Loosey Goosey?
 

Okay, I haven't posted a hand anywhere for a long time. I have a hard time finding anything interesting in my play worth posting. But here's a hand that came up tonight.

A bit of background. I had been at the table for about 30 hands. The table was surprisingly tight with a lot of 2 and 3 way pots. On the orbit prior to this, when I was on the button, it was folded to me and I raised with 99. The BB then folded to my flop bet after he checked.

So, I'm on the button again. I should note that all of the BB's bets and raises are very fast.

PokerStars $3/$6 Limit Hold'em Ring (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, Hero raises, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Big blind raises, Hero raises, Big blind calls

Flop: (11.34 SB) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Big blind bets, Hero raises, Big blind raises, Hero calls

Turn: (9.17 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Big blind bets, Hero calls

River: (11.17 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Big blind bets, Hero calls

Final Pot: $65 ($2 rake)

Results not shown

I called after thinking for a few seconds about something we discussed on this forum about a week ago.

Thoughts? Did I play too loose on my later calls? How about the river call?

Regards,

T

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

Personally, I don't usually cap this pre-flop but I think there are a lot of valid reasons to do so, so I'm fine with it. With a gutshot, a 3-flush, two overcards and position I like your flop raise. When bb 3-bets then leads the turn I put him on AA, KK, QQ or AQ. This gives Hero a very poor equity of around 14% but the pot is offering 10:1 and I think Villain is stuck paying us off if an offsuit J hits so I like the call here.

This river call is what you're posting about I presume. In the heat of battle I'd probably look at the $60 in the pot and call as well, but on paper I think you can safely fold this hand. The only hand I can conceive of villain having that you can beat is AJ and I'd put the odds of that below the 12:1 you're getting - A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is the only hand I think I could play this way as the villain that doesn't have you beaten and I probably wouldn't have 3-bet with that hand either (though I might have lead after adding an OESD on the turn).

So in the end I can only really cast doubt on the river call, but 5 BB's sure seems like a lot to lose with Ace high . . . [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

Excellent insights, Pov. You have analyzed it a lot better than I did at the time. I'll follow up with results and my thought process tomorrow.

Regards,

T

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Excellent insights, Pov. You have analyzed it a lot better than I did at the time. I'll follow up with results and my thought process tomorrow.

Regards,

T

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It's a lot better than I would have analyzed it at the time too. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

How about the river call?

I rarely bluff-raise the river, but this looks like a good spot for it.

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

what hands do you beat on the river? i like the entire hand other than the river.

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

Thanks to Kurn &amp; Whiteshirt. I'll give up my thoughts a bit later along with the results. The bluff raise would have been interesting. I've done it but only against players I know well to be tight and able to make those "awesome" laydowns. And there are few of those left these days - though it probably works better online than live.

Regards,

T

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

tie AK
loose to any pocket pair - AQ AT A9
KQ KJ KT K9
any Q
JT J9 J8

you can beat AJ, weak A (A8 or lower)

Results
 

I felt the BB's preflop reraise was a "resteal" attempt, so I wasn't truly thinking he had a big hand at that point, thus my cap. I based that assessment on the fact that I "stole" earlier with my 99. I have no read on this player except that I raised his BB first in last round. So, my cap preflop may have been suspect, but I felt I was ahead.

Throughout the play of the hand he bet and raised very quickly - as if he had the "auto" button on. While I don't give a lot of credence to online tells, this one really felt like "strong means weak" to me. This was an extension of my read on his preflop resteal. I just didn't feel anything on the board justified his aggressive play.

When I got to the river is when I really had to think clearly about the hand. There are a lot of scare cards out there. He knows that, I'm thinking. I've shown aggression early on, so I obviously have something. If I were him, I might be inclined to throttle back and check, hoping for a bluff at the pot so I can check-raise. He bets out though.

