White Sox Winner!!!
 

Two out of three from the Twinkies on the road. We'll take it. The first base ump tried to give it away in the 9th, but the Sox came back and whipped Crain in the 10th for the win.

For those of you still holding out hope in the AL Central -- the race is over. I wish the Twins and Tribe luck in the wild card race though.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

You want to put your money where your mouth is?

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

The only people who think the Sox have a chance in the postseason are Sox fans.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

Was this game on TV in the Windy City? We didn't get to see it up here in Minneapolis...

Joe Mays...you guys should be thanking your lucky stars that Gardy and the team respect what he's done to get back. Any other situation for that guy and they're skipping his spot in the rotation.

I still think the Twins have a very good shot at winning the Wild Card, and a (VERY) outside chance at the division, but its not going to happen if they have to dig themselves out of 6-run holes every time Mays comes up. I really hope he can just get his form and his confidence back, if not in Minneapolis, then somewhere he can make a difference. Tommy John changes these guys.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
and a (VERY) outside chance at the division

[/ QUOTE ]

You left out some "VERYS" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only people who think the Sox have a chance in the postseason are Sox fans.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true for some stupid reason. Our pitching alone will win the first series even if the bats don't show up. I bet if we picked up Griffey Jr. we would all the sudden be given credit for being a contender even though he wouldn't make that much of a difference in the line up.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and a (VERY) outside chance at the division

[/ QUOTE ]

You left out some "VERYS" [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, 7 games left and Mays might not be on the roster. Lots of baseball left.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only people who think the Sox have a chance in the postseason are Sox fans.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true for some stupid reason. Our pitching alone will win the first series even if the bats don't show up. I bet if we picked up Griffey Jr. we would all the sudden be given credit for being a contender even though he wouldn't make that much of a difference in the line up.

[/ QUOTE ]you are dumb.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
The only people who think the Sox have a chance in the postseason are Sox fans.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is true for some stupid reason. Our pitching alone will win the first series even if the bats don't show up. I bet if we picked up Griffey Jr. we would all the sudden be given credit for being a contender even though he wouldn't make that much of a difference in the line up.

[/ QUOTE ]you are dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess 15K posts gives you the right to be a complete douche bag. Or would you care to elaborate on why I'm dumb?

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

you are implying that 30 hr's wouldn't make an impact in that lineup?

There isn't one everyday player on that team with a higher OPS.

Only one person with more HR's.

No one with more RBI's, which admitently are dependant on other factors.

No one with more doubles.

Only one player with a barely higher OBP.


Need me to continue?

Quit making stupid hyperbolous posts.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

The Sox won't be getting Griffey, neither will anybody else. The waiver date has already past, if the Sox were going to make a move it would have happened already. They were only offering Mccarthy and Marte in trades, I am guessing they didn't want to part with Brian Anderson, and rightly so, that kid will be a stud.

To those who think the White Sox will be one and done in the post season, remember they have the BEST ERA in the AL, and the best bullpen in the AL. Along with the best pitching, they have the best defense in the AL, so take a look at the past few seasons, and note the scrappy teams winning WS championships with pitching and defense. They are 62 - 33 with Podsednik in the lineup, and the catalyst will be back on Monday from a rehab assignment. The Sox don't score many runs, but they don't give up many either. Notice in the Sox - Yankees series, how many home runs did the Yankees hit? They have the most home runs in baseball, and were held in check by Sox pitching. The White Sox lead the league in Sac flies, sac-bunts, and steal attempts. They play small ball by choice. Move runners, play smart, and hold a lead. They could be a slugging team, go for the home run if they wanted to, but they choose not to. They weren't one of the league leaders in home runs last season because of Carlos Lee and Frank Thomas alone, they had everyone contributing to the home run and slugging totals. They can score when they want to, but for the most part, they hold a lead and try to manufacture runs. People who just blatantly say that the Sox will be a one and done team in the playoffs are homer fans who don't know a lot about the game. The White Sox are the best team in the AL, and will be the team to beat going into the playoffs.

Nuff Said

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]
I love posts based solely on spite. Good one.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
The only people who think the Sox have a chance in the postseason are Sox fans.

[/ QUOTE ]
Is this supposed to make me uneasy? The "experts" are usually right?

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Sox won't be getting Griffey, neither will anybody else. The waiver date has already past, if the Sox were going to make a move it would have happened already. They were only offering Mccarthy and Marte in trades, I am guessing they didn't want to part with Brian Anderson, and rightly so, that kid will be a stud.

