Two Plus Two Older Archives - AJo...WAY overplayed

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AJo...WAY overplayed

1/2 PP, had not been at the table more than 2 orbits, had no real read on the villain prior to this hand.

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero calls, 6 folds, SB completes, BB :#A500AF(Villain)/ checks.

Flop: (3 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Villain bets, Hero raises, SB calls, Villain 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

I figured villain was perhaps betting out with a 9. With only 3 in, I liked my overcards, backdoor nutflush draw, and last-to-act position. I raised here because I thought I had a good shot at getting to see free cards later. The three-bet was definitely an alarm bell...and one I don't think I sufficiently heeded. Should have signalled 2-pair at a minimum, since I had no read this guy was a particularly reckless player.

Turn: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Villain bets, Hero raises, SB calls, Villain 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

I'm still thinking Villain has A9 or maybe nutflush draw here...that's why I raised again. I finally wake up on his second 3-bet of the hand, and know he has me beat, whether it's 2 pair, set, or straight.

River: (15 BB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Villain bets, Hero calls, SB calls.

I call mainly because of the pot size...I'm almost certain he has me beat here.

Final Pot: 18 BB

In reviewing this hand, I think my preflop and flop play was okay. I think my river play, despite the fact I know I'm beat, is all right too because of the size of the pot.

I think my play on the turn, however, sucked; Villain's flop 3-bet should have been a clear warning that he had something better than a measly TPTK or diamond draw. Thoughts?

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

I like a raise preflop, but that seems to be mostly a matter of taste (and texture of the table).

Given the turn 3-bet and the powerful suckiness of that river, i actually think you can fold.

The turn raise is close. I liked it at first, but i think that's because i'm a LAG, and was going to advocate just calling down, but with SB in there i like the raise again.

Overall, i don't think you did too bad.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

Gotta raise preflop.

The way it played out, you overthought yourself on the flop. Here's the most important thing you need to consider:
[ QUOTE ]
Flop: (3 SB)

[/ QUOTE ]

This pot is far too tiny to fight over; you definitely don't have odds to draw. I would just fold it off the get-go.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

[ QUOTE ]
This pot is far too tiny to fight over; you definitely don't have odds to draw. I would just fold it off the get-go.

[/ QUOTE ]

I missed this (because i'm used to the pot being raised when i have AJ [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]). I agree that you should just fold this flop.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

I don't think we can simply say that he is calling with only a 9, but even if we assume that we still need to improve. So we have the following out:

Overcards = 3.0
Backdoor flush = 1.5

I think we need to discount the overcard outs as there is a flush draw out as well as the potential for a straight. So here we have 4.5 outs, which means we need about 10:1 to call here. You are only getting 4:1 if you just call here, obviously your raise hurts you even more here.

When he 3-bets you are getting 8:1 so you are still not getting what you need to call here.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

Grunch:

No preflop raise? I know its off suit, but more times than not, I like a raise with these cards.

Flop, I guess thats ok, given overcard and BDFD possibilities...

His 3bet on the turn is a warning flag, definitely (against an unknown) so I go into cautious mode, even with TPTK.

River sucks, I'm leaning towards a fold here, but SSHE preaches a loose call here if we've got a chance of winning. Whats our chance of winning here? We beat only pairs under JJ, Villain is the BB so who knows WTF he has. 96o? 25s?

I'm thinking I might not overcall here however.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

Villain's flop 3-bet may have been with a set or 2 pair. However, I think that villain may still have 3-bet with TPGK thinking that he had the best hand. He may have considered that you were unlikely to have an overpair as you didnt raise preflop.

I thought that you were correct to raise the turn, because you may have just improved to the best hand. I agree that villain's turn 3-bet suggests that he probably has you beat. However, by then the pot had become so big that I think that calling down became correct, in case your hand was best.

Where I would have played your hand differently is that I would have folded to the flop bet. With only 4 small bets in the pot at that stage, I dont think that it was worth chasing with overcards, despite also having the backdoor nut flush draw.

I also would have preferred to open raise preflop, but some players like to limp from EP, and I would not consider that to be a mistake.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

[ QUOTE ]
In reviewing this hand, I think my preflop and flop play was okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate both of these streets. First of all, raise PF. Second, raising the flop is just spewing.