There are 12 big bets in the pot. Could he be bluffing? I have to be pretty sure to fold. I hover on the fold button, and then I think about the post about making big laydowns preflop and loose calls on the river. I also thought about a bunch of posts from Clarkmeister about calling on the river with a bare ace.

Obviously, I called. I called because I was getting 12:1 and I don't think there's any way I can be that certain he's not bluffing.

He showed A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] for a missed flush.

Now, I'd like to know how Kurn came up with the idea of a bluff raise here. It would have been great.

Thanks all.

Regards,

T

Re: Results
 

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Now, I'd like to know how Kurn came up with the idea of a bluff raise here. It would have been great.


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The bluff raise is to fold him if he's holding AK for a split or a hand like AA or KK or A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] that might fold when the Q pairs on the board - i.e. a better hand that thinks it just got ruined. The bluff need only work a very small percentage of the time with such a big pot. Here a bluff raise would just have resulted in a missed draw folding (well maybe he would have frustration called it I guess, but that's not why it's a good idea).

That your raising of this player's bb was back-to-back is very significant IMO - it certainly made a big difference to his play from the previous hand you cite. Regardless, it just goes to show how a paper fold can be over-ruled profitably with a good read *when the pot is large*. Without this read though - despite the result, I still think folding is probably the right play most of the time with raising being just slightly behind.

edit: Of course your "30 hands" and other things inferred what you were getting at throughout your post, but when I was analyzing this last night I took the provided info to mean the opposite - this was an opponent who *didn't* put up a fight against a steal or when he missed.

Re: Results
 

as a player you have to be thinking long term. over the long run when you are in this position you will be beat on the river. thats why ppl do not bother to post the results. what matters is the information we had when we made the play. i think you try to analyze your players hand too much. just put him on a range of hands. he had A7, but he could have had all those other hands thatg beat you and normally will.

Re: Results
 

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as a player you have to be thinking long term. over the long run when you are in this position you will be beat on the river.


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Undeniably true - as far as it goes. We can't let long term outlooks cloud our tactical judgements. If we do that, we become weak-tight. If we start talking ourselves into knowing with 90% certitude that we are beat, we will throw away a lot of money.

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thats why ppl do not bother to post the results. what matters is the information we had when we made the play.


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Again, true.

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i think you try to analyze your players hand too much. just put him on a range of hands. he had A7, but he could have had all those other hands thatg beat you and normally will.


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Too much? Can one analyze an opponent's hand too much?

I did put him on a range of hands - throughout the hand. And I was certainly aware that he could have had a hand that beat me. But his betting patterns and past history made me suspicious.

At the river the main concern in my decision to call, is whether I can be certain he is not bluffing. I only have to pay 1 bet to win 12, so I have to be pretty darn certain. In the long term, if I fold to his bet, I will lose money.

Regards,

T

Re: Results
 

Based on your "strong is weak" read, I think the argument can be made for a bluff raise on the river.
If it was me (following hero's blind steal from before), his auto betting would have worked on me. I'd have put him on QJ, KQ.
Hard to say with out being there.

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]
Based on your "strong is weak" read, I think the argument can be made for a bluff raise on the river.


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Very true. I guess that shows my confidence in my read. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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If it was me (following hero's blind steal from before), his auto betting would have worked on me. I'd have put him on QJ, KQ.
Hard to say with out being there.

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I would have been surprised to see QJ but not KQ. I think QJ would have been too weak to reraise preflop, but I had no knowledge of this player so it was not outside the realm of possibility.

Thanks,

T

Re: Results
 

[ QUOTE ]

I would have been surprised to see QJ but not KQ. I think QJ would have been too weak to reraise preflop, but I had no knowledge of this player so it was not outside the realm of possibility.

T

[/ QUOTE ]
People do stranger things. Especially if they think you're trying to steal.(twice)

Re: Loosey Goosey?
 

I'm seeing monsters with the tight table and the flop reraise. I don't believe an Ace or King do me any good, so I'm left with a gutshot and a 3 flush. I MIGHT call the flop reraise, but I'm folding to a turn bet.