How to play this nut flush draw
 

In my local 1-2NL cash game I ran upon this hand. First I'll preface everything by saying that people in this game can play any two cards limping in and sometimes w/ raises.

anyway, I was in LP and limped w/ K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after several limpers. I know, bad play but I digress. BB raises to 10straight, all but one calls including me. 6way pot. typical preflop. So $62 in pot(sb folded on raise).

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Super tight player checks, but obviously hit. Loose player makes it $15 and 2 callers, then I call and then tight player raises $50. I put him on AQ as he would of raised $100 w/ QQ or AA. Original bettor folds to me, one person left to act behind me who is obviously folding. $173 in pot including $50 raise.

I have $183 left in front of me and raiser has 3-4hundred. What's the proper play.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

call, then check/call, or check/fold turn if the bet is too big to get the right pot odds

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
In my local 1-2NL cash game I ran upon this hand. First I'll preface everything by saying that people in this game can play any two cards limping in and sometimes w/ raises.

anyway, I was in LP and limped w/ K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] after several limpers. I know, bad play but I digress. BB raises to 10straight, all but one calls including me. 6way pot. typical preflop. So $62 in pot(sb folded on raise).

Flop comes A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Super tight player checks, but obviously hit. Loose player makes it $15 and 2 callers, then I call and then tight player raises $50. I put him on AQ as he would of raised $100 w/ QQ or AA. Original bettor folds to me, one person left to act behind me who is obviously folding. $173 in pot including $50 raise.

I have $183 left in front of me and raiser has 3-4hundred. What's the proper play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Either your pot calculations are incorrect or your description of the action is incorrect. If you will make the needed corrections the right decision will become more clear.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

SB 1 + BB 2, five limpers 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2, SB completes +1 total until now. 14. BB raises to 10. five people enter so 48 more. Until now 48 + 14 = 62.
On flop 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 50 = 62 +110 = 172... you are right, the pot has 172 instead of 173...

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
SB 1 + BB 2, five limpers 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2, SB completes +1 total until now. 14. BB raises to 10. five people enter so 48 more. Until now 48 + 14 = 62.
On flop 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 50 = 62 +110 = 172... you are right, the pot has 172 instead of 173...

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't trying to pick nits but you also wrote there was yet another player behind you left to act after the tight players raise although he was also likely to fold. This information does not make the numbers add up correctly which is why I asked for clarification.

EDITED BELOW:

Heck, you aren't even the initial poster!! Why am I listening to you? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

easy call

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
easy call

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the initial call is easy, I wanted to offer some correct advise on how to play the hand out. I'd probably smooth call and come out betting my $133 on the turn no matter what came unless the board paired. This at least gives the tight player a chance to fold and you at the very least have a redraw to the nut flush if he does call the turn bet. What I would not want to do is be put into the position of check calling my $133 if the turn is a brick.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
easy call

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree the initial call is easy, I wanted to offer some correct advise on how to play the hand out. I'd probably smooth call and come out betting my $133 on the turn no matter what came unless the board paired. This at least gives the tight player a chance to fold and you at the very least have a redraw to the nut flush if he does call the turn bet. What I would not want to do is be put into the position of check calling my $133 if the turn is a brick.

[/ QUOTE ]


I understand that the opponent is a tight player, but if you accurately read him for AQ, what hand could he fold to on the turn? Unless he thinks you're the type of player to smooth call PF with QQ or AA, he must realistically have the winning hand. The only exception would be if the turn brought a diamond, making your flush draw. The expressed odds here don't completely justify a call, but I think with the implied odds this is a fairly easy call. You might, however, be forced to throw away your hand on the turn if it is of no help, unless you get the right odds again.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

Actually, I think the expressed odds do justify this call.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
SB 1 + BB 2, five limpers 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2, SB completes +1 total until now. 14. BB raises to 10. five people enter so 48 more. Until now 48 + 14 = 62.
On flop 15 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 50 = 62 +110 = 172... you are right, the pot has 172 instead of 173...

[/ QUOTE ]
thanks Leo for the correction. 172 is correct as is your account of action.

to finish the account...

Well I made the donkey move. I went all in over the top. I percieved that because of his tightness that if I went all in on the flop he might of folded, perhaps 40% of the time expecting a set. He even berated himself saying that I had a set. After much deliberation he called.

I've been beating myself up for this move ever since I did it and since no one has offered this as a possibe move, I guess I'm right for beating myself up, lol.

thanks guys for the advice.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
So $62 in pot(sb folded on raise).

Loose player makes it $15 and 2 callers, then I call and then tight player raises $50. $173 in pot including $50 raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

I come up with 187 in the pot inclucing the raise. Missing the 15 you called prior to the raise (my guess) in your calculation.

JdT

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

Did he actually turn over that AQ you put him on?

If you really put him on AQ the only hands beating him were exactly AA, QQ and 88 which can only be dealt 18 ways. No matter what I would call that all in bet in his position holding top two pair. Even with the diamond draw on board he's a favorite to win with his two pair and the pot odds more than justify his call considering the small number of hands that were beating him at the time. It had to be fairly obvious that you weren't holding either QQ or AA since there were so many PF limpers and you did nothing to raise people off it. If he was holding AQ he knew you were beat or, at the worst, dead even.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

Cyber, yes he turned the AQ as I knew. I read this guy like a book, which is why i put the move on him. He won't invest any money in a pot unless he has a lock on it, and won't put over 50 in a pot unless he has the nutz. that's why i did the move. He made the right call, and i made a poor play. he probably wouldn't put me on QQ or AA very likely as that would be the case A or Q. he put me on 88 and was convinced i had it and asked to see the snowmen when he called.

it was the wrong move on my part for good reasons. If I was to do the play over again I'd call - check/fold(if no diamond) raise(if diamond) on the riv.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

I think your play was alright, but the other players in the hand sort of scare me. For the made hand guy, you sometimes have to watch out for the "I have a strong hand that I should probably fold, but can't get away from it" syndrome.

