99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Button is new to the table, but I want to think he is aggressive given his image(baby with pokerstars knit cap).
BB is aggressive 27/14/1.8 and I put him on a wide range.
UTG has a high WTSD% of 42, with VP$IP = 37 over a short sample.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls...

Please comment on all streets. Oh and I normally raise 99 preflop, but something here told me to play for set value. I had been raising a lot preflop and was starting to get played back at quite a bit in this game. Looking back at the table being 8 handed I think this was a mistake. Thoughts?

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

You really need to raise this pre-flop. If you're been raising often and people are more likely to play back at you then they're more likely to play back at you with hands that you do well against. If someone 3 bets you with AJ or AT or KQ, realize that they're going to most often narrow the field which adds a ton of value to your hand and lets you play without playing for set value.

I guess the hand looks fine, otherwise. I'm not sure about the flop call, but I guess its fine given your reads.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Button is new to the table, but I want to think he is aggressive given his image(baby with pokerstars knit cap).
BB is aggressive 27/14/1.8 and I put him on a wide range.
UTG has a high WTSD% of 42, with VP$IP = 37 over a short sample.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls...

Please comment on all streets. Oh and I normally raise 99 preflop, but something here told me to play for set value. I had been raising a lot preflop and was starting to get played back at quite a bit in this game. Looking back at the table being 8 handed I think this was a mistake. Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]
In this spot with just one limper in front of me, and im in middle position I usually raise preflop, but limping for set value isnt a horrible idea either given the fact that you are still in early middle position. And youre right as far as being in an 8 player game means you have even more incentive to raise here. In the long run it shouldnt matter much how you play 99 in this spot, so I wouldnt worry about how you played preflop, you seem to have a good understanding of how to play 99 preflop anyways so lets move on. On the flop, your check and call play is standard in my opinion since even if youre trailing you have the odds to see one more, and if you somehow do have the best hand a bet by you will not likely fold anyone is this huge pot, and youll probably get raised by a better hand anyways so just pay one small bet to see the turn. I would check the turn and fold if the button bets, but the button checked so lets go to the river. Should you call or not? What hand does the utg guy have? I have no idea. What I do know is that the utg is betting this river with 4 opponents yet to act in this large pot. Which means if he is sane, he cannot be bluffing in this spot, he must have a hand that he believes will win if hes called. I think you can safely fold in this spot even given the large pot odds. Also if you did think the utg was capable of a crazy bluff like this or capable of betting a very weak hand in this spot, you should consider raising to shut out anyone with a better hand than you. In a large pot like this, investing two big bets to potentially fold a better hand is worth it as long as you think the initial bettor is capable of betting a weaker hand than you. So I would fold the river, but i dont think calling is all that bad. You really didnt make any huge mistake in this hand. Next time raise preflop.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

wow....

preflop is playable either as a limp or a raise

flop seems a clear bet to me in the hope that aggressive button will raise and clear the field. check calling the flop in order to wait for a non-threatening turn card seems ill-advised (any over, any 2 flush card, any 2 or any 8 are threats).

when the perfect card turns, bet!

the river is close to a raise, imho. utg looks like he may be taking a stab at it with everyone showing such weakness.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

I don't like the thought of playing 99 for set value there is ever really worth it. IMO its too strong of a hand to not raise and do your best to get it HU against the limper.

I think a turn bet could have some value. Probably no one will fold, but if you can get a hand like AK, AJ, JJ, or 1010 to possibly fold, then we did something good

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

i'd have raised preflop.

easy flop peel.

like how that turn played out.

not so sure about the river. i think you're beat a lot here, but pot is huge, etc. etc. i'm assuming you wouldn't overcall... still, what do you put UTG on? and as aggressive as the BB is... how many hands is that read on? because he's not too far out of line.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

why would you want to bet the flop and clear the field to be headsup when there's a big overcard on board and if you're not behind already, your opponents certainly have outs against you?

plus, this pot is huge, and even a bet/raise isn't necessarily likely to clear things up. the only reason to see the turn is that this is 1:23 coming back to you. you're peeling for a miracle here, and the implied odds from your hit will help offset any loss.

when the turn drops, i'm assuming hero was planning to check/fold to a bet. when it gets checked through...

