Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

Should I have folded my AAxxss preflop?

$200 PL Omaha 9-handed
Seat 1: MP3 ( $221.05 )
Seat 2: CO ( $197 )
Seat 3: Button ( $43.25 )
Seat 4: SB ( $72 )
Seat 5: BB ( $140.45 )
Seat 6: UTG ( $204.30 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $200 )
Seat 10: MP1 ( $252.35 )
Seat 9: MP2 ( $194 )
Seat 2: MP3 ( $197 )

** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ]
UTG folds, Hero calls [$2], MP1 calls [$2], MP2 calls [$2], MP3 raises [$8], CO folds, button calls [$8], SB folds, BB calls [$6], Hero calls [$6], MP1 calls [$6], MP2 raises [$55], MP3 raises [$196], Button calls $35 (all-in), BB folds, Hero ???

I did call . . . results and analysis after I get a few comments.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

Lets ignore the button cos hes short.

MP2s limp reraise smells like aces.
MP3 clearly doesn't care.

They can't both have aces though [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

If you are against a much better pair of aces (AAJTss) and something like 8765ss then you are in awful shape.

If he one also has junky aces and the other 8765ss you are in awful shape again.

Against QJT9s and 8765s you have about 30% equity.

Frankly I didn't realise how bad the equity would be.

If one is on something like KKxx though then your equity makes it an easy call.

At this level there are enough donks around to probably make this an +ev call. I think its close though.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

this hand looks a damn sight better at O8. I don't play too much omaha high, mind. If the 2 or 5 was a diamond so you were doublesuited, that helps a *tad*, or is your post a typo?

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

Hi Joewatch,

Of course you should not fold! You are in a game where no player has more than 130x the big blind, so it's not like a cash game that you see occasionally (especially in Britain) with extremely deep money. Yeah sure, if someone else has aces too, you don't like it, but this is far from certain. And the hand match-up by the first reply with the two rundown hands is nice, but it is exactly what it is: made up. The betting by no means suggests that this exact hand match-up is out there, because it is actually MUCH more likely you are up against big cards and / or the two players hold some of each other's cards. (And even in this made-up hand match-up, even if indeed you would win just 30% of the time, then folding would STILL be incorrect.) Just as likely is that you are up against QQAK and a second player with KKxx, making you a MASSIVE money favorite - meaning that folding the current best hand would be an absolute disaster.

All in all, in online (shallow-money) games, you should NEVER pass on the opportunity to go all-in with aces whenever that's possible. Yeah sure, occasionally you may be slightly wrong when some other player has aces too, but usually you will be VERY right, so there is no need to break your head figuring out if maybe, possibly, this could be one of these "slightly wrong" situations. Just stick it in and hope your hand wins. This is ESPECIALLY true when you have already invested money in the pot and / or there is dead money in the pot. As in this case, you have already put in $6 with a stack of just slightly more than $200, and there is also additional dead money in the pot. All of this means that in a 3-way pot, you would need to have MUCH LESS than 33.3% pot equity in a 3-way pot, and much less than 25% 4-way. Now, in this situation, going all-in with your aces is a no-brainer, especially now that one of your aces is suited. Any other decision than going all-in would be an awful play. Even if you were 90% certain that one of the others has aces too (especially the biggest stack), then folding would STILL be awful. And it should be clear that you can almost never be that certain, meaning that in my view folding is out of the question - period.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

Yeah, I don't think you could possibly fold here. Aces, double suited (you said they were double suited, but the suits showing on your hand aren't...I'll take that as a typo) are the kinds of hand you want to go to war with. Add to that you've got 3 to a wheel. Whoever doesn't go all in with this hand needs to stop playing PL Omaha.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Aces, double suited

[/ QUOTE ]

(ss = single suited)

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

I don't see you folding, but I wouldn't hold my breath to win. I hate this position, I much prefer freerolling [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

But I wouldn't fold the aces.

JMB

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

I rarely disagree with Rolf...but this is one of those times. Very very few players online will play as the AA suspect does here and NOT have AA. It will only be a maniac/tilter who would, and you should have a view of that from prior play.

TO say NEVER to pass AA online is not quite true. In about 40k hands or so I've passed it once, and then it was very marginal and probably a mistake. What is true is that you are never going to be making a huge error by always calling. What is also true is that you may be only marginally in a good spot, if at all, and do you intend to pursue all 1% edges for all your stack?

