sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

So my brother and me were talking about this hand.. and we couldn't figure it out.. so i came here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Basics:
1. Farha has 22,000 chips approx. and uknown has 10,000 chips approx.
2. Uknown makes it 1,000 to go when blinds are 25-50 (20x the BB) hes in EP (he makes it fairly obvious he has AA/KK)
3. sammy calls in MP with 33

Normally you would call a normal raise with a small pocket pair and hope to catch a set or maybe just sneak in MP/LP with a call. There are a lot of ways to play medium pocket pairs.. im not here to discuss that.

What im wondering is do u think sammy's call was correct? The way sammy plays.. it probably was fine in his eyes...

The question to everyone who doesn't see like every flop like sammy does, is was this an ok play?

Some of the points that we stated are as follows:
although the preflop odds are 7.5-to-1 against flopping a set... assuming farha knows(he probably does know..) that this idiot(is he?) just told everyone he has AA or KK. Farha called about 5% of his stack to try and connect on a 7.5-1 chance he would flop a set... assuming farha wouldnt call another bet after the flop... since the guy did bet fairly large(maybe pot size? or 75% of the pot.. i dont remember..) So implied odds come into play here because the unknown is most likely not folding his aces to any flop with a small exception to like 10JQ all suited and not his suit. So sammy put in 1,000 chips to win 10,000 chips i think.. and in my opinion i think his play was fine with me... because not only does he know what the unknown is holding.. he has the right implied odds to make the call... Anyone else add on anything here or correct some stuff?

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

I thought Sammy had 33? I thought it was a bad call but I guess that's Sammy's style.

If you think about it, Sammy fell right into the guys trap...but the poker gods would have none of that.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

sam is a fish

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

But what about the implied odds here?

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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I thought Sammy had 33? I thought it was a bad call but I guess that's Sammy's style.

If you think about it, Sammy fell right into the guys trap...but the poker gods would have none of that.

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that was a pretty easy call by sammy so long as he had the read that the guy would go broke w/ AA-QQ on a ragged flop.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

sidenote: if you ever watch the Travel Channel's Vegas shows, that was the guy who claims to be an expert video poker player, and knows all the odds. He's written some gambling books. I'm sure someone remembers his name, but I don't...

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

I doubt Sammy makes that call if he does not double up on the first hand. I was actually somewhat impressed with Sammy's game. Altho, I am not sure I'd play 33 and 92s. The funny thing was how honest he was with the table about his holdings.

I thought Daniel N. had some awesome laydowns too.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

[ QUOTE ]
sidenote: if you ever watch the Travel Channel's Vegas shows, that was the guy who claims to be an expert video poker player, and knows all the odds. He's written some gambling books. I'm sure someone remembers his name, but I don't...

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i've seen it. his on a bunch of shows about gambling on the travel channel. his name is stanely wong or steven lee or some sh1t like that.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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I doubt Sammy makes that call if he does not double up on the first hand. I was actually somewhat impressed with Sammy's game. Altho, I am not sure I'd play 33 and 92s. The funny thing was how honest he was with the table about his holdings.

I thought Daniel N. had some awesome laydowns too.

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He was honest but they don't know that, he could be saying he had the best hand every damn time since he wasn't showing them. Of course in these cases he did have the best hand. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

Sam Farha's call is perfect, when you consider the situation:

1) Farha has plenty of chips, having doubled up earlier. Survival isn't a concern when making this call.

2) Opponent has just made a ridiculously large raise - it is nearly certain he makes this play only because he's scared of being sucked out on, and he has AA or KK. Given that we know this, the reverse implied odds are huge - the opponent may as well has flipped his cards over for us.

3) An opponent who makes such a foolishly large raise is likely to make another foolish play and put all his money in on the flop.

Given these factors, Farha is likely getting 10-1 on his money when looking at the implied odds; when he hits his 3 (about 7.5-1 against), his opponent will almost always go broke. Given this, his call is a smart play in my book.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
sidenote: if you ever watch the Travel Channel's Vegas shows, that was the guy who claims to be an expert video poker player, and knows all the odds. He's written some gambling books. I'm sure someone remembers his name, but I don't...

[/ QUOTE ]

i've seen it. his on a bunch of shows about gambling on the travel channel. his name is stanely wong or steven lee or some sh1t like that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Anthony Curtis...a former BJ card counter.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

I see your points about implied odds. I agree.

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the reverse implied odds are huge

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But I don't understand this one.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

Sammy's call was decent simply because he had 20,000. But that guy did not need to raise 1,000. That is a ridiculous overbet, even with two Aces. Whatever happened to a standard raise?

