NFL Week 1 Lines
 

I see there up on bet365, and does anyone else think that Green Bay +3 against the Lions might lead them to early retirement?

Ken

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
I see there up on bet365, and does anyone else think that Green Bay +3 against the Lions might lead them to early retirement?

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

I saw GB +3 and i figured there must be something I don't know about that game. I also like Ariz +1.5.

How about the Jets to win straight up at +150. That seems to be a good value.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Oakland +7.5... does anyone see this getting to +8 at any point closer to kickoff?

This is one play I'll definetly be playing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Oakland +7.5... does anyone see this getting to +8 at any point closer to kickoff?

This is one line I'll definetly be playing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oakland +7.5... does anyone see this getting to +8 at any point closer to kickoff?

This is one line I'll definetly be playing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If it does, it will be a very interesting teaser possibility.

Ken

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

The one that stuck out to me was Bills/Houston o/u 40. I definately LOVE the under, considering J.P. Lossman will be making his first start as a pro(probably won't be too effective), and the Bills defense is very solid. I need to do my research for exact statistics, but I know for a fact that in the last few years, Bills home games have gone under way more than they've gone over...

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
The one that stuck out to me was Bills/Houston o/u 40. I definately LOVE the under, considering J.P. Lossman will be making his first start as a pro(probably won't be too effective), and the Bills defense is very solid. I need to do my research for exact statistics, but I know for a fact that in the last few years, Bills home games have gone under way more than they've gone over...

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a pretty good line to bet at, if I wasnt going to be at the game myself (a pretty big bills fan) Id be all over it.. There will be plenty of running in this game, lots of Willis and Davis...

The bills D will be as energetic as last years opener vs Jax, flying to the ball.. id be suprised if Hou scores 14 points. That leaves the bills with 26 points to score, I think their goal will be ball possesion and keeping the pace low. Im predicting a Bills 20, Texas 10.

Take it from what its worth from this homer! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

The pats are gonig to murder the raiders. Remember last year when the pats won the super bowl and the raiders were awful. Neither team has changed that much in the off season. I'd buy half a whole point and drop this game to 6.5 and take the pats to cover at -135. The pats are gonig to murder oakland. Not even gonig to be close. Pats win by a minimum of ten points.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oakland +7.5... does anyone see this getting to +8 at any point closer to kickoff?

This is one line I'll definetly be playing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If it does, it will be a very interesting teaser possibility.

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you going to tease it to and why?

craig

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Your rhetoric's a little hyperbolic for an statistic modeller lol Anyway, I could see the Pats winning by 30 or 3. It's only a 1 unit play in my system so I don't have strong feelings about it either way.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Why are you varying your bet size? I can give you a mathematical argument why all your bets shoul dbe the same size and as big as possible.

In response to my rhetoric, I am a big pats fan and I jsu tfeel they are gonig to win this game. The feel howver, is wrong all of the time. I don't start betting NFL games until week 3 anyway. Same thing with NCAAF. I still feel and have evidence of teh pats winning this game by at least ten points.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Oakland +7.5... does anyone see this getting to +8 at any point closer to kickoff?

This is one line I'll definetly be playing [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

If it does, it will be a very interesting teaser possibility.

Ken

[/ QUOTE ]

What are you going to tease it to and why?

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

Might make a few small teasers with it, matching it with GB+9.......... Washington -.5 ......... Indy +3 and Philly +4.5 would all be considered. as for the why, well im not sure, but I would consider doing it anyways

Ken

PS- I never said I was good at this.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why are you varying your bet size?

[/ QUOTE ]

As discussed before, less exposure to larger variances. I could bet 3 games a week or I could bet 15. Incidentally, few of my big unit plays come within the first 4 weeks of the the season so I can understand waiting until week 3 to start betting.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Your rhetoric's a little hyperbolic for an statistic modeller

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. I was thinking the same thing. Doesn't sound much like a regression model to me.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
I saw GB +3 and i figured there must be something I don't know about that game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Green Bay (since Favre has been QB) has been terrible in Detroit. Add to that a HIGHLY suspect defense and the first changes to the offensive line in at least three years and this seems like a reasonable line.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
The pats are gonig to murder the raiders. Remember last year when the pats won the super bowl and the raiders were awful. Neither team has changed that much in the off season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Save this crap. The Raiders added the best WR in the game, and a highly touted RB.

