Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

This is Part Five of our second "Play a Hand with the Masters". If you haven't already contributed to Part One, Part Two, Part Three, and Part Four you should do so first.

Setup
$100+9 Party Poker MTT
Blinds 50/100
Hero is Gigabet
No strong read on villain

Stacks

Hero: t2670
Villain: 2915

Pre-Flop
Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

UTG folds. Hero raises to t275. All fold to the BB who calls.

Flop
Pot: t600

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

BB checks. Hero bets t300. BB raises to t600. Hero calls t300.

Turn
Pot: t1800

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB bets t800. Hero calls t800.

River
Pot: t3400

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

Do you check or bet? If you bet, how much and why?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Yes I would move allin. It's not possible for our opponent to have QTo and decide to check the river unless he's a bad player, because he knows we will bet every single hand that beats him and check some that don't, yet call with almost everything.

Basically when the pot is this huge, our opponent will bet any hand that stands to be the best, because he knows we are pot committed. It's very difficult to put them on a hand that can beat AK here.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Mooooooooo donk has like Ax or KQ

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Obviously any bet will commit us, and with the size of the pot I can't imagine any other bet than allin. So the question is if there is value in betting. We are not going to get a better hand to fold, every full house, flush (although QTd is the only possible flush hand I see), straight is calling us, so we have no folding equity. Since we can't be raised after this bet it only needs to win 51% of the time that it is called to be +EV. The range of calling hands I would put BB on (that have made it this far) would be AJ, KJ, QT, JJ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AT. Although I dont see villian checking the river with a full house, so I'd eliminate JJ, KK, AA, AJ, KJ from his calling range. That leaves QT vs AQ, AT and AK is a chop. Theres 16 ways to make QT and 16 ways to make AQ or AT. So that leads me to the conclusion that it really doesnt matter either way in terms of chipEV, but throwing in the possibility that he is getting cute with a FH, and if a decision is neutral I'm taking the one that leaves me with some chips, I check behind.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I think there is very little chance that QT checks the river.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Fantastic, we've turned down value twice in this hand now and now we have to deal with a serious scare card. We no longer beat KJ, AJ, QJ, TJ, or, of course, 2 diamonds.

The good news is, villain checked.

From the villain's perspective, I can't imagine how Hero seems anything but weak at this point so this seems like a very strange place to go for a check raise (unless he reads Hero as being so weak, he doesn't see himself getting money out of him on the river unless it is on a bluff).

Villain may well be checking with a weak flush which beats us, or A10 which we beat handily. However, I don't know, because Hero has done a bad job of applying the kind of pressure that makes a villain reveal his holdings.

I check here. If I lost and got sucked out on or won but missed some value, I have no one to blame but myself.
If I lost and was beat the whole way, I still don't see that as vindicating the way the hand was played, Hero had position and a good hand, but let the villain take the driver's seat the whole way.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I don't think we can bluff out a hand that beats us, or get a hand to call us that we have beat with a value bet. I check and am happy if we win.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I push.

Big Pot, I assume he calls with a huge range including weak aces hoping that he now chops.

I'm guessing two diamonds, a straight, or a jack push here thinking the same thing (big pot other guy must call)

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I check behind. Although the J is unlikely to have helped villian as he would have bet it, there is still a chance that he might feel he is inducing a bet from us by checking. The J of diamonds is one of the worst cards for our hand. The pot is huge already, we are WAWB, just check and see.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Was about to write "easy push" when I decided to think about it. Let's say villain calls a push here with AQ (8), AT (8), AJ (4), KJ (6), QJs (2)(to allow for the chance that villain played this oddly), TQ (16), KQs (2)(again, to allow for weird villain), AA(1),KK(1),JJ(1). That means we're behind his calling range and should check [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img].

Anyone got a range that calls us here that we beat? Do you think villain has KQ or KT frequently enough to make a push here profitable?

Edit: I forgot the fact hat villain checked. I doubt he does this with a boat or a straight. I push.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

This guy has played it strangely throughout, so I don't know what to make of this check. Trips suddenly scared of the flush? (JT, maybe?) A slow-played str8 scared of the flush? This card certianly made him sad.

The question is whether we have any FE, becasue I can't believe that we're still ahead. (What exaclty are we ahead of at this point? AQ, AT, QQ, TT...) Of course he only has to fold 1/3 or so of the time for this to be a good push, so MOOOOO!

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

No halfway reasonable opponent would check the river to induce a bet when you have 900 chips left and the pot contains about 3500-4000!!

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I pushed a long long time ago.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I think the str8 might check.