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

wow, you really are a donkey huh. Sam knew what he had (AA/KK) and called with implied odds to try to flop a set and bust the guy. To say he fell into a trap is ignorant. He was hoping to spike a set and bust the guy, or else just fold and be done with it. He knew he wasnt shead at all but also knew if a three came he would win 9k more. Putting in 1K to win 9K with a 8-1 shot of hitting his set, and a 0% chance of losing any more chips if he misses is barely falling into a trap.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

arnt reverse implied odds a bad thing??????


i dont mind sammys call neway because he had implied odds

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

By overraising as he did, Curtis was essentially announcing to the world that he had KK or better. Even a total noob would know that.

Sammy, having position and being an excellent post-flop player, knew that he was only a 4.5 to 1 dog against these hands. Since he probably thought the opponent would be pot committed he probably counted his entire stack in his implied odds number crunch. Since it was very early in the tournament, he was probably getting 8 to 1 or so. The only kind of board that would keep his opponent from being pot committed would be something along the lines of a 4 to a straight flush of other than his suits on fourth street. Otherwise, he's in for all he's got.

Another benefit which I'm sure Sammy recognized was that with three times more chips at the outset, he would then be able to bully the table, a practice he has mastered.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

reverse implied odds only come into play if he was to continue after the flop without making a set on the flop, because reverse implied odds take into consideration bets you will have to call on later streets to make your hand. I am sure his plan was to see the flop for 1k with the chance to make 9k more if he hits his set, and if not to get out, and if that is the case there are no reverse implied odds, just implied odds.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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arnt reverse implied odds a bad thing??????


i dont mind sammys call neway because he had implied odds

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The reverse implied odds became huge when unknown "announced" his hand with AA. Remember, he also led out with a bet of 6K on that flop. Sammy probably isn't calling with TPTK here, just a set or better, though 2 pair would probably call here as well.

The bet is 6K, leaving unkonwn with 3 K left in his stack. He's pot committed, but Sammy is far from committed. Sammy folds if he doesn't hit, reraises if he did. The reverse implied odds here being that AA won't get paid off, but will get stacked here vs. a beter hand.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

When I originally read OrangeKings post I thought he was saying that Sammy's reverse implied odds were huge which I didn't agree with (his implied odds are huge). But upon re-reading it, I might have had the perspective wrong (i.e. he wasn't talking about Sammy).

And no I'm not a donkey, I'm a donkey chip. donkey chip < donkey. Some of us actually realize where we are in poker food chain and don't need to berate others to falsely elevate ourselves.[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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I thought Sammy had 33? I thought it was a bad call but I guess that's Sammy's style.

If you think about it, Sammy fell right into the guys trap...but the poker gods would have none of that.

[/ QUOTE ]

that was a pretty easy call by sammy so long as he had the read that the guy would go broke w/ AA-QQ on a ragged flop.

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Isn't Sammy 8.9:1 to flop a set without Curtis also flopping a set?

And he'll still lose about about 9% of time on the safest flops (no backdoor draws) and 41% of the time on the scariest flops (gutshot with flush and set draws).

My guess is that is a marginally minus EV call. However, about 10% of the time he should flop big enough that he knows he can go all-in as a 90% favorite, and given his big chip stack plus meta-game considerations, it's a fine gamble.

I think he just has to be willing to fold a set if Curtis shows strength when an A, K, Q flops or a 3-flush flops.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

My favorite part of this hand was actually DN's reaction. He asked if the guy really meant to bet 1K, then leaned way over in his chair to get a good look at the guy who raised it to 20xbb preflop. It's like he was thinking "I want to remember you..."

Agreed on the discussion of Farha's push a set or fold plan.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

OrangeKing put it about as well as I could.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

[ QUOTE ]
sidenote: if you ever watch the Travel Channel's Vegas shows, that was the guy who claims to be an expert video poker player, and knows all the odds. He's written some gambling books. I'm sure someone remembers his name, but I don't...

[/ QUOTE ]
Anthony Curtis

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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Isn't Sammy 8.9:1 to flop a set without Curtis also flopping a set?

And he'll still lose about about 9% of time on the safest flops (no backdoor draws) and 41% of the time on the scariest flops (gutshot with flush and set draws).

My guess is that is a marginally minus EV call. However, about 10% of the time he should flop big enough that he knows he can go all-in as a 90% favorite, and given his big chip stack plus meta-game considerations, it's a fine gamble.

I think he just has to be willing to fold a set if Curtis shows strength when an A, K, Q flops or a 3-flush flops.

