I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

After taking a few months to work on my cash games due to trips to vegas and other reasons i'm back to 8 tabling, much more heavily bankrolled this time around and playing 200's mainly... I've been giving some thought to irie's signing off post where he posted that he thought 6% was the maximum attainable long term ROI for 200's but i just don't believe this much, i'm running terrible and STILL at 3% over my first 300 8 tabling... 18% 4th place finishes is fun! but anyways... my feeling is at almost any 215 table there are at least 1, usually 2 or 3 players with little to no chance (1-10%) of finishing ITM, with "dead" money like this in the SnG and an assumption that the remaining players are all strategically sound and relatively equal we can derive an expected return over infinity by taking some guesses for the variable amount of dead money

Example 1 - 1 Single Player with NO chance of finishing ITM

9 players share 2000$ which is a 3.4% ROI

Example 2 - 2 Players have a 0% chance of finishing ITM

8 players share 2000$ which is a 16.3% ROI

Example 3 - 3 Players have an 18% chance of finishing ITM each

This is our "practical" example which i think

Each of these players has 120$ of equity in their own buyin

therefore the 7 remaining players share 1640$ worth of the prize pool as equity giving a possible 9% ROI

Now this assumes an even distribution ITM (yours should be weighted towards 1st) and that all the players remaining are of equal caliber, where the average 2+2er is going to be slightly better than other players who might be beating the game for very little

And there it is
now you can see where this is going

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

I am quite certain that there are very few people who play these games who have a 1% likelihood of finishing itm 1% of the time. There are very few players who even are bad enough to have a 10% itm, and I doubt that they actually would have such statistics over a larger sample than they currently do. Based on that, your calculations, I believe, are going to have some horribly inaccurate results.

citanul

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

so do you recommend only playing 100's and 50's? I know the ROI there is much higher and sustainable (IMO). Just quad them baby!

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

I think Irie's 6 percent is very conservative. Giga said he thinks can get close to 20 percent. ZeeJustin seems to believe he can get at least 12 or 13 longterm, I'm pretty sure Curtains has been beating the 215's for more than 6 percent for quite a while.

Someone that is extremely gifted, intelligent and works really hard at beating the game and constantly improving can have over 6 percent long term ROI. If your the MAN, your edge will come not just from donks, but solid regulars who aren't quite as good as you.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

didn't really read your post, but 6% is a bogus number.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

can you get 10%+ in the 215s? sure, but not by conventional methods.. it actually requires a bit of poker skill. you must play pots early, pick up uncontested pots, and take some extra risk to get a big stack early. no matter how good you are at playing with high blinds and perfect icm, yer edge isnt near as big there as it used to be. the edge in the 215s+ is early and mid game now. holla

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
didn't really read your post, but 6% is a bogus number.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think the long term ROI of the best STT player I know of is likely no greater than ~15% multitabling. 6% isn't that far off what a good player should expect to do.

20%+ is quite possible when running well.

Yugoslav

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
didn't really read your post, but 6% is a bogus number.

[/ QUOTE ]

6% is definitely too low. I'm north of that and I have more leaks in my game than the titanic. I wouldn't be surprised to hear that some people were beating the $215's for 15%.

Of course, alot depends on what kind of multi-tabling is going on. If somebody is 12-tabling things are probably quite different.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

so multi the $100's as there are more donks?

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
so multi the $100's as there are more donks?

[/ QUOTE ]

can def make more 8 tabling 109s than 4 tabling 215s. holla

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

In Zjustin blog he did some type of 1000 sng challenge at the 215 level, and ended with somthign like 13% roi. While I'm sure he was running somewhat good, its hard to believe his true ROI is 6% or lower.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

Im not sure if ZJ was running good to acheive 13% ROI. All the best sng players I know get over 10% ROI in the $215s.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

I guess i suck then [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Anyways, I believe that if you are actually good at the early and mid game, which I am not, you could easily get 12% roi. The problem is that I learned to be a rock in the early levels so now I am going back and trying to learn it. So far, since I havent been a total rock, i have had 13% roi. I hope I can keep it up so I can consider myself "good" too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]

Im not sure if ZJ was running good to acheive 13% ROI. All the best sng players I know get over 10% ROI in the $215s.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not Irieguy. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

If a reasonable person plays 1000 SNGs and has a 12% ROI, and then goes on a horrible run and drops 37 buy-ins over 50 SNGs... what will his answer be if you ask him "what is your ROI?"

