Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

.. all about the girl who came to stay.

These are always fun. Opponent is 25/10/2

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (8 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (10.50 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, UTG+1 folds, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 caps</font>, MP2 folds, CO calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (11.75 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 3-bets</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero caps</font>, MP1 calls, CO calls.

River: (23.75 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises</font>, CO folds, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ? </font>

Yes, i have quads. Yes, i am considering not raising. Please don't just reply saying you have quads you have to 3 bet or 'he could be bluffing! raise!', if you think i should 3 bet include what you think his hand range is.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

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My 3 bet was a very in the heat of the battle. 45s def. needs to be extremely discounted that this player played it and then went so many bets on the turn with it. 44 needs to be discounted because it has to fear any 5 on the river and could have overcalled. So really it's 44 vs 55, i don't think 44 raises the river much, lets say half the time so that's 1.5 combos vs 1, and i go 2 bets vs quads, so it's a call; i don't think i can justify i 3 bet with the logic 'well he may be clowning around with a straight or even an overpair a very small percentage' since i think that percentage is 0. This thread seems pretty pointless other than it's a fun hand but i really need to work on not rushing my decisions and not thinking them through completely.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

Let's say his hand range is 55, 44, 54s and A3s. There is only combo of 54s left (hearts), and there's a strong chance he wouldn't play that from his position and also may not have played it so strong on the turn so let's simply ignore that hand.

A3s is pretty unlikely given his turn and continued river action so we'll give that a zero probability as well.

As for 55 and 44, the hand combinations suggest it's 3:1 in favor of 44 but he *might* have slowed up on the turn with it (fearing quads or set over set).

However, I don't think he slows down often enough to reduce it to 1:1 and I also think if hero 3-bets, 2 more bets are going in whether he holds 55 or 44 - so it's not like you gain one when ahead, lose two bets when behind.

Given these assumptions, I like a 3-bet.

Luke

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

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My 3 bet was a very in the heat of the battle. 45s def. needs to be extremely discounted that this player played it and then went so many bets on the turn with it. 44 needs to be discounted because it has to fear any 5 on the river and could have overcalled. So really it's 44 vs 55, i don't think 44 raises the river much, lets say half the time so that's 1.5 combos vs 1, and i go 2 bets vs quads, so it's a call; i don't think i can justify i 3 bet with the logic 'well he may be clowning around with a straight or even an overpair a very small percentage' since i think that percentage is 0. This thread seems pretty pointless other than it's a fun hand but i really need to work on not rushing my decisions and not thinking them through completely.

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I think your theory discounts that a lot of players would put you on a medium pair (66-TT) or A3 until you cap the turn and put you on something like 23s, A2 and most likely 44 after the cap. Which means that 45s, 56s and A5s are all possible.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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He either has 44 or 55 and maybe 54s. In the heat of the battle I would probably 3-bet. I'm sorry that I couldn't be of any more help.

Thanks,

Guido

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My 3 bet was a very in the heat of the battle. 45s def. needs to be extremely discounted that this player played it and then went so many bets on the turn with it. 44 needs to be discounted because it has to fear any 5 on the river and could have overcalled. So really it's 44 vs 55, i don't think 44 raises the river much, lets say half the time so that's 1.5 combos vs 1, and i go 2 bets vs quads, so it's a call; i don't think i can justify i 3 bet with the logic 'well he may be clowning around with a straight or even an overpair a very small percentage' since i think that percentage is 0. This thread seems pretty pointless other than it's a fun hand but i really need to work on not rushing my decisions and not thinking them through completely.

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I think your theory discounts that a lot of players would put you on a medium pair (66-TT) or A3 until you cap the turn and put you on something like 23s, A2 and most likely 44 after the cap. Which means that 45s, 56s and A5s are all possible.

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Playing 25% of hands includes 45s 56s EP?

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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2 more bets are going in whether he holds 55 or 44

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You think he caps 44 on a 25425 board?

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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Apart from preflop.

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a 25/10 player will limp a lot of hands after 1 limper.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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Apart from preflop.

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a 25/10 player will limp a lot of hands after 1 limper.

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If by a lot you mean roughly the top 20% of hands, i agree.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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2 more bets are going in whether he holds 55 or 44

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You think he caps 44 on a 25425 board?

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If he puts you on a 2!