To those who think the White Sox will be one and done in the post season, remember they have the BEST ERA in the AL, and the best bullpen in the AL. Along with the best pitching, they have the best defense in the AL, so take a look at the past few seasons, and note the scrappy teams winning WS championships with pitching and defense. They are 62 - 33 with Podsednik in the lineup, and the catalyst will be back on Monday from a rehab assignment. The Sox don't score many runs, but they don't give up many either. Notice in the Sox - Yankees series, how many home runs did the Yankees hit? They have the most home runs in baseball, and were held in check by Sox pitching. The White Sox lead the league in Sac flies, sac-bunts, and steal attempts. They play small ball by choice. Move runners, play smart, and hold a lead. They could be a slugging team, go for the home run if they wanted to, but they choose not to. They weren't one of the league leaders in home runs last season because of Carlos Lee and Frank Thomas alone, they had everyone contributing to the home run and slugging totals. They can score when they want to, but for the most part, they hold a lead and try to manufacture runs. People who just blatantly say that the Sox will be a one and done team in the playoffs are homer fans who don't know a lot about the game. The White Sox are the best team in the AL, and will be the team to beat going into the playoffs.

Nuff Said

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
The Sox won't be getting Griffey, neither will anybody else.

[/ QUOTE ] No kidding.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

EDIT: White Sox "LOSERS"

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: White Sox "LOSERS"

[/ QUOTE ]

Creative.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
EDIT: White Sox "LOSERS"

[/ QUOTE ]

Creative.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you sir.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

I was secretly hoping that the Griffey trade would go through before tonight- headed to the Safe to see the King pitch tonight.

I really hope he gets back in the American League soon- being able to DH a couple days a week would lessen the wear and tear and give him a shot at 700 HRs.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
I was secretly hoping that the Griffey trade would go through before tonight- headed to the Safe to see the King pitch tonight.

I really hope he gets back in the American League soon- being able to DH a couple days a week would lessen the wear and tear and give him a shot at 700 HRs.

[/ QUOTE ]

I live in Chicago, so I don't get to watch a lot of west coast baseball. When the M's were in Chicago a couple of weeks ago we missed Felix. I'm looking forward to watching him tonight. I've heard a lot about him, but have yet to see him live.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
and the best bullpen in the AL

[/ QUOTE ]

The White Sox don't even have the best pen in the division.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

[/ QUOTE ]

the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters)

That goes for every team, some have a better chance to win than others (Stl>Chicago>SD etc) but when 'good' teams play a short series, variance rules supreme.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

[/ QUOTE ]

the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters)

That goes for every team, some have a better chance to win than others (Stl>Chicago>SD etc) but when 'good' teams play a short series, variance rules supreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lucky? That's ridiculous. Absolutely pathetic. You seemed smarter than this. Bloop hits? Don't comment on things you don't know about.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
and the best bullpen in the AL

[/ QUOTE ]

The White Sox don't even have the best pen in the division.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Yes they do.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

[/ QUOTE ]

the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters)

That goes for every team, some have a better chance to win than others (Stl>Chicago>SD etc) but when 'good' teams play a short series, variance rules supreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lucky? That's ridiculous. Absolutely pathetic. You seemed smarter than this. Bloop hits? Don't comment on things you don't know about.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think variance plays a huge part in the playoffs? Since you are so convinced that the White Sox have not gotten very lucky throughout the whole season, lets place a bet on whether they will even win a series. I think they will not win a series in the post season; whether they play Boston, Anaheim, New York Yankees, or Oakland in the first round. You name the amount. I will do anything $150 or less. And at this point I will do even money. But, the longer we wait, the less likely I will be willing to do this (because the longer the season goes on, the more likely it will be they will be a favorite..unless they play Boston or NYY..then they will be dogs..with or without the HFA).

craig

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

[/ QUOTE ]

the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters)

That goes for every team, some have a better chance to win than others (Stl>Chicago>SD etc) but when 'good' teams play a short series, variance rules supreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lucky? That's ridiculous. Absolutely pathetic. You seemed smarter than this. Bloop hits? Don't comment on things you don't know about.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think variance plays a huge part in the playoffs? Since you are so convinced that the White Sox have not gotten very lucky throughout the whole season, lets place a bet on whether they will even win a series. I think they will not win a series in the post season; whether they play Boston, Anaheim, New York Yankees, or Oakland in the first round. You name the amount. I will do anything $150 or less. And at this point I will do even money. But, the longer we wait, the less likely I will be willing to do this (because the longer the season goes on, the more likely it will be they will be a favorite..unless they play Boston or NYY..then they will be dogs..with or without the HFA).

