Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

Interesting Stuff

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I think he's very wrong on this. He makes the assumption that people are trying to improve. Many really aren't.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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I think he's very wrong on this. He makes the assumption that people are trying to improve. Many really aren't.

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yes, those are the ones he says will just die off, and not play...the ones who try and improve will be feasting on each other, and the weak among them will not be able to mate etc.


i have been fretting over this myself, when will this end? is it here to stay, forever? when will all the new money stop coming in?


i for one am hoping that poker is a big hit in China [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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i for one am hoping that poker is a big hit in China [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Haha, yeah that was from my post yesterday.

This is a big worry to me as well. Just how good are we? I can certainly see the interest dying down in a few years, but who knows? Poker will always be around, but we may just end up with a lot of "good" players and a lot less fish - which is the opposite of today. Keeps me awake at night.

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Yeah, it really would be a crime if we were all forced to become productive parts of society that contribute something with real jobs.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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Yeah, it really would be a crime if we were all forced to become productive parts of society that contribute something with real jobs.

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hehe indeed

i think i probably fall somewhat into the complacency category, so i'm trying to counteract that by saving mad amounts of money that i'll use to take over the world when poker dies off



[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I think overall he is right but his outlook is a bit too gloomy.

It will take some time before the games toughen up but they surely will but not as tough as he might think. If they toughen up there is a chance that rake will go down if the current high rake/ high bonus frequency scheme is ineffective to attract enough fish for mediocre/good players.

I also think that a lot of the better college poker players will drop out or at least noticably decrease playing time when they take up a job.

I do not think that China will be the answer unless you are comfortable to play at a site with Chinese chat and Chinese charcters.

OTH, Poker has yet to hit continental Europe sans Scandinavia. I see much more medium term growth there than in Asia. I am a bit puzzled that it has not happened yet. Maybe English is an entry barrier?

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

Have not read the article. But my opinion is one based purely on gambling in general. Poker to most, is just another form of gambling. Some like blackjack, some like roulette, some like craps, whatever. Casinos have been around a long time. In fact, I'm sure many of us have local Indian casinos now. The act or desire to gamble will never go away. In the end, it just comes down to game of choice.

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The trick is to just become good enough at poker so that even when the competition gets much tougher you will still have a huge edge. I mean if you are making $300 per hour now, do you really think that in 5 years you cant even make close to $100?

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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Have not read the article. But my opinion is one based purely on gambling in general. Poker to most, is just another form of gambling. Some like blackjack, some like roulette, some like craps, whatever. Casinos have been around a long time. In fact, I'm sure many of us have local Indian casinos now. The act or desire to gamble will never go away. In the end, it just comes down to game of choice.

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Yep. A portion of the bad players will not leave the game, just as people continually come back to slot machines, even when they know they can't win long term. For some players the action is what makes it fun and that is enough.

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I also wanted to mention that he overestimates the ability to learn. Sure, there's a ton of poker advice out there, but how much of it is good? Just drop by the cardplayer forum and see some of the poker "advice" that is getting spewed out there. I looked at it a couple of weeks ago and there was a two page thread on whether freeroll tournaments were harder than real money touranaments (with most of the players saying that freerolls were harder).

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I don't see chinese characters as an issue. Look at all the websites out there now where you can choose your language.

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if the implication is that it'll be like the "old days" again, and that poker rooms are going to close.... i say no freakin' way. live poker will remain more popular than it's been in the past as long as they show tournaments on TV. and they will continue to show the WSOP and other events on TV as long as people continue to show an interest in poker.

the only thing I can see seriously damaging the massiveness of internet poker is a sudden government interest in either taxing (or shutting down) all the money changing hands that people might not be claiming.

remember the wise words of p.t. barnum.... "there's a sucker born every minute."

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There is truth to this but internet gambling IMO is not as much fun as spending time in a live casino and therefore does not have the same staying power. Sure hope I'm wrong though.

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There is truth to this but internet gambling IMO is not as much fun as spending time in a live casino and therefore does not have the same staying power. Sure hope I'm wrong though.

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But it's way more accesible. That counters a lot of the "fun" part for most people.

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Yeah, it really would be a crime if we were all forced to become productive parts of society that contribute something with real jobs.

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I'm a consumer. Me buying things contributes to society.

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Yeah, it really would be a crime if we were all forced to become productive parts of society that contribute something with real jobs.

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I'm a consumer. Me buying things contributes to society.

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The people that you took the money from would've also.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

obviously he's right. In june i played 600 sngs averaging 35% Roi, including 150 50s near the end of the month with 40% Roi. In august i had 500 with about a 15% ROI total. obviously they are getting much harder!!!!!

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obviously he's right. In june i played 600 sngs averaging 35% Roi, including 150 50s near the end of the month with 40% Roi. In august i had 500 with about a 15% ROI total. obviously they are getting much harder!!!!!