He will say 12%. Even though it is not.

I see it all the time, on this forum and in person.

I see honest, professional, poker-playing friends respond the same way.

My 6% number is a REAL number. It counts misclicks, internet disconnects, drunken evenings, bad decisions, family deaths, and a breakup with your girlfriend. It counts a bad streak that may be worse than what you think you deserve. It also assumes that the player multi-tables.

Life and statistics happen.

Many players will play a lot of $215s and have better than 6% ROI. I know several with >10% for a long time.

But if you want to know what the true, expected long-term ROI of a great player over 1 year, or 10,000 $215 SNGs will be... it will be closer to my 6% than to any number suggested by other zealots.

Anyone who vigorously disagrees with this will not be around to argue the fact in 12 months. (a side bet I have yet to lose)

Irieguy

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

The reasoning about some players have 1-10% chance is not good. I doubt there are many players under 20% ITM.

Still, I think the truth probably lies somewhere in between and I would be willing to bet that, say, Curtains, is over, say 9% for his next, say, 1000. Though, I wouldn't be willing to bet a real large amount on it.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
The reasoning about some players have 1-10% chance is not good. I doubt there are many players under 20% ITM.

Still, I think the truth probably lies somewhere in between and I would be willing to bet that, say, Curtains, is over, say 9% for his next, say, 1000. Though, I wouldn't be willing to bet a real large amount on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Would you bet the cost of an expensive lunch at a nice restaurant?...(No Yugo) [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

How much time do me and ZeeJustin and the others who disagreed with the 6% figure have until its 12 months from when it was originally posted?

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

Yeah, that would be a good sized bet.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, that would be a good sized bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about the amount it would take for me to attend?

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Yugoslav
<font color="white">MmmmMmmMMMMmmmmm Lobster Bisque</font>

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

If Skip doesn't want you around, I can't do anything about that.

Otherwise, I could bet both of you. If I win, you take me to any restaurant. If you win, I take both of you to something like PF Chang, El Torito, whatever in that ballpark.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

This is a quote from ZeeJustin taken from my original thread:

[ QUOTE ]
A 25% roi is attainable in the $215's. If you allow some game selection, and only 1 table at a time, I imagine an expert could maintain 35-40% in the longrun

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Okay, everybody is entitled to their opinion... so that's cool. But I will not take somebody seriously who says that you can maintain a 40% ROI in the $215s over the longrun. Particularly since I spoke with Gigabet and Hoyt Corkins at the WSOP this year about this topic and I know what their results have been over a very large sample. I would consider them experts, too.

Once somebody tells me that they believe in ghosts, or have mindreading powers, I stop making proposition bets with them because I have found that crazy people don't pay up. I booked a side bet with a crazy person for the STTF-HUC and he didn't pay either.

Similarly, if somebody said that they would increase their ROI by 4-5% if they could take 5 chips from everybody at the beginning of a SNG... they would lose credibility in my eyes.

These are just my opinions. I'm here for the fun of it.

Irieguy

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
I guess i suck then [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Anyways, I believe that if you are actually good at the early and mid game, which I am not, you could easily get 12% roi. The problem is that I learned to be a rock in the early levels so now I am going back and trying to learn it. So far, since I havent been a total rock, i have had 13% roi. I hope I can keep it up so I can consider myself "good" too. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
I definitly wouldn't go out and say that 12% is anywhere near "easy" for a good, well rounded player.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is a quote from ZeeJustin taken from my original thread:

[ QUOTE ]
A 25% roi is attainable in the $215's. If you allow some game selection, and only 1 table at a time, I imagine an expert could maintain 35-40% in the longrun

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, everybody is entitled to their opinion... so that's cool. But I will not take somebody seriously who says that you can maintain a 40% ROI in the $215s over the longrun. Particularly since I spoke with Gigabet and Hoyt Corkins at the WSOP this year about this topic and I know what their results have been over a very large sample. I would consider them experts, too.

Once somebody tells me that they believe in ghosts, or have mindreading powers, I stop making proposition bets with them because I have found that crazy people don't pay up. I booked a side bet with a crazy person for the STTF-HUC and he didn't pay either.

