K9s on the button
 

Hi all...I've been making more hand posts than hand responses lately. I apologize for that, but this is a hand that I played last night that could generate some interesting discussion (I think).

Party 3/6. No reads that I can think of as of now (don't have any notes with me).

Four limpers to me on the button and I call with the Ks9s. The SB raises, BB and limpers call and I call. 7 to the flop.

Kh Qd 8s. SB bets, BB folds, and UTG+1 raises next up. It's folded to me. I call, as does the SB.

Turn is 2s. SB checks, UTG+1 bets, I raise.

Comments on flop and turn appreciated. Thanks.

-McGee

Re: K9s on the button
 

I will leave the flop to others. I hate folding but your not closing the action and would guess your drawing pretty slim. I do hate the turn raise if you think your folding a better hand here your crazy.

Re: K9s on the button
 

Sure. The flop is a tough one to fold with so much money in the middle. When SB just calls and UTG bets again and you picked up the flush draw raising seems pretty standard to me.

Re: K9s on the button
 

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Sure. The flop is a tough one to fold with so much money in the middle. When SB just calls and UTG bets again and you picked up the flush draw raising seems pretty standard to me.

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Why?

Re: K9s on the button
 

Because you have added more outs and your top pair could still be good as the BB could be on an open ended draw. Myself I would just call but...

Re: K9s on the button
 

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When SB just calls and UTG bets again and you picked up the flush draw raising seems pretty standard to me.

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I don't agree with this but maybe I'm missing something.

I think we're almost certainly behind to UTG+1, who raised into the whole field and then bet out the turn.

We have a ton of outs but no fold equity, and possibly might not even get a free showdown.

I'd like to just call. But my ears are still open.

Re: K9s on the button
 

Aces:

I am probably going against the grain here, but I would probably fold this flop, barring some kind of read on UTG+1 & sb. I just think you are behind almost all of the time, and when you are behind, you likely have very few outs. And, you have to be afraid of a reraise behind you. I don't think you can continue here unless you think that there is a relatively decent (I don't know how to quantify it) chance that you are ahead. And if you think there is a decent chance, is a flop 3 bet better than that flat call?

I do think that the turn raise is consistent with your flop play (that you think you are ahead here sometimes) and I think I like it--Large pot, there are some hands that sb could hold that you would like him to fold (AJs, ATs, etc), plenty of outs even when you are behind...etc.

--Rico

Re: K9s on the button
 

Does the turn raise really accomplish anything? What hand is the small blind going to fold that beats us? I think there is little chance you are ahead, and there isn't any reason to pay 2BBs to draw to the flush.

Re: K9s on the button
 

Depending on table reads I am likely folding this flop too. I think the turn raise sucks.

Re: K9s on the button
 

Okay everyone needs to go read A turn play by Nate Meyvis in the September magazine. It is very much like this hand.I still don't think I am convinced but go read it.

Re: K9s on the button
 

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is a flop 3 bet better than that flat call?


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I am glad you brought this up. I was afraid that the flop decision would get lost since I continued on to the turn, but I hate "street by street" posts. I hope that your mention of a possible three-bet will spark some more discussion. There are quite a few advantages to one, I think.

-McGee

Re: K9s on the button
 

You're reading a lot into UTG+1's flop raise acting right after SB IMO. This could very well be another weak K or even a Q and sometimes a draw. Depending on the river I very well may take a free showdown if given the opportunity but I think you're reading a lot more than you should into one flop raise. Also, as Rico pointed out there are some hands SB may hold that we really like to fold out here.

Re: K9s on the button
 

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You're reading a lot into UTG+1's flop raise acting right after SB IMO. This could very well be another weak K or even a Q and sometimes a draw. Depending on the river I very well may take a free showdown if given the opportunity but I think you're reading a lot more than you should into one flop raise. Also, as Rico pointed out there are some hands SB may hold that we really like to fold out here.

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Your probably correct UTG+1 flop raise shouldn't have us seeing monsters we probably have some fold equity and are going to put two more BB's into this pot anyway. The down side to this is getting three bet by either player. What would your river play be UI? I guess the question becomes how often do we get three bet vs get a free show down.

Re: K9s on the button
 

If you get 3-bet you can fold the river unimproved without hesitation IMO. Worse hands arean't 3-betting here. I don't think we get 3-bet often here.

Re: K9s on the button
 

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You're reading a lot into UTG+1's flop raise acting right after SB IMO. This could very well be another weak K or even a Q and sometimes a draw. Depending on the river I very well may take a free showdown if given the opportunity but I think you're reading a lot more than you should into one flop raise. Also, as Rico pointed out there are some hands SB may hold that we really like to fold out here.

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Why don't we 3-bet this flop then?

Re: K9s on the button
 

It's an option. I don't think it's terrible. I'd consider all 3 options on the flop actually. But we have a much stronger hand on the turn than on the flop.

Re: K9s on the button
 

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is a flop 3 bet better than that flat call?


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I am glad you brought this up. I was afraid that the flop decision would get lost since I continued on to the turn, but I hate "street by street" posts. I hope that your mention of a possible three-bet will spark some more discussion. There are quite a few advantages to one, I think.

