Continuation bet - how far?
 

Continuation bets.

When revueing my hands I find this is where a lot of my money goes.

Three situations, I find myself in A LOT.
How far do you take it. Assume you're at a LPP table.

1. Hero had AQs in CO. 2 limpers, Hero raises, 3 callers.
Flop. K,7,2r
3 checks, Hero bets, 3 callers.
Turn. T.
3 checks. Hero bets. 2 callers.
River. 4.
2 checks. Hero?

2. Hero has AK in UTG+1. Hero raises. CO calls. Blinds complete.
Flop. Q,7,2r.
BB bets. Hero raises. CO calls. SB folds. BB calls.
Turn.
BB checks. Hero?

3. Hero has TT in CO. MP1 limps.Folds.Hero raises. BB, MP1 call.
Flop. K,7,4r
2 checks. Hero bets. 2 calls.
Turn. J.
2 checks. Hero?

Continuation bets start to make me wretch when you're not catching cards. Especially when you're not catching cards and people keep looking you up because of it. Do you just keep donking away?

It's generally pretty easy when you hit your hand. These situations when you don't hit your hand happen often and seem to be where most of my money goes. Suggestions?

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

linky

In short: bluffing in to a multiway pot is a bad idea. I think this is especially true in limit. Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

If its a passive game against multiple callers and you are in late position go ahead and check and take any free cards offered.

I might venture a bet against 2 passive opponents...but if I'm called and don't improve I'll check it down and fold to a bet.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

Hand 1: check behind on the turn. You picked up a gutshot and this board is as drawless as they get. You are very likely to be up against a made hand here. Try to hit and fold the river if you miss.

Hand 2: Call or fold the flop. I prefer folding. BB bet into 2 players on a drawless board - call if you want to try and hit your A/K, but you have to fold the turn unimproved.

Hand 3: Here I bet again. You have a made hand which is unlikely to improve. You'll get some value when someone calls you down with a worse pair. It's much better to bet the turn here and fold the river unimproved or check behind. If, after betting, you get check/raised on the turn or bet into on the river, you should usually fold.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is quite true. These boards are very unlikely to have hit anyone. Betting with AQ on a K72 board is very often a value bet with the best hand and also hand protection (we'd love to fold A2/Q2/33/etc).

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

I think the situations he outlined are particularly bad because he has so few outs. With 2 overs and/or good draw possibilities I would continue betting into 2 opponents. The TT hand is the only one that looks promising. You could be ahead quite a bit there. Really though, you should just take advantage of your passive opponents here. They let you get away from hands easily and also give you lots of free cards. Just take them.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
linky

In short: bluffing in to a multiway pot is a bad idea. I think this is especially true in limit. Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for the link. 2 questions.
How often would you continuation bet with overcards on a raggedy board when you were the PFR?
How much do you think fold equity increases when you are the PFR? (I always find myself using this as justification for a CB every time)

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

His link seems to answer that. You can't really think about it independently. If you raise, the pot is bigger so they will call more, especially at this level. They might not even notice. How multiway is it? How many times have you made continuation bluffs in the past that ended up getting called down (or you ended up folding to aggression)?

I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice. If they weren't calling stations before they saw you lose with AK in a showdown to bottom pair, they probably will be after.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
How often would you continuation bet with overcards on a raggedy board when you were the PFR?

[/ QUOTE ]

Every time it's +EV to do so.

I know that's kind of a non-answer on par with "it depends," but that's the answer. It's not helpful to know that I tend to CB ~95% of the time in HU situations, ~50% of the time against 2 opponents, and infrequently against 3 or more opponents. That's not what you need to know. What you need to know is the purpose of your bet and the chance that it will succeed in order to estimate the EV of running a CB. EV is all that matters.

People who said that the hand 1 bet is not 100% bluff are correct; it is in fact a semi-bluff with a small value component. But I think it's not unlikely that someone hit the K, and I think it's also not unlikely that someone with just one small pair is set on showing thier hand down. Also, there's less "semi" in your semibluff, since you're often drawing only to an ace, sometimes to a Q also, and you could even be in a reverse-domination nightmare. In hand 1, of "semi", "bluff", and "value", I think "bluff" is the biggest component. It's certianly the most, erm... certian.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That could be true. It might be becasue continuation bets -- +EV ones and -EV ones -- are one of the most common moves on the flop in low-limit HE. Your opponents have seen a million of them.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

As a rule of thumb I suggest:
- always bet vs 1 opponent
- bet vs 2 opponents if:
-- last to act (but you're only really betting for the free card & fold equity so check the turn UI)
-- AK or AJ on a Qxx board (*)
-- if you have a backdoor nuts flush draw
- check vs 3 or more opponents

* - Qxx boards seem the most likely for people to fold in my experience, probably because they are only likely to have 1 overcard at most, it is plausible that it hit you and not many will cold call with Qx. If you're betting with less than AK then Axx or Kxx boards are bad news and Jxx or lower isn't that plausible that it hit you.