Theres little chance of him folding to your push and the way the hand has played out im not so sure we have the best hand anymore so I dont want to value bet.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Yeah and why exactly would the straight check? It makes absolutely zero sense to check a straight on the river because the straight knows we would have called with many worse hands and that we will bet every single better hand after their check.

If your opponent checks QT there with the intention of calling, then they are just a total idiot. I'm sorry I'm not playing this hand under the assumption that my opponent is this bad at poker, if you want to then be my guest.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I pushed a long long time ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol... a lot of us did. What would you do now?

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I think that by this point I am just too confused. In the hand, I'd probably push with top two pair. However, thinking about it, I don't think that he calls with much that we have beat, maybe AQ/T. KJ, QT, AJ are also likely, so I probably check behind. I've still got enough chips to come back. I don't think that he calls with anything that we beat except AQ/T. I think that he too often has us beat. However, my gut says KQ or AQ.

Will

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I possibly break down in tears. Maybe punch the wall. Seriously though, I push here yet again, villain checking with intention to call is pretty bad play on his part with anything he is willing to call with that he thinks may be good here, considering the pot size and how much we have left. However, I wouldn't exactly be the least bit surprised if we WERE behind here, perhaps getting sucked out on on the river, which is irrelevant. I would love to see commentary and thought process on each street from giga, but I think calling on the turn was pretty bad if we were going to get our chips in on any river. Villain was just as committed to the pot after his bet on turn as he was after seeing river for no additional price, so there was no real reason not to push the turn.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

His river check means we have him beat, so move all-in. Man, I really don't like how this hand was played at all.

Preflop raise was fine, flop bet was a little small, but ok, hero really should have moved in after the check raise, and if that doesn't happen, definately on the turn.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

It is an interesting situation.

You: 1000
BB: 1250
Pot: 3400

check and win, 4400. Check and lose 1000. Push and get called, 5400, push and lose, 0. So... how much should we risk for a possible 22% gain in stack size? I'm always a fan of value betting to death, but I think this is a situation to check down. What hands does he check here with? QJ, JT seem like very viable options. QT, not so much because he SHOULD push that because anything that beats QT WILL push, but many other hands call a push from QT. Really, I only see QJ, JT and a variety of 2nd best hands checking here. So, what second best hands can call here? AX seems like the only one to me. That's not that many hands. Does Ax play like this on earlier streets though? Actaully, I believe drawing hands like QJ and JT play it like this more often than Ax. So... based solely on intuition and thought (no actual math), I give us about 55% equity here vs. a hand that calls us. I don't think that is enough in this situation where it is a 25% gain or 100% loss. I check this down and curse my W/T instincts when he turns over AT.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind. Although the J is unlikely to have helped villian as he would have bet it, there is still a chance that he might feel he is inducing a bet from us by checking. The J of diamonds is one of the worst cards for our hand. The pot is huge already, we are WAWB, just check and see.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the river, you are always WAWB

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

We've been a calling station all along since the flop, so there's really no reason villian wouldn't bet into us with a winning hand here, considering the pot odds would be out of this world had he bet.

But the river J is really bad news. AJ and KJ that we potentially could have been ahead of just made it. QT is not going to fold to a bet here.

The only hand we have a potential for folding here is another AK. And even that is doubtful.

I guess I'm just not sofisticated enough to understand the depths of this hand. But at this point we're left with less than 1,000 in chips, and that's just not good enough to continue on. We just need to win 25% of the times to make this a correct push. So that's what I'm going to do, in the faint hope of making villain fold AK.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I'm going to advocate checking back here:

a. Giga has no read on villain, so villain may very well be either a super tricky player OR just not a good one.

b. 900 chips left if you check back. at 25/50 blinds, you still have the opportunity to do some manuevering on a flop or two. Double up once or go on a mini-rush, and you still have a chance.

c. I believe that the only way our villain calls an all-in is if he hit his boat with AJ OR if he was just uber dumb and hit a set with KJ. Giga has very little to gain here - about a 30% chance of a call with his hand being best and a 75 to 80% chance of losing the hand if it is not best (I'll give 20% benefit of doubt that Villain has KJ and is now afraid of the flush).

4. If Villain was so committed, he would probably fire away beforehand anyway. Maybe he'd try to use the river J as a scare card against Giga, hope that Giga is tight/weak enough to fold the best hand in the eye of a potential flush and/or full house. Checking here is basically saying that he is giving up the hand OR that he is trapping Giga.

