them to have a King with a decent kicker and the fact that seals the deal is people like to limp AA preflop.

Edit: Besides, either of them are likely to want to call the flop with trips to get overcalls.

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Some shaky logic there, but right idea. First of all we don't triple up because the guy in the middle doesn't call very often. We can triple up, but not definitely. The 50% bust figure is obviously just a guesstimate, but I think it's a bit high. The K with any kicker point is essentially what my argument hinges on, and while the aa one is a valid one, I think it's a fairly small factor in this hand. Your edit is a very nice point for the second raiser, less so for the first raiser because he may want to build a pot, but great point.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

Yeah, not necessarily tripling, but often a guy who raised to 200 will go for it.

As far as 50%, yeah, just a wild guess, and I think it's still +$EV regardless of what the guy who raised to 200 does.

Maybe in a $215 there aren't enough crazy people around to make this call, but at $55 I see crazy people every game.

Ok, Karak, results please
 

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Nobody ever posts these things when they win.

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Maybe he was ahead and got sucked out on.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

heres a crack at hand ranges and your equity:

I just don't see AK being limped in this situation, so I didn't enter it in this one:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

440,664 games 0.140 secs 3,147,599 games/sec

Board: Kd 5s 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.6651 % 37.41% 00.25% { Kh3d }
Hand 2: 22.6430 % 21.71% 00.94% { KK+, 55, 33, KTs+, KTo+ }
Hand 3: 39.6918 % 38.83% 00.86% { KK+, 55, 33, KQs, KQo }

--------

If we add AK, we look even better:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

679,056 games 0.188 secs 3,612,000 games/sec

Board: Kd 5s 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 41.3504 % 41.13% 00.22% { Kh3d }
Hand 2: 23.0366 % 21.90% 01.14% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }
Hand 3: 35.6129 % 34.52% 01.09% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, KQs, AKo, KQo }

------------

Here is one having taken KQ out of Abercorn's hand range:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

498,456 games 0.125 secs 3,987,648 games/sec

Board: Kd 5s 3c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 37.7365 % 37.57% 00.17% { Kh3d }
Hand 2: 19.5652 % 18.64% 00.93% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, KTs+, AKo, KTo+ }
Hand 3: 42.6983 % 41.87% 00.83% { KK+, 55, 33, AKs, AKo }

-------------

Am I missing any hands from these ranges, bearing in mind it's a 55 (read: I don't think we see K5 or A5 or something similarly silly here).

Anyway, it sure seems like a call. Of course, if you can definitely take KQ out of Abercorn's range, it's a lot closer.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

You can't just add in odd hands like A5 or A4 or A3 or 99 or JJ or just a complete bluff by either player with anything, because they won't be seen as often as legit or semi-legit hands, but you certainly see them sometimes in a $55.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

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You can't just add in odd hands like A5 or A4 or A3 or 99 or JJ or just a complete bluff by either player with anything, because they won't be seen as often as legit or semi-legit hands, but you certainly see them sometimes in a $55.

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Well then maybe it would just be worth adding like a Dan Harrington 10% bluff factor in there, which makes it a call (not an "obvious" one, but I still think it's a call).

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

I'm bumping this because I think there are some solid $55ers on either side of this and maybe someone will change their mind and maybe some new blood will offer opinions.

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

hey bigt

with the two players showing strength i dont feel comfortable putting in anymore hands than i must. to start, my hand is very vulnerable and so if im ahead i dont think im very far ahead; however, if im behind, im very far behind.

fuji

Re: 55: Donk donk, top and bottom pair, what do you think?
 

im not a 55er but im trying hard to think of what i would really do here. vs unknowns and no reads im still folding.