Of course, individual circumstances and reads on your opponents should mean at least as much as any general rules.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

I really think that trying to apply general rules to this situation is a mistake. I don't like general rules in poker overall, but I especially don't like them here. You have less margain for error.

Drop that Kool-Aid!

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

Oh certainly, hence my last comment. A "rule of thumb" should only apply if you have absolutely no other information on your opponent(s).

[ QUOTE ]
Drop that Kool-Aid!

[/ QUOTE ]
Had to Google to get that reference - we don't have Kool-Aid in the UK [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That could be true. It might be becasue continuation bets -- +EV ones and -EV ones -- are one of the most common moves on the flop in low-limit HE. Your opponents have seen a million of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regarding the way we play Low-Limit Hold' Em this probably accounts for a big percentage of our profitability.

Think about it. When you Raise Pre-Flop and actually have a made hand after the Flop, can you think of anything that you wouldn't bet if checked to? Few times if any are correct. What about when you flop a big draw and it's checked to you?

Toss in a few continuation bets and our observant opponent is wasting his time. This bet becomes one of the most effective ways to disguise our current hand and hands to come.

Not only that, but when we are just as likely to be betting AA as an OESD, how do our passive opponents feel about raising TPGK? If they could somehow find a raise against another player, they still might not against you. Few people realize how much profit they earn by lulling their opponents into this passive standard.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh certainly, hence my last comment. A "rule of thumb" should only apply if you have absolutely no other information on your opponent(s).

[ QUOTE ]
Drop that Kool-Aid!

[/ QUOTE ]
Had to Google to get that reference - we don't have Kool-Aid in the UK [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Where do your nations children get all their precious vitamins and nutrients?

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Where do your nations children get all their precious vitamins and nutrients?

[/ QUOTE ]

McDonalds, just like the rest of the world! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

In hand 1, you really should have checked the turn. You are betting into a fairly large field; the odds that someone has something is fairly good, and most of those hands are going to be pair+ hands, since this board is as dry as they come.

Given the way you played it, check the river. The odds of you being best now are slim, but the odds of either both players folding or calling with a worse hand are abysmal.

Hand 2 unless you have a read of BB auto-betting flops like that you need to either peel and fold the turn UI or just fold now with the field to act. Chasing overs with no backdoor draws is bad news.

Hand 3 is worth a bet, as you actually have a hand with some showdown value.

If I bet, this is my plan for the river:

If both fold, next hand plz.
If one player folds I am betting any river card not an ace.
If both players call I am checking behind if they check to me.
If both players call and the BB bets the river, I am calling if MP folds and probably folding if MP calls.
If both players call and MP donks, I am either raising (as I do not want the BB overcalling) or folding (if I think MP is making this play only with a better hand).

If you get checkraised on the turn... play some poker. >_< Against loose/passives you would have to at least think about folding, as you have no draws to speak of.

-K

Kool Aid (OT)
 

Funny. I never really considered the international implications of the semantics behind my avatar.

Heh. I probably won't start now. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Understand that the bet you are talking about (when you missed the flop completely) is a bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think this is quite true. These boards are very unlikely to have hit anyone. Betting with AQ on a K72 board is very often a value bet with the best hand and also hand protection (we'd love to fold A2/Q2/33/etc).

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, time to show my ignorance. I don't see how we have the best hand if there is an A2/Q2/33 out there against us. Perhaps you meant or hand protection? It's still a bluff in the sense that you have a very weak draw without the best hand.

And, another thing I'm working on is distinguishing the statistics (how likely something is to happen) from the actual instance (when something happens). Now, as you say these flops are unlikely to have hit anyone, but occasionally they do! My experience playing with poor players in the micros is that one of these players betting into one of these flops means they hit part of it.

A small anecdote. Feynman was giving a talk at Cal Tech and he started his talk by saying as he was walking to the lecture hall from the parking lot he saw a car with the license plate (2FB 755). He then asked, what were the odds of that happening?

Well, of course, it's extremely unlikely that he would see that precise license plate that night, but it isn't at all unlikely that he would see at least one license plate. Asking what the odds were of seeing the license plate he saw is asking the wrong question. I often wonder if that's what people are doing in these forums when they talk about flops being unlikely to have hit anyone.

Am I just being ignorant here?

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still think failed continuation bets are the one read that even weak players notice.

