NFL Team Rankings
 

I know I am asking for trouble for posting this because you all will flame me but I am going to go ahead and post this anyway because it should create some good discussion.

Anyway, I have a spreadsheet that tracks how each team performs both offensively and defensively compared to how it's opponents cumulative averages. This gives me a percentage of how a team has performed over or lower than the cumulative averages of it's opponents. For offense, a good average would be 1.09 (or 9% more than the other teams usually give up) for example. For defense, a good percentage is usually around 0.85 which means you give up 15% less than your opponents usually score.

Anyway, I use a formula to add winning percentage, offensive scoring percentage, and defensive scoring percentages to come up with a rating. The results are surprising in some cases and I know it's early but it will tweak itself more accurate and more data is applied each week. Note that this formula does not focus completly on a team's record (or even who they beat or lost to) but also how they performed against each team.

This is what last years final ranking looked like:

2.414 New England
1.816 Pittsburgh
1.806 Philadelphia
1.709 Indianapolis
1.494 San Diego
1.426 Buffalo
1.422 NY Jets
1.302 Baltimore
1.073 Denver
0.787 Jacksonville
0.687 Atlanta
0.660 Kansas City
0.629 Cincinnati
0.605 NY Giants
0.518 Carolina
0.518 Miami
0.455 Green Bay
0.429 Minnesota
0.421 Washington
0.346 Houston
0.293 Tampa Bay
0.180 Seattle
0.156 Arizona
0.105 Detroit
-0.079 New Orleans
-0.132 St. Louis
-0.214 Cleveland
-0.249 Chicago
-0.280 Oakland
-0.337 Tennesee
-0.398 Dallas
-1.406 San Francisco


Using the exact same formula, here is the current ranking for this year (including this weekend's games):

2.571 Indianapolis
2.490 Cincinnati
1.790 Washington
1.715 Atlanta
1.698 Philadelphia
1.624 Chicago
1.606 Denver
1.460 Pittsburgh
1.380 San Diego
1.363 Tampa Bay
1.284 NY Giants
1.268 Miami
0.929 Jacksonville
0.775 Seattle
0.624 Cleveland
0.510 New England
0.476 Kansas City
0.325 Dallas
0.137 Oakland
0.003 Carolina
-0.049 New Orleans
-0.327 Minnesota
-0.457 Detroit
-0.505 Buffalo
-0.512 St. Louis
-0.529 Tennesee
-0.552 NY Jets
-0.647 Arizona
-0.712 Baltimore
-0.772 Houston
-0.888 Green Bay
-1.407 San Francisco

Interesting. Pure stats, no bias.

Re: NFL Team Rankings
 

As I understand from your description, your formula desn't even know who has played who. Is this right? If not, I'd like to see how it ranks college teams.

Re: NFL Team Rankings
 

How are you getting negative numbers? I was expecting the average team to be 2.5 (avg offense = 1, avg defense = 1, winning% = 0.5).

Re: NFL Team Rankings
 

[ QUOTE ]
How are you getting negative numbers? I was expecting the average team to be 2.5 (avg offense = 1, avg defense = 1, winning% = 0.5).

[/ QUOTE ]

If I did it that way, win percent would not have enough weight. I had to use 'avgoff - 1' and '1 - avgdef' to bring those numbers down. So, 1.050 on offense would actually be a 0.050 rating. 1.050 on defense would actually be a -0.05 rating. Oh hell, here is what I have for each team for ratings:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Teams OFF DEF
Arizona 0.7098 1.1055
Atlanta 1.0750 0.7284
Baltimore 0.5854 1.0722
Buffalo 0.6965 1.0494
Carolina 1.1040 1.1793
Chicago 1.2632 0.7452
Cincinnati 1.2568 0.6746
Cleveland 1.2500 1.0696
Dallas 0.9823 1.0466
Denver 1.0289 0.7338
Detroit 0.8136 1.1391
Green Bay 0.7722 1.1442
Houston 0.6141 1.0000
Indianapolis 0.9610 0.4502
Jacksonville 1.0206 0.8707
Kansas City 1.2215 1.1556
Miami 1.1809 0.9203
Minnesota 1.1278 1.2776
New England 1.1024 1.0649
New Orleans 0.7486 1.0156
NY Giants 1.3737 1.0710
NY Jets 0.6431 1.0294
Oakland 0.8563 0.9418
Philadelphia 1.2141 0.8267
Pittsburgh 1.0776 0.7872
San Diego 1.3333 0.9288
San Francisco 0.8064 1.4232
Seattle 1.2699 1.0883
St. Louis 0.8700 1.2507
Tampa Bay 0.9240 0.8282
Tennesee 1.0795 1.3127
Washington 0.7963 0.6008 </pre><hr />