For an example and some debate on this, check out here

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

this is one of those hands i'm willing to go broke with

- with all this action i gotta believe AA KK and plenty of other high cards are in play (effectively cancelling the other hands out) - i think we have value with the low straight possiblities as well, figuring if 8 people like their hands preflop the 3s and 4s must be in the deck

Results & Analysis
 

http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?p...mp;hand=141283

Here's the ugly truth:

pokenum -o kc kh 6h qs - tc 8h jd 3d - 2h 5h ad ah - 9c ac as 3s
Omaha Hi: 376992 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kc Kh 6h 96162 25.51 280734 74.47 96 0.03 0.255
Tc Jd 3d 8h 129295 34.30 247601 65.68 96 0.03 0.343
As 3s Ac 9c 76791 20.37 271362 71.98 28839 7.65 0.242
Ad Ah 5h 2h 45809 12.15 302344 80.20 28839 7.65 0.160

I was a huge dog to the field, not even close to 25% equity in a 4-way pot. Even the kings are a favorite over me, and the yucky wrap hand had the biggest equity, and was the eventual winner.

Re: Results & Analysis
 

well having like 0 live hearts hurts, a lot.

Re: Results & Analysis
 

[ QUOTE ]
http://www.pokerhand.org/index.php?p...mp;hand=141283

Here's the ugly truth:

pokenum -o kc kh 6h qs - tc 8h jd 3d - 2h 5h ad ah - 9c ac as 3s
Omaha Hi: 376992 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Kc Kh 6h 96162 25.51 280734 74.47 96 0.03 0.255
Tc Jd 3d 8h 129295 34.30 247601 65.68 96 0.03 0.343
As 3s Ac 9c 76791 20.37 271362 71.98 28839 7.65 0.242
Ad Ah 5h 2h 45809 12.15 302344 80.20 28839 7.65 0.160

I was a huge dog to the field, not even close to 25% equity in a 4-way pot. Even the kings are a favorite over me, and the yucky wrap hand had the biggest equity, and was the eventual winner.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ouch - I suppose its obvious but until I did some pokercalculator sims I didn't realise how bad your equity is when the other AA is out there and you are against a couple of decent "live" hands.

I can't believe the KKQx hand stuck it in like that though!

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

Hmm.. I just checked out the thread you linked to, and even though I did not have the chance to read all of it, I think LA Price's comments basically summed it all up.

As to the actual situation, and the results that Joewatch gave: Well, this is a very extreme example. Why?

1. Lots of your hearts are out.
2. Someone has aces too. (This was to be expected, though not set in stone.)
3. The kings are entirely live.
4. The one with the crummy hands actually has ALL three key cards live: The jack, the ten and the eight.

And even then, even in this absolute worst case scenario, you still have 16% pot equity. This means that assuming everyone had equal stacks of $200, and assuming $10 total in dead money, you would get back 16% back of a total $810 pot, say about $130 or so. And since you are in for $6 already, you lose 'just' $64 on average. A lot of money yes, but not that much when looking at the potential reward. And in fact, in the actual situation there are people with shorter stacks than you. Assuming the crummy hand was the first player to go all-in, then you would be in a three-way pot with another one with AA and a second player with KK. Still not a great situation because player 1 has BETTER aces than you *and* the kings are live, but still turning this into a situation that is not *that* bad for you.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hmm.. I just checked out the thread you linked to, and even though I did not have the chance to read all of it, I think LA Price's comments basically summed it all up.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to read further down. Although the circumstances in that particular case were very different than here.

[ QUOTE ]
you lose 'just' $64 on average. A lot of money yes, but not that much when looking at the potential reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a hugely misleading statement. Your EV calculation *already* takes into account how much you could potentially win. And in this case you win, on average, -$60 ish for every $200 invested - a fairly disasterous result.

The truth is, in these very rare cases where you are against another AA and a run down hand, you are normally either very slightly EV + or -. It normally is no great shakes either way.

