How much action on the river?
 

10 handed Party 20/40. My first hand and I post in the CO. Folded to the hijack who raises. He has solid stats (16/10/1.7) but I don't remember him so I don't know how he plays postflop. I 3-bet with 99, SB calls, hijack calls. 3 players, 10 SBs.

Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I don't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. SB checks, hijack bets, I raise, SB check/3-bets, hijack caps, I call, SB calls.

2 players, 11 BBs. Turn is another Q. SB bets, hijack raises, I 3-bet, SB folds, hijack 4-bets, I call.

River is an A, not a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Hijack bets. How many bets am I going here?

Re: How much action on the river?
 

I like just calling since the paired turn didn't keep HiJack from capping the turn.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

He has AQ/KQ like 100% of the time, One you beat one you dont, that river sucked, I raise and just call his three bet, I dont see a solid player 3 betting with KQ, if he has KQ he should just call your raise, if he 3bets i think you got rivered.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I 3-bet with 99, SB calls, hijack calls. 3 players, 10 SBs.

Flop is Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] . I don't have a [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] .

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I hope not.

I call his 3-bet.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
I like just calling since the paired turn didn't keep HiJack from capping the turn.

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This hand is too strong for that. Villain isn't super aggressive, but I can see this being trip queens, 88, or JTs often enough that raising and calling a 3-bet is better.

Maybe someone will do a mathematical analysis of villain's potential hand-range and disagree with me, but with a full house and several holdings that are reasonably behind hero I don't see why putting another 1-2 bets in is bad.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

Should we factor in the chance of Q9 here? I know its a lot less likely but it's a possible hand.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

KQ is pretty unlikely because of the flop cap.

Q9 and Q8 are probably more likely than KQ but still not terribly likely either.

88 and AQ are probably the most likely, with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Qx being more likely than the others, imo.

Edit: forgot JT, JT clubs being most likely.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

S...

I'm raising and calling a three-bet.

Basically, villain's range is basically made up of AQ, KQ, maybe QJ, and 88. Q8 is somewhat of a possibility, though that's pushing it for the standard hijack raising range of a 16/10 type. Q9 similarly, plus for obvious "we have all the 9s" reasons. AA is a very outside possibility, as is a very overplayed JT... He's betting the river with all of these. Since 88 and KQ together clearly make up a greater portion of his range than AQ, I think we need to put in a raise at the river.

If he caps, we can pretty easily eliminate KQ and JT. 88 may not three-bet either. AQ becomes very much the most likely hand at that point, in my opinion. I don't see value in a cap.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

I don't think JTs is likely, but 88 seems like another hand villain could have.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

Edit: Since I messed up this post I'll provide something hopefully useful.
---

Agreed. Villain isn't terribly aggressive either. I think a 3-bet on the paired board would be pretty indicative of AQ, Q8, Q9... although this logic sort of goes against the fact that he probably wouldn't be capping the flop with AQ if he isn't that aggressive.

I'd raise and call a 3-bet since we can probably eliminate or reduce hands like JT and KQ once 3-bet. 2 for 1 deal applies here too.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
oops, misread your post.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope I didn't mess you up by editing... I added that Q9 and Q8 were outside possibilities a bit later.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How many bets am I going here?

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If you don't know the answer, I sure as hell don't either... [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: How much action on the river?
 

You are close to a 2:1 favorite against QQ/88, AQ/KQ/Q9/Q8 and JT. The problem as I see it is that some of these hands can be discarded by the way the hand was played (something like KQ or maybe even AQ). You have to be a 2:1 favorite in order to raise here, but I just don't see it happening. I would call.

Brad

Edit - Brain isn't working.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How much action on the river?

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$40

Re: How much action on the river?
 

Was thinking bout this hand in the shower just now and realized the 2-1 doesn't apply since we are capping.

Since I think 88 is defenetely the most likely hand, I can see capping now.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

1

Re: How much action on the river?
 

If you do raise, you can only call a 3-bet.

I might even just call, since it sure looks like JT.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

1.7AF is fairly passive so i think you can expect to see JT most of the time here. im not sure if a 1.7AF will cap the turn. he didnt cap QQ preflop so that hand is unlikely. 88 is a real big possibility as well.

therefore i raise. took me a while to come to that conclusion however so i think its quite close.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

I think I just call. You are only getting one extra bet from KQ or 88 (we have to assume that this guy is not retarded), but you are going to lose two to AQ or QQ.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

Raise and call a 3-bet. JT+88.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you do raise, you can only call a 3-bet.

I might even just call, since it sure looks like JT.

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why would you just call if you think it is JT? Did you miss that the board paired and we now have a boat?

I do think JTs is possible here but do we think it is capping this turn? I guess if we think he would cap with AQ then he should definitely be capping with JT.

I think raise/call is the play here. Given his hand I think he plays this way with JT, 88, AQ and maybe KQ (Also, Q9 and Q8, but they are limited for obvious reasons). So we are way ahead of most holdings and therefore should maximize the value here by raising.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

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I might even just call, since it sure looks like JT.

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Well, a full house beats a stright. But, I think I wuss out and go one bet here since if it goes to 3 we are in deep crap.

Dave, you going to be in AC this weekend? If so I will see you at the Borgata.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

I'd raise and surely call a 3-bet.

Seriously, how likely do you think it is that this guy caps the flop with AQ?
(this isn't rhetorical [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

-WT

Re: How much action on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise and surely call a 3-bet.

Seriously, how likely do you think it is that this guy caps the flop with AQ?
(this isn't rhetorical [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img])

-WT

[/ QUOTE ]
So what range do you put him on?

Also, fix your location dude... or put some spaces in it or something so that it wraps because it messes up the pages.

Re: How much action on the river?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Dave, you going to be in AC this weekend? If so I will see you at the Borgata.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not this weekend. I'll be seeing Belle and Sebastian on Sunday, though. W00t!

Okay, most people want to raise...
 

I think that I get 3-bet only by better hands. Do people want to call largely because I'm full?

Re: Okay, most people want to raise...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think that I get 3-bet only by better hands. Do people want to call largely because I'm full?

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this would be a rather large raise/fold move on the river. Though I agree it is likely only a better hand is 3betting here unless the guy is a maniac and pumps his pocket 8s one more time or a super maniac and thinks his straight is still good.

i guess if you cannot fold to a 3bet then you should just call?

Results
 

Anyway, the board, in order, is Q98QA and there are approximately a bazillion chips in the post. A hijack with very good stats bets the river after showing nothing but aggression toward my aggression (including 4-betting a turn card that pairs the board). I think for a second or two and call. As expected, he drags the pot with AQ.

Planning to 4-bet the river is absolutely insane IMO.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, the board, in order, is Q98QA and there are approximately a bazillion chips in the post. A hijack with very good stats bets the river after showing nothing but aggression toward my aggression (including 4-betting a turn card that pairs the board). I think for a second or two and call. As expected, he drags the pot with AQ.

Planning to 4-bet the river is absolutely insane IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the 4 bet on the turn that leads me to want to raise this river, just FWIW.

Rob