Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

No reads. When do I have reads anyway. Standard 109er.

Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: nierndav ( $2120 )
Seat 8: McShove ( $2680 )
Seat 7: Hero ( $1540 )
Seat 9: atwialt ( $3660 )
Trny:15897062 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5c Ad ]
>You have options at Table 11043 Table!.
McShove folds.
atwialt folds.
nierndav raises [1050].
Hero is all-In [1240]...

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

I do this very occasionally...and then I remeber why you should fold when you loose to k10 sooted. I would fold and Poosh the next hand.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

The gap concept is your friend. You shouldn't be calling a push with this on the bubble, IMO.

That said, if villain is of the "any 2" school you might stand to be ahead. And, FWIW, I am seeing Ax calls from the BB in this spot a lot lately.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

If you don't have Eastbay's tool yet, buy it. I just plugged this hand in.

If villain is shoving any 2 here, it's a call. If he's even *slightly* tighter than that, it's a fold.

I fold here.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

Oh wow. Bleh.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
No reads. When do I have reads anyway. Standard 109er.

Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 2: nierndav ( $2120 )
Seat 8: McShove ( $2680 )
Seat 7: Hero ( $1540 )
Seat 9: atwialt ( $3660 )
Trny:15897062 Level:7
Blinds(150/300)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 5c Ad ]
>You have options at Table 11043 Table!.
McShove folds.
atwialt folds.
nierndav raises [1050].
Hero is all-In [1240]...

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm pretty sure this is an obvious call

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't have Eastbay's tool yet, buy it. I just plugged this hand in.

If villain is shoving any 2 here, it's a call. If he's even *slightly* tighter than that, it's a fold.

I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow...incredible.. I'll run it. Also please note that from a theoretical standpoint, that means this is likely a call.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you don't have Eastbay's tool yet, buy it. I just plugged this hand in.

If villain is shoving any 2 here, it's a call. If he's even *slightly* tighter than that, it's a fold.

I fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]


octave- your numbers are wrong. This is very slightly +ev against the following range (+.05% EV):

22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s

as the SB should be pushing more than that, I think this is a clear call. Note also that this is +.4% EV if the SB is pushing 50% of hands, and +2.5% EV if they are pushing 100% of hands (which is certainly a possibility, although I would say that most players won't push this often)

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

I feel like the prettiest girl at the dance when curtains defends my slightly +EV play.

Thanks guys.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

Hmmmm. I must have plugged something in wrong. That's odd.

Sorry. Been one of the those weeks. I've really destroyed any credibility I had left on the forum. No lie.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

One of my pet hates here. Why reraise? There are idiots out there (and I'm sure not many in the 109s) who check things down when they miss, and there are also such things as misclicks, disconnects and simple multi-tabling errors reading situations.

Lori

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
If villain is shoving any 2 here, it's a call. If he's even *slightly* tighter than that, it's a fold.


[/ QUOTE ]

This made me panic so I just ran it and thankfully it looks like a call if villain is pushing around top 50% or more (22+, A2+, K2+, Q4o+, Q2s+, J8o+, J5s+, T9o, T7s+, 98s) Would you be pushing more than that here? I think I would be. Hope I ran the math right.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
I feel like the prettiest girl at the dance when curtains defends my slightly +EV play.

Thanks guys.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just because it's what I do doesn't make it good! (Although I think it is)

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
One of my pet hates here. Why reraise? There are idiots out there (and I'm sure not many in the 109s) who check things down when they miss, and there are also such things as misclicks, disconnects and simple multi-tabling errors reading situations.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

Probably the minute amount of EV you gain from just calling is not worth the energy, especially if you are playing many games at once. For instance when I 8 table I often just ignore stuff like this even though I know there is a chance that it may give me an absurdly small amount of EV over the longrun. It's just a headache to have to come back for action when other tournaments are going on at the same time.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

So you're saying call with 200 behind?

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

So, with my newfound knowledge...



Seat 1: aces1111 ( $3285 )
Seat 5: KOZMOKNOT ( $2915 )
Seat 6: MA3A777 ( $1795 )
Seat 8: Hero ( $2005 )
Trny:15898630 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ad 8d ]
aces1111 folds.
KOZMOKNOT folds.
>You have options at Table 14041 Table!.
MA3A777 is all-In [1595]
>You have options at Table 12507 Table!.
Hero calls [1395].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5d, 9s, 3d ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Th ]
MA3A777 shows [ 3h, As ] three of a kind, threes.
Hero shows [ Ad, 8d ] a pair of threes.
MA3A777 wins 3590 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, threes.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

OK, so let's talk about this for a second.

Ages ago, I thought conventional wisdom on the forum was not to call pushes on the bubble unless you held premium hands such as JJ+, AQ+, etc...

In this spot, however, calling is correct. This is purely a function of having such a low M, correct?

IE- If this was 2 levels ago, it would be a fold?

Just to be sure I am sane, this is what I get with any 2: +2.2% Maniac: +.1% (THIS IS $EV, not cEV.)

Also, it's telling me that Hero should be calling with the following range, if villain is indeed pushing any 2: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q4o+,Q2s+,J7o+,J4s+,T8o+,T7s+,97s+ (53%)

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

These figures are probably correct. The term maniac is silly in this spot, as it's almost surely to correct to raise with a wider range than that.

