Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

Week #4 line O/U
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>Sun 10/2/05<font color="green">
Bills at Saints - pick'em over 39
Broncos at Jaguars -4 over 37
Lions at Buccaneers -7 over 34
Texans at Bengals -10 under 42.5
Colts at Titans +7 over 45
Eagles at Chiefs -2.5 over 46
Chargers at Patriots -5.5 over 47
Seahawks at Redskins -2 under 36.5
Rams at Giants -3 under 46.5
Jets at Ravens -7.5 under 31.5
Cowboys at Raiders -3 over 46
Vikings at Falcons -6 over 45
49ers at Cardinals -3 over 42

Bye- Bears, Dolphins, Browns, Steelers </font>

Mon 10/3/05<font color="purple">
Packers at Panthers -8 over 43</font>
</pre><hr />

Only one home dog this week- interesting.

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 - Jets
$300 - Colts under 45
$200 - Colts -7
$100 - Raiders -3

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Eagles
$300 Raiders
$200 Patriots
$100 Buccaneers

My Picks
 

At this pace, I'll want to know what the record loss for a season is soon.

400$ Raiders Absolute desperation game, have looked good in all 3 losses.

300$ Texans Fade the Bar Stools

200$ 49ers McCowan is a joke

100$ Chiefs Home cooking

Record loss
 

Check the "Results" thread for the link to last year's results

Re: Record loss
 

No matter how bad it gets, I'll keep picking [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Although, I will be fading my own picks shortly.

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

If my picks were a WR, I'd have been Marvin Harrison for the first 2 weeks - just quietly getting it done. OK last week not so much when I decided to pull a Freddy Mitchell and just talk. Hopefully we'll go Terrell Owens this week and do both.

$400 - Jets +7.5 - Can you name the starting QB's in this game? Me neither. The Ravens handed me my only 2 losses for the first 2 weeks, so they're on pace to become my dreaded enemy with the inevitable backdoor cover with a defensive TD in the closing seconds against Bonnie Bernstein or whoever is under center for the Jets. Nevertheless, this group has always been a gritty road team under Herm with the exception of week 1 this year. And lets face it, you'll never hear anybody say: "I wouldn't want to give an offensive guru like Brian Billick 2 weeks to prepare for my team". Just smells like a 13-10 game.

$300 - Houston +10 - I've already commented on this game, but unlike Sean Salisbury, I'm not ready to call this Bengals D one of the league's best.

$200 - New Orleans PK - I've seen a lot of bad QB play in my tenure as a Bills fan. Todd Collins, Billy Joe Hobert, Rob Johnson, Doug Flutie, Drew Bledsoe....I don't remember any of those guys managing to lose a game despite winning the turnover battle AND getting their RB to rush for 140 yards...at home. How is that even possible? Now he's got to play on the road vs. a good pass-rush and likely one of the most fired up crowds in recent memory. Also, look for McAllister to have a big game receiving with Spikes out and a gimpy Fletcher.

$100 - Chiefs -2.5 - Here's my new "conference tiers" theory. Take each conference and divide the teams into three tiers: Good, average, and bad. When an NFC team plays an AFC team from a respective equal tier, the AFC team pretty much always wins, especially at home. Seattle-Jacksonville on opening day was a pretty good example of this. I still think the Chiefs are in the "good" category despite Monday night, so this feels a little like last year's Philly-Pittsburgh game to me. Of course the preceeding Saints pick makes no sense according to this theory, but hey, Terrell Owens doesn't make any sense either.

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Raiders
$300 Eagles
$200 Giants
$100 Saints

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Giants -4
$300 Falcons -7
$200 49ers +3
$100 Colts -7

My Picks
 

$400 Titans under
$300 Jets
$200 Texans
$100 Panthers

After fading myself the first few weeks to a mediocre +500, in my arrogance have broken with that tactic ... here comes the inevitable collapse ...

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

Alright. I suck at this. Fade away.


$400 Seahawks
$300 Bills (I know Losman sucks. But the Saints have just been terrible)
$200 Jets (I don't see enough points being scored in this game to make this a 7 point win for the Ravens)
$100 Giants (Bill Simmons told me never to back Martz on the road. Ever. So...go Eli?)

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Ravens
$300 Cardinals
$200 Bills
$100 Raiders

My Picks
 

$400 Raiders
$300 Patriots under
$200 Titans
$100 Patriots

My picks
 

$400 Seahawks/Redskins OVER
$300 Jets
$200 49ers
$100 Chargers/Patriots UNDER


Seahawks/Redskins OVER36.5. This will likely be a run oriented game, but these are not the inept offenses nor the dominating defenses one would expect with a 36.5 total.