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I think Sammy can make a good read on this board and get away from the hand if Curtis shows strength here. If we believe that Curtis isn't some donk who raises 20xBB with any 2 cards just to play LAGGish, then Sammy will be really careful. Remember, he just doubled up. No reason to throw it all away when you might be beat with set over set (if the A or K flops).

I think Farha played this well, got lucky and stacked off someone overplaying AA.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

His name is Tony Curtis, and is a professional gambler and knows how to play BJ correctly.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

So is Sammy check/folding a 3Ax flop??? Or at least bet/folding???

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

Is this post some kind of a joke?? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

When you raise 10% of your stack preflop with AA, you are moving in on the flop everytime (I don't know the story but I'm guessing he open pushed). If someone else found something on the flop, good for him.

When he gets called, he will have ~10% equity about 91.5% of the time. The other 8.5% of the time it will be set over set and he will have ~95% equity.

EVwhen called = .915*.1*T20k + .085*.95*T20k - T9k = - T5,555

EVno call = + T2000

Total EV = .882*T11000 + .118*T3445 - T9000 = ~ + T1100

So he started the hand with T10,000 and after pushing the flop he has increased his chipstack to ~T10,100. Not great with aces, but not a total disaster.

Moving in off the flop is clearly the right play. Checking and giving free cards to the smaller pairs is a total disaster since hands like 33 aren't going to call a bet unless they flop a set. If the 33 will call pot sized bets on a T86 flop then it is a different story, but you have to end the hand now with AA if the small pair will give up UI.

Brad

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

If we assume Sammy never folds when he flops a 3 and curtis never folds on any flop then the math is as follows:

out of 8.5 times:

7.5 time sammy will fold and lose 1000 (-7500)
1 time he will flop a set and win the hand 81% of the time( and 10k from crutis) (+8100)

The average EV of the call is ~71.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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Anyone else add on anything here or correct some stuff?

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Maybe he was confident he could get AA / KK to lay it down due to his image.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

Here is Anthony Curtis' side:

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I'm up to $14,300. Then trouble. I pick up AA. This is a real problem hand in this situation. I bet $1,000 and Farha called after a lot of thought, looking at Negreanu and saying "you gotta gamble, right." He had 33 and the flop came 3-4-9. I bet 6,000, he raised all-in, and I called. Two big mistakes on my part. First, there was no reason to bet as much as I did after the flop. Betting the size of the pot, about $2,000, would have made him lay it down had he missed the flop. Second, I have to know he's hit a set at this point (though I was thinking possible KK, maybe even QQ). Had I made the better bet, I might have been able to throw the aces. Honestly, I'm not sure though. TV table and a chance to bounce Farha and go to $29,000 was too enticing. I think the deciding factor was that I don't feel I'm good enough right now to throw away aces and play on against the best players in the world, so I took my shot.


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Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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Isn't Sammy 8.9:1 to flop a set without Curtis also flopping a set?

And he'll still lose about about 9% of time on the safest flops (no backdoor draws) and 41% of the time on the scariest flops (gutshot with flush and set draws).

My guess is that is a marginally minus EV call. However, about 10% of the time he should flop big enough that he knows he can go all-in as a 90% favorite, and given his big chip stack plus meta-game considerations, it's a fine gamble.

I think he just has to be willing to fold a set if Curtis shows strength when an A, K, Q flops or a 3-flush flops.

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I think Sammy can make a good read on this board and get away from the hand if Curtis shows strength here. If we believe that Curtis isn't some donk who raises 20xBB with any 2 cards just to play LAGGish, then Sammy will be really careful. Remember, he just doubled up. No reason to throw it all away when you might be beat with set over set (if the A or K flops).

I think Farha played this well, got lucky and stacked off someone overplaying AA.

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If sammy flops a set here, theres no way he's getting away from it, i think this was a bad call (or atleast -cEV) he doesnt hit his set enough, ,and when he does he gest drawn out on enough to make this suck.

Also, sincec when is a huge raise always AA/KK... i'd say more often than not a big raise like that means AK or maybe JJ.. people think they dont want to see flops with those hands or overbet it.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

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Isn't Sammy 8.9:1 to flop a set without Curtis also flopping a set?

And he'll still lose about about 9% of time on the safest flops (no backdoor draws) and 41% of the time on the scariest flops (gutshot with flush and set draws).

My guess is that is a marginally minus EV call. However, about 10% of the time he should flop big enough that he knows he can go all-in as a 90% favorite, and given his big chip stack plus meta-game considerations, it's a fine gamble.