Similarly, if somebody said that they would increase their ROI by 4-5% if they could take 5 chips from everybody at the beginning of a SNG... they would lose credibility in my eyes.

These are just my opinions. I'm here for the fun of it.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

since you say you consider Giga and Hoyt Corkins experts and you know what their results are over a very large sample, did knowing that info contradict your own personal opinion? in other words, are their long term results higher than what a feel a good player could average [ROI] over the same sample?

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]


since you say you consider Giga and Hoyt Corkins experts and you know what their results are over a very large sample, did knowing that info contradict your own personal opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
in other words, are their long term results higher than what a feel a good player could average [ROI] over the same sample?

[/ QUOTE ]

Their long term results are much higher than what a good player could average. If I were forced to play the silly game of naming the best SNGers in the world, they would both make my list.

In my signing-off thread, I was commenting on what great players who multi-tabled could achieve in my opinion. I wasn't talking about world-class players.

The rift in skill between the few best players in the world and the many "great" players is huge. And the difference between what some people think is sustainable and what world-class players actually sustain is equally huge.

One of the most enjoyable aspects of this year's WSOP was getting to talk to several world-class players about what they thought about SNGs. I personally talked to, or participated in conversations at the table, the Full Tilt hospitality suite, and in the halls with TJ, Danny N., Mike M., Hoyt, Gig, and a handful of others.

Nobody said anything that would make me believe that you could sustain an ROI of more than 10-15% at the highest level SNGs. And that's world-class players, one at a time.

A great player who multi-tables could expect around 6% over the very long term. In my opinion. This opinion is consistent with everything I've witnessed, and with every conversation I've had about poker with respectable world-class players over the past several years.

I understand that this opinion will contradict the results of a few players who disagree. That should be easy to explain.

Irieguy

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

I also don't believe that a 40% ROI is possible and Im also not that confident about the 4-5% roi increase from taking the 5 chips.

However as the chips that you take are about .5% of the prize pool, they should theoretically be worth $9 in real money. I would expect that this would be worth at LEAST 2% points in ROI (a signifigant amount in itself), which is less than HALF of the chips theoretical value. I don't know exactly how much these chips are worth, but they are worth something that should be at least close to their actual value in terms of % of the prize pool/chips in play.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

Irie,

Have you considered the possibility that these so-called 'world-class' players are just really, really stupid?

Also, have you considered the possiblity that you're just really, really stupid?

Where is freemoney to set you straight? [img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img]

Yugoslav

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


since you say you consider Giga and Hoyt Corkins experts and you know what their results are over a very large sample, did knowing that info contradict your own personal opinion?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

[ QUOTE ]
in other words, are their long term results higher than what a feel a good player could average [ROI] over the same sample?

[/ QUOTE ]

Their long term results are much higher than what a good player could average. If I were forced to play the silly game of naming the best SNGers in the world, they would both make my list.

In my signing-off thread, I was commenting on what great players who multi-tabled could achieve in my opinion. I wasn't talking about world-class players.

The rift in skill between the few best players in the world and the many "great" players is huge. And the difference between what some people think is sustainable and what world-class players actually sustain is equally huge.

One of the most enjoyable aspects of this year's WSOP was getting to talk to several world-class players about what they thought about SNGs. I personally talked to, or participated in conversations at the table, the Full Tilt hospitality suite, and in the halls with TJ, Danny N., Mike M., Hoyt, Gig, and a handful of others.

Nobody said anything that would make me believe that you could sustain an ROI of more than 10-15% at the highest level SNGs. And that's world-class players, one at a time.

A great player who multi-tables could expect around 6% over the very long term. In my opinion. This opinion is consistent with everything I've witnessed, and with every conversation I've had about poker with respectable world-class players over the past several years.

I understand that this opinion will contradict the results of a few players who disagree. That should be easy to explain.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

hell, i didn't even know Hoyt Corkins played Party SNGs. i know there is a player there with his name, i think Hoyt Corkins5 but i've heard it's not him. interesting that you consider Gigabet [ world class ].

So Irie...
 

what did you did these world class players have to say about SNGs? i think this is the second or third time i've read you say this but you haven't elaborated. it's great that you got to sit down and have a discussion with these players but what good does it do the forum it you don't share it?