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, i have had this clown on ignore since jump street. nice to see he's as retarded as i thought.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
You don't think variance plays a huge part in the playoffs? Since you are so convinced that the White Sox have not gotten very lucky throughout the whole season, lets place a bet on whether they will even win a series. I think they will not win a series in the post season; whether they play Boston, Anaheim, New York Yankees, or Oakland in the first round. You name the amount. I will do anything $150 or less. And at this point I will do even money. But, the longer we wait, the less likely I will be willing to do this (because the longer the season goes on, the more likely it will be they will be a favorite..unless they play Boston or NYY..then they will be dogs..with or without the HFA).

craig

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course, variance plays a huge part of the playoffs, as evidenced by the fact that wild card teams have won the Series for what...the last 3 years? I just have a hard time believing that a team that has won 77 games, has the best record in the AL by 5 1/2 games, and until just this past week had the best record in baseball isn't good -- they're just lucky. That's B.S. In my opinion it comes from "experts" that are having a hard time explaining why their predictions aren't being realized and fans that are having a hard time figuring out why their teams aren't running away with it.

I'm not betting -- as a Chicago White Sox fan, I've been conditioned to be disappointed for my entire life. I was disappointed in what sublime wrote because up until this point I actually thought he knew what he was talking about. But he pulled "lucky" and " bloop hits" out of his ass like he knew, and it's just not true. The Sox haven't won many games they haven't deserved to win -- that's not lucky. In yesterday's game against the Twins there wasn't much doubt they were going to win that game in the 10th -- they scorched just about every ball Crain through in the 9th and 10th -- not a bloop in the bunch.

I don't know if they're going to win or not -- I do know they're built to be successful in the postseason, and they have a greater chance of doing something in the Playoffs than any year since 1983. If they don't make it to the series I'm going to be disappointed, but not because it just proves they were lucky to get there. Because I think they're good enough to win.

The fact that nobody is giving them any respect is nothing short of a joke. There isn't a team in the AL that has them overmatched. Period.

They have the best record in the AL, and it's not even close. And that's because they're good -- not lucky.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

[/ QUOTE ]

the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters)

That goes for every team, some have a better chance to win than others (Stl>Chicago>SD etc) but when 'good' teams play a short series, variance rules supreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lucky? That's ridiculous. Absolutely pathetic. You seemed smarter than this. Bloop hits? Don't comment on things you don't know about.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think variance plays a huge part in the playoffs? Since you are so convinced that the White Sox have not gotten very lucky throughout the whole season, lets place a bet on whether they will even win a series. I think they will not win a series in the post season; whether they play Boston, Anaheim, New York Yankees, or Oakland in the first round. You name the amount. I will do anything $150 or less. And at this point I will do even money. But, the longer we wait, the less likely I will be willing to do this (because the longer the season goes on, the more likely it will be they will be a favorite..unless they play Boston or NYY..then they will be dogs..with or without the HFA).

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, i have had this clown on ignore since jump street. nice to see he's as retarded as i thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice -- once you've realized you're way over your skis, and you have absolutely no point to make, go ahead and get personal with some insults. That's the M.O., right?

What you said was wrong, and had zero basis on fact whatsoever. I pointed it out, and I'm retarded?

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

[/ QUOTE ]

How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

[/ QUOTE ]

the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters)

That goes for every team, some have a better chance to win than others (Stl>Chicago>SD etc) but when 'good' teams play a short series, variance rules supreme.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lucky? That's ridiculous. Absolutely pathetic. You seemed smarter than this. Bloop hits? Don't comment on things you don't know about.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't think variance plays a huge part in the playoffs? Since you are so convinced that the White Sox have not gotten very lucky throughout the whole season, lets place a bet on whether they will even win a series. I think they will not win a series in the post season; whether they play Boston, Anaheim, New York Yankees, or Oakland in the first round. You name the amount. I will do anything $150 or less. And at this point I will do even money. But, the longer we wait, the less likely I will be willing to do this (because the longer the season goes on, the more likely it will be they will be a favorite..unless they play Boston or NYY..then they will be dogs..with or without the HFA).

craig

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, i have had this clown on ignore since jump street. nice to see he's as retarded as i thought.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice -- once you've realized you're way over your skis, and you have absolutely no point to make, go ahead and get personal with some insults. That's the M.O., right?