The Pats have lost a numnber of players including one of the team's leaders in Teddy Brusci.

The Pats may very well "murder" the Raiders, but try and provide some analysis that is different from what we hear at the bar.

-SC

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

GB+3 looks like a sucker bet to me. Avoid totally unless you feel Lions weren't trying last night.

Houston/bills Under 40 looks like a nice 3-5 unit pick. And no, I don't use constant units. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

naj

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Pats may very well "murder" the Raiders, but try and provide some analysis that is different from what we hear at the bar.

[/ QUOTE ]

Amen.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
The pats are gonig to murder the raiders. Remember last year when the pats won the super bowl and the raiders were awful. Neither team has changed that much in the off season.

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you been living under a rock for the past 6 months? The Raiders grabbed Randy Moss, who is arguably the best at what he does. They also added LaMont Jordan, who should have a breakout year.
The Pats lost their offensive and defensive coordinators and added some players at key positions. This includes picking up LB Chad Brown.
And you don't think either team has changed?

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Fair enough. That was the pats fan in me talking about how the raiders ore gonig to get killed. It is a bunch of crap. you are right. I'm not gonig to touch this game with any of my money, and talking about how i feel teh pats are gonig to win probably deserves to be in a differnet forum all together. Sorry.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Well, last year GB at Detroit ended up 38-10 Packers, so if you think recency means anything......
You also had the "GB can't win in a dome" theory until last year, when they knocked off Minn. at Minn. to win the division.
Agree that GB has a suspect defense, and you would hope Detroit isn't as bad as they looked last week, but I think GB is going to blitz Harrington every down - and he isn't going to handle it. I suspect Detroit would have a better chance starting Garcia - which they won't do.
I think GB wins pretty easily - not so much because I think they're that good - I just think Detroit is going to be a bust.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

I like the Ravens getting a FG at home in primetime vs. Indy. A less healthy Ravens team pretty much shut down the Colts last year in the dome for 3 Qtrs, and I expect Balt's offense to be better this year.

To a lesser extent I like the Jets getting a FG as well.

Yeah, I wouldn't touch that GB-Det game with a 10 foot pole.

The Patriots ARE going to murder the Raiders.
Who exactly did they lose other than Bruschi and Weiss?
Law missed the majority of last year, Roman Phifer is old as hell and lost his job to one-dimensional Ted Johnson last year, who subsequently wasn't needed anymore either.
The Pats' losses have been greatly exaggerated. Even the coordinators. Crennel was very good, but it was always Belichick's defense.
Moss might make a pretty play or two, but as soon as they turn the ball over (and they will) they're going to be playing from 10-14 points down because their defense is Swiss Cheese, and if you're at all familiar with Kerry Collins, you can see the turnovers start to snowball from there.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

People, it's just one game. Anyone so sure of a Pats murder or an outright Raiders win should play this game massively, but alas something tells me hyperbole abounds here.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Yes it's only one game, and yes I'll probably wuss out and not bet the mortgage on the game because well, it's usually a stupid thing to do.
I like to talk football, I would bet on it if I had to pick 3 games for that week, and I just don't think the gap between the 2 teams has closed nearly as much as others in this thread have been saying. That is all.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
People, it's just one game. Anyone so sure of a Pats murder or an outright Raiders win should play this game massively, but alas something tells me hyperbole abounds here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I obviously like home dogs, but I think historically the first week (maybe even two) they don't cover as often. I am not 100% certain on this, but I am pretty sure.

As far as the 7.5, I don't understand your math (I am not great with math), but I know there is a reason the books don't like to move off of the 3 and 7. And usually when they do they are taking a stance on the game. So, why would you not want to side with the book for the extra 10 cents? (especially since you are already getting low vig anyways)? Would you have taken OAK +6.5? I am just curious.

