3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Michael is the Button and knows that I am the BB.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, CO calls, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls.

Flop: (9.33 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (5.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

I'd bet the turn. He'd call the flop with any broadway gutshot, and may have peeled with a K hoping you'd give up with a PP? I don't know much about how he plays, but since he knows you are TAG you'd take a stab on the flop with any PP to protect your hand often, but he might give you credit if you continue the turn...

Surf

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Ah, you've reached river play and it's one street early!

I don't see a bet getting him to fold a better hand, and the only justification for that line is if you see yourself making additional profit if he raises 55. Too risky for me.

Against his range, how often are you ahead? More than 25%? If he's one of those 30/20 people, I go ahead and call down, but I'm a station me.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Bet. I can see him folding a king and if you check his QJ QT JT whatever can take it away from you. If he raises its a pretty easy fold.

-DeathDonkey

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Checkraise.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls. His range of hands is too wide to check/fold. Plus you put him in a tricky position if he has something like KT.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Checkraise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting but I think the problem is that he will usually take a free card with his gutshot draws, when he would have folded them. However if he will really fold an Ace it might be worthwhile.

An alternate idea would be to bet, and if called checkraise the river.

I don't know enough about MD's game to say whether either of these would be effective. I do know he will be aware of the possibility of a TAG playing 88-QQ in this manner, so it isn't like he will be instamucking AJ. In general I assume that people are not capable of folding hands and this has served me well, so I would not try something like this without an extraordinary read.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

I think the line that gets you into the least trouble is to checkcall the turn and checkfold the river, but even that is dangerous.

-Michael

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

I think you can bet the turn and c/f the river if called. I don't think michael raises you w/any hand your ahead of b/c the board is just too scary and most of his raising hands include an A or K

FWIW his hand range includes AA-77, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, KQ, KJ, QJ, QTs so your behind most of his hands.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]

FWIW his hand range includes AA-77, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, KQ, KJ, QJ, QTs so your behind most of his hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure what you meant by this but for a button iso-raise his hand range is way wider than that.

Surf

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

if you check and he bets, do you believe him?

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

check call check fold

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Quote:

FWIW his hand range includes AA-77, AK, AQ, AJ, ATs, KQ, KJ, QJ, QTs so your behind most of his hands.



I'm not sure what you meant by this but for a button iso-raise his hand range is way wider than that.


[/ QUOTE ]

He also called the flop; his pfr isnt the only info we have on him.

Am I the only one who would check fold this? I think he doesnt peel flop with a pp below JJ, and he usually checks behind with a broadway gutshot. He also might chekc behind with a king, thinking he wants to go to showdown cheaply and you might try for a c/r here. If he checks behind I check/call river.

Edit: I think it is really important to his range to know what kind of player co is.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

"Edit: I think it is really important to his range to know what kind of player co is."

I think the only information you need is that the CO open-limped.

-Michael

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

I understand what you mean, but there are 70/10/.2 players I would isolate here with like 40% of hands and there are 35/10/1.8 players who play well post but will still open limp, and I would isolate them with like 18% of hands.

i already know what he has
 

michael davis has aa, he is the greatest player ive seen on here, he slowplayed preflop, waiting for the turn pop
michael is a great player and i would fold everything against him except trips

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
check call check fold

[/ QUOTE ]
I think your giving him a free card that he'd love to have too often by checking the turn.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

How wide do you think his range of hands is? After he calls the flop bet, I can't see his hand range being much wider than this and I'd even narrow it down and say that he tosses pps like 99, 88, and 77 b/c they are behind every legit 3 betting hand.

For this reason I think you've either gotta bet and fold to a raise or check fold. Check calling doesn't make much sense b/c Michael isn't likely to bet a hand you are ahead of. Most hands you are ahead of he just takes a free card.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

He's welcome to draw to his 2-4 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card".

