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-   -   5/10 flop puzzle (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=354728)

Position 10-10-2005 06:16 PM

5/10 flop puzzle
 
Push, Check/fold, or Other? I have 2/3 pot, or $200, left. They all cover me. There are 4 opponents.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10 BB (9 handed) converter

Button : VeryBroadHandRange / ($327.50)
SB ($1364)
Hero ($269)
UTG : VeryBroadHandRange / ($1751.80)
UTG+1 : TightReasonableHandRange / ($1146.80)
MP1 ($1005)
MP2 ($962.25)
MP3 ($1945.05)
CO : ReasonableHandRange / ($880.85)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG : VeryBroadHandRange)/ calls $10,
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>,
MP1 calls $10,
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>,
CO : ReasonableHandRange)/ calls $10,
Button : VeryBroadHandRange)/ calls $10,
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>,
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $60</font>,
UTG : VeryBroadHandRange)/ calls $50,
MP1 calls $50,
CO : ReasonableHandRange)/ calls $50,
Button : VeryBroadHandRange)/ calls $50.

Flop: ($305) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>

Final Pot: $305

10-10-2005 06:44 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
Uhhh, play within your bankroll with more than 27bb's at a time?

Position 10-10-2005 06:47 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 

heh

that's one way to approach a puzzle

10-10-2005 07:07 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
You can put yourself in all sorts of puzzling situations if you so desire. There are some situations you can avoid altogether, though, like the one you just described.

c/f that [censored], and move down stakes where you can buy in for the full amount.

Position 10-10-2005 07:50 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 

i solemnly swear my bankroll has nothing to do with my stack in this hand!

i hear one vote for Check/fold.

who else will tackle the flop?

beset7 10-10-2005 08:11 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
raaaaallll innn babby

is there anything to tackle with less then a pot-sized bet left!? All of the players have hands in their range that include all kinds of hands that you have crushed and a bunch that don't. You are not going to be able to play poker here so gamble or don't gamble.

Benholio 10-10-2005 08:11 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
C/F. If you had a full stack, would you CB into 4 players OOP? Probably not, and you have even less fold equity when you are getting all-in here. I would call you with any pair on this flop.

Also, this is something to be considered when making the raise from the BB to begin with. With so many limpers, you are going to be multiway if you only raise to $50. With your stacksize, push or check preflop.

j0wlev 10-10-2005 08:19 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
Push the flop.

Position 10-10-2005 08:57 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
Cool, vote tied at 2-2 now.

I raised it to $60 pre to get it heads-up or 3way, knowing I would almost certainly push on any flop (unless the tightest guy alone called). I totally did not expect *4* callers (so 5way). This game doesn't play that loosely. I would have raised to $100 instead &amp; pushed any flop (because then it WOULD be only 2-3way) had I expected such loosies.

I would call you with any pair on this flop. is very exploitable.

how often will you have a pair to call me with? how often will they? will all pairs in all positions call? Doing the math is where this gets really interesting.

Mr. Curious 10-10-2005 08:59 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
Looks like you were trying to play Short Stack style. This is a push, especially since there are no straight or flush draws out there, and if someone has a J, then so be it, plus your push might get someone holding a 3 to fold.

GAMBOOL!!

chopchoi 10-10-2005 10:01 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
How broad is very broad? like random? If so, then there's a 1/8 chance that one of the loosey goosey's has a J, and a (3/47)(2/46)2 chance that one has 33. The reasonable players have little chance of holding a J (unless they have JJ) but the last one has a much better chance of holding 33.
Let's say there's a 1 in 6 chance that a J or 33 is out, In which case you are drawing practically dead.

A player has about a 16:1 chance of being dealt a pocket pair, but if they call a 6xbb raise, that chance goes up a lot. How much, I don't know. so, against 4 random hands, there would be a 1 in 4 chance that a pocket pair was out.
Let's say a pocket pair is 3x as likely among players who call the PF raise, so you figure there is a 3/4 chance someone holds a pocket pair.

So, it looks like you're behind about 90% of the time here. You have no hope of making money by being called by a worse hand. All You can hope for is to fold a better hand if it is out, or to suck out if they call you.

Yo have about a 25% chance of sucking out against a pocket pair, but there's that 1/6 of the time you're dead, and 5% of the time they fill up, so call it 20%. So, 10% Of the time a push wins you the pot with the best hand. x% you fold a pocket pair and win, and of the remainder you aren't dead and manage a successful suckout 20% of the time.

I don't know how big x is, but it would need to be pretty big to warrant a push here. I can't think anymore, but I'm convinced you should fold.

Position 10-10-2005 10:08 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 

Tied at 3-3. Apparently a close question!

dvo352 10-10-2005 10:42 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
You should have made it bigger than 50 preflop since you are OOP. But on that flop you are looking pretty dead. Chances are you are behind. I would probably check fold here. There are 4 players left to act. They all have you covered. A push doesn't seem like it will get all 4 of them to fold. IDK... the worst thing is that you are OOP.

beset7 10-10-2005 10:45 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
How does position really matter when its all-in or check/fold?

dvo352 10-10-2005 11:02 PM

Re: 5/10 flop puzzle
 
Well you could have at least got some information on them. If they lead out betting into your preflop raise with only 200 behind you then that would almost be begging for a call. You are shortstacked and they know that you would probably commit all your chips here. Plus, I was talking about his preflop raise. OOP, he should have made it more and just shoved on the flop so that he didn't have to think.


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