PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Other Guy in this hand has tight preflop #s, somewhat tight post
Villain was loose preflop, seemed tight post.

Table xxxx (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Villain ( $97.43)
6 other dudes
Seat 8: OtherGuy ( $275.29)
Seat 9: Folder ( $247.15)
Seat 10: Hero ( $270.89)
Folder posts small blind (1)
Folder posts big blind (2)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ]
OtherGuy calls (2)
Folder calls (2)
Hero calls (2)
Villain raises (4) to 4
Folder folds.
Folder folds.
Folder calls (3)
J0HNNYWAD calls (2)
OtherGuy calls (2)
Folder calls (2)
Hero calls (2)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ] pot=$24
Folder bets (3)
folder calls (3)
OtherGuy raises (20) to 20
Folder folds.
Hero calls (20)
Villain raises (93.43) to 93.43
Villain is all-In.
Folder folds.
folder folds.
OtherGuy calls (73.43)
Hero raises (246.89) to 266.89
Hero is all-In.


Comments?

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

If you are up against something like A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] then you're in big trouble.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

The chance of one holding AQ is slim, since you're holding two queens. Someone is overplaying their hand, but I don't believe it's the Q9 in this case.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

I think I agree with Ribbo (whose advice and style I have just recently began to fully appreciate). Both players still in with you have stuck in raises on the flop, but you have solid blockers against better straights/same straight. This is weird action for neither of them to turn up the nuts, but AQ is unlikely due to you holding QQ (maybe you should check the odds to see just how unlikely for future reference). I suspect the villain might just have a nut flush draw and figures he will be getting around 2 to 1 on a push since 2 players have already put in fairly big bets. You have blockers though, so you are in pretty good shape here. I think otherguy still in has trips. It could be the other way around, but then I think otherguy wouldn't put in the raise after a bet and a caller with just an FD (unless you have a read that he is a little crazy with FDs which some people are). In the long run with 2 other people paying in you are going to be good often enough to go ahead and push. Sometimes your flush draw may be good backup when you are against the AQ.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

You say they both seem tight postflop. I'm nearly 100% sure that someone holds the broadway straight here if that's the case; having the Q "blockers" doesn't amount to sh!t given this action.

So it looks to me like you're falling back on a Q-high flush draw, and even though 2 outs give you the mortal nuts, I'd prefer to let this go when the action comes around a second time, despite the good pot odds; if they were loose postflop, then maybe you could justify drawing to a 3rd nut flush given the odds you're getting.

Of course, in the moment, I might be tempted to raise (since if you call you're committed) if something seemed fishy about the timing of the bets, the previous hand went strangely, etc.

But looks like a pretty easy fold after the fact.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Well Hero is clearly in questionable territory. Calling a raise pre-flop with QQ99 is marginal. But you are looking for a Q or a 9 and no overcards. Your flush draw sucks, and playing the Q9 straight just because you have another queen with 2 other players playing, to me, is putting your head in the sand and praying for your straight flush draw.
Its not a situation I would like for a lot of money on a regular basis.

I think the "two blockers" mentality is a trap. When I favor analysis like "two blockers" over my read on the players and betting I usually get slammed.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

If you have a read on one of the players as an maniac, then it makes this play a lot easier. Since the other player will also know this information, he will often make a isolation reraise (say with AA and nut flush draw or 2 pair) because it is unlikely the third player in the hand has a good enough hand to call with (ie AQ) when you hold AA, and you have outs anyway even if called. If I knew the maniac was getting reraised to try and make me fold I would call. I would be more swayed towards folding if the maniac who bet just got called by the second player, as it would be more likely he is smooth calling to make me come along for the ride.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Well, we're provided with reads: tight post-flop. If that read proves to be inaccurate (we'll see the hands regardless of the decision to call or fold), then it's time to adjust those reads.

Broadway has to be out there, and Q-high isn't strong enough to draw with against two tight postF players.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the "two blockers" mentality is a trap. When I favor analysis like "two blockers" over my read on the players and betting I usually get slammed.

[/ QUOTE ]

That right there is a great reply.

Heres the thing, its nice the two blockers thing is going on, but you cant be blinded to the betting patterns and what is going on before your eyes because you have "blockers". A guy bet out, he got raised, then a third guy came over the top and reraised him. If that doesnt say I got the straight plus a damn good redraw, I really dont know how else he can say it. How about he types it in on the chat box?

The fact that the other guy just called him says he is weak, but heres the problem you dont have the nuts and you know the other guy who is all in has a monster, so why not fold and let the guy who just called him try and deal with him. In this spot you will run into the nut straight every single time and all you are really hoping for is that the queen high flush draw comes, but even then who knows if thats good.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Thanks for the posts -- some followup questions.

Take a guess here:
For Villain
1. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?
2. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?
3. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?

For OtherGuy, same questions on how likely he is to have one of those hands, but also add in what percent chance you think he will fold one of those hands if I jam here (further info on OtherGuy: VPIP 18; W$SD=19, WSD=59. Hero has been a bit loose and aggressive so far but not been at the table very long)
4. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?
5. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?
6. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?