Check the sucker down. If you have the best hand, take the nice pot and reverse your style of play the next time you hit soemthing similiar.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

this hand sucked imo, ill look for one for next week to make this a little more interesting.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Ok maybe it sucked, but Gigabet played every street completely different than almost every pro here would have played it. Either Giga played it like a moron, or it's at least somewhat interesting.

Stop insulting the hand for being boring and at least insult Gigabet for playing it strangely or something, which is what everyone is basically doing when they say this hand is boring and obvious and have suggested a different course of action than the hero on every street.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I dont think it makes much of a difference anyway *yawn*.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

In the words of strassa2, "*yawn*, push"

He obviously would expect a call if he put us all in, so by checking he obviously isn't sure if he's ahead (in other words, he can't beat AK). But he will most definitely be calling with anything half decent when we bet. Checking is awful.

Everett

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

[ QUOTE ]

Ok maybe it sucked, but Gigabet played every street completely different than almost every pro here would have played it. Either Giga played it like a moron, or it's at least somewhat interesting.

Stop insulting the hand for being boring and at least insult Gigabet for playing it strangely or something, which is what everyone is basically doing when they say this hand is boring and obvious and have suggested a different course of action than the hero on every street.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you. I've been biting my tounge but what you have said is so right on. The reality is that Gigabet is one of the top players around (not just in 2+2 but anywhere). The fact that this hand was played so differently than what most people recommend should suggest that there is something more to it. Perhaps, just perhaps, there are alternative ways to playing (and thinking about) what many people consider a routine hand.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

[ QUOTE ]
Checking is awful.


[/ QUOTE ] how so?
the only hands we are beating now are AT,AQ,KT,KQ, and chop with AK but villian did play the hand very strange with his river check so maybe he is weak and will call a push when we have him beat. i wouldve pushed the turn FWIW.

edit-villian could have A9 OR A8 that we have beat or maybe A7 and he got counterfeited on river

he probaly had A7

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I was right

Now you can push though.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Terrible check by villain. Hero value bets T500.

The time for slowplaying is over, so villain has telegrahed that he does not have:
A full house
A flush
A str8 - because AK,AQ is definitely in hero's range and hero will pay off.
A set - because AK,AQ is definitely in hero's range and hero will pay off.
AK - because AK,AQ is definitely in hero's range and AQ will pay off.

That leaves villain with AQ,AT,KQ,and a weak ace. I think villain has AQ as he has been playing it like it might have been the best hand all along.

Hero is ahead. Given the huge number of hands that beat villain, and the fact that hero has shown strength throughout the hand, villain probably has expectations of only splitting the pot in the best case, and will NOT call a push by hero. Then again the check on the river is so terrible anything is possible.

Villain has T1340 chips left. He will call T500 getting ~4:1 to split the pot and win ~T2000. He will also have a workable short stack with T840 left if he loses.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

my point is that in most cases it doesnt matter exactly what variation of possible lines hero takes after the flop, the end result will most likely be the same.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I called the turn with the intention of checking/calling the river, so I check.

The Shadow

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

locutus i really dont understand alot of ur points in some of ur posts, t500 and allin are almsot identical, if villian is going to call 500 he will call allin

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

allin


on a side note, I imagine it is difficult to find hands with decisions on every street with this shallow stacks, 27bb's. Maybe people critisizing this hand are simply looking for a deeper stack hand?

I, for one, have enjoyed this hand. Most tourneys, online or not, quickly become short stacked games and I welcome analysis of these situations.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I believe that villain's check is the equivalent to surrendering the hand, because he cannot do better than split the pot.

If hero pushes then villain will get 2.4:1 to call T900 and win T2150 (1/2 the pot). He will have T440 left, an unworkable stack.

If hero bets T500 then villain will get 3.9:1 to call T500 to win T1950 (1/2 the pot), and have T840 left. A short stack with a little game left.


I see a big difference from villain's point of view, but you may be right about the T500 vs. T900.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

I'd push. If a weak ace calls thinking he'll chop then great, if villain makes a Helmuthian lays down with AK or the straight because he thinks he's beat to a flush/boat then fabulous.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Wow, poker would be so much easier if they let us un-push twice.

Since I got to do that here, I check, and expect to be pushing my ~800 left again in the next few hands.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

It's a trap ! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
It's a trap ! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
It's a trap ! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
It's a trap ! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
It's a trap ! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
It's a trap ! [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check.

Re: Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River
 

Well finally Gigabet does something that i wouldn't have done..
I think i check behind here, just doestn look like we're going to end up with the best hand often enough. And the hands that fold to this bet we have beat anyway.