AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

I'm at a little over 3500 at 25/50 blinds. I've been fairly aggressive and people haven't really been playing back. However, this is the main villain's first hand at the table. UTG+1 and 2 have been here a while, are semi-loose but pretty passive.

Hero UTG (3615)
UTG+1 (1720)
UTG+2 (1735)
Villain CO (3210)

Preflop:
Hero raises to T150 with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Villain raises to T3210 (all-in)
Hero...?

Steve

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

Fold.
It looks like it may be JJ or something but you're doing well and I wouldn't risk it on what's probably a coinflip at best.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

If you think he has JJ, why fold? I'd be all in in a heartbeat if I put him on JJ, dead money in the pot...

Read dependent. would this player do this with AA or KK? If you answer "yes", or "I don't know", it may be a fold.

Otherwise push...

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

push

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

Mike, calling versus a JJ here is a terrible move. Still very early in the tourney, why would you want to take a coinflip? Theres only five hundred in there as dead money anyways. This is an easy fold, the only hands you'd want to call against are AJ or AQ. Stop thinking of it as a money game, the goal isnt to get in there with some tiny edge.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mike, calling versus a JJ here is a terrible move. Still very early in the tourney, why would you want to take a coinflip? Theres only five hundred in there as dead money anyways. This is an easy fold, the only hands you'd want to call against are AJ or AQ. Stop thinking of it as a money game, the goal isnt to get in there with some tiny edge.

[/ QUOTE ]yes it is

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

Only over-zealous beginners would go all-in on KK-AA.. and I mean just starting out.. I'd call

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

[ QUOTE ]
Mike, calling versus a JJ here is a terrible move. Still very early in the tourney, why would you want to take a coinflip? Theres only five hundred in there as dead money anyways. This is an easy fold, the only hands you'd want to call against are AJ or AQ. Stop thinking of it as a money game, the goal isnt to get in there with some tiny edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm taking a coin-flip any day.. that's how you win tournaments.. if you're going to fold AKs, why play to win?

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

you're supposed to push small edges early in tournaments, and try and accumulate a lot of chips....

I push here

RESULTS
 

Thanks for the replies. I really had trouble putting him on a hand (given there is no hand I would play that way). I ended up deciding it was probably AK or a mid pair. Also, I couldn't get the idea of some guy who's heard about this great thing called a squeeze play where you push over a raise and a couple calls...so I called. He had 66 and I won the flip. When I thought about it afterwards, it seemed a little crazy to put my entire stack at risk at that point. Glad to hear I'm not the only one who would!

Steve

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Mike, calling versus a JJ here is a terrible move. Still very early in the tourney, why would you want to take a coinflip? Theres only five hundred in there as dead money anyways. This is an easy fold, the only hands you'd want to call against are AJ or AQ. Stop thinking of it as a money game, the goal isnt to get in there with some tiny edge.

[/ QUOTE ]yes it is

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do you guys say this is a terrible move? I really can't see AA or KK doing this. Anything else, and you're money ahead....

Please elabourate.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

These situations give me fits as well. I know that it's probably +ev to call but the edge is so thin that I usually pass on it.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

i think its good push, my YES IT IS was response saying you shouldnt take small edges and i thnk you should

Re: RESULTS
 

I can't be the only one who wouldnt take a coinflip for their whole stack very early in a multitable. Every book out there on NL tourneys says to aviod this. Im not a straight-by-the-book player, but this should be pretty sensible advice. I don't think I'm out on a limb here either, as I've made 10 final tables and won 6 tournies.

You bust out so often on the cointosses, when people will hand you chips later on by pulling this move when you have aces or kings (or against this guy, probably queens as well). If you dont trust that your skill can earn you better than a 50/50 chance versus a bad player like this, then you have no business playing in tourneys.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't be the only one who wouldnt take a coinflip for their whole stack very early in a multitable. Every book out there on NL tourneys says to aviod this. Im not a straight-by-the-book player, but this should be pretty sensible advice. I don't think I'm out on a limb here either, as I've made 10 final tables and won 6 tournies.

