Colts Moneyline
 

-1200 (I haven't looked for anything lower)

Is there any value it putting up 20% of your roll to win 1.8 units or whatever?

I mean, can the colts really lose? (It's like in tech's pooh-bah post ... )

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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-1200 (I haven't looked for anything lower)

Is there any value it putting up 20% of your roll to win 1.8 units or whatever?

I mean, can the colts really lose? (It's like in tech's pooh-bah post ... )

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No, the Colts can't lose. This is the NFL and the better team always wins.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

I would not make such a bet here. There are better locks in sportsbetting. For example, taking Floyd Mayweather Jr. over a fighter like Chop Chop Corley would be a much safer way to make 15% on the money.

Indy

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

I would advise against betting virtually any road favorite of 10 or more on the money line. As bad as San Fran appears to be right now, the value is just not there.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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I would advise against betting virtually any road favorite of 10 or more on the money line. As bad as San Fran appears to be right now, the value is just not there.

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Thanks.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

Never a good idea to bet a lot to win a little.

It's like the saying goes, "Don't bet at 1/5; if you have the 5, you don't need the one."

bc

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

Even though this is a "poor" bet, I did notice this at -1000 at Canbet yesterday. At work now, so can't see current ML.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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Never a good idea to bet a lot to win a little.

It's like the saying goes, "Don't bet at 1/5; if you have the 5, you don't need the one."

bc

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I was just thinking about it based on Tech's post where one of his points was the following:

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(6) Don’t be afraid to bet “bridgejumpers.” These are props/bets where you lay big odds, like -400, -1000, etc. Most bettors want to TAKE big odds, not lay them. Consequently you will often find some real values laying large odds.


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Re: Colts Moneyline
 

Tech makes a valid point, one which is utterly inapplicable to large NFL road faves, however.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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Tech makes a valid point, one which is utterly inapplicable to large NFL road faves, however.

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Re: Colts Moneyline
 

I just remind myself the Lakers were -800 or higher in the NBA finals against the Pistons. I don't know anyone who liked the Pistons. The risk is there.

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I remember losing a bet like this (odds weren't as bad though) on the Denver-Green Bay Superbowl. I couldn't decide what to do with the points so I finally settled on doing the sure thing...the Green Bay moneyline.

You always forget these bets when you win them. But lose one and you'll have an expensive story to tell for years.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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I remember losing a bet like this (odds weren't as bad though) on the Denver-Green Bay Superbowl. I couldn't decide what to do with the points so I finally settled on doing the sure thing...the Green Bay moneyline.

You always forget these bets when you win them. But lose one and you'll have an expensive story to tell for years.

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Comparing that matchup to the Colts-49ers is absurd. Do you see why?

Brad

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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I remember losing a bet like this (odds weren't as bad though) on the Denver-Green Bay Superbowl. I couldn't decide what to do with the points so I finally settled on doing the sure thing...the Green Bay moneyline.

You always forget these bets when you win them. But lose one and you'll have an expensive story to tell for years.

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Comparing that matchup to the Colts-49ers is absurd. Do you see why?

Brad

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homedog in a less meaningful setting...what do I win

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

This is the difference. If payton manning and marvin harrison both get hurt in the first quarter the colts are still at least a 50% shot at least.

Whether or not to bet is the question. I'm thinking about doing it and doing it big. I mean my working bankroll right now can be easily replinished from my poker one. I think a guy could throw half of it down and still sleep at night.

I see this line getting worse as the game nears (as in betting on the colts will get worse). Any thoughts on that?

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

Here's a piece of info I ran over again yesterday that you should find astounding: NFL home dogs of 10.5+ from '92-'04 won the game outright in 15 of 50 games played. (ed:) Large NFL road faves are probably among the worst money line plays in all of sports on a per game basis.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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Here's a piece of info I ran over again yesterday that you should find astounding: NFL home dogs of 10.5+ from '92-'04 won the game outright in 15 of 50 games played. (ed:) Large NFL road faves are probably among the worst money line plays in all of sports on a per game basis.

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I don't need to be convinced to not bet it. I'm already not betting it. (but maybe I shouldn't have even asked as some people seem to really like the idea.)

This however, is a very interesting stat. Makes the SF moneyline look quite nice. which, I guess, is why you always play those big moneylines.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

Yep, I almost always play (ed:) large home dog money lines. Big road dogs are another matter.

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Yeah, i'm just going to stay away from the damn game.

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Its very tempting to jump on the Colts bandwagon at this point, that's why this -14 is getting bet so much as well as the under. I know this team pretty well and I have made bets on them that all hit in the first 4 weeks (all posted here in advance). I have over $2K in bets for this weekend but not one on the Colts. I would recommend all bettors to find other games to wager on because the total score should be very close to the over/under being offered and the spread will be a close one as well.

GL,

Indy

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

Well tried to edit my last message but it was too late. I guess I did put a little bet in earlier this week when i first heard about the rookie QB for SanFran. I like this one.

Two game teaser

Baltimore +7.5
Colts -8
10=8.33

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

I agree....I think Alex Smith will make a diff. This could be a surprise for most people.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

For all the bad said about Tim Rattay, he could more or less be counted on to play a fairly risk averse brand of quarterback. Alex Smith is a big who knows -- I am more comfortable with Rattay as regards betting San Fran against the spread, but more comfortable with Smith's ability to win the game (or conversely throw 5 picks and lose by 40), all else being equal.

Re: Colts Moneyline
 

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I remember losing a bet like this (odds weren't as bad though) on the Denver-Green Bay Superbowl. I couldn't decide what to do with the points so I finally settled on doing the sure thing...the Green Bay moneyline.

You always forget these bets when you win them. But lose one and you'll have an expensive story to tell for years.

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Comparing that matchup to the Colts-49ers is absurd. Do you see why?

Brad

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Yes. Here I can risk losing much more money on the favorite than I did in that Super Bowl.