What is your play here?
 

***** Hand History for Game 2715842051 *****
$400 PL Omaha Hi/Lo - Thursday, September 15, 14:21:38 EDT 2005
Table Table 36723 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: rainaruby ( $581.50 )
Seat 4: joeybadman ( $404.10 )
Seat 5: laupnevarc ( $231.60 )
Seat 6: CooLzRuLz ( $542.75 )
Seat 7: Ribbo ( $835.51 )
Seat 8: Vcard_ ( $186.25 )
Seat 2: ismellgood ( $496.85 )
Seat 10: Kiss_Cassie ( $396.80 )
Seat 3: ALLIE3911 ( $382.02 )
Seat 9: ArtDee ( $200 )
ALLIE3911 posts small blind [$2].
joeybadman posts big blind [$4].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Ribbo [ Ts Kh 9c Kd ]
CooLzRuLz folds.
Ribbo calls [$4].
Vcard_ folds.
ArtDee folds.
Kiss_Cassie folds.
rainaruby folds.
ismellgood raises [$18].
ALLIE3911 calls [$16].
joeybadman folds.
Ribbo calls [$14].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 7s, 9h, Qc ]
ALLIE3911 checks.
Ribbo checks.
ismellgood checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Th ]
ALLIE3911 bets [$25].

Ribbo.....

Re: What is your play here?
 

Folding is never an option for Ribbo...

Re: What is your play here?
 

I would flat-call, because I make bad decisions, and then you have to be worried about the 3rd guy raising and possible huge river bets.

You are beat by several hands, and don't have a draw to the nut straight, nut straight, or any flush. Wouldn't you base the decision partly on PTO Stats?

I guess you could also be in the lead with 2 pair, against possible straight draw/flush draw wraps. How about a minimum raise here, and fold to any re-raise? I dunno.

Re: What is your play here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would flat-call, because I make bad decisions, and then you have to be worried about the 3rd guy raising and possible huge river bets.

You are beat by several hands, and don't have a draw to the nut straight, nut straight, or any flush. Wouldn't you base the decision partly on PTO Stats?

I guess you could also be in the lead with 2 pair, against possible straight draw/flush draw wraps. How about a minimum raise here, and fold to any re-raise? I dunno.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at the 4 cards in your hand you hold and look at the size of the bet from the opponent. Does that look like someone with KJ to you? If it doesn't, why not use the fact you have position to your advantage. You know your opponent very very likely does not have the nuts.

I actually bottled it and only made it $75 to go, but he folded anyway.

Re: What is your play here?
 

You're right, not a bad time to represent the straight, or even just your 2-pair (which might be good here).

I know at lower levels, QQxx or AAxx with flush or straight draws might not go away that quickly.

Re: What is your play here?
 

[ QUOTE ]

Look at the 4 cards in your hand you hold and look at the size of the bet from the opponent. Does that look like someone with KJ to you? If it doesn't, why not use the fact you have position to your advantage. You know your opponent very very likely does not have the nuts.

I actually bottled it and only made it $75 to go, but he folded anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]
At the same time, why would your opponents think it reasonable for you to have a better hand, having limped in EP then calling a pot raise PF? (I play very little PL but KKT9 looks like an easy PF fold to me, especially in early position)

What about the PF raiser still to act? Can you expect him to fold AA here even with the nut flush draw?

Re: What is your play here?
 

Does that look like someone with KJ to you

I did about the same like what you've done and got called once, the river paired so no one bet (I tempted with my position). Villain held KJ (He had nothing else related to the board so he was afraid of free-rolling so he didn't play back at me, I guessed) while I had 2 Ks.

Don't count on it.

Edited: Btw, the river didn't pair mine.

Re: What is your play here?
 

If the river blanks I pot, but it's like any other situation, they hit their draw they will bet, otherwise they will check fold to your bet.

The point is anyone with a lower straight on the turn cannot afford to call 2 bets in a pot limit game. Folding is the only option on the turn.

Re: What is your play here?
 

Excellent pressure bet there Ribbo. Are you folding if he flat calls and leads if/when the river blanks?

Re: What is your play here?
 

If you think he's bluffing, raise; otherwise fold. Your cards don't matter much here.

A 1/2 pot bet smells like a non-nut straight, a flush draw, or the nut straight with no redraws.

Re: What is your play here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he's bluffing, raise; otherwise fold. Your cards don't matter much here.

A 1/2 pot bet smells like a non-nut straight, a flush draw, or the nut straight with no redraws.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your cards matter a hell of a lot. The fact that you hold 2 of the 4 kings in the deck on a QT9 board help your decision a ton facing the bet. What is important to remember here is if you hold the nuts, and you are out of position you have to bet the pot when everyone has such deep stacks. This says to me that person did not have the nuts. If you know someone does not have the nuts and you have position on them this is where you can raise. What is important here is that the opponent thinks they have not shown weakness, so a raise from you is a sign of absolute strength. One that makes it easy to fold an idiot end straight. Players know not to call such a raise with a bad straight as they know another big bet is coming on the river. If they do call, it is because they have a draw.

Re: What is your play here?
 

I'd fold. I've been burned by enough idiots calling this raise down (as well as a river bet on a blank) with the lower straight at this level. Also, having two blockers doesn't mean he can't have the nuts, and some players actually would put in a weird bet with it here.

Throw in the fact that smellgood is left to act behind you (and I'm sure your notes also describe him as an unpredictable idiot, equally capable of holding QQJK here as 2222), and I don't think it's worth a 1:1 risk to win the pot, which is about what you'd be looking at with a raise big enough to induce a fold.

Re: What is your play here?
 

http://www.cs.berkeley.edu/~bfields/banguns.jpg

Re: What is your play here?
 

All options are valid. I'd prefer raise, fold, call in that order, but it depends on opponents/table, etc.

-greg