As the season goes on, the numbers become tighter and tighter. You can see teams like KC who are over 1.0 for both stats generally have higher scoring games. You can also see how Indy has actually scored less than other teams against those same opponents while giving up only half what the other teams normally score. I've used this to generate lines and totals for wagering over the years and it usually is within 2 or 3 points when I create my own lines.

Anyway, the ratings will change as the season goes on but a few teams caught me by surprise the way they have played this year so far. I like numbers. It's fun for me.

By the end of each year, the team with stats similar to what Atlanta has on this list usually win the superbowl. I won a lot of money when Tampa Bay crushed the Raiders a few years back because this showed me they should have been favored. It's usually a team that scores about 1.07 on offense but is 0.80 or lower on defense.

Edited to add: the reason for the negative numbers is because anything less than 1 on offense is a negative and anything higher than 1 on defense is a negative. I added multipliers which is why the positives and negatives are not equal. If you look at last year's rankings, they are pretty close to most would expect.

Re: After Week 5
 

In case anyone cares...

This was after Week 4:
[ QUOTE ]
2.571 Indianapolis
2.490 Cincinnati
1.790 Washington
1.715 Atlanta
1.698 Philadelphia
1.624 Chicago
1.606 Denver
1.460 Pittsburgh
1.380 San Diego
1.363 Tampa Bay
1.284 NY Giants
1.268 Miami
0.929 Jacksonville
0.775 Seattle
0.624 Cleveland
0.510 New England
0.476 Kansas City
0.325 Dallas
0.137 Oakland
0.003 Carolina
-0.049 New Orleans
-0.327 Minnesota
-0.457 Detroit
-0.505 Buffalo
-0.512 St. Louis
-0.529 Tennesee
-0.552 NY Jets
-0.647 Arizona
-0.712 Baltimore
-0.772 Houston
-0.888 Green Bay
-1.407 San Francisco

[/ QUOTE ]

This is current after Week 5:

2.787 Indianapolis
1.826 Cincinnati
1.777 Pittsburgh
1.516 Tampa Bay
1.472 Denver
1.471 Jacksonville
1.440 Cleveland
1.400 Washington
1.269 San Diego
1.065 Atlanta
0.976 NY Giants
0.960 Dallas
0.838 Philadelphia
0.807 Chicago
0.774 Seattle
0.727 Miami
0.645 New England
0.561 Green Bay
0.389 Detroit
0.327 Carolina
0.267 Kansas City
0.132 Oakland
-0.097 NY Jets
-0.121 Buffalo
-0.414 Tennesee
-0.510 St. Louis
-0.552 Arizona
-0.938 Minnesota
-0.974 New Orleans
-0.979 Baltimore
-1.204 Houston
-1.454 San Francisco

Re: After Week 5
 

Very cool stuff.

Re: After Week 6
 

After Week 6:

2.511 Indianapolis
1.722 Jacksonville
1.692 Tampa Bay
1.586 Cincinnati
1.434 Denver
1.269 San Diego
1.233 Pittsburgh
1.189 Dallas
1.171 Washington
1.164 Chicago
0.993 Seattle
0.940 NY Giants
0.853 Atlanta
0.822 Philadelphia
0.728 Cleveland
0.668 Detroit
0.592 Green Bay
0.457 Kansas City
0.447 Miami
0.392 Carolina
0.331 New England
0.104 Buffalo
0.024 Oakland
-0.192 Baltimore
-0.283 NY Jets
-0.310 Tennesee
-0.564 St. Louis
-0.579 Arizona
-0.970 New Orleans
-1.124 Minnesota
-1.421 San Francisco
-1.512 Houston

Re: After Week 6
 

don't you wonder about a metric that has cleveland, detroit, and miami ahead of carolina and new england?

Re: After Week 6
 

[ QUOTE ]
don't you wonder about a metric that has cleveland, detroit, and miami ahead of carolina and new england?