You bust out so often on the cointosses, when people will hand you chips later on by pulling this move when you have aces or kings (or against this guy, probably queens as well). If you dont trust that your skill can earn you better than a 50/50 chance versus a bad player like this, then you have no business playing in tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ] LOL, please dont talk

Re: RESULTS
 

why? I think he raises a good point.

The edge is so thin, and the blinds are relatively low. Why not wait for a better spot? If he really is a donk, you will be way over 50/50 elsewhere.

Re: RESULTS
 

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

595,881,792 games 1.187 secs 502,006,564 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.6619 % 53.17% 05.49% { AKs }
Hand 2: 41.3381 % 35.85% 05.49% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
why? I think he raises a good point.

The edge is so thin, and the blinds are relatively low. Why not wait for a better spot? If he really is a donk, you will be way over 50/50 elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

He may have a valid point but he came off as a bit of a tool. Basically we should listen to him because he's won x tourneys and gone to y final tables...no one cares.

However, like I said, his point may be valid. But I question whether I will have (better) opportunities to get his stack. It's not like we're heads up, there are other people trying to get it too. If I win this hand, I'm in a dominant position, with over 7k at 25/50 blinds and having everyone at the table easily covered. Losing, in a word, sucks. Conclusion, I don't know what the better play is.

Steve

Re: RESULTS
 

You MUST call when you believe you're the favourite, EVERY time. You are going to take a bad beat every now and again, but by consistently getting your chips in as a favourite you will accumulate enough chips to absorb a percentage of bad beats.

IMO even WITHOUT the dead money this is a push (unless you know villain very well), and factoring the chips already in the pot, this becomes a no-brainer.

Re: RESULTS
 

Hey, I certainly don't think that Im one of the best players on 2+2, or even one of the better ones. I just meant that I'm not some total newb whose really out of line.

As for Toms post:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

636,977,088 games 1.171 secs 543,959,938 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.4808 % 40.38% 05.10% { 55+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 54.5192 % 49.42% 05.10% { AKs }

To me this is a little more realistic, but that's just quibbling over a small 4% EV difference. The real issue is whether or not it's worth it in a tournament to put your whole stack at risk with only small edges in your favor.

Mike, your line is 100% right in money games, I just feel that in tournies since you only have 1 shot and can't rebuy, protecting your chips becomes more important. For example, if you had the chance to put your money allin as a 51% favorite in the first hand of the tourney, would you take it? I feel that you have more equity waiting for a better spot. Obviously there is a line somewhere, and often somewhere later on in the tourney I will make this call. Usually only when The blinds force me to do so, though. It's tough to win more than 1-2 coinflips in any given tourney.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

This thread kinda sucks, mostly because of this:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 48.1191 % 42.57% 05.54% { AKs }
Hand 2: 51.8809 % 46.34% 05.54% { QQ-22, AKs, AKo }

Re: RESULTS
 

yea thats a better range, but i still think its a call

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't be the only one who wouldnt take a coinflip for their whole stack very early in a multitable. Every book out there on NL tourneys says to aviod this. Im not a straight-by-the-book player, but this should be pretty sensible advice. I don't think I'm out on a limb here either, as I've made 10 final tables and won 6 tournies.

You bust out so often on the cointosses, when people will hand you chips later on by pulling this move when you have aces or kings (or against this guy, probably queens as well). If you dont trust that your skill can earn you better than a 50/50 chance versus a bad player like this, then you have no business playing in tourneys.

[/ QUOTE ]

Winning coin-flips, even early, is essential to almost any tournament win.. You can't fear going broke to win a tourney

Re: RESULTS
 

I'm gunna have to side with Requin here. I can double my stack early on, many times without having to stick all my chips in the middle let alone on the bad side of a coin flip with a little dead money. I'd have to be pretty certain that the average opponent can outplay me at the flop before I loosen my early tournament allin calling requirements, or I'd have to be certain my opponent is the type to move with a weaker Ace. Unless the action is along the lines of a $20 SnG, I'm probably folding all but KK+ here unless I get a specific read to convince me that a weaker hand will be worth calling with.

[ QUOTE ]

Winning coin-flips, even early, is essential to almost any tournament win.