i'm assuming UTG has a non AQ hand with a Q in it. the pot is big enough, and the two preflop aggressors have slowed down to the point where it's reasonable to assume they have unimproved overs (or, less likely, but possible, JJ or TT). since they may not overcall, and the pot is large, a call seems pretty close here. UTG probably expects to be called, however. the question is whether he bets a pair that isn't a Q to lead the river.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

Although I don't agree with the preflop play, it has its merit i guess, I just love 9's too much to limp, esp. in that situation. but on the flop, I think you get a perfect chance to bet into the capper, which will probably allow you to cut most of the people out.I think you need to bet the turn as well, and probably fold to a raise on the turn.

The river, it looks like the UTG came alive, probably with his 8 or a middle pair. So the river seems like a fine check/call, you can't raise him here I don't think because the BB is still to act, although its tempting.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why would you want to bet the flop and clear the field to be headsup when there's a big overcard on board and if you're not behind already, your opponents certainly have outs against you?

plus, this pot is huge, and even a bet/raise isn't necessarily likely to clear things up. the only reason to see the turn is that this is 1:23 coming back to you. you're peeling for a miracle here, and the implied odds from your hit will help offset any loss.

when the turn drops, i'm assuming hero was planning to check/fold to a bet. when it gets checked through...

i'm assuming UTG has a non AQ hand with a Q in it. the pot is big enough, and the two preflop aggressors have slowed down to the point where it's reasonable to assume they have unimproved overs (or, less likely, but possible, JJ or TT). since they may not overcall, and the pot is large, a call seems pretty close here. UTG probably expects to be called, however. the question is whether he bets a pair that isn't a Q to lead the river.

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I don't understand why the lone Q on the flop is discouraging to you. This is much better than average flop for hero. The 2 villains are aggro. I don't want to get too deep into this hand if I'm behind yet I want to narrow the field so as to lessen the likelihood of being outdrawn. So I will invest 2 SB on the flop to reduce the field.

Check calling the flop just invites getting outdrawn on the big streets if we happen to be good at the moment.

As played. on the turn, this seems like a clear value bet to me (you may have some small fold equity here, too). Villain, holding a Q, ought be betting the turn.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

it's been capped preflop a billion ways. please explain to me how betting, even if it's followed by a raise, is going to prevent you from getting drawn out on
[edited to add: assuming you were going to get drawn out on by checking], if you're not already behind.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

further, we don't know that button is aggressive at all, let alone overly aggressive. and he just raised/capped the field and is yet to act. please put him on a range of hands.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

I would have raised preflop. I think that would have put you in a more commanding position during post flop play.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

My "read" that button may be aggressive is from the OP's own words, tentative as they are. But even if he is not "overly" aggressive, he did cap preflop and, as such, I want to use him to limit the field.

Yeah, I may be behind to him and lose. But if I succeed in getting it heads up or 3 way, I have increased my pot equity significantly.

Be gentle with me on the calc below, i suck at this and am using this opportunity to improve.

AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AK,AQs,AJs are the reasonble hand ranges.
6+6+3+6+6+16+3+4=50 total hands
we are ahead of 20 hands

We have 40% pot equity but are very, very vulnerable to being drawn out upon.

Isn't the preceding sentence consistant with trying to reduce the field?

I rarely do this sort of mathmatical analysis and would appreciate yours and others critique, here.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

I think the problem here is if the button holds AA,KK,QQ,JJ,TT,AQ,KQ hero needs to hit a 2-outer to win or is drawing near dead. Limiting the field would not accomplish much.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

Booooo! Raise preflop. Bet the turn. etc... Remember, you want people to cold call your 99 raise with trash.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

You are certainly correct but, imh and many-times wrong opinion, the calculation on the efficacy of the flop raise is a Baysean-type analysis and must take into account fold equity and other factors that I am not competent to calculate. You are rarely, in poker, in a position where you are certainly ahead. Betting and raising are devices to increase the pot if you win, certainly, but are more importantly devices to manipulate the field into coming along or folding, as best meets your needs.

