now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

I'm at 1.51 BB/100 since they opened up the 30/60 games (which is when I started).

I haven't played as many hours as some of you guys, but I think I have enough hands to know I'm beating it.

anyone out there doing better than 2.0?

What's a reasonable long-term WR for a solid Trout?

-Scott

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I haven't played as many hours as some of you guys

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands have you logged? Or hours, if you only have that.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

I am at 2.33 bb/100 but after only 23K hands in the 30 game. I too only moved from the 15 games after they opened up the multiple 30 games. I 3 table. Playing 4 still F*cks me up.
I think that I can keep it at 2.0 plus long term assuming same level of competition.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't played as many hours as some of you guys

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands have you logged? Or hours, if you only have that.

[/ QUOTE ]

25k hands.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't played as many hours as some of you guys

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands have you logged? Or hours, if you only have that.

[/ QUOTE ]

25k hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive run at -.06bb/100 for 26k hands...and still have a fairly high wr.

Barron

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't played as many hours as some of you guys

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands have you logged? Or hours, if you only have that.

[/ QUOTE ]

25k hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive run at -.06bb/100 for 26k hands...and still have a fairly high wr.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

So what IS your WR?

-Scott

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I haven't played as many hours as some of you guys

[/ QUOTE ]

How many hands have you logged? Or hours, if you only have that.

[/ QUOTE ]

25k hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive run at -.06bb/100 for 26k hands...and still have a fairly high wr.

Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

So what IS your WR?

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

im not one to gloat and i dont believe in publishing a win rate. i believe many do share my belief.

your win rate, if you sustain it is definately good so keep it up and keep learning.

btw, if you want a range, i have friends w/ wr's between 1bb/100 and 2.5bb/100 (all people in this sample have over 75k hands. most have over 100k)

Barron

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

btw, if you want a range, i have friends w/ wr's between 1bb/100 and 2.5bb/100 (all people in this sample have over 75k hands. most have over 100k)

Thanks.

The purpose of my post is only to understand where I am compared to other respected 2+2ers. Not as an ego thing by any means, but to use it to judge where my 'game' is compared to many of you.

-Scott

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

Cmon seriously you know that winrate doesn't even come close to converging in 25k hands, especially in the aggressive high limit online games. You know you are beating the game that's about it at this point.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

Well, I'm at -.84BB/100 over 22.5K hands, and I'm pretty sure I can sustain that . I think I can even do better.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

Just a suggestion: perhaps you would get better results by PMing the people that you want to know about. For what should be obvious reasons, people might be reluctant to publicise their win rates on a forum. No?

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]

The purpose of my post is only to understand where I am compared to other respected 2+2ers.

[/ QUOTE ]


I would say that I don't think there are many people who are pulling more than 1.5BB/100 out of that game ... so, if you can keep up that rate, you should count yourself in a very elite group.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com
1.x/100 in that game, where x < 5 ... and < 1 ... and he has a horribly small sample size, so this stat is even less meaningful [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

1.5 is a very solid WR in that game. I would guess the best players with good decent table selection can make a little over two, and the ones with great table selection can do 2.5 or even a little more. Those are just ballpark guestimates however, and they could be skewed by the fact that i am currently running very well in the 30 game.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

Even over a 100k hand sample, this is just a "who's running the best?" contest. Seriously - don't get yourself wrapped up in this sort of thing. It won't give you an indication of how you size up against anybody really.
-James

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

I'm about 8 inches. I think that is about average.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

"25k hands."

lmfao

you need 700,000 hands to really know anything
 

"Even over a 100k hand sample, this is just a "who's running the best?" contest"

ding ding ding, WE HAVE A WINNER!

and medium stakes has turned into a "who's running good will now give out advice" forum.

700k hands and then you can step up to the plate and say you earn x/100 with confidence.

live players go f*ck yourselves, youll never know for sure if youre great. and online come back when youre reaching around 500k-700k until then shut up with your "well im taking 3.7 bb/100 out of stars 2-4" crap.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

nice post. welcome.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]
"25k hands."

lmfao

[/ QUOTE ]


25,000 is obviously far too little ... but I think you might be fine analyzing with a number less than your noted 500K-700K. But it's obviously FAR closer to 500K than 25K.

More hands = more gooder* analysis.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

* Don't judge me.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"25k hands."

lmfao

[/ QUOTE ]


25,000 is obviously far too little ... but I think you might be fine analyzing with a number less than your noted 500K-700K. But it's obviously FAR closer to 500K than 25K.

More hands = more gooder* analysis.

Barron Vangor Toth
BarronVangorToth.com

* Don't judge me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Far closer? 200 is closer to 25 than to 500. 300 is 75 closer to 500 than it is to 25. What qualifies as "Far closer"? 400k? 450k? If it's the 100k-200k that most people say, it's closer to 25k than 500k. Maybe FAR closer.

Hate to be a nit, but when people capitalize words, I TAKE IT SERIOUSLY.

Disagree
 

[ QUOTE ]
and medium stakes has turned into a "who's running good will now give out advice" forum.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's just wrong concept in my opinion. No one takes seriously people who are proud of 5bb/100 after 20K. But when this is after 50K - i will be the first who will ask for a DB.

People who're "running good" after 40-50K hands with your description have quite more probability to be top players then those who running average or bad and have lesser EV.

Of course you can't compare your winrate of 1 and think you're worse player with someone who has 1.7 after 70-80K hands.

But you really can say if someone after 50K has winrate of 4bb/100 and you have 1bb/100 - that he plays better than you with 90%+ probability and listen to his advices.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

I tend to disagree...well, sort of...

