Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Bear with me on this one.....

I am putting a friend into a decent sized buyin land based event next month. The field will be right around 100 people. Starting stack 10k, one hour levels, top9 pay out (may be top 18 if a few more then 100 show up, but 10th-18th will basically be buyin back).

Here is the scenario. I know that my friend is at LEAST the 3rd best player that will be in the tournament. There are 2 other people that are comparable in skill to him, but I'm not sure if they have ever played a live event, or one as high a buyin as this, or even anything with these long levels, so it wouldn't be a stretch to say that my friend would be the best player in this event. I was going over some specific situations with him just now, preparing him for higher-level tournament thinking, when for the first time in my life I came across the old "would you fold aces" scenario.

Stop.

Listen.

Seriously.

Here is my contention: If you get kings in the first level, raise to 100 (blinds start at 25-25), and someone pushes allin after you, I said to him "you have to fold that". He disagreed. I said that even if he said "I'm allin" and turned over jacks you STILL had to fold this. He reminded me that that would basically be the same situation as if you had aces and someone did the same thing (way way overbet allin preflop). MY contention was that the EV of you being in the tournament...as the most highly skilled player there....at 10k in chips is going to be higher than your EV of having 20k in chips 80% of the time and not being there the other 20% of the time. He disagreed, and said that you should ALWAYS play aces allin pre, and 99% of the time play kings allin pre. I was wondering if anyone had any thoughts on this.


The readers digest version: 100-125 person live tournament with a very slow structure, filled with all online players. You are the best person in the tournament. Is it worth it, in the first level, to play a pot for all of your chips preflop, even if you KNOW you have the best hand? I say no, because against these players, you will chip up regardless by playing smaller pots and outplaying them over the course of the 2-3 days, and the risk of busting out 20% of the time isn't worth the reward of doubling up 80% of the time. You will more than likely get the chips anyway, it will just take a little bit more work.

Any thoughts?

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Cmon of course you want to go allin as an 80% favorite!

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

This is a pretty ridiculous post, its just poker no one has that much of an advantage, call all-in as an 80% favorite.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

well 1) if you raise to 100 w/ KK and someone pushes for 10k... yea fold it.

2) if you raise to 100 and someone pushes and exposes JJ... uh call in a heartbeat.


You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

edit: even as the best player in the tournament, he won't cash more than 30% of the time. (Normally i'd say 20%.. but in a smaller field w/ deep stacks, could be a bit more)

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]



You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not true at all. I've played many tournament where I've built my stack up to over 10 times the starting stack, never exposing more than 33% of my stack on any one hand.

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

My first thought is that I disagree completely. Even if you're the best player in the tourney, short term luck is a huge factor in any MTT. There simply aren't enough hands in any MTT to overcome the enormous variance in play. The best player in the tourney might consider passing in a small edge for all his chips. But on AA vs. JJ? I don't buy it.

The slow blind structure is an interesting twist, but I still believe that this is simply too much of an edge to pass up.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]

Any thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's definitely bad to depend on 'dominant favorites' for surviving in MTT tournaments, but the immediate double up is fairly crucial for your budddy here, especially as a 80/20 favorite. He can build himself a stack to maneuver through the field and give himself a better chance at the final table.

Or, he can go card dead for a few hours and still have a stack to work with.

Yes, your bud is the 2nd-3rd best guy there. But you still need cards to win, just like all MTT's. He's not gonna makes it to the end just by outplaying. Those extra 10k chips are very vital.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Let's look at it from another angle. ICM values an early double-up at roughly 1.9 buyins, but of course, it doesn't take skill into account.

looking at the numbers, .8 * 1.9 + .2 * 0 = 1.52. So your EV is 152% here if you're an average player. But of course, your friend is not an average player.

What would you guess his EV is with 1 buyin vs with 2? A very very good player may have a 100% roi giving him a 200% EV for one buyin. But that same player will also have more than 152% EV after an early double-up. He'll likely be able to leverage his early big stack into more chips.