What you said was wrong, and had zero basis on fact whatsoever. I pointed it out, and I'm retarded?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok. I will simplify this as much as possible (why, i dont know, as the chances of you agreeing you are wrong are null)

When two teams of approximate skill* meet in a game, one will win 50% of the time, the other 50% if you play the game a large amount of times (say 162 for sake of argument)

Now with variance mixed in, one team will win 4 in a row or 4/7 quite a few times. (to further illustrate this point go flip a coin 100 times and record the results).

Now if you flip heads 10 times in a row, what would you call it? Clutch flipping ability? Or variance? (another term for variance is LUCK) Now, luck doesnt exist, it all evens out in the long run (say 162 trials, even that's too small). It doesnt even out over 7 games.

Look at the NYY and the Devil Rays this year. The Devil rays have a winning record, yet you would have to a complete moron to suggest they are a better team than the Yankees. If they played another 100 games against each other, the odds suggest the Yankees would have a winning record over them (by a VERY wide margin).

I am amazed that this is the premier gambling site on the internet yet simple mathematical issues like this make people look idiotic when trying to discuss them.


*Note: Two teams are rarely exactly 50/50 in terms on win expectancy. Just they are a lot closer in the playoffs than the regular season, thus LUCK (variance) playing such a large factor. If you put the Royals in a 7 games series against the White sox, luck will still exist but it wont be as big a factor due to the Sox being far superior in talent.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
Ok. I will simplify this as much as possible (why, i dont know, as the chances of you agreeing you are wrong are null)

When two teams of approximate skill* meet in a game, one will win 50% of the time, the other 50% if you play the game a large amount of times (say 162 for sake of argument)

Now with variance mixed in, one team will win 4 in a row or 4/7 quite a few times. (to further illustrate this point go flip a coin 100 times and record the results).

Now if you flip heads 10 times in a row, what would you call it? Clutch flipping ability? Or variance? (another term for variance is LUCK) Now, luck doesnt exist, it all evens out in the long run (say 162 trials, even that's too small). It doesnt even out over 7 games.

Look at the NYY and the Devil Rays this year. The Devil rays have a winning record, yet you would have to a complete moron to suggest they are a better team than the Yankees. If they played another 100 games against each other, the odds suggest the Yankees would have a winning record over them (by a VERY wide margin).

I am amazed that this is the premier gambling site on the internet yet simple mathematical issues like this make people look idiotic when trying to discuss them.

*Note: Two teams are rarely exactly 50/50 in terms on win expectancy. Just they are a lot closer in the playoffs than the regular season, thus LUCK (variance) playing such a large factor. If you put the Royals in a 7 games series against the White sox, luck will still exist but it wont be as big a factor due to the Sox being far superior in talent.

[/ QUOTE ]
As stated in my previous post, I understand the concept of variance -- in fact I've understood it too well lately, as it relates to poker. I'm having a hard time understanding how it relates to them in the regular season. They've played 124 games now -- if they're getting lucky all year, then by your explanation I can expect them to finish the year 4-34 and even out at .500? By your own description, you have to consider them the favorite in the AL at this point, don't you?

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
By your own description, you have to consider them the favorite in the AL at this point, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

If they play Bos, NYY, and possibly even ANA, they will not be favored. I am not saying they won't be good bets, because I don't know the lines, but they won't be favored. And I am saying this knowing they will most likely have HFA (unless they really screw it up).

craig

p.s. I can't stand the yankees and really don't like ANA very much, so I am not using any type of fan bias here. But, I think if they play boston (which I am a boston fan) they will be bigger dogs than vs. any other team. And in fact, that is the team i hope that Boston plays. I don't think they are a horrible team, but I also don't think they are as good as their record shows. And if there is any factor of luck that is more than apparent, it is in the one run games, which they are 27-15. And truthfully, their record is not THAT much better than the other AL division leaders.

craig

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By your own description, you have to consider them the favorite in the AL at this point, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

If they play Bos, NYY, and possibly even ANA, they will not be favored. I am not saying they won't be good bets, because I don't know the lines, but they won't be favored. And I am saying this knowing they will most likely have HFA (unless they really screw it up).

craig

p.s. I can't stand the yankees and really don't like ANA very much, so I am not using any type of fan bias here. But, I think if they play boston (which I am a boston fan) they will be bigger dogs than vs. any other team. And in fact, that is the team i hope that Boston plays. I don't think they are a horrible team, but I also don't think they are as good as their record shows. And if there is any factor of luck that is more than apparent, it is in the one run games, which they are 27-15. And truthfully, their record is not THAT much better than the other AL division leaders.
craig

[/ QUOTE ]
I won't argue with this -- I hope the rest of the AL stays in the dark. If a dominant record in one run games is a sign of luck, so be it. Let's just say they're the luckiest team 30 games over .500 in the history of baseball.