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You clearly have a large enough sample to represent the millions of SnGs played on PP in that time period.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

I only skimmed the article, but I think he is being way too pessimistic here. Casino's are being build as fast as politicians can be bought off to aprove them. Those suckers have neither learned nor dwindled.

Also, the real gloom he is predicting is not for the say 2 or 3% or the top players, who can adapt and learn better than most. I would not say I am a great poker player at this point, but I do rate my ability to learn and improve pretty highly. I am not too worried about the games getting too tough, because, and this is a point I have made often as have others, the qualities needed to beat the tough games are also the qualities that can typically make you more money in the real world.

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obviously he's right. In june i played 600 sngs averaging 35% Roi, including 150 50s near the end of the month with 40% Roi. In august i had 500 with about a 15% ROI total. obviously they are getting much harder!!!!!

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You clearly have a large enough sample to represent the millions of SnGs played on PP in that time period.

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Thats what I thought too, im glad you agree with me.

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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Have not read the article. But my opinion is one based purely on gambling in general. Poker to most, is just another form of gambling. Some like blackjack, some like roulette, some like craps, whatever. Casinos have been around a long time. In fact, I'm sure many of us have local Indian casinos now. The act or desire to gamble will never go away. In the end, it just comes down to game of choice.

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winner ^

I completely agree.

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Taken from the article:

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We’re seeing similar drivel in poker. Some people are learning absurd strategies from heavily edited TV shows. A few tournament stars are very young and have extremely unorthodox styles.

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Is he talking about us pushing all-in with junk? Im not sure if they do this on TV because I don't have cable, but I'm pretty sure are pushbotting is looked at as kinda retarded by some of the other players; at the low stakes games at least.

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And just to add, casual players that do have productive jobs are only a paycheck away from replenishing their BR, so fears of the fish pool dying off are overrated.

Society is full of -EV bets (slot machines, lotteries, etc...) and I would gander a vast majority of the players are repeat customers who don't give a rat's ass about learning, or else they wouldn't be playing those games.

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i for one am hoping that poker is a big hit in China [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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Be careful what you wish for.

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There are always going to be a few fish in a poker ocean.

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Of course, gambling and poker arent going anywhere. People really have to stop using that as some sort of answer to the 'when will the party end' question. People dont necessarily spend a higher % of their income on gambling now than they did 5 years ago, they just play poker rather than blackjack.

If you dont think poker is a fad, you are kidding yourself. The fact that it existed prefad, and will exist post fad in no way discount the fact that it is currently a short term pop culture phenomenon. There is a very good chance that in 1-5-10yrs things will be markedly different. Just think of your own personal experience. How many friendly gatherings now end up turning into a poker game now vs 4 years ago. Why is it that this attitude will never change?

Will the fish all die? No, but their will be less of them.

For people to wonder about China and other Europe is a little comical. Why hasnt poker spread? Why would it? Why hasnt baseball spread to those nations? American football? Why hasnt Soccer spread to the US?

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I think a common sense argument supports his claim to some degree:

Can you think of any way at all that is easier to make money than to play poker right now? It's absurdly easy. And that means there's a market inefficiency right now that will correct itself. How quickly, it's hard to say. But you can't have it be so simple as to read a few books and a forum for an hour or two a day and become a six-figure earner within a year like is possible in poker right now. There's too many smart people in this world who will capitalize on this and drive the market towards efficiency. It's only a matter of time.

When making money at poker is comparably difficult to making money in other ways, then it may be stable for longer term. But we're not anywhere close to that point yet. It's too easy right now.

eastbay

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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I think a common sense argument supports his claim to some degree:

Can you think of any way at all that is easier to make money than to play poker right now? It's absurdly easy. And that means there's a market inefficiency right now that will correct itself. How quickly, it's hard to say. But you can't have it be so simple as to read a few books and a forum for an hour or two a day and become a six-figure earner within a year like is possible in poker right now. There's too many smart people in this world who will capitalize on this and drive the market towards efficiency. It's only a matter of time.

When making money at poker is comparably difficult to making money in other ways, then it may be stable for longer term. But we're not anywhere close to that point yet. It's too easy right now.

eastbay

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I like this argument. However, there are definitely market pressures against this. Many people don't realize that poker can be profitable; many consider it to be an immoral profession.

Those two factors will likely decay with time; what won't decay with time is the fear of variance. Professional poker players are likely people who tend to be less averse to variance than most (although we certainly still hate negative variance). Even this group would likely take a slight hit to EV to lower variance (and we often do).

There are other professions that are very easy and pay way. You can make pretty good money being a garbage man, working for a cigarette company or a defense contractor, dealing drugs, etc. All of these professions pay great and are easy to get into, but they have social and practical downsides that prevent them from becoming more competetive.

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Slight Counterpoint

It is fairly easy for an intelligent person who is willing to do a little work to make a 6 figure income in many many fields. Currently only a very small percentage of poker players can do this. The difference between poker and most other fields is that it takes much less time to get there, if you are capable of it. That is because it is totally a function of your ability, not your connections or your resume.