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Whoops, I just reread this, I said "reraise 55" meaning "random underpair". It just so happens 55 is a set. So change what I said to 66.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
He's welcome to draw to his 4-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 tainted outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's welcome to draw to his 0-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 barely tainted outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP, if we're going to be technical. Kx may raise for a free showdown. If you bet the turn you have the choice of folding to junk hand raises or paying off an extra bet to big hands. We're OOP, let's just see a showdown as cheap as possible.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's welcome to draw to his 0-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 barely tainted outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP, if we're going to be technical. Kx may raise for a free showdown. If you bet the turn you have the choice of folding to junk hand raises or paying off an extra bet to big hands. We're OOP, let's just see a showdown as cheap as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was that giving a free card to hands like QJ/QT is not as harmless as you make it out to be, and is worth probably .5BB on average to MD. Do you disagree (my math may be wrong)?

You "fixed" my post to say that MD may be drawing dead. Actually, if he's behind, he's never drawing to less than 4 outs.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
He's welcome to draw to his 0-13 outs if he wants to. If you're talking about draws that thin, it may wind up being the hero who winds up getting the "free card" to 2 barely tainted outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

The only line that hasn't been mentioned is bet, bet. If you decide to bet the turn (which IMO is best) and he calls, you're getting nearly 8:1 on a river bet that he'll fold Kx, which is very possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP, if we're going to be technical. Kx may raise for a free showdown. If you bet the turn you have the choice of folding to junk hand raises or paying off an extra bet to big hands. We're OOP, let's just see a showdown as cheap as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point was that giving a free card to hands like QJ/QT is not as harmless as you make it out to be, and is worth probably .5BB on average to MD. Do you disagree (my math may be wrong)?

You "fixed" my post to say that MD may be drawing dead. Actually, if he's behind, he's never drawing to less than 4 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'll give you the .5 BB (what I meant is that an underpair is only 2 outs, and maybe it's a reach, but he could have a couple of suited connectors that aren't drawing to gutshots).

But your preflop 3-bet is crazy-scary to him. His range is pretty wide, but the range you're representing isn't. Say, TT-AA, AQ and up? Maybe 99? Which means with half of his range that's ahead, he thinks he's behind and may want to see a cheap showdown also. So when he checks behind on the turn, or bets the turn and then takes a free showdown, you're saving 1BB. What's the probability of that? It's hard to tell, but I'm guessing it offsets the .5BB.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

One more thing (I know I write too much).

When he's behind, with, say, an underpair, he *knows* he's behind, but he also knows the board is scary, and that you're a TAG who avoids drawing dead, so he's not going to fold the flop with 66, he's going to take at least one opportunity to scare the crap out of you. By bluff-raising the turn.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
One more thing (I know I write too much).

When he's behind, with, say, an underpair, he *knows* he's behind, but he also knows the board is scary, and that you're a TAG who avoids drawing dead, so he's not going to fold the flop with 66, he's going to take at least one opportunity to scare the crap out of you. By bluff-raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

MD would have to call the flop with 66 specifically to float and raise the turn - This is a dangerous board for him and most of hero's hand range is ahead of 66 so his only hope is to fold a better hand, not the best plan. It is possible, but not that likely.

Surf

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think the line that gets you into the least trouble is to checkcall the turn and checkfold the river, but even that is dangerous.

-Michael

[/ QUOTE ]

Saves me trouble from having to type.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Could one of you advocating the check/call, check/fold line explain it to me? Won't he just check his draws and bet when he's ahead on the turn? And if he's aggro enough to bluff the turn with gutshots won't he sometimes bet the river too when he misses? I must be missing something.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Yeah, I don't get it either! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Surf

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Could one of you advocating the check/call, check/fold line explain it to me? Won't he just check his draws and bet when he's ahead on the turn? And if he's aggro enough to bluff the turn with gutshots won't he sometimes bet the river too when he misses? I must be missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is very, very unlikely to bet the river with a hand that jason_t is behind. He just won't do it with small pocket pairs or missed draws, IMO (there are some he will and this is what causes our problem of folding, but we have to).

As for the turn, we want him to continue to bluff or bet worse hands and we really don't want to get raised here, as we have showdown value against Michael Davis' range (that he won't bet on both the turn and river).

It's a very tricky situation, but it comes up fairly often at the $10/20 for me. We really want to get to showdown and this is the best way to do it.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
One more thing (I know I write too much).

