Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Gentlemen, I bring the latest hot picks from the BSPs.

The BSP record so far: 0-4-1. For those of us who are fading the Bar Stool, those are numbers we like to see.

This week there is one BSP pick that dwarfs all others.

Eagles -7.5 over Raiders Even on this board as of yesterday I did not see one single Raider pick in the 3+1 contest. That speaks volumes. There is simply no money coming in on the Raiders from what I can see, and I am from Oakland! And why should there be? The Eagles are a superbowl team, and the Raiders are helmed by a ex-drunkard behind a line of felons that draw penalties every other play.

In other thread there were some many fine suggestions for BSP fades, and all have merit, but the biggest standout after the Eagles is Carolina.

Carolina -3 at Miami Apparently in week 1 we witnessed the "fake" Miami and the "fake" Carolina. Week 2 showed us the "real" Miami and the "real" Carolina. The Bar Stool Pundits are convinced that the true world beaters head out for their first road game of season where they will suck on the morrow of Frerotte's femur to the dismay of what few hurricane survivors remain in Miami. This pick has further confirmation with a clean sweep by Yahoo's expert picks. Gotta love it.

Third place is still muddled. The Jags, Chiefs, Colts, and Seahawks are in strong contention with the BSPs. We'll see if a clear third place pick shakes out by Sunday.

For now, the very strong BSP plays for us faders are:

Raiders +7.5
Miami +3

As always, that looks freakin ugly to me but I don't pick 'em, I just report.

natedogg

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

im conflicted, but since i already have a dime and a half on the home squad, i'll just go with the fish and hope for a bar stool split - gl [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Hmmm, interesting. I too thought Carolina -3 was a good pick. I might just be one of the BSPs myself. Of course, I'm new to this whole thing so this is quite possible.

Going to put 1 unit on the Raiders though. I'm getting +8 on Bodog.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Is Colts -13.5 not a BSP pick?

I'm asking because THE BROWNS SUCK PEYTON WILL KILL THEM DUDE!!!!!!

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3.
 

[img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]..i luv it natey..

keep em cummin'

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Great report!

Your avatar fits nicely with someone keenly intune to the BSPs!

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Good stuff as always, natedogg.

I really see the Colts as a strong BSP pick as well. Maybe there's more money on the Browns than expected that I'm not hearing about, but everyone's public opinion that I've been able to see is strongly on the Colts to demolish Cleveland.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Love the thread natedogg, keep em coming.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

I love these plays Nate, please for the sake of all Sports Betting forum avid readers I implore of you:

Please don't stop drinking!

p.s. Are you getting this "information" from one local bar, or from a couple of different places you frequent? I go to a local hole in the wall place out here in Cleveland, and I think I'm going to stop in tonite just to put my ear to the ground and see what this group likes.

City by city BSP picks? Interesting....
 

If we dropped the homer picks, would cross-referencing strengthen their value?

Re: City by city BSP picks? Interesting....
 

The way the 3+1 is shaping up this so far, I think all the BS pundits have the internet this year.....

Lori

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

[ QUOTE ]
As always, that looks freakin ugly to me but I don't pick 'em, I just report.

[/ QUOTE ]
Keep betting them. These are gold.

additional picks
 

This is a big week for the BSPs. They're all over several games. While last week was tough to identify the big BSP favorite, this week it's hard to keep the choices down.

While Jags and Bucs are getting their share of Bar Stool Punditry, they have their detractors, which I suspect is due to the fact that the Packers have been a perennial BSP favorite over the years. The Jets and Packers would make fine BSP picks, and I urge you to take them this week, but I'm not including them as part of my BSP actual picks.

That's because there are two other games with even more lopsided BSP action.

Colts -13.5 As a lot of people have mentioned, the Colts are very popular this week. Personally, I'm sick to my stomach putting money on a team that is playing their second road game after an unexpected win at Lambeau, but the numbers don't lie. All the money is on the Colts.

Chiefs +2.5 Not only is all the money on the Chiefs, but the Yahoo Experts have gone 3 of 4 picking the divisional road dog to prevail at Denver on MNF. Hmmmmmmmm.