His skill created a 100% ev shift at one buyin. It only needs to make a 33% ev shift at two buyins for calling with an 80% edge to be correct. The math clearly favors calling.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

By raising/folding you create the illusion of being weak; you still have close to 9900 and the blinds are still only a very small percentage of your stack. You're sure you're one of the best players there which means you can outplay your entire table after the flop. If you call the all-in you're throwing away your advantage. Instead, fold and take with you the information that the raiser is an overaggressive fish who overbets premium hands and the impression that you might be weak and wait for opportunities to milk your advantage. Doubling up early is nice but not necessary for this player. The risk of going out right away is too big.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

I don't get it. Is there a player in the world that is good enough to pass up on a 4/1?

Am I missing something?

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Short answer - no. Obviously.

But here's a hypothetical to make this more interesting. OP said this was a home tourney where his friend is one of the top 2 or 3. Let's assume that the other 97 players are awful. None have ever read a book on poker, talked with a good player, or been exposed to how to play well in any other way. They will play any hand with a face card, any pair, and the size of their bets always telegraphs the relative strength of their hand. Is it possible that a good player against such weak competition would have so many +EV situations that they could actually do best by avoiding all-ins in order to decrease variance? I think its possible. If not, how about if the other 97 people play completely randomly - any two cards are good and calling vs. raising is random?

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Posts like this always amaze me. I can't fathom people who feel they are going to outplay a large field by passing up 80-20 edges. It doesn't make any sense at all.

Specially considering how much doubling up will be worth to a superior player who knows how to utilize a big stack.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
Posts like this always amaze me. I can't fathom people who feel they are going to outplay a large field by passing up 80-20 edges. It doesn't make any sense at all.

Specially considering how much doubling up will be worth to a superior player who knows how to utilize a big stack.

[/ QUOTE ]

If it were ealy in the tourney, and I have lots left behind me to act, I fold. If I'm last or v. close to it, and it's just the all-inner, and the tourney's just started OR the guy is wildish, I'm all in and praying for no ace.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
Let's assume that the other 97 players are awful. None have ever read a book on poker, talked with a good player, or been exposed to how to play well in any other way. They will play any hand with a face card, any pair, and the size of their bets always telegraphs the relative strength of their hand. Is it possible that a good player against such weak competition would have so many +EV situations that they could actually do best by avoiding all-ins in order to decrease variance?

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't see how you can avoid all ins versus a field like that. Donks like that would love to go all in over the top of you with lots of dodgy hands and call things they shouldnt.

Your edge will be huge, but you will still need to win the 80-20's.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
If it were ealy in the tourney, and I have lots left behind me to act, I fold. If I'm last or v. close to it, and it's just the all-inner, and the tourney's just started OR the guy is wildish, I'm all in and praying for no ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
OP said you should fold KK even if you knew villain has JJ. Which means he thought you should fold AA to an all in. So no need to pray for no ace.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

For me it depends on the size of the buy in and how long before I got another chance, if it were a big buy in tourney.

To be honest as much as a complete pussy it would leave me feeling I think I may be able to lay down A-A at this stage.

But then again probably not, i just love turning those badboys over and seeing the bloodrush from the other guys face!! [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If it were ealy in the tourney, and I have lots left behind me to act, I fold. If I'm last or v. close to it, and it's just the all-inner, and the tourney's just started OR the guy is wildish, I'm all in and praying for no ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
OP said you should fold KK even if you knew villain has JJ. Which means he thought you should fold AA to an all in. So no need to pray for no ace.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm taking this as not knowing the villain's cards. JJ I all in if I think 0 or 1 other will also come in.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

I get what you are saying and I am always playing with thought that I will outplay them later in the tournament when I fold a nice hand. But that's only when I am feeling that my opponent got a stronger hand than me even tho mine is nice as hell.