I think he just has to be willing to fold a set if Curtis shows strength when an A, K, Q flops or a 3-flush flops.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Sammy can make a good read on this board and get away from the hand if Curtis shows strength here. If we believe that Curtis isn't some donk who raises 20xBB with any 2 cards just to play LAGGish, then Sammy will be really careful. Remember, he just doubled up. No reason to throw it all away when you might be beat with set over set (if the A or K flops).

I think Farha played this well, got lucky and stacked off someone overplaying AA.

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If sammy flops a set here, theres no way he's getting away from it, i think this was a bad call (or atleast -cEV) he doesnt hit his set enough, ,and when he does he gest drawn out on enough to make this suck.

Also, sincec when is a huge raise always AA/KK... i'd say more often than not a big raise like that means AK or maybe JJ.. people think they dont want to see flops with those hands or overbet it.

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I agree that there is some possibility of AK or JJ -- which means that there is also good possibility that Curtis won't stack off every time that Sammy hits a set, which is a requirement for calling the 1k. The fact that Curtis had 14k in chips actually makes this a slightly better call IMHO because he's getting 14:1 not 10:1 if his assumption that Curtis would stack off every time is right (that is one hell of an assumption though!).

I also just re-watched the episode. Clearly he was just gambling here. Calling with 33 probably was one of his better gambles, but he was seriously gambling. For example, he called a double-raise with 92s -- when the original raiser (DN) could still have re-raised. Then he called on a flush draw/gutshot for 2k getting 3:1 (that's not the worst call in the world if he thinks he's going to get action on the river AND all his outs are clean).

I'm sure Sammy Farha would outplay the hell out of me, so I'm not saying he is a bad player or anything stupid like that, it's just pretty clear that these calls were not major +EV calls - they were calculated gambles designed to build up a big chip stack early, or bust out and play a different game.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sam Farha's call is perfect, when you consider the situation:

1) Farha has plenty of chips, having doubled up earlier. Survival isn't a concern when making this call.

2) Opponent has just made a ridiculously large raise - it is nearly certain he makes this play only because he's scared of being sucked out on, and he has AA or KK. Given that we know this, the reverse implied odds are huge - the opponent may as well has flipped his cards over for us.

3) An opponent who makes such a foolishly large raise is likely to make another foolish play and put all his money in on the flop.

Given these factors, Farha is likely getting 10-1 on his money when looking at the implied odds; when he hits his 3 (about 7.5-1 against), his opponent will almost always go broke. Given this, his call is a smart play in my book.

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this is why the play is correct. well done.

rj

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

I didnt know the guy had 14k instead of 10k.. that makes a pretty bgig difference...


And enough to swing it from a fold to call i think.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

I was actually a little disappointed that someone with such a good understanding of casino odds (blackjack, craps, etc.) would play AA this way. I was like, surely he's trying to overbet in hopes that some donk amateur would call him with a lower pair (3s would suffice). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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I'm up to $14,300. Then trouble. I pick up AA. This is a real problem hand in this situation.


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A real problem hand? In the early stages of a tournament where you're deep in chips when compared with the blinds?

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I bet $1,000 ...



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Come again???

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and Farha called after a lot of thought, looking at Negreanu and saying "you gotta gamble, right." He had 33 and the flop came 3-4-9. I bet 6,000, he raised all-in, and I called. Two big mistakes on my part. First, there was no reason to bet as much as I did after the flop. Betting the size of the pot, about $2,000, would have made him lay it down had he missed the flop. Second, I have to know he's hit a set at this point (though I was thinking possible KK, maybe even QQ). Had I made the better bet, I might have been able to throw the aces. Honestly, I'm not sure though. TV table and a chance to bounce Farha and go to $29,000 was too enticing. I think the deciding factor was that I don't feel I'm good enough right now to throw away aces and play on against the best players in the world, so I took my shot.


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A $6k flop bet? Man, if you're up against a set of 3s well then so be it, but the other 88% of the time, you'd want to get a little value out of the rockets doncha' think?

Anthony, so disappointed, so, so disappointed.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

i posted this up... so the general concensus is that farha made a fine play with the information he had reguardless of his skill level.

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

[ QUOTE ]
i posted this up... so the general concensus is that farha made a fine play with the information he had reguardless of his skill level.

[/ QUOTE ]yea, u were right on in ur original post for most of the reasoning too, mostly impied odds

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

Anthony Curtis is not an unknown to anyone that has watch travel channel specials on las vegas.

He runs a really good website also: www.lasvegasadvisor.com

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

Is sammy getting away from a set if it comes 3Ax? what bout 3Kx or 3Qx?

Re: sam farha vs. (unknown) day1 wsop
 

Online, I understand huge overbets to usually mean 99-JJ.

If he is committed to getting stacked on any flop, he should have bet 3k preflop. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]