Flop is all red
 

To pass the time a funny guy in the game started running a "casino" where you give him $1 before the cards were dealt and declare a color. If the flop was all that color he gave you $8 back. Just curious who had the +EV here..

thx... BB

Re: Flop is all red
 

Is the funny guy's first name "Party" and his last name "Poker"?

He does. (26/52) * (25/51) * (24/50) = 11.77%

Re: Flop is all red
 

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Is the funny guy's first name "Party" and his last name "Poker"?

He does. (26/52) * (25/51) * (24/50) = 11.77%

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Really, that depends on who's playing, and what the game is.

Re: Flop is all red
 

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Is the funny guy's first name "Party" and his last name "Poker"?

He does. (26/52) * (25/51) * (24/50) = 11.77%

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Really, that depends on who's playing, and what the game is.

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how so?

Re: Flop is all red
 

[ QUOTE ]
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Is the funny guy's first name "Party" and his last name "Poker"?

He does. (26/52) * (25/51) * (24/50) = 11.77%

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Really, that depends on who's playing, and what the game is.

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how so?

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Re: Flop is all red
 

even bet. odds are 8 to 1 if you pick black or red of it coming true

Re: Flop is all red
 

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even bet. odds are 8 to 1 if you pick black or red of it coming true

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Idiot.

Re: Flop is all red
 

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even bet. odds are 8 to 1 if you pick black or red of it coming true

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[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: Flop is all red
 

what is it than smart guy?

Re: Flop is all red
 

what are the chances then?

Re: Flop is all red
 

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even bet. odds are 8 to 1 if you pick black or red of it coming true

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First, even if every card was 50/50 (they're not), the odds would be 7 to 1 not 8 to 1. OP was getting 8 for 1 (7:1).

Second, the answer is already in the thread.

Re: Flop is all red
 

Already been answered but... it's an 8 to 1 payout for 8.5 to 1 odds.

Re: Flop is all red
 

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Already been answered but... it's an 8 to 1 payout for 8.5 to 1 odds.

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8 for 1 payout for ~ 8.5 for 1 odds.

Re: Flop is all red
 

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how so?

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You can make descisions that affect whether there is a flop after seeing the hole cards.

Re: Flop is all red
 

ok, 100/11.77 is 8.50. I forget what exactly this means. It's 7.5 to one, isn't it? (Suppose there was a 50% chance. 100/50 is 2, and the odds are 1:1 (subtract one). 33% same thing, you get 3, subtract one and get 2:1. So why aren't our odds 7.50 to one here and this is a profitable bet (assuming decisions must be made before flop cards)

i'm probably missing something dumb, it's early

Re: Flop is all red
 

More specifically:
Let's say you get 10 players to collude in some variety of an Omaha SNG. Now, everyone bets on the red option. Then you count the total number of red cards in players' hands. If the number of red cards that has already been dealt is 19 or less, then the flop bet is profitable, and you should see the flop. Otherwise, simply fold to the big blind so the flop is never shown.

My calculations show that the EV per hand dealt for this game is a whopping $1.288 per $1 bet.

Now, in a sit-and-go, a team of 10 could reasonably expect to have all ten players see 50-70 hands, and party poker allows each player to bet $10 on the flop side bet per hand. So, that's an expected winning of $144 per player, accounting for the $1 spent on tournament entry.

Of course, PartyPoker allows audience members to bet as well...

Re: Flop is all red
 

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ok, 100/11.77 is 8.50. I forget what exactly this means. It's 7.5 to one, isn't it? (Suppose there was a 50% chance. 100/50 is 2, and the odds are 1:1 (subtract one). 33% same thing, you get 3, subtract one and get 2:1. So why aren't our odds 7.50 to one here and this is a profitable bet (assuming decisions must be made before flop cards)

i'm probably missing something dumb, it's early

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Because OP was getting 8 for 1, which is the same as 7:1.

Re: Flop is all red
 

LOL. Why would any 'casino' offer an even money bet? So they can break even at the end of the year? Even without doing the math you should know the answer is that the odds against are worse than the payout using common sense. The math just confirms it.

Re: Flop is all red
 

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LOL. Why would any 'casino' offer an even money bet? So they can break even at the end of the year? Even without doing the math you should know the answer is that the odds against are worse than the payout using common sense. The math just confirms it.

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Casinos will offer +EV bets to get people in the doors. For example, Blackjack pays 3 for 1 was apparently a popular promotion for a while.

Re: Flop is all red
 

7.5 to 1 odds AGAINST hitting.

8 to 1 odds FOR hitting.

Isn't this plus EV?

edit: I'm not trying to be dense here, i'm seriously confused about the "for" and "to" distinction. When I do the math it says the odds for the 11.77% chance is 7.5 to 1. and he is getting paid 8 dollars for 1 dollars (which is 8 to 1, isn't it? We call a half-pot bet giving us 3-1 odds, we can win 3 and lose one, in this case we can win 8 and lose 1, so it's 8-1)

what the heck am I missing here?

Re: Flop is all red
 

Hm, duh (?). i think i didn't understand that you win back ONLY 8 dollars and not NINE dollars (your dollar PLUS 8 more)

so you are really getting 7-1 on a 7.5-1 shot. right?

Re: Flop is all red
 

Right.

Re: Flop is all red
 

This thread is played out of course, but I just wanted to point out that you could solve this with logic and very elementary math, such that you could have figured it quickly at the table.

If there were an infinite number of cards, equally split between black and red, the odds of getting three straight reds would be 1/8 ((1/2)^3). So you're getting 7-to-1 on 7-to-1, or 8-for-1 on 8-for-1, or whatever. Neutral EV. Because we're playing with a 52-card deck however, not an infinite deck, the odds of each successive red card will be slightly less than 50/50, and our odds will be slightly less than 1/8. Hence a slightly -EV bet.

Re: Flop is all red
 

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This thread is played out of course

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Nonsense.

What all you 'math' guys DON"T GET is that Party can easily rig their blackjack to make more money. There is no BlackjackTracker. If they nudge their edge up a little past what they have already, they make a TON more money instead of having TAGs cash it out.

Wake up and smell the coffee people. And spread the word [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Flop is all red
 

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What all you 'math' guys DON"T GET is that Party can easily rig their blackjack to make more money.

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I believe we GET it. I don't play online 21 -- not because I believe it's rigged, but because it can't be beat using conventional play. PP could just as easily foil any poker tracker by introducing bogus players and other methods. B&M games can be compromised by misuse of surveillance equipment, etc.

Do you have reason to suggest they can't be trusted? That the official play-of-the-game explanation is less than honest?

They have a lot to lose, and I doubt they would resort to manipulation over an honest change of the rules. It would be really stupid -- but I'm interested in what you know.