While I agree that how you are actually doing over 25K hands is not much help in figuring out where you might be after 500K hands, your own subjective but honest analysis of your play in comparison with the competition should enable you to have some idea where you should end up in the long term (assuming competition remains at the same level).

In live play, you can roughly size up where you stand at a given table in about an hour. It takes longer online given the number of players you might face, lack of visual clues etc. but nevertheless, one should have a pretty good idea after playing "X" hands. I don't know what X is exactly, but IMO it's certainly not 200K or even 100K.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

There has to be some math to settle this. I don't know much about stats, but I have to think that given a standard deviation, you can tell exactly how many hands you need to get your win rate to +/- .1 BB/100. Anyone know I'm wrong or want to do the math if I'm right? If I'm right, this should have been settled a long time ago.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
There has to be some math to settle this. I don't know much about stats, but I have to think that given a standard deviation, you can tell exactly how many hands you need to get your win rate to +/- .1 BB/100. Anyone know I'm wrong or want to do the math if I'm right? If I'm right, this should have been settled a long time ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

It gets settled every single time it comes up, but it's hard to grasp.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
I tend to disagree...well, sort of...

While I agree that how you are actually doing over 25K hands is not much help in figuring out where you might be after 500K hands, your own subjective but honest analysis of your play in comparison with the competition should enable you to have some idea where you should end up in the long term (assuming competition remains at the same level).

In live play, you can roughly size up where you stand at a given table in about an hour. It takes longer online given the number of players you might face, lack of visual clues etc. but nevertheless, one should have a pretty good idea after playing "X" hands. I don't know what X is exactly, but IMO it's certainly not 200K or even 100K.

[/ QUOTE ]

I usually know where I stand at a table in a few orbits. Knowing if you are a favorite in a game is far different from knowing your exact winrate - or even calculating your winrate within 1 bb/100. GoT did some calculations and concluded that it's possible for a "true" 1.8/100 winner to win like 3+bb/100 or .5ish bb/100. Combine this with the fact that players are bound to change their play from the beginning of a meaningful stretch of hand to the end, and obsessing over your bb/100 rate is little more than an act in futility.
-James

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

In retrospect, I now think that we are in agreement. At least, I agree with what you are saying. I am simply saying that after X number of hands, you should have a feel for where you might be in the long run in terms of bb/100 but whether or not you actually are at it (plus or minus) is quite another matter.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

[ QUOTE ]
obsessing over your bb/100 rate is little more than an act in futility.
-James

[/ QUOTE ]


[img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img] 5BB/100
[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 3BB/100
[img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img] 2BB/100
[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 1BB/100
[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img] 0.5BB/100
[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] 0BB/100
[img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] -1BB/100
[img]/images/graemlins/mad.gif[/img] -2BB/100

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60?
 

[ QUOTE ]
nice post. welcome.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks, ive been a long time reader, and am a regular at the 30/60 game. When I saw this opportunity for comedy I had to take it.

Man I totally forgot
 

What a bunch of arrogant pricks now inhabit the mid-high forum.

you can all go blow me.

-Scott

How bout people respond
 

by filling in the following blank:

My stats tell me that I am 95% sure my win rate is greater than _________.

You win rate - 1.67*s.d. should do it.

Seems like a pretty simple way to get around all this sample size stuff.

Re: now that we\'ve had some time, whats a solid WR for the Party 30/60
 

Then what's the settlement? I'm actually interested in a number or a reasonable range.

Re: Man I totally forgot
 

[ QUOTE ]
What a bunch of arrogant pricks now inhabit the mid-high forum.

you can all go blow me.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you aren't referring to my post. I was being totally serious and not trying to be condescending. All I'm saying is that there are far more accurate ways to size up how you're doing than checking your bb/100 after 25k hands. Relax, Scott.
-James

Re: Man I totally forgot
 

overreacting a bit here, some people just found "witty" ways of saying we still don't know, and 100k is a very arbitrary figure. The consensus is your a winner and are doing well, and no one really has a great idea what is doable, but the best can probably make 2-2.5 bb/100. How is that?

Re: Man I totally forgot
 

"you can all go blow me."

well..okay... but only because youve already got it whipped out for all to see.

Re: How bout people respond
 

I don't do stats much, but isn't it 1.92? I hope not, because that is what I've been using, and I'd much prefer a lower number.

response to dpr*

Re: How bout people respond
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't do stats much, but isn't it 1.92? I hope not, because that is what I've been using, and I'd much prefer a lower number.

response to dpr*

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you meant 1.96. Regardless, that is for 95% confindence for a two sided test (i.e. your win rate is greater than x but less than y). For a 1 sided test the 95% z-value is the same as for the 90% 2 sided test.

Re: How bout people respond
 

Sorry to keep showing my ignorance... and yes i meant 1.96. If you take a hypothetical winrate and STDEV like 2 - (1.67*15), aren't you going to get a silly-low number?

Re: Man I totally forgot
 

[ QUOTE ]
"you can all go blow me."

well..okay... but only because youve already got it whipped out for all to see.

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome. some of your best work ever, and in one sentance.

Re: How bout people respond
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sorry to keep showing my ignorance... and yes i meant 1.96. If you take a hypothetical winrate and STDEV like 2 - (1.67*15), aren't you going to get a silly-low number?

[/ QUOTE ]

Divide the 15 by the square root of your total hands/100 (divide first)

Re: How bout people respond
 

I saw this post for days and didn't open it. Then I opened it today because I wanted to roll my eyes at something. I was pleasantly surprised to see that practically no one replied with an actual BB/100 number. I was going to make a reply to this thread in such a nature until I read your post. Then I decided to make this reply instead.