When he's behind, with, say, an underpair, he *knows* he's behind, but he also knows the board is scary, and that you're a TAG who avoids drawing dead, so he's not going to fold the flop with 66, he's going to take at least one opportunity to scare the crap out of you. By bluff-raising the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

MD would have to call the flop with 66 specifically to float and raise the turn - This is a dangerous board for him and most of hero's hand range is ahead of 66 so his only hope is to fold a better hand, not the best plan. It is possible, but not that likely.

Surf

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? What about 77? Or 88-TT? Or suited connectors that missed? The reason why this isn't standard is it's so rare that we know our opponent so well. We know that this opponent doesn't want to go back to 2+2 and post how he drew to 2 outs.

Let's look at it from MD's perspective with all those hands. On the turn, you're risking 2 bets to win 6.6 (on the flop there were other equity reasons to call). And about half our opponents possible holdings don't have aces or kings. In fact, there's a small possibility that MD is ahead. I think floating the flop and raising the turn is correct here, if we assume jason_t has a good chance of TT-QQ or worse here.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Could one of you advocating the check/call, check/fold line explain it to me? Won't he just check his draws and bet when he's ahead on the turn? And if he's aggro enough to bluff the turn with gutshots won't he sometimes bet the river too when he misses? I must be missing something.

[/ QUOTE ]

He is very, very unlikely to bet the river with a hand that jason_t is behind. He just won't do it with small pocket pairs or missed draws, IMO (there are some he will and this is what causes our problem of folding, but we have to).

As for the turn, we want him to continue to bluff or bet worse hands and we really don't want to get raised here, as we have showdown value against Michael Davis' range (that he won't bet on both the turn and river).

It's a very tricky situation, but it comes up fairly often at the $10/20 for me. We really want to get to showdown and this is the best way to do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, my reasoning was similar, see my posts below. The reason why I didn't recommend folding the river is it seems a little bit like navigating of an obstacle course. If you think the probability of being ahead drops off at the river, fine. This is just one hand so I felt like we had to make a binary decision. In reality, I'd call some % of the time and make it into an optimal bluffing frequency thing.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks very much. It makes sense now.

Krishan

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bet. Fold to a raise and check/fold river if he calls.

[/ QUOTE ]

I never use this line. I don't really understand it. Are we betting because we hope he will fold? Do we hope he is on a draw and won't bet a busted draw on the river? It seems to be used when we are up against an unfavorable range. Can you talk about it a bit more?

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I would definitely be looking for a fold with a bet. As I see it the only hands he can have here are a pair of A's, a pair of K's, a gutshot with JT/QJ/QT, and also maybe a 5 with 65s/75s (not sure if he would iso raise with those). Oh and 55. I haven't run twodimes or anything, but my feeling is against those hands we are in good enough shape that we shouldn't simply check/fold (since we'll often be giving him free draws to up to 7 outs, and he may semibluff sometimes).

Check/calling also seems troublesome because we are still giving the free draws, and when he does bet it means we are drawing to 2 outs a very large percentage of the time.

That leaves betting. Betting will make him fold his gutshots and also put him in a difficult situation with his K's. I'm not sure if MD specifically would fold a K here but I know many tags would occasionally, especially a weaker one like K6s. Betting will also let us see a river most of the time as it is not very likely that he has better than one pair here so we will hardly ever face a raise. So we still get a shot at our two outer.

Of course if he calls a turn bet we are beat nearly 100% of the time, if not more, so there is no reason to put more money in barring improvement.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this a good line to take when the board goes 4-flush on the turn and you don't have a flush card? Say you have TP or something.

Krishan

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

Yes, that seems like it would be a good time for it. Sort of a Clarkmeister's theorem modified for the turn.

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, that seems like it would be a good time for it. Sort of a Clarkmeister's theorem modified for the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Everytime I bet the turn, and the bet the river and get raised I feel so completely molested. I will now check-fold those rivers.

Krishan

Re: 3/6 6m JJ against Michael Davis
 

This sucks, because I feel like a decent player is cablable of floating the flop and maybe raising the turn with a lot that you beat.

I probably bet the turn and then that's the last time I put money in the pot.