Another factor, an important meta game one, is that in the bulk of these situations you either lose your entire stack or win a comparatively small amount (the choppee). This may also have important factors depending on the table composition and your stack size.

gl

DD

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
you lose 'just' $64 on average. A lot of money yes, but not that much when looking at the potential reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know Dave D highlighted this but it is so bad that I had to give it another mention.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you lose 'just' $64 on average. A lot of money yes, but not that much when looking at the potential reward.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know Dave D highlighted this but it is so bad that I had to give it another mention.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that what he was talking about was that in what turned out to be just about the worst case, you will still only expect to lose ~64. However, when you are in the "best case" scenario, you will expect to make much more than that.

I think his comment was fine, just perhaps written poorly.

PS Given the possible range of hands, I'd guesstimate that the call was very slightly -EV.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

you lose 'just' $64 on average. A lot of money yes, but not that much when looking at the potential reward.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I know Dave D highlighted this but it is so bad that I had to give it another mention.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



I think that what he was talking about was that in what turned out to be just about the worst case, you will still only expect to lose ~64. However, when you are in the "best case" scenario, you will expect to make much more than that.

I think his comment was fine, just perhaps written poorly.

PS Given the possible range of hands, I'd guesstimate that the call was very slightly -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes Jim, maybe you're right. After reading your comment, I realize that I may have been a little harsh (sorry Rolf !). If that was his point, then I just didn’t get it the first time.

Re: Results & Analysis
 

A few more numbers:

If shortstack held QdJc9h3d, hero has 21% 4 way.
Removing the shortstack's hand gives hero 31% 3 way.
3 way but counting shortstack's actual dead cards gives hero 29%. twodimes

As it was, hero's share:
main pot: 0.16 * 187 = 30
side pot: 0.29 * 470 = 136
Total EV on hand = -$34
EV from decision point = -$26

Even with the terrible 4 way equity if hero had 35% in the side pot he'd be in profit. It's the 3 way number that matters. The other AA had 38%.

I don't know what the best case scenario would yield.

James

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

You are misunderstanding what EV means too. Rolf made a direct comparison between the -64 expected loss to the 800 plus pot. This is just a nonsense. A fairer comparison would be the -200 to the 600 potential profit. Or that you might expect your expectation to be in the region of -20 to +20.

gl

dd

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
A fairer comparison would be the -200 to the 600 potential profit. Or that you might expect your expectation to be in the region of -20 to +20.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all due respect Dave, but especially this last sentence is utter nonsense IMO. Also your comment on "no great shakes either way" is one that I very much disagree with. The point that I am making is exactly the opposite of what you seem to be saying. I am saying that you may be a rather slight dog (in the unfortunate event of someone having aces too, and especially when there is a third player with live and / or middle cards), but also a VERY big favorite (say, if one player has KKxx and a second one QQKA or AKQJ or so). So, thinking that your expectation here is close to zero is a gross misunderstanding of the nature of this hand / situation IMO. In fact, it is entirely possible that from the $800+ pot in a four-way situation, you could expect to get back $330 or so, and in a three-way pot you could even have close to 50% pot equity, say about $300 in a $600 or $620 pot.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

Rolf, we had already kinda "agreed" that the other guy had AA too. Of course you are right about the hypothetical you are describing. But we were actually all talking about something completely different - either the hand as described or a similar AA vs AA vs rundown hand scenario. And in that context your original comments were very wrong.

Of course, feel free to keep on talking about a scenario the rest of us aren't. Or still believing that the other guy doesn't have AA which I have already talked about in a post in this thread.

gl

dd

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, feel free to keep on talking about a scenario the rest of us aren't. Or still believing that the other guy doesn't have AA which I have already talked about in a post in this thread.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmmmmmmmmmm... I would say that if you and "the rest of us" (nice choice of words, by the way) keep discussing an issue from a narrow focus while leaving the probably most important piece of information out of it, well then, as you say, "feel free" to do that. It is certainly not MY way of looking at an issue. I would say, Dave: If you make your decisions at the table in the exact same manner as you have analyzed this problem here, it does not surprise me at all that your results have been so mediocre for such a long time now.

Best of luck nonetheless,

Rolf.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

lol

At last you have said something that was correct.

I heard from your Dutch friends that you always thought you were right, but I didn't believe them until now.

I used to think that some of the stuff I believed you said wrongly was a genuine "lost in translation" of having to write about sometimes complex issues in a second tongue.

Now I see that you are just "turf guarding" your "rep" as a face, pundit and god-save us, prospective author.