-McGee

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3-betting the flop is a viable option in my opinion. The fact that sb is leading this flop is no suprise as he was the preflop raiser and still has a very wide range of holdings that don't include a K. Lets say UTG1 knows this and thus his flop raising standards are now increased and he could very well be raising a Q, a straight draw, or even a worse K than you. This pot is large and worth fighting for so by 3-betting you might get SB to fold gutshots and single Aces incorrectly and increase your chances of winning unimproved.

While I just outlined an argument for it, I'm not too convinced a 3-bet is best, but I think it does have some merit and would be interested in other's opinions.

Re: K9s on the button
 

when a pot gets this big you need to make plays to maximize your chance of winning it. you guys know this. also, increase your expectation on at worst a 4-1(assuming you need the flush to win)shot if they are calling anyway isn't so bad either.

Re: K9s on the button
 

I like the flop call and turn raise. If PFR has a hand that hasn't hit like AJs or ATs, or even AQ this raise cuts his odds significantly. If you call he will get 12:1, but if you raise he gets 6.5:1 and can no longer call profitably with the hands mentioned. You are not unlikely to be behind UTG+1, but you aren't certain to be and you have plenty of outs to pull ahead of even a worst case hand like KQ. Folding SB just has too many advantages when many hands in his range can call profitably when you don't raise.

The flop and the turn.
 

I considered all three options. Without the backdoor flush, this could very well be a fold. But I think I have too much hand to not continue here.

Raising has merit. I'll likely be able to see a showdown for one SB less, if I want it. Or, if I'm convinced I'm behind, I'll get to see two cards to improve for just an extra small bet -- well worth it.

The problem with raising the flop, though, is that I forfeit my opportunity to face the SB with a double big bet on the turn. If I raise the flop, I'm laying him 20:2, which isn't enough to get gutshots to fold. If I wait until the turn to raise, I can give him something like 13:2. That'll fold gutshots, and while I anticipate many will disagree, I think our (UTG+1 and mine) combined aggression is enough to get the SB to fold AK some portion of the time. That's a huge coup for me.

This specific turn card is a perfect one to raise, because getting 3 bet isn't a disaster since I have those flush outs.

Thanks for the replies so far. Additional thoughts appreciated, as always.

-McGee

Re: K9s on the button
 

I think the call on the flop is ok, the backdoor flush gives you just enough outs.

I like the raise on the turn if the purpose is to get a free showdown.

Re: K9s on the button
 

depends on how bad SB is. you are almost certainly behind on the flop and turn, but folding is out of the question. i would think that the chance of folding sb in this big pot is decent..i like it.

the flop is close, but you have just enough outs to cc.

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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This specific turn card is a perfect one to raise, because getting 3 bet isn't a disaster since I have those flush outs.


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Yeah, getting 3-bet isn't a disaster, but I would argue this from a different standpoint.

WIthout the flush outs, we could probably fold to the 3-bet against reasonable opponents. Whereas here, we are forced to call it.

This card does increase our hand strength, but it doesn't strengthen our hand RIGHT NOW. i.e. if we weren't ahead on the flop, we aren't ahead right now either. We just have more outs (albeit a ton of them, now).

If we get 3-bet, we have to call it, and then fold the river UI I guess? Whereas if we just call, we can call the river too, thus costing 2BB when we're behind, while the other line costs us 3.

Personally I'd prefer to 3-bet the flop, bet the turn, call a c/r and fold the river UI, or call a donkbet if no c/r, or take a free showdown if we get it. I think.

I dunno I suck at poker.

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

peterchi

Remember that we're not heads up. We've got the SB to worry about, too.

-McGee

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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peterchi

Remember that we're not heads up. We've got the SB to worry about, too.

-McGee

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Sure, I know. Which part of my line/argument seems to neglect him?

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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peterchi

Remember that we're not heads up. We've got the SB to worry about, too.

-McGee

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Yes and folding the SB is worth opening ourselves up to a three bet here. Another question what is our river play if we do not improve and get donked?

Nice post Aces.

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

Aces:

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I considered all three options. Without the backdoor flush, this could very well be a fold. But I think I have too much hand to not continue here.

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I think continuing really hinges on how often we figure to be ahead in this spot...which admittedly doesn't have to be all that often in this size pot. And it is hard to determine this with no reads. If we are behind, we are likely behind in a very bad way with minimal outs ....certainly not enough to continue on, not closing the action, even getting 17:2.

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The problem with raising the flop, though, is that I forfeit my opportunity to face the SB with a double big bet on the turn. If I raise the flop, I'm laying him 20:2, which isn't enough to get gutshots to fold. If I wait until the turn to raise, I can give him something like 13:2. That'll fold gutshots, and while I anticipate many will disagree, I think our (UTG+1 and mine) combined aggression is enough to get the SB to fold AK some portion of the time. That's a huge coup for me.


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So when you flat called the flop, were you planning on popping any reasonable turn (as long as the sb doesn't 3-bet the flop) and the picked up spade draw was a bonus?

--Rico

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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Which part of my line/argument seems to neglect him?

