Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

5 handed 200 400 game at the Borgata.
The two times it's been folded to Joe in the SB he's raised and I've called in the BB and folded to his flop bet.
The third time he open limps, I check with 89o in the BB.
Flop is K J T rainbow. He checks I bet he raises I call.
Turn is Ko he checks I bet he raises I...?

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

fold he has a big hand. he probably limps with very good hands there and raises medicore ones. i had JJ one time and he cold called my raise with A2o and bet and raised the whole way with it and caught an A on the river. seeing as ill probably never play 2-4 again that is my joe cassidy story. someone else told me he's the greatest limit hold em player ever.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I agree 100% with this post.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

i dont like your flop bet here. dont like the turn bet either... seems like you are just walking face first into these checkraises.
you check your option, and he didnt didnt bet when it came KJT. hmmm. most ppl try to pick it up there, but ive never played w/ him, so i dont now... now he checks turn, most ppl wil bet there... hmm.
this turn checkraise with the lead is v v often a bluff/semibluff, but here i just dont see it.
you cant even beat Qhigh if thats what he has, so youre getting a worse price to stay involved since you are gonna have to risk more to win if hes bluffing and you are gonna lose at least three bets when he is full and you get there on the end, and might only win one (or none) when YHIG.
looks like a fold to me, but threebetting and following through on the end is the second best option i suppose.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

Your turn bet here is really quite bad. The guy was basically wearing a hat that said "checkraisin" on it. I guess it is possible he is just representing a huge hand, but making an expensive play like this with no real history between you two seems unlikely.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

When he checks the turn you don't think a significant portion of the time he will have a very weak hand that he is now giving up on since he fears I'm calling down with a made hand or will play back at him after calling the flop?

I'm not too concerned with my flop or turn bet. This is a situation where I'm betting or checking a certain percentage of the time. I don't have an exact breakdown but I'm not doing one or the other everytime. This time I decided to play it the way I did and I think it's more than reasonable some of the time.

What would be your play after being checkraised on the turn?

Also, I don't agree with the earlier posters who claim I should fold the turn. I will have 8 outs here too often, not to mention the possibility of bluffing the turn or river.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

[ QUOTE ]
you cant even beat Qhigh if thats what he has

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this relevant?

[ QUOTE ]
so youre getting a worse price to stay involved since you are gonna have to risk more to win if hes bluffing and you are gonna lose at least three bets when he is full and you get there on the end, and might only win one (or none) when YHIG

[/ QUOTE ]
That's a good point about risking more to bluff him. However, the business about him being full and losing bets when I get there is very insignificant since it relies both on him having a fullhouse (an extremely unlikely proposition) and me getting there on the end both occuring.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I believe hes good enough to mix up his play. So while he will limp sometimes with big hands, it's more like limp 20% raise 80%. A hand like KJ or QT he will raise more than that I think since there isn't nearly as much benefit to slowplaying it. He's also going limp sometimes with pretty bad hands like mine and worse since folding would still be giving up too much and raising them everytime would be an easily exploitable strategy.
Taking this into account I don't see how he could have a fullhouse or str8 often enough to warrant me folding the turn.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I think when Joe Cassidy checkraises you headsup in a shorthanded holdem game you should fold 100% of the time because he clearly has at least quads if not better. Pesronally I don't event play unless the cards add up to 18 or higher.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I def. take the free turn card like everyone said. Anyone else besides me that likes to raise pre flop to take control of the hand?

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

If you are really concerned with this the question is how often to raise and call with 98o when Joe Cassidy openlimps in the SB, and what has he seen you check or raise the BB with in the past. In this case this was the first chance I had and I preffered to give him a chacne to see me check with a mediocre hand so that future raises would be viewed as more likely to be strong hands. I also see no immediate value to raising 89o vs. a great player who open limps in the small blind.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

Personally, I think the play on the turn is to 3 bet and follow through on the end. I think he is making a play here with a hand like Q-7. That is definitely a hand that he could limp c/r with and then c/r turn with. Figuring that he can get more bets in with his draw and maybe force you to lay down a hand he can't beat, but with outs to improve.