I am often wrong, and as you kindly put it, my results have shown it. But I am not afraid to admit it. You have been wrong in many places in this thread, and for reasons that can only be related to the above paragraph, you just don't want to admit it.

You and Barron Vangor Toth should get together and start your own forum "I'm right, now what's the question?"

Gl

dd

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
I heard from your Dutch friends that you always thought you were right, but I didn't believe them until now.

[/ QUOTE ]

But then you also heard that over the past four or five years or so, I have been the biggest winner by far in the PLO games - so that I may actually have been correct in being correct. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

One thing that I respect in you a lot actually, Dave, is that you are not afraid to show that you are going through a bad run, both in the short as well as in the long run. Very few players have the courage to do that. I respect that a lot.

But at the same time, when you approach a problem in an incorrect manner, like "we have already established the other guy has aces too", well then obviously it is not hard to see that there lies the crux of this problem of yours! The same reason why I have had so many conflicts over the years with my Dutch friends: they always thought I was wrong - yet my results consistently showed that I had to be either very right, or very lucky. When tackling a problem like the one here, I always tend to look at the BIG PICTURE. This means that if I estimate the chance of someone having aces too at 85 or 90%, I estimate that as 85 or 90% - not 100%. If you do that, you will almost certainly reach the wrong conclusion - as you did when you said it "was no great shakes either way". Things were exactly the same way with my friends in Holland, who could not understand me when I reraised all-in against someone who I *knew* had aces, while holding a mere T986ds or something similar, or folded crummy aces preflop from the big blind, when the small blind raised into the field, and the money was too deep to shut everyone out. And when I explained them, they still wouldn't believe it, and they would fail to leave out the important details that led to these decisions being correct. For years, people have told me that my analysis was wrong and that I was just lucky. Yet I am still standing there, while they are struggling - same as you, basically. Yet the only thing I hear is that *their* (and your) analysis is correct, and that *mine* is wrong. Well, then I would say: Yeah definitely there is something wrong - but I am fairly certain it is not my analysis.

Anyway, I hope we can leave it at this. I actually think you are a good guy, and hope that you won't be the next one in my (already very long!) list of enemies. I genuinely mean it when I wish you all the best - and I have no problem if in this case we will simply agree to disagree.

Rolf Slotboom
www.rolfslotboom.com

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
I have been the biggest winner by far in the PLO games

[/ QUOTE ]

None of them said this, funnily enough. They all said, that you were an ultra-tight, successful short stack player. And as I understood it, most of the Amsterdam action died out a quite some time ago.

[ QUOTE ]
Yet the only thing I hear is that *their* (and your) analysis is correct, and that *mine* is wrong. Well, then I would say: Yeah definitely there is something wrong - but I am fairly certain it is not my analysis.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not struggling - I dont do this for a living. Any money I make is pure gravy. FWIW winning doesnt mean that your analysis is right. Lot's of players win without having a damn clue how they are doing it. I'm not saying you are of that ilk, just that the idea that winning = rightness and more winning = more rightness is absurd.

I also think you may have misunderstood me. When I said that it didnt make much difference either way, I was referring to the situation when you are *sure* your foe has another AA. I also said that it would nearly always be alright to call, just your edge wouldnt be huge. Of course I WASNT referring to whether your foe had the other AA or KK as being not much difference; this is a huge difference.

And despite what you seem to think, the situation described by the original poster was almost 95%+ AA, online, unless the foe was a maniac or tilter.

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I hope we can leave it at this. I actually think you are a good guy, and hope that you won't be the next one in my (already very long!) list of enemies. I genuinely mean it when I wish you all the best

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get that upset about anything. I will put your incidental rudeness down to being Dutch [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

gl

dd

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

Lovely !
A clash between two of the ‘name’ players – Dave D and Rolf S.
Now I know neither of these two gentlemen personally but I have read quite a bit on both their sites, and the exchange above is very much in keeping with the general way in which they conduct themselves.
On one side you have Dave D, an intelligent and successful PLO player who provides great discussions on his blog, and who is very honest about his results. Not afraid to admit when he is incorrect about something. Quite courteous in his comments.
Needless to say, I’m a big fan.