[/ QUOTE ]

"psst, Green Bay too"

Re: After Week 6
 

it seems this system would reward teams that have had blowout games. For instance, Green Bay's blowout over the Saints, and Chicago's blowout over Detroit and the Vikes. I think if there was some way to consider point stacking late in the game (teams behave very differently when they're behind - they become one dimensional)... and there'd be more variability early on in the season based on the teams they play. Again, using the terrible NFC north division as an example - the Bears, Lions, and Packers are higher than perhaps they should be because they play in such weak divisions - and have an easier schedule.

...just an idea - but I think this is pretty cool.

Re: After Week 6
 

No ranking will ever be perfect. It will tighten up as the season progresses because the stats will "web" together tighter. It does take into consideration how a team played against each opponent based on scoring but not whether it won or lost against them. For example, right now SD is higher than Pitt and Pitt beat them on the road. Same goes for Pitt and New England. New England beat them on the road. It takes into account every game rather than each individual game.

Bah, it's jsut interesting. And as I said, it will tighten up as more games are played and the tangled "web" becomes tighter. For now, it is what it is.

Re: After Week 7
 

After Week 7:

2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle
1.407 Washington
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago
1.286 Cincinnati
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

Also, teams who have played the toughest schedule so far (based only on oposing teams average wins):
4.67 Jacksonville
4.33 Houston
4.00 San Francisco
3.83 New England
3.83 Miami

Those with the easy schedules so far:
2.00 Indianapolis (how does this happen?)
2.17 Tampa Bay
2.17 Carolina
2.43 Cincinnati
2.57 Buffalo

Re: After Week 7
 

Indy's schedule the rest of the season is killer though. Jax twice, NE, SD, Philly, Seattle, Cincy, Pittsburgh. That's 8 hard games out of nine the rest of the way. Ok, so Seattle isn't as good as NE, which isn't as good as the other teams, but the Colts are going to have to prove their mettle down the stretch.

Re: After Week 7
 

These numbers seem to get more ridiculous each week.

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
These numbers seem to get more ridiculous each week.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure you could say that, but look at what happened from last weeks list.

[ QUOTE ]
After Week 6:

Indianapolis Won
Jacksonville Bye
1.692 Tampa Bay Bye
1.586 Cincinnati Lost vs Pitt
1.434 Denver Lost @ NYG
1.269 San Diego Lost @ Philly
1.233 Pittsburgh Won vs. Cin
1.189 Dallas Lost @ Sea
1.171 Washington Won
1.164 Chicago Won
0.993 Seattle Won vs Dal
0.940 NY Giants Won vs Den
0.853 Atlanta Won
0.822 Philadelphia Won vs. SD
0.728 Cleveland Lost vs. Det
0.668 Detroit Won @ Cle


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you need to stop watching so much NFL Primetime.

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
These numbers seem to get more ridiculous each week.

[/ QUOTE ]
Sure you could say that, but look at what happened from last weeks list.

[ QUOTE ]
After Week 6:

Indianapolis Won
Jacksonville Bye
1.692 Tampa Bay Bye
1.586 Cincinnati Lost vs Pitt
1.434 Denver Lost @ NYG
1.269 San Diego Lost @ Philly
1.233 Pittsburgh Won vs. Cin
1.189 Dallas Lost @ Sea
1.171 Washington Won
1.164 Chicago Won
0.993 Seattle Won vs Dal
0.940 NY Giants Won vs Den
0.853 Atlanta Won
0.822 Philadelphia Won vs. SD
0.728 Cleveland Lost vs. Det
0.668 Detroit Won @ Cle


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe you need to stop watching so much NFL Primetime.

[/ QUOTE ]

What's your point?

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
What's your point?

[/ QUOTE ]
These really are the best 16 teams in football right now.

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's your point?

[/ QUOTE ]
These really are the best 16 teams in football right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's some funny stuff.

Re: After Week 7
 

Interesting concept. I think your top 5 look pretty good, although I don't think JAX belongs, and I think Cincy should maybe be in there. NE should def. be higher, but I understand why they wouldn't be according to your formula.

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
NE should def. be higher

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure what the Pats have done to deserve this though. At this point New England is considered good simply because they have done it before. I'm not saying they don't deserve the benefit of the doubt, but they have done nothing this year to look like an elite team.