The thing is, you have to 3 bet at the normal pace that you have been playing at... you can't sit and think awhile and you can't auto-3 bet either as this looks like a move as well. That would be my play... and hopefully if you miss he has to lay down his Q high on the end. Hope things turned out fine!

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

Let's not make the mistake of putting him on one hand and playing according to that. Clearly, out of his whole range of hands Qxo isn't going to be particularly likely by itself.

The question in my mind is how often is he going to have a hand in this spot that he's willing to fold to a 3-bet, or some other line that shows strength.


I'm getting 3 to 1 odds on a turn reraise and if it fails I still most likely have a chance to draw out if called. Is that enough?

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
you cant even beat Qhigh if thats what he has

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this relevant?


[/ QUOTE ]
of course. if you could beat Qhigh, then you could call down and very possibly win (bye beating Qhigh in a showdown) getting effective odds of 7:2, if you have to bluff raise (threebet turn,betriver or call,raise river.) you are getting 7:3.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

So I guess your original statement was meant to indicate that I couldn't feasibly call down and win here. It's such an obvious statement it through me off a bit.

Yes, 7:3 if he calls the turn (though I'm not quite sure I'm still betting the river if he calls the turn).
I'm also getting 3:1 on a str8 turn bluff.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

[ QUOTE ]

(though I'm not quite sure I'm still betting the river if he calls the turn).


[/ QUOTE ]
well i doubt hes folding a pair here, so i dont see how you could check down the river and risk letting him win a showdown with a busted straight draw... i dont know this guy, but i did read danny n's article in cardplayer where he wrote about the hand where he bluffed the turn/river with a Qhigh straight draw... joe called with a worse Qhigh.
if you had a small pair or A high, youd be getting a better price as you wouldnt have to fire the river. with 9high you must invest three bets, IMO.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I cant think of one hand he would check raise the flop with and then check fold to a river bet. I think if he were trying to straight rob you he would be more likely to just lead out in a pot this small. I think the flop bet is good, but check behind the turn.

Also its gonna get really expensive to try and push this hand since you need to bet the river as well if you do fire on the turn in case he has Qx. But that seems like a really strange line for him to take if he has queen high. Im not sure he has enough reason to believe you are going to fire again, not sure why he wouldnt just lead the turn. Anyhow considering you did bet the turn, Im calling but I think its close.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I believe that getting 3-1 here is enough to make this play. If you factor in both the potential of fold equity on the turn as well as fold equity on the end if he had a hand such as Q-x. My analysis is that there is a wide range of hands he could hold here...

Some of them have fold potential with a turn reraise and follow through some of his holding are not going to fold, but if you improve then things are even better, because now he pays you off. In combination with the holdings that he folds and the holdings that don't fold but you improve against I think you can justify a turn reraise here.

His ability to mix up his style is one of his skills for certain as they are of all great players, but I struggle to see the types of hands that he would play in such an extreme manner. It seems like a really offbeat line he is taking.

I think the most significant factor here is his propensity to slow play a big hand here in a blind struggle. Since, you have no knowledge of the hands he has played with you before, but having the knowledge of his past actions against you...

ie. you calling everyone of his raises heads up and then folding to his bet on flop... I believe it decreases the likely hood of him having slowplayed preflop against you... b/c you have already shown a propensity to call his preflop raises. Therefore, I believe he is making a move here with a semibluff... the most likely semibluff being a Q-x hand.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

His turn check-raise certainly looks strong. But, it also looks kinda goofy. In the end, with all the wierdness of his play and my image at the time (I hadn't shown anything near a bluff and hadn't been very aggressive postflop overall, with me basically folding most hands) I decided to 3-bet.

He 4-bets. Ok, great, he actually has a hand (or a perfect read on me heh). I call looking to hit a straight and the river is an A. He checks?!? Alright, can he see my cards?? Is he going for the all powerful triple-check raise? Was it all an elaborate move that he's finally given up on? Is it possible he has some sort of made hand hes now willing to fold?
What do you think? Fire one last seemingly hopeless shot, or give up and see what I dumped all that money to?

