JJ hand that got ugly
 

This is a JJ hand I had recently that got ugly. Does anyone think you're ahead at the river? Comments on all streets appreciated.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">5 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

Turn: (7.75 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (13.75 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds, BB calls.

Final Pot: 15.75 BB

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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There is no way hero is good on the river, like ever.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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There is no way hero is good on the river, like ever.



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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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A great question.

I've been playing with these donks for awhile at this table and could not imagine what I was ahead of on at that river when that guy bet out.

From seeing the guy play for awhile I could not imagine being ahead. Plus I think I was angry when I folded, but that's not a good excuse.

The pot was so big i should have called behind.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If you are going to call the turn, (you raised) then why are you folding the river?

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There is no way hero is good on the river, like ever.



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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

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When I raised the turn I wanted to find out where I was at. I expected one of them to fold, but they both called. I figure I can't win.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I prefer bet/folding the turn.

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This isn't an option here. Are you saying you'd just fold to the turn donkbet?

I'm not really sure what I'd do here -- if I think UTG+1 is capable of betting the turn when he picks up a flush draw, then I'd probably raise and try to convince BB to fold. I think that someone who just spiked a Q would be more likely to check/raise so a semi-bluff from UTG+1 looks like a definite possibility here.

But when he likes his hand enough to donk again on the river, and there's now two overcards to my J's plus the backdoor flush came in, I gotta think it's pretty likely I'm beat.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

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The idea would be that if the villian still thinks he has the best hand on the river after all of the aggression shown by hero with a king and queen on the board, he probably does. And BB cold calling 2 on the turn when an overcard falls does not bode well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I prefer bet/folding the turn.


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This isn't an option here. Are you saying you'd just fold to the turn donkbet?


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That was my bad, I misread the action and thought hero check/raised.

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I'm not really sure what I'd do here -- if I think UTG+1 is capable of betting the turn when he picks up a flush draw, then I'd probably raise and try to convince BB to fold. I think that someone who just spiked a Q would be more likely to check/raise so a semi-bluff from UTG+1 looks like a definite possibility here.

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The real question is do we want BB to fold here. If we raise and BB calls, there's a very good chance we're behind. If we raise and BB folds, then we just got a hand like AK/AJ/AT/TT/99/etc to fold - only AK has 6 outs against us, the rest have 2-3 (or already have us beaten) and it's dubious whether we have the best hand anymore when UTG+1 wakes up. If we had 99 I'd like the raise better as there would be some value in getting TT/JJ to fold.

Raising may be the right play on the turn, but only if we think UTG+1 is semi-bluffing, not because we want BB to fold (well the exception would be if he has JJ, but it's unlikely and if he does he didn't play it well).

Of course if UTG+1 is not capable of semi-bluffing here then we should just fold to his bet.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

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The idea would be that if the villian still thinks he has the best hand on the river after all of the aggression shown by hero with a king and queen on the board, he probably does. And BB cold calling 2 on the turn when an overcard falls does not bode well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Personally my turn line would have been (in order of preference and I may be weak)

1: Fold
2: Call
3: Raise

If I did call the turn, can I then call the river for the size of the pot?

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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If I did call the turn, can I then call the river for the size of the pot?

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Yes

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I agree, I was just questioning the logic behind raising the turn then folding the river.

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The idea would be that if the villian still thinks he has the best hand on the river after all of the aggression shown by hero with a king and queen on the board, he probably does. And BB cold calling 2 on the turn when an overcard falls does not bode well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Personally my turn line would have been (in order of preference and I may be weak)

1: Fold
2: Call
3: Raise

If I did call the turn, can I then call the river for the size of the pot?

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Perhaps my turn raise was incorrect. I really just wanted to see how much UTG+1 liked his hand and get the other player to fold as well. Having failed to do either of these I could not see how I would be dragging this pot unless I spiked a Jack on the river.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

I appreciate all the responses and input. This was the first hand I've ever posted on 2+2

Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
BB has 8d 5d (one pair, eights).
UTG+1 has 6c 7d (one pair, sixes).
Outcome: BB wins 15.75 BB.

MHWG

Needless to say I'm still sitting at this table.

</font>

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

nh. i like it all. that donkbet is junk here. a Q is check raising, smaller pairs will bluff as well as a lot of draws. that river is a terrible card and getting donked into is never good w/o reads. well played.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

I like the way it was played up to the fold. I think you have to call. I would have expected trips to raise on the turn and river no matter how passive they are. I would expect to see a flush that hung on with over cards or small pair. The thing is, I think you have to call because I see so many small pocket pairs call to the river. You are not likely to win but I think you would win enough that it is marginally worth it.

Now that you have read my opinion, let me discount it by saying that I play mostly .25 / .50 at full tilt.

McHonts

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I like the way it was played up to the fold. I think you have to call. I would have expected trips to raise on the turn and river no matter how passive they are. I would expect to see a flush that hung on with over cards or small pair. The thing is, I think you have to call because I see so many small pocket pairs call to the river. You are not likely to win but I think you would win enough that it is marginally worth it.

Now that you have read my opinion, let me discount it by saying that I play mostly .25 / .50 at full tilt.

McHonts

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I actually agree with you. I was kicking myself after I folded and saw that my hand was good. The pot was big enough that one more big bet shouldn't have been a problem. Especially with how aggresive I played it.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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I actually agree with you. I was kicking myself after I folded and saw that my hand was good. The pot was big enough that one more big bet shouldn't have been a problem. Especially with how aggresive I played it.

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Your fold was good, kicking yourself is just being results oriented. Seeing the results of the hand should change how you play against these opponents in the future, but your read here that you were beaten was correct in my opinion.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

You're right. I really thought I was beat. But would it have been so bad to call? Do I win enough there to make it +EV? Probably not, but hard to say.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

the fold is fine. to consider else would be result-oriented unless a better read is provided. the great play was the turn raise. his donkbet into you AGAIN on the river indicates "my turn bet wasn't full of bull" or "hey my semi-bluff on the turn just came in- SWEET". laying down the best hand at times is another part of poker just like calling this river and being shown a flush or rivered 2 pair would be.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

I don't like the turn raise... why are we raising it again?

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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You're right. I really thought I was beat. But would it have been so bad to call? Do I win enough there to make it +EV? Probably not, but hard to say.

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This is an often debated topic. The problem is defined in "Weighing the Odds" as "The River Paradox". Calling too much when you know you are beaten is a long term leak. Folding when you might have the best hand can also be a leak if you do it too much. In general, especially when first starting out, it makes sense to call too much, especially in large pots, folding the best hand can cost you a significant number of bets. However, as you move up, you will find that this can become a leak if you start calling down every time you aren't sure - especially when the pots are smaller (in terms of big bets). Just like any other leak where you have a lot of opportunities to make the same mistake.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

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This is an often debated topic. The problem is defined in "Weighing the Odds" as "The River Paradox". Calling too much when you know you are beaten is a long term leak. Folding when you might have the best hand can also be a leak if you do it too much. In general, especially when first starting out, it makes sense to call too much, especially in large pots, folding the best hand can cost you a significant number of bets. However, as you move up, you will find that this can become a leak if you start calling down every time you aren't sure - especially when the pots are smaller (in terms of big bets). Just like any other leak where you have a lot of opportunities to make the same mistake.

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Wow. Great answer! You guys rock.

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

There's not much worse that folding in a big pot and finding out you would have won. Really sickening. [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

Re: JJ hand that got ugly
 

Reads would determine whether I call this river or not. If the players involved are LAGGY or unknown I call, and I think a fold is actually a decent sized mistake. If I they are semi-reasonable, it is a safe fold.