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe there's debate about this line amongst experts that I don't know about, but this goes completely against what I understand experts to recommend.

Re: RESULTS
 

Experts recommend avoiding coinflips in tourneys with deep stacks and long levels. Internet tournies (generally) dont satisfy either of these conditions.

As an example, did you listen to the exit interviews of the professionals after event number 1 of the WSOP?

They certainly weren't trying to avoid close decisions for their stack.


Its fine to proclaim you can sit and wait for the golden goose of pair vs underpair to come along, but before you know it, and the blinds are 50-100 and you are dribbling away with 1100 chips, i bet you would give your left eye to get into a AK vs underpair situation.

Why wait until later to hope to get the same situation you are facing now

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

I would fold. You do usually have to gamble sometimes to win a MTT, and I try to avoid being hesitant to go after small edges because of some skill advantage I may believe I have. However this is just too much.

You have too many chips, and the chances you're only a coinflip here are too high. You don't want to go out of your way to flip a coin early in the tournament. Sometimes it will come up where the blinds are too high, and there is too much money in the pot and thus you have no choice. In this spot you clearly do have a choice and I don't even know if there is even a small edge for you here math wise.

(Maybe a very tiny one, because there are some insane pepole out there that would simply decide to push with AJs here.)

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

I'm surprised at how manny people want to get all their money on a COINFLIIP. This is precisely what you want to avoid early in the tournamentn with a big stack. You accumulated a nice juicy stack and you can use it to gain chips in WAY less risky situations, stealing blinds, raising out players on flops, etc.

If you had 22 and raised on the button with 3k chips at 25/50 blinds, and sb folds and big blind flips his cards and goes all in with AKs and it folds back to you....do you want to call there? heh. it's a coinflip...!!

I think this is a terrible mentality to have: "well u gotta win a coinflip so might as well take one when it comes!" It is generally true that you have to win flips to win tournaments but that does not mean you use that as an excuse to risk your nice juicy bigstack early on in a tournament!!! Fold!

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
I can't be the only one who wouldnt take a coinflip for their whole stack very early in a multitable. Every book out there on NL tourneys says to aviod this.
.
.
You bust out so often on the cointosses, when people will hand you chips later on by pulling this move when you have aces or kings .

[/ QUOTE ]

Depending on structure, you HAVE to gamble early, playing it like a cash game.

I play in a weekly 150MTT, starting with T700 and 20 minute rounds. You don't have time to wait for the big ones. I've opened up my game a TON in this particular game (adjusting) and it's worked out QUITE well....but nowhere near the #s you've made....

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm at a little over 3500 at 25/50 blinds. I've been fairly aggressive and people haven't really been playing back. However, this is the main villain's first hand at the table. UTG+1 and 2 have been here a while, are semi-loose but pretty passive.

Hero UTG (3615)
UTG+1 (1720)
UTG+2 (1735)
Villain CO (3210)

Preflop:
Hero raises to T150 with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, Villain raises to T3210 (all-in)
Hero...?

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd put villian on Q/Q-A/A or another A/K. I think in this spot that you're likely behind a good majority of the time, and chopping the other portion of it. I'd give it up and wait for a better spot, you aren't pot-committed.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

I didn't read the rest of the replies, but isn't something to consider the fact that UTG+1 and UTG+2 (original callers) are holding some of your outs. Wouldn't they be calling an UTG raise with A-Q, A-J or something along those lines. The fact that they called, makes me more hesitant to get into a race where I'm fairly certain that some of my cards are being held by the 2 original pre-flop callers.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

Or you could say that as they limped.. they have small pocket pairs or suited connectors, therefore you can take potential cards out the deck, meaning you are even MORE likely to hit your A or your K

I'll stick to the unknown probabilities and make no assumptions.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

[ QUOTE ]
Or you could say that as they limped.. they have small pocket pairs or suited connectors, therefore you can take potential cards out the deck, meaning you are even MORE likely to hit your A or your K

I'll stick to the unknown probabilities and make no assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you could look at it that way, too.

I'm of the thought, though, that racing with over 70 big blinds is a risk that I'm not willing to take at this stage of the tournament.

