Am I getting too cocky?
 

(By thinking i can limp J9s here?)

Party 100/200 - full table. I'm up a few bucks but only been playing maybe a half hour.

Chiplederer (25/12/1.76) limps utg, I limp 2 spots later with J9 of spades, folded to Durress (tag) who completes, Fucngr8t (29/17/1.41) checks his option in the bb. I've played quite a few hands with Fucng8t but they've all been raised pots. I've been making some very good plays vs him and have been keeping him off balance by checking a lot of flops after being the PFR because he's a huge flop check/raiser. His flop c/r % is 3, while his turn and river c/r %'s are pretty low.

Flop comes Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
checked to me and I bet, sb folds, fucng8t calls, utg folds.
Turn 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
he checks, I bet, he calls.

River: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
He checks. bk?

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

In these sposts against an agro player (where it's my only chance of winning) I fire the last bullet way too often.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I would check behind as he's not folding any hand you beat, nor do I think he lays down any hand that can not win.

I think he is likely to have 5s-3s. Plus I want the info about what hand he has in an unraised pot that he is check/calling down.

The value of seeing his hand is worth more to me than the chance he check/raising me and I don't get to see his hand even if that's a small chance.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

Sounds like this player would have checkraised that flop with an A high flush draw. I would check behind and hope he has smaller spades.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I think these siutations are very instinctual, so i wont tell what i would do here. I would tell you that i would be surprised if you can make money limping here in the long run, even in the 30 game.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

If its a good table the limps fine. If he is a huge flop checkraiser its hard to put him on a hand here. Sounds like he really likes to define his hands, so I would believe he would checkraise the flop with a flush draw or an 8. Probably a bad queen. I check

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

That river overcard is often a good one to continue a bluff with. Since he doesn't c/r the river very often, I think I'd give it a shot.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

Naw, you've always been too cocky.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

when im probably calling someone down because i think they might be bluffing and they bet the river even though it's an overcard i love it because it just further justifies my read that theyre bluffing.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I would check behind as he's not folding any hand you beat, nor do I think he lays down any hand that can not win.

I think he is likely to have 5s-3s. Plus I want the info about what hand he has in an unraised pot that he is check/calling down.

The value of seeing his hand is worth more to me than the chance he check/raising me and I don't get to see his hand even if that's a small chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wtf?

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

if there was EVER a river to fire again. thats it.

Barron

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would check behind as he's not folding any hand you beat, nor do I think he lays down any hand that can not win.

I think he is likely to have 5s-3s. Plus I want the info about what hand he has in an unraised pot that he is check/calling down.

The value of seeing his hand is worth more to me than the chance he check/raising me and I don't get to see his hand even if that's a small chance.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wtf?

[/ QUOTE ]

I thought the same thing until I realized he must've meant 55-33, not 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

would an 8 c/r the flop?

i think he is confused by your limp and decided to call down.

the only hand that folds that beats you is A high, and i can't really see him having that.

but no you're not getting too cocky.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

Bet.

Btw, where's the cocky part?

Lawrence

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet.

Btw, where's the cocky part?

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

The limping J9s mp1 after a limper.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]
In these sposts against an agro player (where it's my only chance of winning) I fire the last bullet way too often.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I would def bet this river - but then again I probably bluff a little more than I should.

[ QUOTE ]
Bet.

Btw, where's the cocky part?

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

I think he's implying it's "cocky" to limp J9s in EP, with the expectation that he'll be able to make up for the marginal/incorrect preflop call with his stellar post-flop playing skillz.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]

The limping J9s mp1 after a limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

ha ha i was right. too bad i take too long to reply [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

The limping J9s mp1 after a limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

ha ha i was right. too bad i take too long to reply [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Heh, I only said it at the top line of the thread. Don't know why it eluded so many people.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I reckon he has an 8 and doesn't believe you have the Q.

Or Kx, maybe in spades and is planning an ambush.

will he fold the river often enough here? Probably, since there are two cards he probably doesn't like showing, so I bet and fold to a raise.

Would he think I would maybe limping with a Queen or King? That's probably the key judgement here. He probably appreciates you also fire with blanks now and then.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

but if he thinks bk has become too cocky, then he might just call down with his Qx to extract the max.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet.

Btw, where's the cocky part?

Lawrence

[/ QUOTE ]

The limping J9s mp1 after a limper.

[/ QUOTE ]

IMO it's borderline.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

[ QUOTE ]
when im probably calling someone down because i think they might be bluffing and they bet the river even though it's an overcard i love it because it just further justifies my read that theyre bluffing.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. If BK had raised preflop, he "might" get a laydown because the opponent "might" be afraid an overplayed AK got there. But since he's just another limper, he's gonna get called.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I love this stuff. Find something about your game that may not be tight.

This is an easy limp for me, I would probably also limp 98s, 87s, and T8s....BUT I have no idea if that is good or not, and isolating my rates here with PT probably doesnt help much either. hmmmmmmmmmmmm anyone else?

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

It'd have to be a passive game for me to limp those ones you just listed. But unless its a VERY (3bets multiway preflop often) aggressive game I'm playing the J9s. Again, I'm totally guessing about where the line between +EV and -EV is here. How bad of an Axs will you play here?

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I think he is likely to have 5s-3s.
I'm laughing at this post, and BK knows why.

The way that game was playing this doesn't seem too bad, as at the time it got damn loose when ep's limped - 5 to a raised pot at 1/2? c'mon

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I'd overlimp down to A5s here.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

He's betting this river after his opponent checks. There's a difference in this than in betting when an overcard hits when you're first to act. Then an opponent would be more suspicious since he bet right into the overcard. Betting behind the check carries more weight. Also, some guys decide they're calling the turn but might not call a river bet, reasoning that their opponent would fire one more shot on the turn without a hand, but would likely give up on the river.

Not a clear decision, especially since bk's opponent might think he would have raised pre-flop with a hand that contained a king. But, like I say, I think I'd give it a shot. I guess the predicament he now finds himself in is why bk thought he might be getting a bit "cocky" limping with J-9s to begin with.

Re: Am I getting too cocky?
 

I check. He doesn't have a particular reason to assume you have a K (i.e. you didn't raise pf) and therefore that "scare card" which isn't so much of a scare card will not cause him to fold a pair - not that it's likely that he's paired anyway based on his play so far.

He could easily have spades, and since you beat most spade draws, don't bet the river.