I think call, check/fold with insufficient pot odds is a better play here. I'm a little confused what happened to all 6 people on the flop. Is it now 3-way to you with one obvious folder that will make it HU? I'm also confused by whether the tight player check raised to 50 or added 50 more to make it 65 total. Very tight player is the same as tight player, right?

Calling 35 you have PO to take off a card, calling 50 you do not.

Implied odds are not very good with flush draws. They're often rather obvious. Maybe your opponent can't get away if you hit, but if he's super tight, I wouldn't count on it.

There are also redraw issues on the turn if you make it. He might call to beat you even without correct pot odds. He also might even bet first afraid of the 3 flush.

The result I see here is effective odds controlling the action. Based on my calculation, you have 538:183 (71:29) effective odds and you have 69:31 chance of winning in the end. Getting out of the hand now would create the most profitable/least unprofitable scenario.

I think the prudent play is call if it's 35 and fold if it's 50 to you, reevaluating PO on the turn.

Going beyond a strict mathematical perspective, you can make a play here for other reasons than PO, implied odds and effective odds if you think giving up a little here might increase your future expectation. Maybe an adjusted table image or implied tilt odds could swing a call or allin as the most profitable play?

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

Well, if your estimate that he would fold 40% of the time to your push was correct, then your play was actually a good move. By my calculations, the semibluff push is +EV all the way down to about a 15% chance that he folds. The only question is if your folding probablity estimate was correct, and that is of course highly read-dependent and impossible to accurately specify.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

benkahuna,
you are mostly correct. after flop w/ 6 people left it went:

SuperTightPlayer(STP)check - loose player $15bet, call, call, my call, fold, fold, then STP raises $50. fold, fold, then action to me.

Whitewolf: the odds on his fold might not of been 100% accurate, but I think it was fairly close. maybe 30-40% fold. If I had been running better that night he would of dropped it in a second, so that image might of affected me that night. He lays down KK if someone bets $10 into a $70 pot that flops w/ an A. He's tight.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

If you *knew he had AQ, and you still put him all in, no offense, but that is a dumb move...

Do you really expect your opponent to fold top 2 pair (with an ace), with no str8 or flush showing on the board?

I really dont see how this hand is even a hard decision... Call on the flop, you are getting great odds considering you are 3-1, and u called with garbage preflop facing a raise..

You got yourself into this situation preflop, you hit an *Ideal flop postflop... What is the problem with calling here?

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

Can someone comment on this?

1. Is this really only a good calling situation because the opponent is tight since the implied odds are weak? If there is a big raise - say all in - on a bad turn, then it's -EV to call:
The +EV of calling here is theoretically 1/3*223-50=24
And the -EV of calling an all-in on the turn with after no diamond comes up would be (8/44*489-133)*2/3=-30

2. Since calling 'represents' a drawing hand, and JT with the two-way gutshot straight draw is a solid drawing hand in this situation, would it be good play to semi-bluff on any 9 or King that comes up on the turn? (Or, for the more agressive bluffer the Jack or Ten as well?)

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

If you are always going to push in this situation, then you are getting odds to do so. You are getting 2.9:1 on all your chips, and it is 2:18:1 to hit (discounting Qd). The move is slightly better than break-even.

Comments?

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

[ QUOTE ]
If you are always going to push in this situation, then you are getting odds to do so. You are getting 2.9:1 on all your chips, and it is 2:18:1 to hit (discounting Qd). The move is slightly better than break-even.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand equity is .31. The pot is $173 with a $50 raise. Going all in will get you a call at 489 for $188 or a fold for $173, but the EV is only $151.59, so you loose $22 if your opponet alwasy calls. Your opponent needs to fold more than 12% of the time in order to make this profitable.

It's also a high variance play.

Re: How to play this nut flush draw
 

The problem with just calling on the flop in your situation is that on the turn he may just put you all-in. If you didn’t catch the flush, this will be a tough decision. This being the case, you should consider playing the hand all-in if you are considering just calling the $50 raise to begin with. An alternate play would be to raise him on the flop to see if you couldn’t possibly slow him down. Of course the problem with that is that you are pretty much all-in if you raise him to $100.

This is a classic problem that a lot of people get trapped in. They call some big bet/raise on the flop trying to catch a draw. They think that they have pot odds to make the call only to miss on the turn and get put all-in or stuck calling a humongous bet to see the river card. You should always consider the possibility of missing your draw on the turn and what the “aggressor” in the hand is going to do when that happens. This is why it’s not a bad play since you have position on him to try and come over the top to slow him down. By coming over the top and putting him on the defense you become the aggressor and have a better chance of getting the river card for free. But in your particular situation I don’t think that it would work because of you being so short stacked after you raise on the flop.

Also as you know playing hands like K4s in a raised pot will lead to some tough calls again in the future. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Brian Dennis
sevenduce@gmail.com