Folding AA here preflop to an all in because you can outplay them later don't sound too good. You should take any chance to dubble up in a tournament, doesn't matter if it's early or late in a tournament. So if he bust you, big deal really, I'm sure there will be more tournaments of this kind soon where you can take your revenge.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Hi

I would never fold Kings pre-flop since the only hand you will fear is AA, and if you crush an opponent you will have an even bigger advantage over your opponents. In most tournaments you will have to gamble to win and I believe that this is one of those chances. Anyway I found this in the NL forum

Kings preflop

Best regards

sunek

P.S. Let us know if this case actually happens - I doubt it [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]



You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not true at all. I've played many tournament where I've built my stack up to over 10 times the starting stack, never exposing more than 33% of my stack on any one hand.

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a better idea. How about if you come back and ask again once you have "actually put some thought into it," because I don't think you have. The issue of whether there is a risk-free way to accumulate chips has been discussed to death on this forum, and the answer is no. Why do you suppose so many world-class players bust out on the first day of the WSOP?

Yes, sometimes there will be tournaments where everything goes smoothly and you steadily accumulate chips. But that doesn't mean you're doing so without luck. The other players still have two cards, and you are getting lucky every time they fail to hit their hand and have to fold. There is no way that any method of collecting "small pots" will end up giving you a better than 80% chance to double up.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

if he isn't willing to take a 80-20 shot, he isn't the best player in the field

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
if he isn't willing to take a 80-20 shot, he isn't the best player in the field

[/ QUOTE ]
Agree - not getting as much as possible in with such a big advantage is lame poker

Re: Tom McEvoy\'s answer
 

I e-mailed a similar question to Tom McEvoy (poker pro). Here's the scenario:

- very first hand of the $10,000 WSOP Main Event
- you have AA under the gun and raise it to 3xBB
- next person (amateur Internet player) re-raises all-in
- all fold to you
- you put him on AA or KK
- Do you make this call?

Tom McEvoy's answer:
"I would call instantly with AA before the flop on an opponents move in bet. You have to win a lot of chips in order to be successful in the tournament. What are you going to wait for--a better starting hand headsup? Tom McEvoy"

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Aaron,

We've had several threads like this. I suggest you read this one and read Paul Phillips' and Greg Raymer's comments, two people I'm sure you know put some "thought into this."

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...art=1&vc=1

Paul Phillips' first comment:
"I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early, and that NOBODY is good enough to intentionally refuse a 60/40 edge early. Repeatedly applying a 60/40 edge would make you one of the top players in tournament poker."

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Do you have information that there's a 30% chance that everyone else at the tournament will get the flu and leave in level one?

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]



You're going to have to win some allins to win this, doesnt matter if it's early or late, if you know you're best, you get your money in.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not true at all. I've played many tournament where I've built my stack up to over 10 times the starting stack, never exposing more than 33% of my stack on any one hand.

Anyone who has actually put some thought in this, please chime in, I'd love to hear your opinions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey Aaron,

A month ago I would not have known what you meant. But after playing the WCOOP main event I would have to agree. It is just so easy to keep accumulating chips against weak players. I don't have experience in tournaments with deep structures other then that event because I only play online as of now, but I wonder , what is the chance of building your stack to double what you started with when you are easily the best player at the table? My gut instinct says you should be calling if you know they have a smaller pair. Theoretically, if you felt you were 80% to double up at some point even after this folding this hand, wouldn't you want to call anyway? Certainly having a larger stack early on as a very skilled player is going to be very beneficial, and will further increase your odds of accumulating even more chips.

-Jeff

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
I am putting a friend into a decent sized buyin land based event next month.

[/ QUOTE ]

it's a good thing it's not the other way around.

look at the 'anthology' thread that is stickied. this has been discussed ad nauseam.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

There has been some threads about this (not one recently though). The common wisdom in this forum is that you should take any 50.000001% flip early. I don't agree with that, and I have stated some of my reasons in those threads.

Thread about this issue #1

Thread about this issue #2

But I think the 80% is just too much for anybody to give up, I think maybe even 60% is just too much.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Is the consensus really to take any (on the good side) coinflip w/ insignificant pot odds?