[/ QUOTE ]

That could be true. It might be becasue continuation bets -- +EV ones and -EV ones -- are one of the most common moves on the flop in low-limit HE. Your opponents have seen a million of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about it. When you Raise Pre-Flop and actually have a made hand after the Flop, can you think of anything that you wouldn't bet if checked to? Few times if any are correct. What about when you flop a big draw and it's checked to you?


[/ QUOTE ]

You could be exposing yourself to a c/r. This depends on villain, but if they know you bet with big cards+draw, and figure this is more likely than big pair, then they may be check-raising. I don't like betting into 3-4 players after the flop misses, especially if I don't have any draw (short of runner, runner & pairing overcards). I'm talking about a LAGgy table here, not a bunch of LPPs.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, time to show my ignorance. I don't see how we have the best hand if there is an A2/Q2/33 out there against us. Perhaps you meant or hand protection? It's still a bluff in the sense that you have a very weak draw without the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was referring to hand protection. Many opponents here would fold those hands to a flop continuation bet and that would be great for you as it increases the chance you'll win the pot.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You could be exposing yourself to a c/r. This depends on villain, but if they know you bet with big cards+draw, and figure this is more likely than big pair, then they may be check-raising.

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Sure you could. This isn't the end of the world though when you have a big draw - and likely means they'll pay you off when you hit. And isn't it great when you get check/raised on a T72 board holding KK?

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like betting into 3-4 players after the flop misses, especially if I don't have any draw (short of runner, runner & pairing overcards).

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't change the fact that it can be the right play. But it's not often necessary to bet into that many players. 1-2 opponents is almost manditory though on most boards.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm talking about a LAGgy table here, not a bunch of LPPs.

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It's one thing if they are a bunch of maniacs, but lags are often reasonable players postflop and will fold when they miss. Folding 1-2 players with a flop bet will do wonders to increase the likelyhood of you winning. And it still may be a valuebet with the best hand.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1: check behind on the turn. You picked up a gutshot and this board is as drawless as they get. You are very likely to be up against a made hand here. Try to hit and fold the river if you miss.

Hand 2: Call or fold the flop. I prefer folding. BB bet into 2 players on a drawless board - call if you want to try and hit your A/K, but you have to fold the turn unimproved.

Hand 3: Here I bet again. You have a made hand which is unlikely to improve. You'll get some value when someone calls you down with a worse pair. It's much better to bet the turn here and fold the river unimproved or check behind. If, after betting, you get check/raised on the turn or bet into on the river, you should usually fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is pretty much how I play these hands. I don't fold the flop in hand 2, we're getting 9:1 on our call and BB could be donking this with any pieceof the board.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

I posted a bit of a quiz to help in my own continuation bet lines here about two weeks ago. May help.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

I definitely prefer raising the flop in hand #2 to flat calling since most players I've found in Party low limit will give you a free turn card if you miss so why not raise the pot and go for the free card? You can always fold if bet into on the turn but I find most times you will get two chances to spike your overcards for only one Sb. If you flat call you're asking to be bet into on the turn which is no fun if you don't improve.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

I didn't know a "continuation bet" was even a part of limit hold em. I'm familiar with the term in NL as it is defined in Harrington's books (HoH 1&2).

Basically a continuation bet is when you as the preflop bettor bet again on the flop when the flop has missed you

Here is a good HoH summary: You have AKo, you obviously raise preflop, say you get 1-2 callers, flop comes 3 number cards, rainbow. If you make the next action it would be a continuation bet and should typically be in the range of about half the pot. Whether or not you should make a continuation bet depends on

1. The number of opponents, the fewer the better.
2. The ragged'ness of the flop. The more ragged the better.
3. The tightness of your opponents, the tighter the better.

If the conditions are right you make the contination bet. By making it 1/2 the pot you only need to succeed 1 out of 3 times to make it a break even play. This is of course assuming you are "stealing" the pot, as you very well might not be and still could have the best hand.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

*BUMP*

I needed a reminder myself. I am dying a death of a thousand cuts at the moment against the muppets on Party. I'm bleeding sooooooo much.

I played an entire session this morning for (.5BB). I think I could count the number of times people folded to my continuation bets on one hand.

Make some money.....read.

[censored] mother [censored] you called with Q2 you [censored]!

Rant over....enjoy.

Re: Continuation bet - how far?
 

1. Check, one of 'em has you beat and will call

2. Check, you raised in the off chance you'll get a free card, may as well take it without much going for you. He bet into a PFR on an uncoordinated flop so he has either a decent PP he will showdown or a Q he is hoping has showdown value.

3. I bet. No one has stood up to you thus far and if they finally do I would drop it. If it goes to river I probably take a free showdown with two overcards not scaring him away...