Re: After Week 7
 

They beat the Steelers. And they have one of the toughest schedules. Does anyone here think the Browns are better?

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
They beat the Steelers. And they have one of the toughest schedules. Does anyone here think the Browns are better?

[/ QUOTE ]

I definetly know the Browns have a better defense. I am very down on the Pats this year. They lost to an overrated Panthers team. Then SD and Denver made them look very mediocre.

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What's your point?

[/ QUOTE ]
These really are the best 16 teams in football right now.

[/ QUOTE ]

no way. Detroit is not a top 16 team. Atlanta should be higher. Chicago is not the 8th best team.

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
After Week 7:

2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay (uh... no)
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle (Seattle isn't a top 5 team, top 10, sure, but not top 5)
1.407 Washington (I think Washington is for real, but they're not this good)
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago (yeah, overrated)
1.286 Cincinnati (a loss to pittsburgh means nothing)
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego (they've had to face a killer schedule, you know LT + Gates is godlike)
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City (I'd bump this team up a few spots)
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England (this is a weird team right now, we know they're good, but they haven't played like it)
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

Also, teams who have played the toughest schedule so far (based only on oposing teams average wins):
4.67 Jacksonville
4.33 Houston
4.00 San Francisco
3.83 New England
3.83 Miami

Those with the easy schedules so far:
2.00 Indianapolis (how does this happen?)
2.17 Tampa Bay
2.17 Carolina
2.43 Cincinnati
2.57 Buffalo

[/ QUOTE ]
All-in-all, I don't think this is too far off, but I doubt it's as good as FO or Sagarin.

Re: After Week 7
 

Have you considered trying to factor home/road games into your system?

Re: After Week 7
 

[ QUOTE ]
2.227 Indianapolis
1.639 Tampa Bay (uh... no)
1.621 Jacksonville
1.566 Pittsburgh
1.413 Seattle (Seattle isn't a top 5 team, top 10, sure, but not top 5)
1.407 Washington (I think Washington is for real, but they're not this good)
1.366 Denver
1.338 Chicago (yeah, overrated)
1.286 Cincinnati (a loss to pittsburgh means nothing)
1.210 Dallas
1.188 San Diego (they've had to face a killer schedule, you know LT + Gates is godlike)
1.131 Philadelphia
1.038 NY Giants
0.927 Atlanta
0.914 Kansas City (I'd bump this team up a few spots)
0.677 Detroit
0.461 Cleveland
0.424 New England (this is a weird team right now, we know they're good, but they haven't played like it)
0.412 Oakland
0.386 Carolina
0.159 Green Bay
0.126 Miami
-0.133 Baltimore
-0.251 Arizona
-0.358 Buffalo
-0.388 NY Jets
-0.460 St. Louis
-0.478 Tennesee
-0.668 Minnesota
-0.998 New Orleans
-1.518 Houston
-1.788 San Francisco

[/ QUOTE ]

Some of your comments make sense but some don't. For example, I aggree that at the END of the year, Tampa Bay will not be ranked that high. But, if you consider what they have done to date, the ranking makes sense. I expect them to fall a little in the coming weeks as they play tougher opponents and adjust to a different starting qurterback. You could say similar things about Seattle and Chicago. They have had easier schedules also. I think Washington and Jacksonville are for real. They have played tougher schedules and have come out the best of it so far.

The thing I find interesting is the rating that it gives for Indianapolis. They are at 2.227 and have been caosting through their schedule so far. They will have a more difficult second half af the season. Now for the surprising part: New England's rating for the ENTIRE year last year is higher than Indy's rating is so far this year. That just shows you how good New England was last year. I've said it before, I truly think last year was by far their most impressive year during their run and they did it with key injuries also.

Again, just keep in mind that the ratings will tighten as more games are played. I don't know how to figure home/away into the formula but in the end it should even out anyway. I do think there may some extra weight in there when teams get blown out but as they play more games, each game means less when averaged in with the rest of them. Give it some time and see what happens. Looking at last year's final ratings, it looks pretty good.

The reason I made this spreadsheet a while back was to try and look for a measure of how a team played versus it's competition rather than just looking at win/loss records. I was trying to find something that would help me find advantages when making wagers. It has served it's purpose and I was only posting these to generate discussion. Teams can be ranked in many different ways. I just offer you one way. Take it for what it's worth. It works for me.