Well there you have it. Four strong BSP picks and a couple second-tier picks for those who really want to pull the trigger. The Jags are also getting some love from the Yahoo experts, so that's another good sign they'll lose.

As far as this "official" tally goes for natedogg's BSP reporting, we'll just go with the Browns and the Broncos.

This week's bets:

Raiders +7.5
Fins +3
Browns +13.5
Broncos -2.5

Good luck everyone, and if you're on the BSP side, good luck to you as well. I think there are excellent reasons to bet the Colts and Bucs particularly, and I don't have the stomach to fade the BSPs there to be honest. I'm staying away from those games entirely. Good luck if you're on the Bucs or Colts. Lord knows the BSPs need a couple.

natedogg

Re: additional picks
 

And you can get Oakland +9 (-110) at Pinnacle right now.

Re: additional picks.
 

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] i just unloaded +9

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: additional picks.
 

Some of the bar picks are suspect. . .in the sense that there is a lot of argument in the bar about what the right play is. . .the big, known handicappers are calling this a real tough week and that is reflected in no clear cut bar stool pick...

his thread is f*cking genius
 

Well done natedogg.

Re: additional picks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the bar picks are suspect. . .in the sense that there is a lot of argument in the bar about what the right play is. . .the big, known handicappers are calling this a real tough week and that is reflected in no clear cut bar stool pick...

[/ QUOTE ]

The big cappers may see that it's a tough week, but that doesn't mean the BSPs don't have clear favorites. I'm only reporting what I hear and read.

natdogg

Re: additional picks
 

And again, people laying a billion points on the Colts lose. There's no free money.

Re: additional picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
And again, people laying a billion points on the Colts lose. There's no free money.

[/ QUOTE ]

go browns!!!!!! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: additional picks
 

Looks like it's going to be 3-0-0 early.

Why do I waste money on my own picks?

Keep it up natedogg

It may be time for a 900 number
 

Keep it up Nate, I wont even be late for rent this month.

Re: additional picks.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Some of the bar picks are suspect. . .in the sense that there is a lot of argument in the bar about what the right play is. . .the big, known handicappers are calling this a real tough week and that is reflected in no clear cut bar stool pick...

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess this depends upon which bars you are going to.

Nate, your selection of The Crooked Goalpost is obviously the correct place.

Re: additional picks
 

Wow. Just wow. I took Carolina at -3.5 early on, because I thought they were a good bet. Looks like I'm just a BSP myself. I reluctantly put money on Raiders +8 after the first post in this thread. I missed the Indy/Cleveland thread, but would have won that.

The only other games is the KC/Den and I did pick KC+3 on that, so again, I'm with the BSPs. It'll be interesting to see if the theory holds out. Even if it doesn't, the BSP theory will be something like 10-1-1 for the first 3 weeks.

By the way Natedogg, do you actually go to a bar, or where do you get the "BSP" picks from?

Re: additional picks
 

This just goes to show how much the "public" factor goes into these linemakers coming up wth a number. There are always juicy numbers out there and public concensus along with line movement is a great way to handicap and make selections.

I have been doing something similar with ESPN Fantasy's PigSkin Pick'Em concensus against the spread. Using the highest percentages of public action along with taking a look at the line movement and why (injury or maybe weather), I have been successfully going 4-1 or 5-1 each week.

This was just a test with no money involved, but next week I am going to start putting my system to action.

Actually, im going to start using this system tonight. 78% of the public is picking KC. My Denver play is looking SOLID!

Re: additional picks
 

[ QUOTE ]

Colts -13.5 As a lot of people have mentioned, the Colts are very popular this week. Personally, I'm sick to my stomach putting money on a team that is playing their second road game after an unexpected win at Lambeau, but the numbers don't lie. All the money is on the Colts.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not me, which leads me to a serious question, Nate.

This game opened at Clev + 16. The betting public correctly drove it down [along with some sharp bettors] 2.5 points to 13.5!

How can you tell the BSP's want the Colts, when the betting public clearly favored the Browns at 16, at 15, at 14.5 [when I got in for small finally] and at 14, until it hit 13.5 and the rest of the public [more or less?] decided they liked the Colts?

confused,

Naj

Re: additional picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Colts -13.5 As a lot of people have mentioned, the Colts are very popular this week. Personally, I'm sick to my stomach putting money on a team that is playing their second road game after an unexpected win at Lambeau, but the numbers don't lie. All the money is on the Colts.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not me, which leads me to a serious question, Nate.

