Am I getting paranoid?
 

I have been giving 2-4 players little to no respect lately and usually assume they have nothing. However, I'm starting to rethink this when people push the river and there are no real missed draws apparent. But then, when/if I fold, I'm kicking myself for being weak...

2-4 NL Online 10 handed

I am in the BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and have all relevant people covered.

3 limpers, SB completes.

Flop: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Pot: 20ish

checked to me, I bet 15, UTG+1 (~350ish) insta-calls, everyone else folds

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pot: 50ish

I bet 40, UTG+1 insta calls again.

River: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Pot: 130ish

I bet 100, UTG+1 thinks for a bit and then pushes for 175 more. Easy call?

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

muh

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

INSTACALL.

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

What KaneKungFu said

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

um i don't like it... it seems a lot like he picked up flush outs on the turn and then made his flush. while i'm likely calling without a good read (likely), anyone who doesn't play 2-4 (read nut peddling dopes) can't understand how much this call actually would make me sick. i don't think it would be a horrible fold, folding or calling both marginal. especially when i bet near full pot on the river and he seems to NOT CARE AT ALL.

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

guy could also have qj...

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

Here's the thing, I just don't see people bluffing with air that often and I also don't see tons of creativity at this level. What range of hands do you put this guy on?

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

He knows you're not folding for the $75 more. Move on.

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

It's $175 more.

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

What is mid-high coming to these days?

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

A big leak of mine is calling way too many rivers - but at least I sleep easy at night [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I call here 100% of the time, right or wrong, unless I have a very solid read on a player, and even then I'm hesitant to fold (and probably won't).

I'm still crushing 5-10 with this leak, so until I start getting killed on these calls, I'm going to keep being a calling station. Face it, people overplay hands...

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

thank you, a voice of reason

Re: Am I getting paranoid?
 

I think only two hands villain has here is KJs, KQs , or QJ. I don't think any 2 pair or set type hands plays it like this.

RESULTS
 

I hate the way I played this hand, not because of any results, but because I didn't think on the river. My exact logic on the river was, people overplay hands, I have a straight and I called. Here's what I usually do.

I try to put someone on a hand. That involves asking two questions:

1) What is he trying to represent? (aka What does he think I think he has)

and

2) What does he think I have?

Well, 1 is pretty easy in this case. He is trying to represent something strong.

From the way I played this hand, there's a chance he thinks I have QJ, but he could easily think I have 2 pair or a set. His push, probably means he at least thinks I have 2 pair and beats 2 pair or at least he has AK.

He never raised before the river. Therefore, he never tried to protect AK/a set. This would be odd of someone to never try to protect such a hand and then pushing the river. Even at 2-4, I only see the true donkeys do that. QJ is definitely a distinct possibility, but so is the flush.

What can I put him on?

Air, but he really can't expect me to fold too often and it's a really odd way to play a hand expecting to do some bluff on the river like this. I'd say 5 percent of the time it's air.

A set/two pair. For the reasons I stated above, I'd say it's this 20 percent of the time.

Straight and Flush. The rest of the time I put him on this.

So I guess from here it becomes a math problem. 500ish in the pot, 175 more to call.

25 percent of the time I win 500 for an EV of 125
x percent of the time I win 250 for an EV of x(250)
y percent of the time I lose 175 for an EV of y(-175)

I probably need the guy to have a straight about 45 percent of the time for this call to be good (that'd mean a flush would be 30 percent of the time). I think this makes it close, but it's probably a fold.

Anyway, he had K2 spades for the flush.