A rather simplistic idea is if we have 40% equity on the flop before betting, how much additional equity can we gain by facing the field with 2 bets? This is pretty much Fold Equity. I can't calculate it but I can recognize it.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

of those hands of which you are ahead, you'll please note that all of them have outs against you.

there's no way you have 40% pot equity against three opponents here... there's virtually no way you can force anyone out on the flop no matter how you play the hand, and there's a BUNCH of scary cards that can fall on the turn. you can't protect your hand, you don't have enough equity to bet/raise, so you're waiting for the turn, and hoping to hit.

a donk bet (from you) on the turn when the safe card falls might have some merit. in such a scenario, you're preventing the button from getting a free look at the river with his AKs. you may not be folding anyone out, but at least here the bet is better.

if the button had bet the turn, and been called in two places, it becomes increasingly unlikely that even on the safe turn that your 99 will hold up, and i think a fold would be an option here.

as the hand actually played out, it was checked around. NOW it appears your hand is likely best. the river becomes complicated by UTG, who now bets. it's a large enough pot, and from the way the hand played out it seems relatively certain that your hand is better than the two preflop aggressors, so I'd call. but it's close.



further, at this point, the preflop capper is the opponent to be most afraid of. however, there's nothing you can do on the flop to protect your hand. lastly, if you're behind, you're drawing to two outs. for the handful of times you're ahead on this flop, you're dominated far more.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

you don't have 40% equity on the flop.

poster certainly made things difficult with his read non-read of the button, but if you read his read in context (laugh, that was funny)... it isn't a read at all. besides, even overly aggressive players are not typically capping light. your best hope is that you're up against AKs, and, say, AJs or something. between the three of them, a higher pocket pair and/or a Q is not unlikely. you have zero fold equity on this flop. maybe on the turn, depending on the action, but not on the flop.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

to further my many furthers... you're hoping to get this headsup with a worse hand, correct? so not only are you hoping that the button will raise and your other, loose, opponents will fold their hands that, if not better, are at least filled with out against you, in this huge-ass pot... but that your overly aggressive button will raise this flop behind you with a worse hand than you.

that's an awful lotta wishin' and hopin' and prayin'

RESULTS.
 

[ QUOTE ]
PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter

Button is new to the table, but I want to think he is aggressive given his image(baby with pokerstars knit cap).
BB is aggressive 27/14/1.8 and I put him on a wide range.
UTG has a high WTSD% of 42, with VP$IP = 37 over a short sample.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, SB calls, <font color="#CC3333">BB 3-bets</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button caps</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (20 SB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets</font>, SB folds, BB calls, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks, Button checks.

River: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls...

[/ QUOTE ]

Button calls, BB folds.

UTG = 33.
Button = AK.
Hero wins with a pair of 9s.

Thanks for the discussion.

Re: RESULTS.
 

bet the turn next time.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

Re: RESULTS.
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet the turn next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

[ QUOTE ]
of those hands of which you are ahead, you'll please note that all of them have outs against you.

there's no way you have 40% pot equity against three opponents here... there's virtually no way you can force anyone out on the flop no matter how you play the hand, and there's a BUNCH of scary cards that can fall on the turn. you can't protect your hand, you don't have enough equity to bet/raise, so you're waiting for the turn, and hoping to hit.

a donk bet (from you) on the turn when the safe card falls might have some merit. in such a scenario, you're preventing the button from getting a free look at the river with his AKs. you may not be folding anyone out, but at least here the bet is better.

if the button had bet the turn, and been called in two places, it becomes increasingly unlikely that even on the safe turn that your 99 will hold up, and i think a fold would be an option here.

as the hand actually played out, it was checked around. NOW it appears your hand is likely best. the river becomes complicated by UTG, who now bets. it's a large enough pot, and from the way the hand played out it seems relatively certain that your hand is better than the two preflop aggressors, so I'd call. but it's close.



further, at this point, the preflop capper is the opponent to be most afraid of. however, there's nothing you can do on the flop to protect your hand. lastly, if you're behind, you're drawing to two outs. for the handful of times you're ahead on this flop, you're dominated far more.