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]

interesting that you consider Gigabet [ world class ].

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say it's more interesting that you seem intent on continuously trolling this forum and won't even do it under your original username!!! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I recommend that you go crawling back to your g/f and beg her to let you use her account again so you can have enough good variance to move up to the $11s and leave us all alone...

I'm sure PrayingMantis, et al. would agree with me here.

Yugoslav

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Where is freemoney to set you straight?

[/ QUOTE ]

Clearly he's in seclusion, preparing himself to teach these n00b "pros" to beat the 109s for a decent (30+%) ROI.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

interesting that you consider Gigabet [ world class ].

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd say it's more interesting that you seem intent on continuously trolling this forum and won't even do it under your original username!!! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

I recommend that you go crawling back to your g/f and beg her to let you use her account again so you can have enough good variance to move up to the $11s and leave us all alone...

I'm sure PrayingMantis, et al. would agree with me here.

Yugoslav

[/ QUOTE ]

one word Yugiyo---- [ MIDOL ].

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
interesting that you consider Gigabet [ world class ].

[/ QUOTE ]

http://www.raisinhill.com/images/sti...ou%20didnt.jpg

OH NO YOU DI'INT!

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
Nobody said anything that would make me believe that you could sustain an ROI of more than 10-15% at the highest level SNGs. And that's world-class players, one at a time.

A great player who multi-tables could expect around 6% over the very long term. In my opinion. This opinion is consistent with everything I've witnessed, and with every conversation I've had about poker with respectable world-class players over the past several years.

[/ QUOTE ]

From what I know, I would agree, except that a 'world class' player can clearly hit 10-15% multitabling. Up to a certain point, multiing is easier than one tabling. But I agree if you're talking &gt; 4 tables.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm sure PrayingMantis, et al. would agree with me here.


[/ QUOTE ]

sup

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

in the way that Irie is grouping Giga in with the others, he doesn't hint that Giga is anything but world class. i would definitely venture to say that for someone reading his posts in this thread for the first time, could very well assume Giga is such.

Re: So Irie...
 

[ QUOTE ]
what did you did these world class players have to say about SNGs? i think this is the second or third time i've read you say this but you haven't elaborated. it's great that you got to sit down and have a discussion with these players but what good does it do the forum it you don't share it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't realize that I had this fiduciary responsibility to the forum.

Irieguy

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
in the way that Irie is grouping Giga in with the others, he doesn't hint that Giga is anything but world class. i would definitely venture to say that for someone reading his posts in this thread for the first time, could very well assume Giga is such.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be a "nit"; but what the reader of this post could rightfully assume is the "Irieguy considers Gigabet to be among the world-class player"...nothing else

Re: So Irie...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
what did you did these world class players have to say about SNGs? i think this is the second or third time i've read you say this but you haven't elaborated. it's great that you got to sit down and have a discussion with these players but what good does it do the forum it you don't share it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't realize that I had this fiduciary responsibility to the forum.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

well, when you choose to respond in that manner, you don't have a fiduciary responsibility . do you, bro.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

im completely rational and i stand by everything i say, i havent had internet for almost a month now so thats why i havent been on here, but i am sorry i know it is very very possible to have better numbers then irieguys completely arbitrary numbers, there is no way a great players ROI at the 100s is only 12% and i 8 table i really dont care who you talk to, i will bet that if i could choose 4 players from my own choosing and me each played 1000 SnGs so 5000 to really reduce variance and there was a real large bet as an incentive then the ROI over 5000 SnGs would be over 12%, if u wanna take that bet i would be willing to put up 10k of my own money so if we get 4 more i would be willing to make a 50k bet that over 5000 SnGs the ROI would be greater than 12%.

Re: I\'m back, serious thoughts on possible 215 ROI\'s
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
in the way that Irie is grouping Giga in with the others, he doesn't hint that Giga is anything but world class. i would definitely venture to say that for someone reading his posts in this thread for the first time, could very well assume Giga is such.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not to be a "nit"; but what the reader of this post could rightfully assume is the "Irieguy considers Gigabet to be among the world-class player"...nothing else

[/ QUOTE ]

consider "nit" accomplished.