The whole hand plays differently if you correctly take the initiative preflop.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

(grunching)

I would probably fold AJo from UTG. It's a weak hand, and you don't even know your opponents yet! If I wasn't going to raise it, I'd fold. Since you didn't raise, villain doesn't view you as a threat.

Flop: You could easy fold that tiny pot. I might call and look for a diamond or my overcard on the turn. When you get 3-bet, without any reads, maybe from a laggy player, you're looking at his draw, or any pair, but he could have two pair. BB has any two cards. Since you raised, you want to play, so I guess I'd call the 3-bet and still hope for my A, J or diamond.

Turn: Call. No reads and he's still betting into you after you called his 3-bet. Why do you think you have the best hand?? It's not even the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

River: That's a big pot, but I think yer dead. SB maybe has his draw, which is the only reason I figure he's still there. Sometimes the fish hang around with their 2nd pair. I'd make a crying call. This was lost on the flop.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

[ QUOTE ]

I figured villain was perhaps betting out with a 9.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is what stuck out for me, because you may have done something that I occasionally do: forget this guy only had to check his blind in an unraised pot. So to put him on a logical hand isn't as easy as it is for someone who decided to pay to see the flop. So he could be on any number of hands here that have you beat. Having said that, I think your only questionable play was raising him again on the turn. Even though you hit your pair, it's still too likely he has you beat, especially if that overcard didn't slow him down. I would go into call-down mode at this point. Folding is wrong because of the large pot and your chance to redraw, if he's only holding two pair.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
In reviewing this hand, I think my preflop and flop play was okay.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate both of these streets. First of all, raise PF. Second, raising the flop is just spewing.

The whole hand plays differently if you correctly take the initiative preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is there are situation where you would limp AJo, or is it always a raise or fold? I'm thinking specifically of very loose tables where you are confident of 4-5 to the flop, even with a raise from EP.

Re: AJo...WAY overplayed

Thanks for all the replies. Two comments stuck out at me as repeated among multiple responses.

First, the small size of the pot at flop. You're right, this pot wasn't even worth fighting over. I thought he might be bluffing himself and I foolishly let myself get involved in an unnecessary battle....good lesson learned.

Second, quite a few advocated pre-flop raise here. I used to raise or fold AJo UTG, depending on players involved, my assessment of my table image, etc. As I gained a little experience, I tended more toward folding it. That was before I used PT, so I don't have data for how well I did with that approach. SSHE recommends limping with AJo in early and middle position...so I've been doing that about a month. I must confess that I've done it mainly because "well, that's what the book says to do", which is pretty pathetic. I DO raise AJs in pretty much all positions. I play ATs & ATo the same way...raise with the suited and limp with the offsuit.

These posts prompted me to take a look at this group of hands again in PT, and what I found was quite interesting. For background, my PT database has about 20k hands, about 90% at .50/1 and 1/2, with a smattering of 2/4 and 3/6. All Party.

I raise the suited AJ and AT, obviously, because of the increased flush possibility. I limp AJo/ATo in early position. This is consistent with SSHE. My BB/hand with AJs/ATs hovers around 1.00. My BB/hand with AJo/ATo runs about 0.10. This is probably to be expected, since you make a flush more often with the suited hands, right? Well, it turns out, wrong, at least in the relatively small sample size in my PT. I made the same number of A-high flushes with AJs and AJo...and I actually made MORE flushes with ATo than with ATs. And in both cases, flushes were a very tiny component of my overall wins, which of course were much more likely to be top pair, 2 pair, or even just A-high with decent kicker.

I do recognize that 20k is not a large sample, and I would expect the difference in flushes made with suited vs offsuit hands to be more apparent when I get to, say, 100k hands. BUT...that still leaves the question of why I'm doing so much better with AJs/ATs than with AJo/ATo, given that, to date, I haven't made more flushes with them (in fact, have made FEWER flushes with them, by a short-term statistical fluke).

The answer, obviously, is that I'm playng them more aggressively...getting more money in the pot, thinning the field, setting conditions for effective river bluffs, etc. Great lesson learned. I think I'm going back to raising AJo/ATo in loose and passive games, and folding them in tight and aggressive ones.

FWIW, the BB held 87s; he had flopped the nuts. In this particular case, I doubt that a pre-flop raise would have driven him out...I'm guessing he would have called out of BB with suited connectors.

Thanks again to all for the replies; really helped to refine my thinking of the AJ and AT hands.