Jets +7.5. Just when I claim to be fading the Jets, they get a juicy line like this. Game will be way too low scoring to be giving 7.5 points.

49ers+3. The Cards have shown nothing so far and the 49ers have played a couple of decent games. I'll take the FG at a neutral site.

Chargers/Patriots UNDER47. Is this really the highest scoring game of the week?

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

My picks:
$400 49ers/Cardinals OVER
$300 Packers +8
$200 Texans +10
$100 Vikings +6

My picks week 4
 

400 Texans + 10
300 Cowboys + 3
200 Giants - 3
100 Jets + 7.5

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

Missed last week, but I'm back for my pursuit of the "fade me" title.

$400 Packers +8
$300 Vikings +6
$200 49ers +3
$100 Buccaneers -7

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

It's been a rough, rough couple of weeks. Time to turn it around by going 4-0... I'm going to include some logic with my picks, but I do so at the same time telling everyone that I'm terrible at this.

I do think it's good to give reasoning, and I do think it's good to have faith in your reasoning. So even though I'd never trust myself with more than $20 on these, I'm giving my picks + reasoning ...

$400 - Raiders. The best winless team in the NFL, I think. They looked good against Philly and lost a tough one. They'll be looking to make a statement at home against a mediocre Dallas team. I hate this pick, however, because I think the public is overwhelmingly taking Oakland and that just doesn't bode well.

$300 - Texans. The Bengals have not played a tight game yet, and no one blows them all out. That's probably the worst logic you can have, but I think they're due. Texans will cover.

$200 - Packers. Favre and more than a touchdown? Ok. Panthers are overrated and the Packers aren't as bad as everyone says. I like Favre, and I think Green Bay may win this outright after a tight loss last week.

$100 - Eagles. I actually just saw this line, but after MNF I can't believe K.C. is spotting Philly points. Kansas City just looked ineffective on Monday, and is coming off short rest. Philly wins this one outright as well. This is another bet where everyone likes the Eagles though, so watch me get burned. I was going to pick against Washington, just because they're Washington, but this line jumped out at me.

My Picks
 

Bengals $400
Raiders $300
Seahawks $200
Chargers $100

My Picks - Jedi
 

I seem to actually bet against what I pick here. I suck here, I'm making some money in real life. Maybe I can correlate the picks this week.

$400 - Houston +10 - As outlined in a previous post, I think the public is overloving Cincy, and this might be the Bar Stool Pundit theory pick of the week.

$300 - Vikings +6 - Vikes poised for a comeback?

$200 - Eagles +2.5 - NFC champs still should win this game.

$100 - Titans +7 - Picking the only home dog this week.

My Picks
 

I'll add a little commentary this week in support of the folks like McGahee who risk being maligned by hindsight, but put themselves out there anyway. I know very little about this, however, so I don't recommend anyone taking me seriously.

$400 Giants -3
$300 Chargers +5.5
$200 Jaguars -4
$100 49ers +3

I thought that the Giants, and especially Eli were pretty composed on Sunday night. The Rams have been awful on the road (they barely scraped out of Arizona with the win), the Giants respectable at home (if we include the NO game), so I'll stick with that pattern.

Seems like too many points to give San Diego against a depleted New England squad. They're at home, of course, but if Carolina can catch them off guard, so can San Diego. The win helped the Chargers, but 1-3 is still pretty ugly, so they should have that same intensity they displayed on Sunday night.

The Jags have looked pretty solid so far, whereas the Broncs will have a short week's rest, and may be a team that struggles on the road.

My "just for fun" $100 pick, which is the only one that came through last week. There are a few non-believers out there, but the Niners have at least kept pace with (and in one case beaten) two mediocre teams, and Arizona is mediocre at best. There's no real home-field advantage, Warner's out, so why the three points?

My Picks
 

$400 Chargers
$300 Eagles
$200 Jags
$100 Cowboys

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

First time for me in this thread this year.

Seems like a lot of people are jumping on the Texans at +10 this week. The thinking must be, Houston can't possibly be as bad as they've looked, and there's no way Cincy is as good as they've looked. Both probably true. Will this be one of those games that goes differently then how it looks on paper so far?

I don't think so. Cincy has handled Houston twice before in the Dom Capers era with worse teams than they have now, and I don't see any reason for things to change this week. With two non division road games coming up, and considering their past, the Bengals have no reason to psychologically look past this game (like they might if they had Pittsburgh in week 5). I don't see Cincy taking this game for granted, I see them hungry and poised to lay a whooping on a team they matchup well with, playing at home. I'll take Cincinnati -10 , and I also like Cin/Hou over 42.5 .