Re: After Week 8
 

After Week 8:

More for everyone to argue about. Jacksonville, Washington, and Tampa Bay all dropped just like most of you said. Giants now seem to be the next one to fall but probably not this week.

2.330 Indianapolis
1.685 NY Giants
1.652 Denver
1.476 Pittsburgh
1.434 Cincinnati
1.370 Dallas
1.366 Seattle
1.331 San Diego
1.301 Jacksonville
1.280 Chicago
1.127 Tampa Bay
0.902 Washington
0.827 Atlanta
0.724 Kansas City
0.641 New England
0.638 Philadelphia
0.582 Detroit
0.551 Carolina
0.470 Oakland
0.430 Miami
0.160 Green Bay
0.084 Cleveland
0.011 Baltimore
-0.216 St. Louis
-0.329 Buffalo
-0.357 Arizona
-0.402 NY Jets
-0.566 Tennesee
-1.001 Minnesota
-1.020 New Orleans
-1.261 Houston
-1.427 San Francisco

Re: After Week 8
 

These are looking more reasonable as each week goes by.

Re: After Week 9
 

Not really much change this week other than Carolina moving up a bit and Tampa Bay continuing to fall.

After Week 9:

2.304 Indianapolis
1.684 NY Giants
1.642 Denver
1.611 Pittsburgh
1.561 Cincinnati
1.400 Seattle
1.367 Dallas
1.239 Jacksonville
1.224 San Diego
1.172 Chicago
1.052 Washington
1.041 Atlanta
0.850 Carolina
0.780 Kansas City
0.709 Tampa Bay
0.543 New England
0.477 Philadelphia
0.421 Miami
0.331 Oakland
0.219 Cleveland
0.212 Green Bay
0.061 Detroit
-0.023 Baltimore
-0.173 St. Louis
-0.379 Buffalo
-0.385 Arizona
-0.392 NY Jets
-0.654 Tennesee
-0.661 Minnesota
-0.929 New Orleans
-1.150 Houston
-1.319 San Francisco

Re: After Week 10
 

The Giants fall a few spots and Carolina just keeps climbing.

After week 10:

2.145 Indianapolis
1.723 Denver
1.651 Pittsburgh
1.605 Cincinnati
1.500 Seattle
1.481 Jacksonville
1.351 NY Giants
1.318 Dallas
1.217 Carolina
1.179 Chicago
1.145 San Diego
0.880 Washington
0.805 Atlanta
0.690 Tampa Bay
0.683 New England
0.517 Green Bay
0.498 Kansas City
0.431 Philadelphia
0.251 Miami
0.204 Detroit
0.170 Oakland
0.093 Cleveland
0.001 Buffalo
-0.160 St. Louis
-0.200 Minnesota
-0.357 Baltimore
-0.498 Arizona
-0.578 NY Jets
-0.716 Tennessee
-0.911 Houston
-0.918 New Orleans
-1.259 San Francisco

Re: After Week 11
 

Indy's defensive rating took a beating and thus their rating dropped a little bit. With the losses to Cincy, Carolina, and Pittsburgh....Denver distanced itself from the rest of the pack to show up as the second best team behind Indy. Chicago moved up with the losses to those other teams as well. Every time I mention a team moving up, they seem to lose. Does that mean Chicago goes down to Tampa Bay this week?

After Week 11:

2.080 Indianapolis
1.925 Denver
1.516 NY Giants
1.480 Dallas
1.476 San Diego
1.467 Chicago
1.453 Pittsburgh
1.451 Cincinnati
1.327 Jacksonville
1.319 Seattle
1.089 Carolina
0.837 Washington
0.635 Tampa Bay
0.591 Kansas City
0.587 New England
0.564 Atlanta
0.503 Philadelphia
0.428 Cleveland
0.417 Oakland
0.317 Green Bay
0.173 Detroit
-0.048 Miami
-0.076 Minnesota
-0.090 Baltimore
-0.319 St. Louis
-0.333 Arizona
-0.375 Buffalo
-0.636 Tennessee
-0.707 NY Jets
-1.019 New Orleans
-1.022 San Francisco
-1.138 Houston

Inianapolis has been perfect this year so far. If you look at my orignial post, once again it shows how good New England was last year as they finished with a rating of 2.414, mostly because they played a tougher schedule and dominated I think.