I guess we'll see in the playoffs. One thing we both seem to agree on is who we'd like to see as our first round opponents. Since we can't face an AL Central opponent in the first round, Boston would be my first pick. Good luck.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ok. I will simplify this as much as possible (why, i dont know, as the chances of you agreeing you are wrong are null)

When two teams of approximate skill* meet in a game, one will win 50% of the time, the other 50% if you play the game a large amount of times (say 162 for sake of argument)

Now with variance mixed in, one team will win 4 in a row or 4/7 quite a few times. (to further illustrate this point go flip a coin 100 times and record the results).

Now if you flip heads 10 times in a row, what would you call it? Clutch flipping ability? Or variance? (another term for variance is LUCK) Now, luck doesnt exist, it all evens out in the long run (say 162 trials, even that's too small). It doesnt even out over 7 games.

Look at the NYY and the Devil Rays this year. The Devil rays have a winning record, yet you would have to a complete moron to suggest they are a better team than the Yankees. If they played another 100 games against each other, the odds suggest the Yankees would have a winning record over them (by a VERY wide margin).

I am amazed that this is the premier gambling site on the internet yet simple mathematical issues like this make people look idiotic when trying to discuss them.

*Note: Two teams are rarely exactly 50/50 in terms on win expectancy. Just they are a lot closer in the playoffs than the regular season, thus LUCK (variance) playing such a large factor. If you put the Royals in a 7 games series against the White sox, luck will still exist but it wont be as big a factor due to the Sox being far superior in talent.

[/ QUOTE ]
As stated in my previous post, I understand the concept of variance -- in fact I've understood it too well lately, as it relates to poker. I'm having a hard time understanding how it relates to them in the regular season. They've played 124 games now -- if they're getting lucky all year, then by your explanation I can expect them to finish the year 4-34 and even out at .500? By your own description, you have to consider them the favorite in the AL at this point, don't you?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think he ever said luck contributed to our regular season success?

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You don't think variance plays a huge part in the playoffs? Since you are so convinced that the White Sox have not gotten very lucky throughout the whole season, lets place a bet on whether they will even win a series. I think they will not win a series in the post season; whether they play Boston, Anaheim, New York Yankees, or Oakland in the first round. You name the amount. I will do anything $150 or less. And at this point I will do even money. But, the longer we wait, the less likely I will be willing to do this (because the longer the season goes on, the more likely it will be they will be a favorite..unless they play Boston or NYY..then they will be dogs..with or without the HFA).

craig

[/ QUOTE ]
Of course, variance plays a huge part of the playoffs, as evidenced by the fact that wild card teams have won the Series for what...the last 3 years? I just have a hard time believing that a team that has won 77 games, has the best record in the AL by 5 1/2 games, and until just this past week had the best record in baseball isn't good -- they're just lucky. That's B.S.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sublime never said they were lucky in the regular season, just in the playoffs there's a bigger variance issue. You seem to understand this but are extrapolating his argument to mean that the Sox have also been lucky in the regular season.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

[ QUOTE ]
the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters) [ QUOTE ]

I don't think he ever said luck contributed to our regular season success?

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That's not what I took from it. Whatever. Who cares? They're right -- we're lucky, and we'll show up for our beating in round one. Just tell us where to go.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

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Ok. I will simplify this as much as possible (why, i dont know, as the chances of you agreeing you are wrong are null)

When two teams of approximate skill* meet in a game, one will win 50% of the time, the other 50% if you play the game a large amount of times (say 162 for sake of argument)

Now with variance mixed in, one team will win 4 in a row or 4/7 quite a few times. (to further illustrate this point go flip a coin 100 times and record the results).

Now if you flip heads 10 times in a row, what would you call it? Clutch flipping ability? Or variance? (another term for variance is LUCK) Now, luck doesnt exist, it all evens out in the long run (say 162 trials, even that's too small). It doesnt even out over 7 games.