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

Let me take a different angle.

You pushing might bring along UTG+1 or +2....and then I do not like our hand that much...

If I were sure noone else is calling, I would, but I do not have the certainty, so I fold.

arx

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

That early into the tournament, with my stack that large relative to the blind, I would have to fold here. Yes, you have to win some coinflips and get your stacks up, but at best you are probably behind to JJ or QQ, with a VERY off chance of AQ, KQ or a bluff. More likely you are against AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT; any of which would have you beat unless you catch. Save your pushing for when you need to.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Hey, I certainly don't think that Im one of the best players on 2+2, or even one of the better ones. I just meant that I'm not some total newb whose really out of line.

As for Toms post:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

636,977,088 games 1.171 secs 543,959,938 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 45.4808 % 40.38% 05.10% { 55+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 54.5192 % 49.42% 05.10% { AKs }

To me this is a little more realistic, but that's just quibbling over a small 4% EV difference. The real issue is whether or not it's worth it in a tournament to put your whole stack at risk with only small edges in your favor.

Mike, your line is 100% right in money games, I just feel that in tournies since you only have 1 shot and can't rebuy, protecting your chips becomes more important. For example, if you had the chance to put your money allin as a 51% favorite in the first hand of the tourney, would you take it? I feel that you have more equity waiting for a better spot. Obviously there is a line somewhere, and often somewhere later on in the tourney I will make this call. Usually only when The blinds force me to do so, though. It's tough to win more than 1-2 coinflips in any given tourney.

[/ QUOTE ]

First hand of the tourney I get a chance to double up when I'm a mathmatical favorite? I'm taking it 100% of the time.

So what happens here:

Almost half the time I free up the remainder of my day to go chew up cash games.

A little more than half the time I get a double stack to dominate the table and dramatically improve my chances of going deep and accumulating a monster stack.

Man I wish I had that chance EVERY tourney I play!

-Scott

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
First hand of the tourney I get a chance to double up when I'm a mathmatical favorite? I'm taking it 100% of the time.

So what happens here:

Almost half the time I free up the remainder of my day to go chew up cash games.

A little more than half the time I get a double stack to dominate the table and dramatically improve my chances of going deep and accumulating a monster stack.

Man I wish I had that chance EVERY tourney I play!


[/ QUOTE ]

Thread over.

Move along, nothing more to be said.

Regards,
Woodguy

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

One item that has been largely ignored in this thread:

Avoiding coin-flips early only applies if you are one of the better players in the field. Why would you want to gamble now if you can win chips slowly with superior skill?

On the other hand, if you feel like you need to gamble in order to win because you are not as skilled as your competition, take small edges for all your chips while understanding that you will be busting alot in such spots.

Other minor points that make this a fold IMHO - Villan pushed in to you rather than vice versa. You only have T150 invested, less than 10% of your stack.

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

595,881,792 games 1.187 secs 502,006,564 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 58.6619 % 53.17% 05.49% { AKs }
Hand 2: 41.3381 % 35.85% 05.49% { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, AJo+, KQo }

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this range is waaaay to wide. He reraised your raise all-in. Not knowing the specific villian I'd have to think AK, JJ-AA, probably QQ-AA actually

Re: RESULTS
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First hand of the tourney I get a chance to double up when I'm a mathmatical favorite? I'm taking it 100% of the time.

So what happens here:

Almost half the time I free up the remainder of my day to go chew up cash games.

A little more than half the time I get a double stack to dominate the table and dramatically improve my chances of going deep and accumulating a monster stack.

Man I wish I had that chance EVERY tourney I play!


[/ QUOTE ]

Thread over.

Move along, nothing more to be said.

Regards,
Woodguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: AK suited vs. ridiculous overbet...Super Monday
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you think he has JJ, why fold? I'd be all in in a heartbeat if I put him on JJ, dead money in the pot...

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I'm not understanding something crucial here. Your hand is a slight dog to JJ. Why would you call an all-in and risk crippling yourself knowing you are behind? Your edge in this hand depends on the times villain makes this move WITHOUT a pocket pair, does it not? I'm a newb, so I feel I must really be missing something about this comment....