--g

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Honestly, I wouldn't have called the $20 on the flop, unless I had a read on Other Guy as being LAG postflop (your read seems to be the opposite.) It would be odd for him to raise something less than the nuts here with so many people in postflop. He is not likely to have the "blockers" that you have, so it would be a very bold play to raise a set or the low straight. In general, I don't place that much value on holding blockers when so many players see the flop. Also, as a rule, I think it's a bad idea to play a pot that is currently small but likely to become big without the nuts or a good draw to the nuts, especially when a lot of players see the flop.

If I called the $20, your raise when the action comes back seems like a decent, albeit dangerous move. With all the action, it would seem likely that both Villain and OtherGuy have the broadway straight (the flat call suggests OtherGuy doesn't have a redraw or that he's overplaying a set.) As long as you have the best flush draw and neither player has a set, getting allin on the flop is the most EV+ move you are likely to have the opportunity to make on this hand. In the worst case scenario, at least you aren't drawing completely dead [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. Of course, if "Other Guy" had folded to the reraise, a fold by you would be mandatory.

If neither of them had the nuts on the flop, you've found a very nice table.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

The chance of someone having the nut flush draw is 15%, the chance of one of the other two having a naked ace on that flop is also 15%. In the case of the naked ace, I would jam with it to get other non nut flush draws to fold if I have some other hand like AQ or a set on the flop.
I believe QQ99 HAS live cards on that flop 3 handed, whether it be the Q9 or the flush draw. The chance of AQ and nut flush draw being out there I put at maybe 7%. This would give you live cards and put a 3 ways shove odds for you at around 33% worst case scenario. Best case scenario is they both have a set and you have them dicked over good style. Either way with the money already in the pot (you only need around 30% equity on that flop to break even) I would call.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

I just noticed that the Villian has a relatively short stack here (should read more carefully), which changes things slightly, especially if Other Guy is the type to try to isolate a short stack who he suspects might be making a move on the pot. Still, I don't think it changes this much, since hero is ~LAG and already protecting the pot by leading at it.

[ QUOTE ]
Take a guess here:
For Villain
1. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

[/ QUOTE ]
20%

[ QUOTE ]

2. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?

[/ QUOTE ]
5%

[ QUOTE ]

3. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?

[/ QUOTE ]
75% or whatever is left

[ QUOTE ]

For OtherGuy, same questions on how likely he is to have one of those hands, but also add in what percent chance you think he will fold one of those hands if I jam here (further info on OtherGuy: VPIP 18; W$SD=19, WSD=59. Hero has been a bit loose and aggressive so far but not been at the table very long)
4. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

[/ QUOTE ]
40%; ~0%

[ QUOTE ]

5. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?

[/ QUOTE ]
40%; 0% (by the way, I'm lumping in B-way with other redraws as well)

[ QUOTE ]

6. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?


[/ QUOTE ]
20%; no idea, maybe 50%?


FWIW, I really hope this post doesn't end in something like "Villian had junk, Other Guy raised w/ just top set in an attempt to isolate against the short stack, and called my all-in raise and t/r came brick brick for my scoop"... b/c I think the range of hands here is going to make a fold the best option, although I admit that the range of hands assigned is heavily dependent on opinion.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
1. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?

[/ QUOTE ]

80%

[ QUOTE ]
2. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?


[/ QUOTE ]

50%

[ QUOTE ]
3. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?


[/ QUOTE ]

20%

[ QUOTE ]
For OtherGuy, same questions on how likely he is to have one of those hands, but also add in what percent chance you think he will fold one of those hands if I jam here (further info on OtherGuy: VPIP 18; W$SD=19, WSD=59. Hero has been a bit loose and aggressive so far but not been at the table very long)
4. What is the percentage chance he has AQxx without club flushdraw?


[/ QUOTE ]

50%

[ QUOTE ]
5. What is the chance he has AQ with club flushdraw?


[/ QUOTE ]

10%

[ QUOTE ]
6. What is the chance he has something else (total % chance of one of the following hands for example? (A2JJ suited to the Ace in clubs, KK24 suited to the K in clubs, QJT9, AKJT suited in clubs, etc.)?


[/ QUOTE ]

50%

Also I was other guy, but ill let greg post the results, and also I pulled these numbers out of nowhere, in other words I made them up so they have no math to back them up, just read based, lol.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
the flat call suggests OtherGuy doesn't have a redraw

[/ QUOTE ]
I disagree; if he has a redraw, he (or at least I) would probably call to get Hero to come along or attempt a raise... all a raise will do in OtherGuy's position with B-way+redraw is scare away all the hands he dominates, unless Hero has naked B-way only, in which case you're back to wanting him to stick around.