There are a lot more smart people, but there are also a lot more not so smart people. If everyone on earth played poker, the games would be easy.

I think that while the numbers of players are growing the game will be easy because the number of sharks will lag, and vice versa when the number of players shrinks, so I basically agree despite the above quibbling.

Still, is the number of players growing or shrinking? Remember the Chinese. Gambling is popular. Incomes are rising. Internet is spreading.

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Obviously pokers popularity will fade, but it will be a gradual fade and as the level of play slowly rises good players should be able to adjust thier play accordingly and still win on a consistent basis. The writer is being too pessimistic and he is talking as if this change will be overnight.

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I like this argument. However, there are definitely market pressures against this. Many people don't realize that poker can be profitable; many consider it to be an immoral profession.


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The online porn market had a similar arc of obscene easy profits followed by saturation and finally intense competition. I think more people would steer away from being a pornographer than from playing poker.

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Those two factors will likely decay with time; what won't decay with time is the fear of variance.


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I don't think this is particularly significant either. Business in general is high variance with high risk of ruin. Yet people start restaurants all the time, everywhere, despite the 90% ruin rate (or whatever.)

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There are other professions that are very easy and pay way. You can make pretty good money being a garbage man, working for a cigarette company or a defense contractor, dealing drugs, etc. All of these professions pay great and are easy to get into, but they have social and practical downsides that prevent them from becoming more competetive.

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Being a garbage man sucks ass, and I'm pretty sure it doesn't pay $120k range. I'm sure the competition for high paying cig company jobs is significant, and having worked at a defense contractor, I can tell you that this is a very competitive career path, where you can make $100k but will have to fight tooth and nail and work long, hard hours at it, likely in a small cubicle doing mind numbingly boring things for most of the day.

I understand your points, but I still think given those factors, it's still far out of equilibrium right now.

eastbay

Re: Card Player Article: The End Is Coming
 

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There are other professions that are very easy and pay way. You can make pretty good money being a garbage man, working for a cigarette company or a defense contractor, dealing drugs, etc. All of these professions pay great and are easy to get into, but they have social and practical downsides that prevent them from becoming more competetive.

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I guess I'm just being argumentative this morning.

Some garbage men make good money some make very little. The differences are because of politics and unions which disrupt competition.

Do cigarette companies pay well?

I don't have a large sample, but the programmer I know who worked for a defense contractor said they paid poorly compared to the same job in other industries.

Drug dealing is dangerous and for the most part is not lucrative. In Freakonomics the author writes a bit about gangs and finds by far the largest group of them making like $3.30/hr selling drugs. Even guys fairly high up weren't making 8-tabling the $55s kind of money.

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You youngsters might be surprised how many jobs seem like they would be productive but turn out to be not productive, counter-productive or downright harmful.

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You youngsters might be surprised how many jobs seem like they would be productive but turn out to be not productive, counter-productive or downright harmful.

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My (cynical, but earnest) thoughts exactly.

eastbay

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Taken from the article:

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We’re seeing similar drivel in poker. Some people are learning absurd strategies from heavily edited TV shows. A few tournament stars are very young and have extremely unorthodox styles.

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Is he talking about us pushing all-in with junk? Im not sure if they do this on TV because I don't have cable, but I'm pretty sure are pushbotting is looked at as kinda retarded by some of the other players; at the low stakes games at least.

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Danny Nguyen says hi!

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Slight Counterpoint

It is fairly easy for an intelligent person who is willing to do a little work to make a 6 figure income in many many fields.

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This is so wrong, it borders on lunacy.

Salaried income has more to do with:
connections, politics, upbringing, education, etc, etc.

than it does with intelligence. Most jobs are salary rather than performance driven. If I ranked the people I know based on their income, there would be a slight correlation to intelligence, but it would be far from the driving factor.

Also, even for those of us fortunate enough to have been given opportunities to go to good schools, learn social skills, etc. It will still take some time post grad to earn 6 figures.

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When making money at poker is comparably difficult to making money in other ways, then it may be stable for longer term. But we're not anywhere close to that point yet. It's too easy right now.


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it's a pyramid scheme, to use an old analogy. it's not going to "stabalize" until there is no more market for new poker players. also keep in mind that the vast majority of people cannot become 6-figure earners within a year (including myself, unfortunately). many will never become profitable at all because they are, frankly, stupid.

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Must be a Berkeley/East Bay thing (or old and cynical thing). Break down the logical elements of a lot of jobs, and they aren't very noble/helpful to society, in fact some are even downright (net) detrimental. IMO/IME.

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No one ever went broke underestimating the American public. As Barry Greenstein said, there will always be some loses coming back, because they've won before and believe they can do it again. But they aren't willing to study or (heaven's forbid) read to get better. Haven't we all seen certain players suck for way too long of a time? And somehow or antother, they still get more money to come back.