Then we have Rolf Slotboom. All I really know about his results is what he tells us i.e. 2004 was a record year, even better than 2003 which was even better than 2002, etc. September was a great month, even better than August which was also great, etc. etc. - you get the picture. Slotboom has been carefully planting an image as a consistent winner over the past few years. I’m amazed he even has time to play given that he has so many other projects going on. If I was a cynical person, I’d think that all this image building is just to give him some credibility when he decides to write a book (just checked his website – he is writing a book, you could knock me down with a feather !). Anyway, where I come from it’s always better to let somebody else blow your trumpet. I’ve no doubt that Slotboom is a good Omaha player, and his Omaha advice is generally very good. But his constant self-promotion is a bit irritating, AND his snide, insulting remarks in some of the above posts were way over the top.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

As others have already noted, all started from an ambiguous statement of Rolf, for which he got instantly slammed. No matter the sentence could be read two ways, the potential EV blasphemous could not go unpunised. Then, how people react to attacks and up to what point it could degenerate, I personally don't care, as I don't look up to these players for their ability to fight it out on a forum but for the quality of their advice and writings.

FRC

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

I didn't comment on this thread earlier but since it got bumped will now. I believe that Big Dave's read of what the other players is correct, but that Rolf's point regarding the stack sizes in this situation is what is important. I have folded AA online 2 or 3 times with a deep stack facing other deep stacks especially when a maniac with one is in actin and I had something like AA73r in bad position. But with these small stacks even if 1 other player showed me his AA I am reraising allin in this particular situation since the OP did have a flush draw albeit lessesned by the 3rd heart, and because of the possibilities of making an idiot straight that will often be good or a low board set. Sure it would be nice if a short stack has the other AA and you can win a decent sidepot against a 3rd player, but with only 100bb I'm just shoving this in. In a max buyin structure like online, a lot of your earn comes from building a stack and doubling off another big stack. This looks like a good situation even with a read that you have virtually no chance of making a set of As and that you will often split. And FWIW, 3 way against stronlgy suspected aces, I am occasionally shoving something like the hand Rolf mentioned, JT9x as well with only my original buyin at stake.

To 45player: even if Rolf is tooting his own horn, there is no reason not to believe his stated results when other european players could easily point it out if not true, despite your snide insinuations to the contrary. It is your own comments which are unecessary. It should be obvious that any author has to promote himself to keep in business, and such self-promotion is only innapropriate if it is constant, which it is not here in these forums (his website is HIS website after all), or if it is based on untrue statements, of which you have given zero proof.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

[ QUOTE ]
when other european players could easily point it out if not true, despite your snide insinuations to the contrary.

[/ QUOTE ]
You’re exaggerating a little bit here buddy – I don’t actually see how other players could easily point this out. I don’t know if he is or isn’t a big money winner, nor do I care. I just don’t like hearing the ‘I know everything about PLO, I win loads of money, aren’t I the greatest’ theme trotted out regularly. Maybe you’re different but it’s my nature to be a little more humble about such matters. I don’t have any objection to him promoting his writings, I’m just not into all this self-praise thing.

AND, I really did not know he was writing a book until I looked at his site earlier today.


[ QUOTE ]
It should be obvious that any author has to promote himself to keep in business.

[/ QUOTE ]
I won’t repeat myself.


[ QUOTE ]
such self-promotion is only inappropriate if it is constant

[/ QUOTE ]
I had to reread this one. It sounds very weighty but I think it’s an inaccurate statement.



[ QUOTE ]
or if it is based on untrue statements, of which you have given zero proof

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn’t make any untrue statements. Stop trying to take the high moral ground.

I said already that Slotboom knows his Omaha. It would be nice however if he could acknowledge his mistakes like the rest of us.

Re: Fold AAxxss preflop fold vs. other \"big\" hands??
 

I did not say you made any untrue statements but was saying your criticism of his perceived self-promotion was wrong if HE had not made untrue statements. And as far as Rolf acknowledging playing mistakes, you would find such admissions if you read all his articles. Try to find an article or post where he maintained that he always plays perfect and you won't succeed. Besides his own website, his articles are readily available in the Cardplayer and Poker Pages archives.

I haven't always agreed with all Rolf's advice in those articles or in these forums, but he is one of the few authors who write at all regarding plo let alone regularly. Why don't you confine your criticism to his strategy advice rather than side issues?