[ QUOTE ]
Of course, if "Other Guy" had folded to the reraise, a fold by you would be mandatory.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure about this either; what's your reasoning? We can assign a much wider range of hands to Villian since he's shortstacked. Bare nut flush draw seems like a strong possibility.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

I missed that Villain was shortstacked; that does change things a bit. (I'm taking too much cold medication; it's turning my brain to mush. I suggest you take anything I say with a grain of salt for the next few days.) It widens the possible hand range for both OtherGuy and Villain. Of course, against just the shortstack, Hero would want to call. It also makes me less certain that the BW straight is even out there (although, I think it's the most likely hand for OtherGuy). It's probably still a fold, at least the second time around. If gergery had mentioned OtherGuy was Jorge, I would fold 100% of the time to the first raise.

In general, are you saying you would play, say, a set + BW slowly? I usually think of those type of hands as a way to double up against another BW, in which case I'd want to get the money in quickly to avoid losing action after I hit. I guess you will encounter the occasional player that just finished reading Badger's page and will fold a naked BW straight, but that seems like the less frequent case.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Those stats do prove one point quite well, how weak tight you are. Don't play at higher limits, you will get eaten alive by the blinds.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Those stats do prove one point quite well, how weak tight you are. Don't play at higher limits, you will get eaten alive by the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im not going to get into a flame war here, but lets just say you have no idea how I play.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Your percentages need to add to 100% for each player.
Right now your #s add to 150% for Villain.

Btw, I did not know that OtherGuy was Jorge when I played the hand.

-g

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Whoops wasnt paying attention, just looked at each question.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Interesting that I had an almost
identical situation a couple months ago
Greg which I posted and you commented on.

Except in my situation it was, bet, raise,
reraise, cap, because it was limit. I called
with the expectation that I was up against a
higher str8, and that I had the str8 flush
draw, as well as the possibility of my Q high
flush holding up if I made it.

And if you remember it turned
out Villian 1 and 2 both had trips...

So, thats who plays bad (and the difference
of play in lower limits)

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

So Greg, I am curious as to the results (as I am sure are many others).
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
AA

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
So Greg, I am curious as to the results (as I am sure are many others).
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
AA

[/ QUOTE ]

I have posted the results and my thoughts in my blog
www.o8poker.com

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So Greg, I am curious as to the results (as I am sure are many others).
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
AA

[/ QUOTE ]

I have posted the results and my thoughts in my blog
www.o8poker.com

[/ QUOTE ]
You're a dick. Posting results and your thoughts in your blog is fine. Posting results ONLY in your blog and linking to it once every 5 posts is dick.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So Greg, I am curious as to the results (as I am sure are many others).
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
AA

[/ QUOTE ]

I have posted the results and my thoughts in my blog
www.o8poker.com

[/ QUOTE ]
You're a dick. Posting results and your thoughts in your blog is fine. Posting results ONLY in your blog and linking to it once every 5 posts is dick.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't post a link to my blog in every post i make, and if you look back over my last 50 posts or so I think you'd find no more than 7 or so have links to my site -- and they are always in response to very specific questions people have about O8.

My reply and thoughts on this post is very long so thought it would be easier to read there.

--The Dick

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So Greg, I am curious as to the results (as I am sure are many others).
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]
AA

[/ QUOTE ]

I have posted the results and my thoughts in my blog
www.o8poker.com

[/ QUOTE ]
You're a dick. Posting results and your thoughts in your blog is fine. Posting results ONLY in your blog and linking to it once every 5 posts is dick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Alright, here is the summary version.

OtherGuy folded to my jam.

Villain showed AQxx for the nutstraight and had no clubs or redraws.

OtherGuy said he folded AQxx for nutstraight and no redraws.

I think my play was fine, a bit aggressive/risky but not terrible. If OtherGuy really did fold AQ/no redraw, i think its a bad fold.

more details are at my site, but i won't post the link, you'll just have to go find it.....

-The Big Dick

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Wow....I wouldn't expect a response like that from someone who has spent enough time at this site to make over 6000 posts.

It was childish and uncalled for.

Ironman Dave

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow....I wouldn't expect a response like that from someone who has spent enough time at this site to make over 6000 posts.

It was childish and uncalled for.

Ironman Dave

[/ QUOTE ]

It was RUDE, CRUDE, and SOCIALLY UNACCEPTABLE.

<font color="white">Seriously, this forum needs to grow a thicker skin. Getting pretty gay around here.</font>

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Wow....I wouldn't expect a response like that from someone who has spent enough time at this site to make over 6000 posts.

It was childish and uncalled for.

Ironman Dave

[/ QUOTE ]
It was called for. He's a good poster and I even had previously been to his site and found it useful. But posting results on this message board exclusively by linking to another site is really not acceptable. If he didn't want to post results at all, fine. But only posting results somewhere else and then linking there is not right.

And I like how he counters my claim that he is linking to his site way too often on here (1 in 5 posts) by saying that it has only been 7 in the last 50 (1 in 7 posts).

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Anyone remember the last time I linked to http://www.ribbo.com ? It's not big or clever to shill your site.

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

As long as we're posting our websites, check out mine:

The HUN

Re: PLO8 -- who plays bad?
 

Just to confirm for others, Wintermute's website is absolutely NOT worksafe.
edit: but it may be useful for later.