Look at the NYY and the Devil Rays this year. The Devil rays have a winning record, yet you would have to a complete moron to suggest they are a better team than the Yankees. If they played another 100 games against each other, the odds suggest the Yankees would have a winning record over them (by a VERY wide margin).

I am amazed that this is the premier gambling site on the internet yet simple mathematical issues like this make people look idiotic when trying to discuss them.

*Note: Two teams are rarely exactly 50/50 in terms on win expectancy. Just they are a lot closer in the playoffs than the regular season, thus LUCK (variance) playing such a large factor. If you put the Royals in a 7 games series against the White sox, luck will still exist but it wont be as big a factor due to the Sox being far superior in talent.

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As stated in my previous post, I understand the concept of variance -- in fact I've understood it too well lately, as it relates to poker. I'm having a hard time understanding how it relates to them in the regular season. They've played 124 games now -- if they're getting lucky all year, then by your explanation I can expect them to finish the year 4-34 and even out at .500? By your own description, you have to consider them the favorite in the AL at this point, don't you?

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Thye HAVE been lucky this year (thier record is better than thier runs scored/allowed would suggest) that doesnt mean they are not a good team, just been luckier than normal.

Nobody has said they are a .500 team playign that FAR over thier heads, they just have been on the right side of variance (unlike a team like the blue jays who have been on the negative side)

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

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Ok. I will simplify this as much as possible (why, i dont know, as the chances of you agreeing you are wrong are null)

When two teams of approximate skill* meet in a game, one will win 50% of the time, the other 50% if you play the game a large amount of times (say 162 for sake of argument)

Now with variance mixed in, one team will win 4 in a row or 4/7 quite a few times. (to further illustrate this point go flip a coin 100 times and record the results).

Now if you flip heads 10 times in a row, what would you call it? Clutch flipping ability? Or variance? (another term for variance is LUCK) Now, luck doesnt exist, it all evens out in the long run (say 162 trials, even that's too small). It doesnt even out over 7 games.

Look at the NYY and the Devil Rays this year. The Devil rays have a winning record, yet you would have to a complete moron to suggest they are a better team than the Yankees. If they played another 100 games against each other, the odds suggest the Yankees would have a winning record over them (by a VERY wide margin).

I am amazed that this is the premier gambling site on the internet yet simple mathematical issues like this make people look idiotic when trying to discuss them.

*Note: Two teams are rarely exactly 50/50 in terms on win expectancy. Just they are a lot closer in the playoffs than the regular season, thus LUCK (variance) playing such a large factor. If you put the Royals in a 7 games series against the White sox, luck will still exist but it wont be as big a factor due to the Sox being far superior in talent.

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As stated in my previous post, I understand the concept of variance -- in fact I've understood it too well lately, as it relates to poker. I'm having a hard time understanding how it relates to them in the regular season. They've played 124 games now -- if they're getting lucky all year, then by your explanation I can expect them to finish the year 4-34 and even out at .500? By your own description, you have to consider them the favorite in the AL at this point, don't you?

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Thye HAVE been lucky this year (thier record is better than thier runs scored/allowed would suggest) that doesnt mean they are not a good team, just been luckier than normal.

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What can I say...when you're right, you're right.

Re: White Sox Winner!!!
 

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the white sox will not win a post season series, assuming the get there.

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How can you deny the awesomeness of their 1-4 punch
El Duque (2.5 ERA in postseason), Buerhle, Garland, Garcia.

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the white sox winnign a series (or the whole WS) has less to do with theier starting pitching and more to do with how lucky they are (bloop hits, fly balls that stay in the park, streakiness of hitters)

That goes for every team, some have a better chance to win than others (Stl>Chicago>SD etc) but when 'good' teams play a short series, variance rules supreme.

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Lucky? That's ridiculous. Absolutely pathetic. You seemed smarter than this. Bloop hits? Don't comment on things you don't know about.

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You don't think variance plays a huge part in the playoffs? Since you are so convinced that the White Sox have not gotten very lucky throughout the whole season, lets place a bet on whether they will even win a series. I think they will not win a series in the post season; whether they play Boston, Anaheim, New York Yankees, or Oakland in the first round. You name the amount. I will do anything $150 or less. And at this point I will do even money. But, the longer we wait, the less likely I will be willing to do this (because the longer the season goes on, the more likely it will be they will be a favorite..unless they play Boston or NYY..then they will be dogs..with or without the HFA).

craig

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Craig, I'll take your bet. $150 is fine. Let me know if you accept.

-Pete