I was uunder the impresion that it's alright to be in coinflips, but not in a 1:1 risk:reward situation. And i can't imagine that the top posters here would do that.

-

The times i'll coinflips are when im' getting like 1.3:1 or better.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

You can make a case for taking a 51% flip, but the reality is, these threads never involve passing on a 51% flip. They always involve someone passing up a much larger edge, and then when they hear that you need to press your edges, they respond by saying, "Oh, so are you telling me I have to take every 50.000001% flip?"

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
Paul Phillips' first comment:
"I've said I'll take ANY edge (or even ANY COIN FLIP) early,

[/ QUOTE ]

Keyword: ANY

And I'm pretty sure most posters here agree with Paul.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

he'll take a coinflip, but he's not taking it w/ 1:1 odds.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Yes, of course, but I repeat, these statements never come up in the context of a 51% edge. The point is that they don't feel like drawing a line and saying "54% is good enough, but I'd pass on 53%," particularly because you can never quantify decisions that tightly anyway. But the only situations where a 51% edge actually gets discussed are completely theoretical ones like "he flips over his cards and he has XX, what do you do?"

Arguing about whether you should take a 51% or 52% or whatever edge is a pointless hair-splitting exercise. The reason it is pointless is that the "fold AA" posts and the like are NEVER CLOSE DECISIONS! So yeah, after about 10 people say "don't fold AA," someone will say "ok, but for the sake of argument, what if you know you have a 51% edge..."

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
he'll take a coinflip, but he's not taking it w/ 1:1 odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yes, by coin flip he means a true coinflip.

quoting Paul P.

[ QUOTE ]
I've already said many times that I'll take any non-negative edge on the first hand of a tournament, including a true coin flip (you move in blind in the SB, I call blind in the BB.) That's not just an abstraction of this point: I mean it.


[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Agreed.

For some nerdy reason, I'm interested in this theoretically.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he'll take a coinflip, but he's not taking it w/ 1:1 odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yes, by coin flip he means a true coinflip.

quoting Paul P.

[ QUOTE ]
I've already said many times that I'll take any non-negative edge on the first hand of a tournament, including a true coin flip (you move in blind in the SB, I call blind in the BB.) That's not just an abstraction of this point: I mean it.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure most players here don't agree w/ Paul on that point and I'm also pretty sure that most players on here don't have time worth as much as PP's.

We need to distinguish between $EV (taking one's time into consideration) and tourney$EV (i.e. maximizing one's EV in *this* tournament). I'm sure if you pressed PP about the issue, he wouldn't take a 'true coin flip' if he was trying to maximize his tourney$EV. I bet he also wouldn't think twice about taking TT v. AKo in a BvB situation on hand 1 of the WSOP.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he'll take a coinflip, but he's not taking it w/ 1:1 odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh yes, by coin flip he means a true coinflip.

quoting Paul P.

[ QUOTE ]
I've already said many times that I'll take any non-negative edge on the first hand of a tournament, including a true coin flip (you move in blind in the SB, I call blind in the BB.) That's not just an abstraction of this point: I mean it.


[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]


Wow, that's pretty ridiculous, and like Soss said i don't think most posters here would agree with that.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Did Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow again today?

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

Me vs GambleAB

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (8 handed) converter

UTG (t3120)
UTG+1 (t1460)
MP1 (t3100)
MP2 (t2860)
CO (t2830)
Button (t6240)
Hero (t1500)
BB (t4390)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t3100</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, Hero calls t1490 (All-In), <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls t3080.

Flop: (t7720) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Turn: (t7720) 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t7720) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t7720



irony baby.

Re: Question re: EV allins in the first hour of a live tournament
 

[ QUOTE ]
Agreed.

For some nerdy reason, I'm interested in this theoretically.

[/ QUOTE ]

Theoretically speaking, you should be careful about taking poker advice from people who don't need the money. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]