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Well, all of it, frankly. At no point do you seem concerned with trying to knock him out. A double bet on the flop isn't going to do it with 20 SB already in there, and a single bet on the turn won't, either.

-McGee

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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Another question what is our river play if we do not improve and get donked?


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It depends on the river card, of course, but I think a fold is in order, although I end up calling those bets a lot more than I'd like to.

-McGee

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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Yes and folding the SB is worth opening ourselves up to a three bet here.

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A friend and I debated this point last night. He argued that SB couldn't possibly be holding anything that it would benefit us for him to fold, except JT which isn't going anywhere ever. Other Kings aren't folding either, most likely.

I argued that it would be nice to fold out even hands like AQ or gutshots.

I ran some examples through a poker odds calculator, and it seems as though my friend was right. I couldn't find any hands where it would actually benefit us to have them fold.

Can someone support or refute this?

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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So when you flat called the flop, were you planning on popping any reasonable turn (as long as the sb doesn't 3-bet the flop) and the picked up spade draw was a bonus?


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I'm not sure what was going through my head at the time since it was a few days ago, but as of this moment, I'm convinced that doing so would be the correct play.

-McGee

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

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Which part of my line/argument seems to neglect him?

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Well, all of it, frankly. At no point do you seem concerned with trying to knock him out. A double bet on the flop isn't going to do it with 20 SB already in there, and a single bet on the turn won't, either.

-McGee

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I'm pretty sure that if he has anything worth knocking out, he's not going anywhere.

I'd love to be proven wrong though.

Re: The flop and the turn.
 

peter:

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A friend and I debated this point last night. He argued that SB couldn't possibly be holding anything that it would benefit us for him to fold, except JT which isn't going anywhere ever. Other Kings aren't folding either, most likely.

I argued that it would be nice to fold out even hands like AQ or gutshots.

I ran some examples through a poker odds calculator, and it seems as though my friend was right. I couldn't find any hands where it would actually benefit us to have them fold.

Can someone support or refute this?

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I don't know if I can refute this, but I can say that hands like KJs or KTs are going to find it hard to continue facing 2 cold on the turn.

Also, if we just call the turn, the sb is getting 12:1, so hands like AJs, ATs, AQ, etc. are getting the right price to continue.....not so if we raise. Granted, with our flush draw, our opponent is not getting much of an overlay at all to call at 12:1, but figure in the chance that he makes a bad fold with the best hand, and raising looks better than calling.

--Rico

Re: K9s on the button
 

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Four limpers to me on the button and I call with the Ks9s

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Raise preflop.

Re: K9s on the button
 

I would raise preflop and probably 3-bet the flop. I'm not folding the flop but I love the idea of 3-betting when it will freeze the action, and it often will here. If it doesn't freeze the action it makes your turn decision very easy when you don't turn a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

Rob

Re: K9s on the button
 

Flop: Ugh, I dislike these spots as all options feel dirty. 3-betting might be best, as you're paying 1BB to find out if you need to continue in the hand. I don't think calling is horrible, and I wouldn't hate a fold either.

On the turn I have a hard time seeing where you're ahead of UTG+1 without knowing he's a manaic. At best you might be buying yourself a free showdown if he's got just a king, but if we don't river our flush, I'm not sure how awesome a free showdown is.

If we don't raise, we may see showdown for the same price, and have something to raise when our flush gets there.

Re: K9s on the button
 

I am "grunching".

As to the preflop limp, I think it depends STRONGLY on the limpers. While I play alot of trash on the button, it's strongly based on the limpers. Against unknowns, I muck quite a few hands that I would play against people I know very well. None the less, K9s against 4 random limpers is playable, so I can't really fault you there.

You're getting 10:1 on the turn, with top pair and the flush draw, and you wouldn't mind knocking out the SB if he's got AQ or QJ, and 10-10 or J-J are leaving no matter what you do. Removing AJ would be good as well.

Also, I am not that convinced you are behind, and you are in position to take a free showdown, which I recommend, given that you are vastly overstating your hand values.

Re: K9s on the button
 

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Raise preflop.

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Man, I'm just getting comfortable playing these suited three-gappers on the button, and now you want me to raise them?

Thanks, though. Any comments on the other stuff?

-McGee

Re: K9s on the button
 

Hi Dids

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On the turn I have a hard time seeing where you're ahead of UTG+1 without knowing he's a manaic. At best you might be buying yourself a free showdown if he's got just a king, but if we don't river our flush, I'm not sure how awesome a free showdown is.

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Don't forget the SB. Trying to knock him out is a big reason why I raised.

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If we don't raise, we may see showdown for the same price, and have something to raise when our flush gets there.

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If our flush does get there, then three bets will go in on the big streets either way: 1 on the turn and 2 on the river if I don't raise the turn; and 2 on the turn and 1 on the river of I do.

-McGee

Results
 

Because I'm headed out of town for the weekend, and won't be able to check back until Monday, here are the results, though they are inconsequential.

I raised the turn, the SB folded, and UTG+1 called.

River was the seven of spades, checked to me, I bet, he called, and mucked KQo.

More discussion encouraged, if there's discussion to be had.

-McGee