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1. I agree that I don;t have 40% pot equity after assessing the re-draws (as I thought I said in my post), I just couldn;t quantify that haircut.
2. We disagree on the FOld Equity concept. Lots of hands are folding for 2 bets on the flop even though the pot is big.
3. I advocated leading the turn when the safe card hits, as played by OP and as I envisioned playing it.
4. If button had bet the turn and got called in 2 places, I believe that we would have had odds to call our 2 outer, but that is easily calculable.
5. River is, I agree, easily callable.
6. I think it improper to classify our flop position as only being ahead a "handful of times," especially after seeing the turn action.
7. Lastly, investing the additional SB on the flop (the issue that I first raised and that you took and take exception to, may allow us to release this hand earlier and more cheaply when we are behind, a concept not heretofore raised in the analysis.

This has been a very interesting discussion and I am greatful to have had the time and clarity to have participated.

Any others have thoughts, here?

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

the fact that the turn was checked through and the river is a blank (and an undercard to our pair) means UTG doesn't have to have a Q. he might, but the range of his hands is wide open. betting the turn would help solve this equation.

Re: RESULTS.
 

[ QUOTE ]
bet the turn next time.

[/ QUOTE ]

Elaborate a bit? This is easy to say after button checks through but we know nothing about him and he capped preflop and bet the flop. We're not ahead often.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

1. we're cool
2. i disagree... and if they are folding, we're not gaining many outs (say, absolute tops, 6, if we fold a JT and button has AKs).... but i think the biggest argument is that in order for this to be the right play you have to peg button for precisely AKs AND the propensity to raise it if bet into
3. nice
4. you would be getting 1:15 on your turn call. you're drawing to 2:46... you don't have the odds... except that you might still be ahead. however... you shouldn't check the turn.
5. yup
6. this is precisely why we're disagreeing on this hand. you're taking a look at the turn action to justify flop actions. however, when you don't have the benefit of knowing in advance that the button will check behind on the turn, AND that the turn is not a scare card, you can't so easily make that flop judgement.
7. if you're raised on the flop (after leading) and the turn is a, do you bet again? do you check/fold? what happens if it's raised and called in two places, it gets checked around, and the river comes up a K? the point is, there's a ton of cards that can fall on the turn that are bad for us, and we may already be behind, we can see the turn cheaply, probably, and if not (someone is c/r'ing the flop), we can get out for the absolute minimum (zero)

this is a pretty clear wait for the turn scenario. on this favorable turn, you've got to bet the turn to prevent AKs from getting a free shot to outdraw you.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

[ QUOTE ]
i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

given the turn action, utg can easily be construed as taking a shot at the pot. after all, noone has shown any aggression postflop.

Re: RESULTS.
 

it's either bet/fold or check/fold. assuming villain caps preflop with AK, it's far more likely that he has that than a AKs or AKo. if he has JJ or TT, or they're out there, any combination of betting/calling at this point may force them out. but really, the point is to prevent AK from drawing for free. if you're raised, easy fold. if you're called, easy check on the river (and the only person that should reasonably have a Q after it's checked to you on the turn is, perhaps, UTG). it's a big pot, do everything you can to win it. here, that means not offering infinite odds on the turn to hands with outs against you. on the flop, with two cards to come and offering odds for everyone to call you with anything, there's no point.

i had originally been ok with the turn check, and i'm willing to hear argument that it's preferable, but the more i've analyzed this hand, the more clear it becomes that a turn bet is best.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i can't see how people can suggest calling that river based on how the hand was played and what you put villains' both preflop and flop. that is, unless you think UTG is cold calling all that PRF betting with 77/55/33 or has A8 or something here on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

given the turn action, utg can easily be construed as taking a shot at the pot. after all, noone has shown any aggression postflop.

[/ QUOTE ]

that may be true and obviously my guess of hands that he would have to have to bet this river was true: 33. in this case i was mistaken by the "fold suggestion", but my turn donkbet was full of wisdom [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You really need to raise this pre-flop. If you're been raising often and people are more likely to play back at you then they're more likely to play back at you with hands that you do well against. If someone 3 bets you with AJ or AT or KQ, realize that they're going to most often narrow the field which adds a ton of value to your hand and lets you play without playing for set value.

I guess the hand looks fine, otherwise. I'm not sure about the flop call, but I guess its fine given your reads.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed. btw, look who is back. thought you were a working stiff.

Re: RESULTS.
 

I'd like to say first that it looks like a check/fold to me but I can see arguments otherwise.