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

im def not threebetting on the end.
why would this guy threebet 45 on fourth after the duece paired? when he threebets fourth street, seems like he must have 55/44/A3. i dont really see other hnds to get out of line.. 66/A5?? PLZ...
i dont think 44/A3 are raising the river, but maaaybe 44 would. looks like the rare one outer suckout followed by the one outer resuck... sick.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

I just cap when I have quads. Has worked out well so far.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

On Partypoker with quads I usually 4 bet and fold to a five bet.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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I just cap when I have quads. Has worked out well so far.

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How many bets would you go with no cap?

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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On Partypoker with quads I usually 4 bet and fold to a five bet.

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Thank you.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

I just call. Really.

GoT

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

only logical hand for him to have is 55, but id give him credit for doing something illogical before i gave him credit for quads.

thats just me though.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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he had quads.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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he had quads.

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play on bad beat jackpot tables next time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

no way are you good 2/3 of the time

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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You really think he's raising A3 on the river? C'mon.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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he had quads.

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play on bad beat jackpot tables next time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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that is sick. that wouldn't even qualify for the BBJ though

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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You really think he's raising A3 on the river? C'mon.

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or 44 for that matter

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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he had quads.

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play on bad beat jackpot tables next time [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

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that is sick. that wouldn't even qualify for the BBJ though

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oh yeah, lol.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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I just call. Really.

GoT

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Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

He either has 44 or 55. He has 3 ways of holding 44 and 1 way of holding 55. I think he'd play them both the same with an AF of 2. but see below. He will more likely cap a 3 bet only if he has quads because he'd fear you holding a 5X or 22 hand. So yes, I 3-bet and call a cap because it's more likely he holds 44. The penalty is worse if he holds 55.

If I can put him on 44 or 55
P(44) = 0.75 P(55) = 0.25, how many river bets in excess of the one he's called might I win?

<font color="red"> 3-betting </font>

Let's say he caps here with 44 50% of the time cuz he's aggressive but not stupid.

44: you win 3 BB 50% of the time and 1 BB 50% of the time. So you win average of 2BB when he holds 44 which is 75% of the time. <font color="blue"> +1.5 BB </font>

55: he caps 100%, you lose 3 BB all of the time @ 25%. <font color="blue"> -.75 BB </font>

3 betting has a net expectation of +.75 BB

<font color="red"> just calling </font>
44: you win 1 BB <font color="blue"> +0.75BB </font>
55: you lose 1BB <font color="blue"> -0.25 BB </font>

calling has a net expectation of +.5 BB


Buuuut, if you think his river raise means he's more likely to hold 55 rather than 44, say with 50/50 likelihood the numbers go :

3-bet with him holding 44 : +1BB
3-bet with him holding 55 : -1.5BB
call with him holding 44 : +0.5 BB
call with him holding 55 : -0.5 BB

So I guess, if you can put him on 44 or 55 (I totally rule out A3 when he raises the river) and you think his river raise makes it a bit more likely he holds 55 rather than 44, I think you should call.

uber-caveat : This situation happens so infrequently I don't think it's worth worrying about though (despite this post pretending otherwise) [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] but probably the principle applies for lesser hands eg set over set, frush over frush...

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

Seems like opponent's most likely hands are 44-55. There are 3 ways he could have 44 and 1 way he could have 55. But he might have slowed down at some point with 44. So let's say at this point he is 50% 44, 30% 55, and 20% something else. "Something else" might be a very aggressively played A5s or JJ for instance.

I think it's a raise, but I think it's very close. If you take my numbers, you are going to lose 1 bets 70% of the time, and win 1-2 bets 30% of the time. But winning 2 bets with a reraise is a realistic possibility, versus A5s for instace.

Because of the chance of winning 2 bets, I think it's a reraise. But it's close.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

Bet the flop.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

FFS his hand is basically ruined on the river if he has 44. Why would he raise the river with 44 unless he's an idiot? Call.

Re: Is there anybody going to listen to my story
 

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i put him on A3 and even 44, before 55. i raise, quads over quads......doubtful. so what happened?

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he had quads.

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if it makes you feel any better, at a 5-10 NL at The Bike, I once flopped quad Kings, the turn came with an Ace, we get it all in on the turn when and Ace comes, another Ace hits on the river and of course he flips over AA. That one cost me $900, so I feel for ya.