Re: After Week 12
 

Indy's rating went up quite a bit after that game. Pit is falling, looking bad the last month or so. Chicago's defense keeping them ranked high.

After Week 12:

2.313 Indianapolis
1.922 Denver
1.504 Chicago
1.461 San Diego
1.453 NY Giants
1.442 Seattle
1.384 Cincinnati
1.354 Dallas
1.336 Jacksonville
1.297 Pittsburgh
1.118 Carolina
0.823 Atlanta
0.770 Washington
0.726 Kansas City
0.643 Tampa Bay
0.592 Philadelphia
0.465 New England
0.240 Green Bay
0.221 Cleveland
0.204 Oakland
0.137 Miami
0.083 Minnesota
-0.031 Detroit
-0.225 Baltimore
-0.236 Buffalo
-0.338 St. Louis
-0.349 Arizona
-0.547 Tennessee
-0.737 NY Jets
-0.945 New Orleans
-1.115 Houston
-1.129 San Francisco

Re: After Week 12
 

The one thing I don't like about this ranking system is that "2.313" doesn't mean anything to me.

If a team has a .650 winning percentage, I understand it's value. But, a "NoChance 2.313 rating" is incomprehensible.

Somehow, you should work on the final results of one team having meaning without being listed along side all the other team's results.

Re: After Week 12
 

[ QUOTE ]
Somehow, you should work on the final results of one team having meaning without being listed along side all the other team's results.

[/ QUOTE ]

What stat alone tells you how good that stat was? You know 300 yards passing in a game is a good thing from history. The same with 100 yards rushing, or putting up say 50 points are all good things. All these stats that you know as good are comparative to the same stats over history.

His stats are great as they are. It just takes a little bit of brain power (comparing numbers to other teams) to realize what's good and what's bad.

Re: After Week 12
 

My question is how the Chargers are number 4? They arent as good as all these bandwagoners are saying.

Re: After Week 12
 

Rating = (win percentage) + (offensive rating x 2) + (defensive rating X 3)

The number itself means nothing to me either. I just post it to show how close each team is to each other.

Offensive rating is the percentage of points +or- a team scores against the the average number it's opponents give up.

Defensive rating is the percentage of points +or- a team scores against the average number it's opponents score.

A slight weight is given to defensive rating (x3 as opposed to x2 for offense) as those teams usually do better in the playoffs. As I stated earlier, since using this spreadsheet, the team the wins the superbowl generally scores 5-7% more than it's opponents usually give up but the defense allows about 10-15 less than their apponents usually score. Here are the ratings for each team as of week 12. Offense on the left (higher the better). Defense on the right (lower the better).

0.9153 1.1508 Arizona
1.1457 1.0349 Atlanta
0.7243 0.9822 Baltimore
0.6653 0.9769 Buffalo
1.1430 0.9650 Carolina
0.7879 0.5997 Chicago
1.3312 1.0018 Cincinnati
0.7663 0.8918 Cleveland
1.0133 0.7696 Dallas
1.2412 0.7929 Denver
0.8633 1.0404 Detroit
1.0412 1.0082 Green Bay
0.7811 1.2561 Houston
1.2709 0.7430 Indianapolis
0.9740 0.7798 Jacksonville
1.1020 1.0382 Kansas City
0.8553 0.9791 Miami
0.9561 1.1250 Minnesota
1.1264 1.1112 New England
0.7911 1.2667 New Orleans
1.2041 0.8637 NY Giants
0.6487 1.0719 NY Jets
1.0391 1.0794 Oakland
1.0207 0.9678 Philadelphia
1.0565 0.8176 Pittsburgh
1.3771 0.9765 San Diego
0.7761 1.2878 San Francisco
1.1204 0.8723 Seattle
1.1314 1.3517 St. Louis
0.9674 0.9760 Tampa Bay
0.9651 1.2501 Tennessee
0.9987 0.8940 Washington

Sorted by Offense top to bottom:

1.3771 San Diego
1.3312 Cincinnati
1.2709 Indianapolis
1.2412 Denver
1.2041 NY Giants
1.1457 Atlanta
1.1430 Carolina
1.1314 St. Louis
1.1264 New England
1.1204 Seattle
1.1020 Kansas City
1.0565 Pittsburgh
1.0412 Green Bay
1.0391 Oakland
1.0207 Philadelphia
1.0133 Dallas
0.9987 Washington
0.9740 Jacksonville
0.9674 Tampa Bay
0.9651 Tennessee
0.9561 Minnesota
0.9153 Arizona
0.8633 Detroit
0.8553 Miami
0.7911 New Orleans
0.7879 Chicago
0.7811 Houston
0.7761 San Francisco
0.7663 Cleveland
0.7243 Baltimore
0.6653 Buffalo
0.6487 NY Jets

How to read: San Diego scores 37.71% more than their opponents average giving up.

