88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

button is your typical TAG

What's your plan on the turn?

Party Poker 5.00/10.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(6 handed)</font> link

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, Button calls.

Flop: (6.40 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, Button calls.

Turn: (4.20 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero?

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

id take another stab, probly fold to a raise

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

My first instinct is bet/call, with a plan of folding the river unimproved if you are raised on the turn.

As an alternative, since you're not sure if you have a made hand or a drawing hand, you could go check/call, check/call. Works best against bluff/semibluff happy opponents. I'm not sure how good of a line it is against an average TAG, though.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

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My first instinct is bet/call, with a plan of folding the river unimproved if you are raised on the turn.

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That's the worst line possible.

Bet-fold seems ok here. If he calls your turn bet you're toast 90% of the time.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

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Bet-fold seems ok here. If he calls your turn bet you're toast 90% of the time.

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You do realize I still have the (relatively weak) flush draw, right?

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] It's late, I missed it.

Anyway, I'd be more concerned here about giving a free card to a bigger [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flush-draw than making one myself. That still makes bet-call a heck of a lot better, I admit.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

1. If I bet the turn, and villian raises, what range of hands do you put him on? Given that range, what's your play?

2. If I bet the turn, and villian calls, what range do you put him on? Given this range, what's your river play?

Based on your answers to (1) and (2), is betting superior to checking, or vice versa? Why?

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

I think, this is really a very interesting hand, as it describes a standard problem.

My question is, as the button does not know your hand, whether a check/raise on the turn is possible and will the button make fold? And if a heart hits the river, you're maybe even in front, which I don't suppose at the moment: Which bigger heart could he have, which is not already on the table? Not so much.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

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I think, this is really a very interesting hand, as it describes a standard problem.

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I agree, but seems like everyone else doesn't [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

What hands would villian wait till turn to raise here? A set seems unlikely unless it's 22, because he probably would've capped pf. A pair or two pair doesn't seem likely to me either since he (most likely?) would want to raise the flop to charge the many possible draws on the flop. If he flopped the FD or OESD, I see him raising flop (usually).

Therefore, I think it's more likely that villian has something along the lines of Ahx, AxQh, or AxJh.

What do you guys think?

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

Maybe you're right.
The call of the flop is maybe only a trick not to waste his table image. If he folds his hand to a flop bet, he cannot so easily steel the blinds again. If he calls here and folds to a turn bet, his image is still good.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

Bet/fold the turn. If he calls, bet/fold the river. He could call the turn with the A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] or a PP.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

He could also likely raise the turn with Ah or QhQ, JhJ.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

Bet call, probably check folding any non heart river if he raises me.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

Here's my best thinking:
Let's assume when he tries to steal he has two cards T or bigger or a pair. If he'd raise with a lot more than this to steal then ignore the rest of this.

On the flop hands that are ahead are:
AK, AT, KQ, KJ, KT, QT, JT, AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99, 22, T9

Hands behind you:
AQ, AJ, QJ, 77, 66, 55, 44, 33, 98

Basically the flop hit almost any big hand. It missed small pocket pairs and just 3 of the non-pair hands he might have raised with. But even QJ has an OESD (which comes in on the turn BTW).

If he had a smaller pocket pair there's probably a very good chance he'd lay it down on this flop after getting 3 bet preflop. I think the call on the flop means you're beat but if another scary card comes on the turn he might decide to lay down some of the more marginal hands you're behind (and a turn bet would chase out loose calls by smaller pocket pairs).

The turn is a 9h completing the OESD and the flush. Scary card means time to bluff. If he made a loose flop call with a low pocket pair you'll win right here. He'd also likely lay down JT or something that MIGHT have been worth a flop call but is "obviously" behind and facing a big bet. If he doesn't fold here I'd say you're definitely beat.

IMO the flush draw isn't worth calling for if you bet and he raises. It's 4:1 against coming in and you're getting 7:1 but you're not getting any more bets when you win and you're losing at least 2 more when he has a bigger heart (your bet and his raise on the river). So if we say 1/3rd of the time he has a bigger heart let's do the math by playing this hand 15 times:
12 times you lose 1 bet = -12
2 times you win 7 bets = +14
1 time you lose 3 bets = -3

Which is slightly -EV. Maybe he won't really have a bigger heart 1/3rd of the time but a 2h also might give him a full house which makes your odds slightly worse again. At *best* it's SLIGHTLY +EV but I think it hurts your image when you 3 bet preflop, lead into the flop, lead into the turn and call a raise and then fold on the river. So in the end not worth it.

Therefore I'd say bet the turn, fold to a raise. If he calls check/fold the river. If he made a really loose turn call with something you have beat (77 or 55) he'll be more than happy to check behind and get a showdown for free.

But I don't post to the 2+2 forums much so I'd like to hear if people think differently.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

If he has the Ah 3/5th of the time he already has you beat (assuming he started with two cards T+ or PP): AhA, AhK, AhT. QhQ and JhJ already have you beat now AND you're beat if a heart falls. Only AhQ, and AhJ do you not have you beat. A heart would beat you on the river and both a Q or J would have you beat (make a pair or make a straight for both hands). Since even the hands you're ahead against have reasonable draws this should be a fold.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

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If he has the Ah 3/5th of the time he already has you beat (assuming he started with two cards T+ or PP): AhA, AhK, AhT. QhQ and JhJ already have you beat now AND you're beat if a heart falls. Only AhQ, and AhJ do you not have you beat.

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Your range is too small. If you're not blind-stealing with A2, A3, A4, and A5 as well, then you're not playing very well.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

He's prob raising K8+ and Q9+ as well.

Re: 88 against blind steal - Turn Play
 

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Bet call, probably check folding any non heart river if he raises me.

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That's exactly what happened: I bet, he raised, I called. River came non-heart, I check-fold.