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

Please rename this thread "How I got trifectad by Joe Cassidy"

jvs

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

[ QUOTE ]
Please rename this thread "How I got trifectad by Joe Cassidy"

jvs

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

edit: I check the river, I dont think he is folding hardly ever after 4 betting that turn. It looks like he has you on a Q and that he just lost, but he's gonna pay you off to see, or raise you again with his Q [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

At this point, you fire one one out and if you get the triple checkraise.....well then, you were beaten by the master. No way you can check here and sleep at night.

Also, if he folds, you will have a story to tell Knish if you ever need to borrow some cash.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

"Im not sure he has enough reason to believe you are going to fire again, not sure why he wouldnt just lead the turn."

because heads up, when there was significant action on an earlier street, especially in blind wars, when one guy checks, the other guy bets. close to always. especially if they are men under 30.

the river
 

the river is more interesting than the turn stupidity.

because the pot is so big i think you need to actually fire a bet here. but when you do it you need to try and give off a minor reverse tell that you have what you think is the winner (a straight obviously). if he c/rs you then he's been full or had the straight the whole time and you just muck. but i actually think if you fire a bet here and project the right reverse tell (maybe slide your bet in real cool like and softly after a significant pause) you may get him to muck a K face up and the other card face down.

then you should in this case show your bluff.

btw i put him on something like K8o.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

i never played 200-400. but here is what i think:

raise btf, or check on the flop, or check on the turn.

if u think he limps with trash more than goods, then raise btf and gain initiative. but my thinking is that he has goods more than bads here (becasue you have been giving up on the flop - extremely expoitable in his view).

if u think he limps with goods more likely, then u should by all means check the flop or turn. if u decide to bluff him at some point, bluff on the river when you actually miss.

that would be my line of thinking, however, a game where it constantly goes blind-vs-blind does not interest me much.

- Kenny

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

[ QUOTE ]
His turn check-raise certainly looks strong. But, it also looks kinda goofy. In the end, with all the wierdness of his play and my image at the time (I hadn't shown anything near a bluff and hadn't been very aggressive postflop overall, with me basically folding most hands) I decided to 3-bet.

He 4-bets. Ok, great, he actually has a hand (or a perfect read on me heh). I call looking to hit a straight and the river is an A. He checks?!? Alright, can he see my cards?? Is he going for the all powerful triple-check raise? Was it all an elaborate move that he's finally given up on? Is it possible he has some sort of made hand hes now willing to fold?
What do you think? Fire one last seemingly hopeless shot, or give up and see what I dumped all that money to?

[/ QUOTE ]
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I agree with this analysis. Plus, what is he putting you on, having not raised preflop then played that board aggressively? Probably a weak one pair hand like J5 or T8 or draw like Qx.

I think there is plenty of motivation for him to try to move you off the hand here and thus you have to see the river for sure and also consider calling down if you only make a pair.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Im not sure he has enough reason to believe you are going to fire again, not sure why he wouldnt just lead the turn."

because heads up, when there was significant action on an earlier street, especially in blind wars, when one guy checks, the other guy bets. close to always. especially if they are men under 30.

[/ QUOTE ]

Haha OK good enough for me.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I think he's teaching you a lesson in this hand.

He's basically saying "position or no position I own you!"

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I'm still trying to figure out why you bet the turn. since you might have as few as 4 outs, seeing the river cheaply makes more sense. but since you are where you are, you have to play it our. folding is nonsense, while raising might be reasonable.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

I check behind in spots like this some of the time. I also bet in spots like this some of the time.

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

i wonder what Joe Cassidy's BB/100 is at the party 30/60?

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

First of all EZCheeze great hand to post, very entertaining please keep the live high limit hands coming. (Please!)...Im not sure I have much to add about the actual hand that hasnt been said. Everything u did seems logical, but probably not standard. My guess is that he had a weak K

Re: Hand vs. Joe Cassidy
 

yeah but youre a good player. im talking about normal self taughts.

Re: the river
 

Maybe Joe Cassidy has never done it, but I myself have on several occasions check raised the flop in this spot as a bluff and given up on the turn. I'll lead the turn some portion of the time of course, but giving up some of the time has to be right. Stuff like this happens from time to time as part of an overall solid strategy. Maybe I'm giving him too much credit here but I don't think so.

