88
 

Edit: No stats on villain.

My effective position was 2 seats later than normal because of a couple of empty chairs, not that it matters to you aggies who'll raise 88 UTG. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (8 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. CO posts a blind of $5.
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO (poster) calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (7.70 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero . . .

Re: 88
 

I'd call this turn. His 3-bet PF could be a bigger PP, but it could also be AK/AQ with one big spade. He'd 3-bet the flop with the A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] unless he's passive, but I don't like raising because you can't really fold to a 3-bet with ~4 outs to beat A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Ax.

Call, and then fold a spade river, call a non-spade river, and raise a non-spade 5 or 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

Re: 88
 

Thank you. My analysis exactly, with the exception of calling a non-spade non-8 non-5 river. Call again in the face of continued aggression? My plan was to fold the river UI if he followed up. Does that make my turn call incorrect?

Is the only reason I call a non-spade, and presumably non-ace non-king, river the fact that the suited board might indicate ramming the nut-flush draw? What about 2 spades on the flop? What about rainbow?

Re: 88
 

Does everyone raise this flop? I probably don't, FWIW.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
My plan was to fold the river UI if he followed up. Does that make my turn call incorrect?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, calling in the hopes of spiking a 5 or 8 only is okay, since you're getting 9:1 on the turn call. But I'd still call the river because you'll be getting 11:1 once he bets the river. Is there a 9% chance that your hand is good? Probably, so I'd call. Most of the time his river bet means you're toast, but that 1-in-11 chance that he's trying to push you off with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Kx that never got there is enough to get me to call.

[ QUOTE ]
What about 2 spades on the flop? What about rainbow?

[/ QUOTE ]

I used to fold the turn in all of these spots -- monotone, 2-flush, and rainbow -- but a lot of respected SS posters have encouraged me to never fold an overpair against an unknown. I still find that a bit too loose a strategy, but it could be correct.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
Does everyone raise this flop? I probably don't, FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to get CO to fold a low singleton spade if BB has no spade. Plus, I have an overpair to the board, so yeah I raise the flop.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does everyone raise this flop? I probably don't, FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to get CO to fold a low singleton spade if BB has no spade. Plus, I have an overpair to the board, so yeah I raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. I think it's kinda close. I don't think the sort of CO who will hold a low singleton spade is folding very often here for one or two bets, FWIW. I definitely think it's happening sometimes but combined with how often BB has you in a bad place already (single spade overcards &amp; overpairs) I'm not sure that it's really worth it.

I dunno. I think it's close, I'm mulling it over right now. Right now I'm considering folding the flop.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the sort of CO who will hold a low singleton spade is folding very often here

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that the CO is also posting blind. He got trapped in the hand PF and is probably begging for an excuse to get out.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's close, I'm mulling it over right now. Right now I'm considering folding the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah I hate the colour boards. I'd consider folding to a flop 3-bet also.

JT [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Does everyone raise this flop? I probably don't, FWIW.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd like to get CO to fold a low singleton spade if BB has no spade. Plus, I have an overpair to the board, so yeah I raise the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bahing, gaho. I might not have raised headsup. But then again I might have.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I don't think the sort of CO who will hold a low singleton spade is folding very often here

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't forget that the CO is also posting blind. He got trapped in the hand PF and is probably begging for an excuse to get out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know that CO posted a blind, but people aren't calling with 100% random trash there. The big thing is in this situation, CO being behind you may not be reason enough to raise with the range of hands that BB can have here. I'm torn between all three options here, but I don't know if BB leads A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] here very often.

Your equity is pretty shitty on this flop 3-ways, but it doesn't improve that much by folding out CO, especially given the range of hands CO can be having anyway. You're only going to save yourself the pot when A) a 4-flush comes in, B) BB has overcards without a spade, and C) CO will actually fold whatever [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he's holding.

Rob

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
You're only going to save yourself the pot when A) a 4-flush comes in, B) BB has overcards without a spade, and C) CO will actually fold whatever [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he's holding.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree at all. CO could have as many 15 outs to beat me that he would be more than willing to fold given the prospect of being trapped between aggressors with this dangerous board. Can he call with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, for example?

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You're only going to save yourself the pot when A) a 4-flush comes in, B) BB has overcards without a spade, and C) CO will actually fold whatever [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] he's holding.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree at all. CO could have as many 15 outs to beat me that he would be more than willing to fold given the prospect of being trapped between aggressors with this dangerous board. Can he call with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] here, for example?

[/ QUOTE ]

He's not folding with T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 100% of the time. He's not calling two with it 100% of the time either.

But you've got the BB to be legitimately concerned about too, right?

I think if your plan involves spending 3.5BB on this hand, your plan probably needs some modifying. I'm strongly leaning toward folding the flop right now, reverse-implied-odds style, but maybe raising is better. I'm just interested in discussing it because I don't think raising is clear cut, largely because you've got to be worried enough about BB here that raising to fold out CO won't necessarily be to your advantage.

I dunno. I'm gonna mull this one over. I'm leaning toward a flop fold, despite how that feels weak as hell.

Rob

Re: 88
 

I see your point, but my plan was not actually to invest 3.5BB. I was investing 2, possibly 3 SB on the flop to protect and find out where I was. Had most cards come on the turn I was folding. But the turn gave me 3 extra outs that I figured were just enough to squeak out a call given the chance that I was actually ahead combined with my 4 clean outs to beat Ax A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] getting 9:1.

But I can't say I'd criticize anyone for folding this scary ass flop and moving on to the next hand.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see your point, but my plan was not actually to invest 3.5BB. I was investing 2, possibly 3 SB on the flop to protect and find out where I was. Had most cards come on the turn I was folding. But the turn gave me 3 extra outs that I figured were just enough to squeak out a call given the chance that I was actually ahead combined with my 4 clean outs to beat Ax A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] getting 9:1.

But I can't say I'd criticize anyone for folding this scary ass flop and moving on to the next hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right now, I'm torn between calling the flop to see A) what CO does and B) what BB does on the turn and simply folding the flop. I'm pretty sure -- especially if you're calling a flop 3-bet and calling a gutshot-giving turn card -- that both of those are better than raising.

Rob

Re: 88
 

Hmm. I'm not really liking my positions here.

I'm saying that I'm raising the flop to protect, but I'm going to fold the turn unimproved? WTF?

I need to think about this more.

Re: 88
 

[ QUOTE ]
Right now, I'm torn between calling the flop to see A) what CO does and B) what BB does on the turn and simply folding the flop. I'm pretty sure -- especially if you're calling a flop 3-bet and calling a gutshot-giving turn card -- that both of those are better than raising.

Rob

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought at first about calling the flop too, but then what do you do on the turn? Raise with a great card like this? If he does have the As he's not folding, and if he already has you beat then you've put in 2 more BB for nothing.