Second of all won't one of two things happen?

1. We bet, he raises. Our hand is protected but we're drawing to two outs and need to fold.

2. We bet and everyone calls still getting odds to draw to gutshots, overcards, 5-out draws, etc. It seems we will be betting while drawing to two outs (or dead if JT and AA are out) far too often for this bet to be +EV.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

"this is precisely why we're disagreeing on this hand. you're taking a look at the turn action to justify flop actions. however, when you don't have the benefit of knowing in advance that the button will check behind on the turn, AND that the turn is not a scare card, you can't so easily make that flop judgement."

6. ya know, i knew when i typed that it was wrong and failed to edit it out after... "especially...." though I do still feel that your characterization was a bit narrow. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

7. As I would have played it, that is, as if the flop went bet raise, call, call or something simililar. I am out of there on the turn A unless I had odds on my 2 outer. If I am heads up on the turn, I think bet/fold may be correct.

Re: RESULTS.
 

if we bet and he raises we're almost certainly beat and can safely fold.

if we bet and everyone calls they may well have appropriate odds to call, but it's better than offering them infinite odds when we have the best hand, plus we may fold hands that have outs against use (a weak suited ace, say).

[edited to add: this whole conversation is predicated on the likelihood that, given the action thus far, the button can be put on AA, KK, or AKs (perhaps AKo), and is therefore more likely to have unimproved overs than not, and the other two opponents could have literally called that flop with anything, but now, on a safe turn, are likely to be behind us, with the caveat that UTG may have a weak Q that they're afraid to bet... if we're called in multiple places on the turn, the river plan obviously changes)

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

in which case you're investing a heckuva lot more to find out that you're behind, with your method, and opening yourself up to more bluffs, as your bet/call flop, donkbet turn might open up suspicion if your opponent is overly aggressive.

i think a much stronger argument could be made to check/call the flop, check/fold the turn... as i'm currently debating with istewart (although i still think a turn bet is better)

Re: RESULTS.
 

[ QUOTE ]
it's either bet/fold or check/fold. assuming villain caps preflop with AK, it's far more likely that he has that than a AKs or AKo. if he has JJ or TT, or they're out there, any combination of betting/calling at this point may force them out. but really, the point is to prevent AK from drawing for free. if you're raised, easy fold. if you're called, easy check on the river (and the only person that should reasonably have a Q after it's checked to you on the turn is, perhaps, UTG). it's a big pot, do everything you can to win it. here, that means not offering infinite odds on the turn to hands with outs against you. on the flop, with two cards to come and offering odds for everyone to call you with anything, there's no point.

i had originally been ok with the turn check, and i'm willing to hear argument that it's preferable, but the more i've analyzed this hand, the more clear it becomes that a turn bet is best.

[/ QUOTE ]

your last paragraph should stand as a monument. so many times threads get started and perpetuated as a "who's right and who's wrong pissing contest. I, for one, read posts and get a quick gut reaction on how to play, many times using a stream of consciousness type approach. It puts me to the test as to whether my gut and reading ability stands up when at the tables in real time. To be forced to confront your gut reaction with scientific scrutiny is quite instructive. We must be able to realize better plays when confronted with the logic of same. Thank you.

Re: 99 capped preflop, do you get aggressive somewhere?
 

[ QUOTE ]
in which case you're investing a heckuva lot more to find out that you're behind, with your method, and opening yourself up to more bluffs, as your bet/call flop, donkbet turn might open up suspicion if your opponent is overly aggressive.

i think a much stronger argument could be made to check/call the flop, check/fold the turn... as i'm currently debating with istewart (although i still think a turn bet is better)

[/ QUOTE ]

i take back the praise that i heaped upon you in my prior post (before reading this). [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

i will again consider your position and reasoning.

"Anyone else", he said as an aside to get certain posters more involved in this one; this, so as to get a broader opinion.

Re: RESULTS.
 

thank you, mo.... but you do realize i'm arguing for a turn bet (which you also advocate), but not the flop bet which you're focusing on, right? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: RESULTS.
 

[ QUOTE ]
thank you, mo.... but you do realize i'm arguing for a turn bet (which you also advocate), but not the flop bet which you're focusing on, right? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

clear as a bell, captain!