By the way, I bet the river of course and he immediately got a pained look on his face. As he looked back at his cards he accidently knocked some chips in the pot but scooped them back saying "that's not a call, I'm still not sure if I'm gonna raise". Eventually he folded K6o face up and I showed him my hand.

You had some excellent reads that were dead on in this hand. An interesting thing to note about this hand is that if I call the turn I have 8 outs but it turns out by 3 betting and calling a 4th bet I now have 12 outs to win. It certainly wasn't worth the extra 2 bets in this hand though.

Part of the reason for making a play like this is to reap the rewards in future hands. It'll be pretty hard for him to fold anything to a turn 3 bet by me in a similar spot, and he may even give excess action where he shouldn't. The times I like to pick to do this are when I think I have a high enough immediate value with the play in the given hand. Theoretically, you could pick a time the was pure chip spewing for that hand as long as you do it rarely enough and it actually has the desired effect on your opponent for a long time.

It looks to me like you tend to give your opponents credit for only their most obvious hands. This works fine against most people becuase they don't try to mix things up much. Especially since they don't understand the idea that making a -EV play in a given hand is ok if it will get you even more +EV in other hands. Alot of poeple understand that idea when playing no limit, but in limit games it still applies only to a lesser degree. When playing agianst certain players, especially when the pot gets larger, it isn't always true that it's significantly more likely for you to be beat. In a situation where your opponent has 3 or 4 bet you on the turn he has narrowed his hand range alot. It's almost always going to be very close to the nuts or a semi-bluff/bluff. A very important concept to understand is there is a huge difference between someone whoes bluffing range when 3 or more betting the turn is nil, and someone who bluffs there even a small portion of the time. This is because there are very few hands that are close to the nuts so if you throw in a few extra hands that are bluffs then those hands become extremely likely, and can even dominate the hand range.

In this hand, Joe only gave me credit for the most obvious hands. We hadn't played together much so maybe he was warrented in doing so, however it did cost him the pot.

Re: the river
 

Wow, NH. I think the turn play is the most interesting street for discussion.

Re: the river
 

This may be the most interesting limit hold em hand I've seen posted in the nearly 4 years I've been browsing 2+2.

Re: the river
 

I'm absolutely stunned by this hand. How come everyone on the planet knows he has a monster except for the 2 people actually involved in the hand.

Re: the river
 

I'm stunned that he folded trip kings. I never expected him to fold that.

[ QUOTE ]

I'm absolutely stunned by this hand. How come everyone on the planet knows he has a monster except for the 2 people actually involved in the hand.

[/ QUOTE ]
Knows is a strong word. I recognized the fact that he could have a strong hand after his turn check raise, and when he 4 bet I realzied it was very likely. But considering it is a blind steal situation with two very aggressive players and the fact that you can't see his cards I don't think it's correct to say you "know" he has a monster.

Also, his fold, while surprising, is still understandable. Aggressively saving bets is just as important as aggresively value betting.

Re: the river
 

"It looks to me like you tend to give your opponents credit for only their most obvious hands."

given that im only playing lower limits lately this is a major strength of my game.

im pretty pleased with my read btw of his hand and what he would do if you bet the end. self's back, meet pat. i wish i could play 2-4 with some of those donks, er, i mean, wcps again soon...


the one thing about this hand i didnt talk about, basically my initial revulsion for the turn, is the problem with assuming you have 8 clean outs. i think you have more like 5.5 or 6. he could have an A in his hand (less likely because he didnt pop it preflop) or a 9 with a pair, or one of the Qs taking up an out and spoiling the strange idea maybe if you pair up your 9 youre good.

ive been in these spots before and made these reraise semibluffs. ive done it with mixed results. i totally know the value of getting what seems like way out of line. now that ive stopped basically ever doing it guys like rick and gabe and lmd have to pay me off the max for the next 50 years every time i have them beat.

anyway your best play on the hand was showing him he was duped. this was one of the rare instances where that was a very valuable play.