Also, off topic, but I think you think i am picking on you. I am really not a jerk. I don't think you can win with just two books? I know that you always pay on/off the 3 or 7, etc... But, it isn't personal. The only reason I was a dick at first was because it seemed like you wanted to tout on Ebay.

craig

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
I obviously like home dogs, but I think historically the first week (maybe even two) they don't cover as often.

[/ QUOTE ]

The Raiders are a road dog not a home dog.

[ QUOTE ]
So, why would you not want to side with the book for the extra 10 cents?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because if you're going to lose a bet 46.11% of the time, you'd rather lose $47.17 than $53.50. The 5.36% of such games that end directly on 7 don't make up the difference for the +7.5 play. This kind of saving adds up over the course of a long season.

[ QUOTE ]
Would you have taken OAK +6.5? I am just curious.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. I'm only comfortable bidding down to 7 or 3, and much less often with 3 than 7.

[ QUOTE ]
Also, off topic, but I think you think i am picking on you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not really. If I couldn't back up my assertions I'd be gone by now. I handled the eBay thing wrong as it was.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
Because if you're going to lose a bet 46.11% of the time, you'd rather lose $47.17 than $53.50. The 5.36% of such games that end directly on 7 don't make up the difference for the +7.5 play. This kind of saving adds up over the course of a long season.


[/ QUOTE ]

The key to this debate is your 5.36% estimate of a push on the 7. Most resources (e.g., Wong's book, etc.) put that percentage higher, which would change the result of your analysis and make it wrong to sell off the 7.5.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
The key to this debate is your 5.36% estimate of a push on the 7. Most resources (e.g., Wong's book, etc.) put that percentage higher, which would change the result of your analysis and make it wrong to sell off the 7.5.

[/ QUOTE ]

If the estimate of the game ending on Pats by 7 is higher than 5.36%, then yes +7.5 -107 likely ends up the better play. Keep in mind my assertion for the 7 number is only for the Pats winning by 7, not the game ending in 7 for either team. That number is somewhere around 10% (don't have the exact figures) and is irrelevant to this argument.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Yes. I am talking strictly about the probability of the favorite winning by exactly 7.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

Yes, then +7.5 would be the way to go. I'm confident in the 5.36% number. Heck, if the Raiders were being offered at -105 instead of 107 I'd be going the +7.5 route.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
I like the Ravens getting a FG at home in primetime vs. Indy. A less healthy Ravens team pretty much shut down the Colts last year in the dome for 3 Qtrs, and I expect Balt's offense to be better this year.


[/ QUOTE ]

I have to disagree with you on the Ravens. Baltimore is going to have a great defense this year, no doubt about it. However, Indy got off to a quick start last year against another great defense (New England) and almost won. However, Baltimore's D has usually started off slowly. They gave up 20 points to Cleveland in week 1 '04 and 34 points to Pittsburgh in week 1 '03.

The Ravens are getting a lot of respect this year, at least from bettors, and I'm not sure it's warranted. The defense should improve because of personell and scheme, but they're still working the new modified 46 package into their overall defense and new players haven't had time to jell and understand the system yet. Also, let's not forget that the guy leading this offense is Kyle Boller. Every day there are news articles about him regressing in training camp and the Ravens scaling back the offense even more. In the meantime, Tony Dungy has slowly been improving the Indy defense (although, with their cap situation, our expectations should be tempered).

All in all, I think that Indy should be more than a 3 point favorite (especially one with positive odds, +102 right now).

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]


Houston/bills Under 40 looks like a nice 3-5 unit pick. And no, I don't use constant units. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

naj

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope your pkr br is seperate from your sb br.

Re: NFL Week 1 Lines
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


Houston/bills Under 40 looks like a nice 3-5 unit pick. And no, I don't use constant units. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

naj

[/ QUOTE ]

i hope your pkr br is seperate from your sb br. kkf

[/ QUOTE ]


It is, and the Houston/Buffalo O/U is down to 37 already, Mr. Wizard. [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]
Glad I got 4 units down already, thinking about adding, but may not.

best,

Naj