I've also seen a few people take the under in the Colts/Titans game....I'm going to go with recent history and take Ind/Ten over 45 . The Titans haven't been able to stop Indy's O the last two years, and haven't been able to stop anyone this year except for Baltimore. Low scoring games for Indy bring the line down - I think it's back to normal this week.

Hopefully Willie Roaf is back for the Chiefs - I like them at home, Kan -2 1/2 .

$400 Bengals
$300 Ind/Ten over
$200 Chiefs
$100 Cin/Hou over

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Jets +7
$300 Seahawks +2
$200 Cowboys +3
$100 Vikings +6

My Picks
 

$400 Cowboys/Raiders o46
$300 Bills/Saints o39
$200 Patriots
$100 Eagles

My Picks
 

$400 Colts at Titans UNDER 45
$300 Seahawks + 2
$200 Jets at Ravens UNDER 31.5
$100 Bengals -10

my picks
 

400 Cowboys/Raiders o46
300 Eagles
200 Seahawks
100 Buccaneers

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

400 Jets
300 49ers
200 Lions o34
100 Giants

My picks
 

$400 Patriots - 5 1/2
$300 49ers +3
$200 Seahawks +2
$100 Chiefs - 2 1/2

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Eagles +2.5
$300 Cardinals -3
$200 Detroit +7
$100 Bengals -10

My picks
 

I think I missed last week, but here are this weeks picks:

$400-49ers
$300-Raiders
$200-Colts
$100-Vikings

My picks
 

$400 - Panthers -8
$300 - Colts -7
$200 - 49ers +3
$100 - Cowboys +3.5

This is what I believe to pick, but given the last two weeks, I don't have enough faith in my matchups to bet these games.

For instance the Cowboys should pass to their hearts content with the Raider's pass rush. But Lamont Jordan should be able to tear through the lines and (maybe) give the Collins to Moss connection enough time.

There is nothing to make me bet the colts (and the spreads) until I see Peyton show back up.

The 49ers look good until you realize everyone and their brother sees a bay area teaser (6.5 will cover the three for the raiders and 7 for the 49ers) - and those rarely workout.

I can also see the 'unexplained' win by Greenbay this week so that the networks can talk about Brett Favre like it was the mid 90's (not that I'm into conspiracies).

Lastsamurai\'s Picks
 

Jets under 31.5 + 400
Cowboys -3 +200
Jets + 7 .5 +300
Jags -4 100

ok...this game looks too easy to pick the ravens so i had to go with my instincts... the question is do you think anthony wright is that much of a better QB than bollinger? I could see the jets putting up an 8 man front forcing this guy to throw... I see a tight conservative low scoreing game.

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Bengals -10
$300 49ers +3
$200 Falcons -6
$100 Packers +8

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Patriots -5.5
$300 Jaguars -4
$200 Cowboys/Raiders O 46
$100 Lions/Bucs Over 34

Re: Official Week #4 lines for \"3+1 Challenge\"
 

$400 Titans
$300 Bills/Saints over
$200 Cowboys/Raiders over
$100 Cardinals/49ers over

My Picks
 

400-Texans/Bengals over 42.5
300-Texans +10
200-Chargers +5.5
100-Raiders -3

Texans/Bengals over 42.5 ...Cinci's offense has shown they can score some points. They should hold up their end of this no problem. However, I think their defense is currently overrated because of all the turnovers they've gotten in the last two games. Houston has some weapons and should be able to hold up their end too.

Texans +10 ...Season over/under win totals for these teams were 8.5 for Cinci and 7.5 for Houston. Pretty close. Now, three weeks into the season, with both teams still healthy, one of them is 10 point favorites? That's a lot in the NFL. I think this line is off because the public is starting to fall in love with the Bengals. Gimme the points.

Chargers +5.5 ...Even with everyone healthy I'd like the points here. San Diego should be able to keep this close with LT running the ball. What scares me about this pick is New England's passing attack vs. SD's secondary who looked like crap against the Giants the other night.

Raiders -3 ...They're gonna win sooner or later and they match up against the porous(like in sieve) Dallas pass defense well. I'd probably move this pick up except for two things. 1. It's the Raiders who find a way to lose quite well, and 2. This is turning into a BSP pick.

My picks
 

$400- Bengals
$300- Jets
$200- Pack
$100- Pats

My Picks
 

400-Chargers
300-Saints
200-Falcons
100-Cowboys

Re: My picks
 

$400 Seahawks
$300 Panthers
$200 Cardinals
$100 Texans