This game opened at Clev + 16. The betting public correctly drove it down [along with some sharp bettors] 2.5 points to 13.5!

How can you tell the BSP's want the Colts, when the betting public clearly favored the Browns at 16, at 15, at 14.5 [when I got in for small finally] and at 14, until it hit 13.5 and the rest of the public [more or less?] decided they liked the Colts?

confused,

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

I had this one opening at 13 and closing at -14 -120 or -14.5.

Re: additional picks
 

Kind of scarey how accurate the BSP are... How long have you been doing this nate?

Re: additional picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Colts -13.5 As a lot of people have mentioned, the Colts are very popular this week. Personally, I'm sick to my stomach putting money on a team that is playing their second road game after an unexpected win at Lambeau, but the numbers don't lie. All the money is on the Colts.

[/ QUOTE ]


Not me, which leads me to a serious question, Nate.

This game opened at Clev + 16. The betting public correctly drove it down [along with some sharp bettors] 2.5 points to 13.5!

How can you tell the BSP's want the Colts, when the betting public clearly favored the Browns at 16, at 15, at 14.5 [when I got in for small finally] and at 14, until it hit 13.5 and the rest of the public [more or less?] decided they liked the Colts?

confused,

Naj

[/ QUOTE ]

I had this one opening at 13 and closing at -14 -120 or -14.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

Line opened at 16, ask anyone who follows lines closely, or call the Stardust, check online if your site keeps line histories, then dropped to 13.5, then went back up to about 14 or so depending on your book.
I got the Stardust lines from last week in front of me from a friend's trip to LV, Open Indy -16.

Nate's doing God's work here, so more power to him, I am just trying to understand the process. Hell, I don't care if it's 3 drunks all named Norm at the local dive if it is working this well.

Re: additional picks
 

According to the Offshore Connection which summarizes lines at different sportsbooks, the opening line was 13. Not trying to make a point, just reporting what I see/saw. On the other hand, late betting pushed the line from 13.5 to almost 14.5 between Friday and Sunday so I don't see how it ended at 13.5.

Ed: Ok, it sounds like you weren't saying it ended at 13.5, but that it rose from 13.5 to 14-14.5 on late public betting.

Re: additional picks
 

[ QUOTE ]
According to the Offshore Connection which summarizes lines at different sportsbooks, the opening line was 13. Not trying to make a point, just reporting what I see/saw. On the other hand, late betting pushed the line from 13.5 to almost 14.5 between Friday and Sunday so I don't see how it ended at 13.5

[/ QUOTE ]

Line opened at 16 at the Stardust, which is generally regarded as the official opening line. And I didn't say it ended at 13.5, I said that's when the 'other' BSPs decided they liked the Colts and starting moving the line back. I certainly agree the line moved from 13.5 to 14 or 14.5 from late Fri to early Sunday, but the original 2.5pt move down is what has me wondering about this one.

Anyway, go nate go!

Naj

Re: additional picks
 

See my last post, I made an edit.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

anyone have any theories as to why this is so successful?

is it possible that the linesmakers take this into account? instead of determining the "true" line, they choose a line that will get an equal amount of action on both sides.

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

Too small of a sample to call this "successful". However, it seems promising. Go Nate!

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

[ QUOTE ]
is it possible that the linesmakers take this into account? instead of determining the "true" line, they choose a line that will get an equal amount of action on both sides.

[/ QUOTE ]

They do, but I would also think that the line has to be close to the "true" line to avoid exposure to HUGE amounts of money on the sharp side.

The BSP idea is a valuable one though. Fading the public is often a good idea. Plus, even if you lose, you still feel like a wiseguy genius who's not swayed by conventional wisdom. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Bar Stool Pundits week 3
 

I went 5-1 this week thanks to this thread (which got me thinking more about betting against the public faves) and the entrants in the ESPN pick 'em contest who give me the actual plays.

Great read as well [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]