Sorted by Defense top to bottom:

0.5997 Chicago
0.7430 Indianapolis
0.7696 Dallas
0.7798 Jacksonville
0.7929 Denver
0.8176 Pittsburgh
0.8637 NY Giants
0.8723 Seattle
0.8918 Cleveland
0.8940 Washington
0.9650 Carolina
0.9678 Philadelphia
0.9760 Tampa Bay
0.9765 San Diego
0.9769 Buffalo
0.9791 Miami
0.9822 Baltimore
1.0018 Cincinnati
1.0082 Green Bay
1.0349 Atlanta
1.0382 Kansas City
1.0404 Detroit
1.0719 NY Jets
1.0794 Oakland
1.1112 New England
1.1250 Minnesota
1.1508 Arizona
1.2501 Tennessee
1.2561 Houston
1.2667 New Orleans
1.2878 San Francisco
1.3517 St. Louis

How to read: Chicago gives up only 59.97% points that their opponents normally score.

Anyway, there are the details. Time for bed.

I simply developed this spreadsheet for my betting purposes so I could compare how teams do versus the opponents they have played. I simply post this for entertainment for anyone who is interested. It has helped me a lot.

Re: After Week 12
 

it looks like the problem with your system is that it doesnt take into account head to head matchups whatsoever.

pitt and jax beat cincy and played a hard schedule but are ranked lower.

the bears played a cupcake schedule and got whupped by cincy but are higher.

Re: After Week 12
 

[ QUOTE ]
Indy's rating went up quite a bit after that game. Pit is falling, looking bad the last month or so. Chicago's defense keeping them ranked high.

After Week 12:

2.313 Indianapolis
1.922 Denver
1.504 Chicago
1.461 San Diego
1.453 NY Giants
1.442 Seattle
1.384 Cincinnati
1.354 Dallas
1.336 Jacksonville
1.297 Pittsburgh
1.118 Carolina
0.823 Atlanta
0.770 Washington
0.726 Kansas City
0.643 Tampa Bay
0.592 Philadelphia
0.465 New England
0.240 Green Bay
0.221 Cleveland
0.204 Oakland
0.137 Miami
0.083 Minnesota
-0.031 Detroit
-0.225 Baltimore
-0.236 Buffalo
-0.338 St. Louis
-0.349 Arizona
-0.547 Tennessee
-0.737 NY Jets
-0.945 New Orleans
-1.115 Houston
-1.129 San Francisco

[/ QUOTE ]

How the [censored] is green bay ranked higher than MN despite being swept by them and having a lot worse record?

Re: After Week 12
 

[ QUOTE ]
it looks like the problem with your system is that it doesnt take into account head to head matchups whatsoever.

pitt and jax beat cincy and played a hard schedule but are ranked lower.

the bears played a cupcake schedule and got whupped by cincy but are higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

You would think so but it's not that easy. Lets not forget Denver lost to Miami. Carolina lost to New Orleans. Teams have bad games. This averages in EVERY game. The part that is tough is how to deal with injuries. I mean, if Peyton Manning goes down, my ratings for future games mean nothing. Same goes for running backs and things like that. These are just numbers but you have to also use common sense.

I thin kif you go to Yahoo, you will see Seattle ranked as the number one offense. However, that goes strictly by points scored. It ignores that they have played a ton of teams that give up more points than most teams average. At least this gets me one step closer when considering my bets.

Re: After Week 12
 

[ QUOTE ]

How the [censored] is green bay ranked higher than MN despite being swept by them and having a lot worse record?

[/ QUOTE ]

Again, you are only looking at a couple games. Show me a game where Green Bay got blown out? I'll show you quite a few where Minnesota did. Green Bay's record is bad but they have been in every game even with tons of injuries this year. This helps when handicapping games.