Your next assignment is to figure out how often the SB should push and in return how often the BB should call. For instance if the BB is going to call 53% of the time, as is theoretically correct if the SB pushes 100% of the time, then the SB should in reality only push about 39% of the time.

Also when doing these calculations remember to turn off your minimum edge or at least lower it. The .5% number is way too high IMO to yield accurate results.

I ask you to do this, because I'm too lazy to right now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]

These figures are probably correct. The term maniac is silly in this spot, as it's almost surely to correct to raise with a wider range than that.

Your next assignment is to figure out how often the SB should push and in return how often the BB should call. For instance if the BB is going to call 53% of the time, as is theoretically correct if the SB pushes 100% of the time, then the SB should in reality only push about 39% of the time.

Also when doing these calculations remember to turn off your minimum edge or at least lower it. The .5% number is way too high IMO to yield accurate results.

I ask you to do this, because I'm too lazy to right now [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

That's one hell of a guess Curtains. If I did this right, I am getting this result:

Villain push hands: 22+,A2+,K4o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q7s+,JTo,J9s+ (38%) <---!!!

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

Im quite sure you are doing it incorrectly, that is way too tight. Ill do it myself [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

Anyway the villian should push somewhere around 75-78% of the time and the hero shuold call about 35-36% of the time.

villian push hands - Push hands: 22+,A2+,K2+,Q3o+,Q2s+,J6o+,J2s+,T6o+,T2s+,96o+,92s +,85o+,82s+,75o+,73s+,65o,62s+,54o,52s+,42s+ (75%)

hero call hands - 22+,A2+,K5o+,K2s+,Q9o+,Q8s+,JTo,J9s+ (36%)

The above numbers are not precise but should be very close.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]

Im quite sure you are doing it incorrectly, that is way too tight. Ill do it myself [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

God damn it. Am I retarded? Here is what I did:

1. I changed the mode to "raise".
2. I manually moved the 53% call range to the BB.
3. I hit "compute all" and it gave me the push hands I posted.

What am I doing wrong?

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

Screw it, I never make bad beat posts.

***** Hand History for Game 2743075759 *****

Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: JJD925 ( $1626 )
Seat 3: Hero ( $2962 )
Seat 6: Scootage ( $1487 )
Seat 7: Nero_Black ( $2437 )
Seat 10: mrwyn ( $1488 )
Trny:15899208 Level:8
Blinds(200/400)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ac 9h ]
Scootage folds.
Nero_Black folds.
mrwyn folds.
>You have options at Table 11247 Table!.
JJD925 is all-In [1426]
jjd, you know i wouldnt do that
Hero calls [1226].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5h, Ks, 3h ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jd ]
me neither
JJD925 shows [ 9c, Js ] a pair of jacks.
Hero shows [ Ac, 9h ] high card ace.
JJD925 wins 3252 chips from the main pot with a pair of jacks.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Im quite sure you are doing it incorrectly, that is way too tight. Ill do it myself [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

God damn it. Am I retarded? Here is what I did:

1. I changed the mode to "raise".
2. I manually moved the 53% call range to the BB.
3. I hit "compute all" and it gave me the push hands I posted.

What am I doing wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

No you have to keep doing it over and over. Once you realize what the SB's push numbers are you then have to caluclate it again for the BB. For example if the SB should push only 38% of the time, I suspect the BB will now call only 15-20% of the time. If the SB knew the BB was that tight, they would of course push 100% of the time

You have to find the range where even if both players knew exactly what hands that their opponent would push/call with, neither player would adjust their play in response to this knowledge.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]

You have to find the range where even if both players knew exactly what hands that their opponent would push/call with, neither player would adjust their play in response to this knowledge.

[/ QUOTE ]

Utter horseshit voodoo! I think I'd rather just be a "feel" player from now on.

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Thanks for the explaination. I need to voluntarily go unconscious now. Zzzzzzzzz....

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

Agreed on all counts.

Wow.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]

22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't seem like way too tight a range for an average opponent.

I know the assumption is no read, but perhaps if he were pushing as much as he should have been there would have been a read that he were aggressive.

I'm not saying it's not a call against an average 109'er, but I think it's close and with any impression that the villian has been praying for 3rd, it is a fold.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

22+,A2+,K2+,Q2s+,Q6o+,J7s+,J9o+,T8s+,98s

[/ QUOTE ]

That doesn't seem like way too tight a range for an average opponent.

I know the assumption is no read, but perhaps if he were pushing as much as he should have been there would have been a read that he were aggressive.

I'm not saying it's not a call against an average 109'er, but I think it's close and with any impression that the villian has been praying for 3rd, it is a fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's one of those close decisions that I still think is a clear call, if that makes any sense.

I don't want to be abused, meanwhile its not that likely my opponent is signifigantly tighter than the above. Okay I admit that plenty of players are, but there are also plenty of players who will push with any 2, or push with a wider range than this. In any case I prefer to error on the caution of following theory, which states that against someone who plays well, A5o is a call.

If they play poorly I gain EV from them everytime they fold to me anyway. However if I fold against someone who is playing correctly, Im losing huge amounts of EV all over the place.

Probably the above makes no sense, but I like to be careful before assuming my opponents are playing incorrectly in this spot. It gives strong players the chance to crush you.

Re: Guessing this is horrible because I am bad. 109
 

$101 is close to $100, but it is clearly more.