Folding AA here?
 

We are playing a $24+2 satellite to a WPT event. Top 4 spots get the $12,500 prize package and all else essentially gets zip. Here are the stacks:

UTG: $10,495
UTG+1: $9,505
Villian: $42,600
Hero: $39,000
Small Blind: $38,000
Big Blind: $40,400

Blinds are 500/1,000 with an ante of 100.
The early players fold and Villian moves all-in.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I'm curious why people voted as they did...

Re: Folding AA here?
 

UTG: $10,495
UTG+1: $9,505
Villian: $42,600
Hero: $39,000
Small Blind: $38,000
Big Blind: $40,400

Re: Folding AA here?
 

The biggest question is why would villain put his stack on the line for a measly 2100 in chips when there's 3 people to act behind him that can cripple his stack. How has he played so far? What has he gone all in with?

I'd 100% call with AA, but that might be the only hand I call with at this stage. If you double up, get up and walk away from the table because you're going to the WPT.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

AA and nothing else. The way I figure it is that with AA, I'm at least an 80% favorite (using very rough odds) on whatever he is pushing with, except for AA. Either way my tournament is over here, 80% of the time with a seat and 20% fuming.

Basically the difference between calling or folding with AA in that spot if I fold with AA here, am I sure that I can outlast both short stacks at least 80% of the time?

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I think it far more likely that Big stack has decided to throw his weight around and is looking to double you up. I voted AA-QQ, AK. We can still use a little more equity here. Two players still have to bust out. I highly doubt it will be the two short stacks.

CSC

Re: Folding AA here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it far more likely that Big stack has decided to throw his weight around and is looking to double you up. I voted AA-QQ, AK. We can still use a little more equity here. Two players still have to bust out. I highly doubt it will be the two short stacks.

CSC

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I'm folding AK here. I can find better spots.

-Scott

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I'm calling with AA and KK, and tossing everything else. I'd hate tossing QQ here, for that matter, and AKs would be a bummer to toss, too. But AA and KK for me, and everything else gets mucked.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I'd definitely play AA, maybe KK.
24+2 for a 12,500 package? Where was this and how many entrants?

Re: Folding AA here?
 

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I'm calling with AA and KK, and tossing everything else. I'd hate tossing QQ here, for that matter, and AKs would be a bummer to toss, too. But AA and KK for me, and everything else gets mucked.

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I completely agree. But I **MIGHT** make the call with QQ if my read on villian (based on past play) is he more likely has a smaller PP than AK.

-Scott

Re: Folding AA here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it far more likely that Big stack has decided to throw his weight around and is looking to double you up. I voted AA-QQ, AK. We can still use a little more equity here. Two players still have to bust out. I highly doubt it will be the two short stacks.

CSC

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I agree, I think he's just trying to steal some blinds. I call with AK and AKs b/c I think he very likely has a weaker ace.

It was only $24 to get in, you cant play weak tight just because it's a 12k prize.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I voted for AA-QQ, and AK. The strongest hand I could think that he could do that with would be KK and not wanting to play postflop if an A comes. More likely I think you're up against Ax or a lower pair and he is trying to capitalize on the uber gap concept that comes into play this late into MTT satellite events since we're having this discussion now on just how premium of a hand you need to call with.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

Calling AK here is so very very horrible that I am very surprised that any 2+2'ers would even think about it. (Hint: against a random hand, it ties 88.)

I call with aces. I think about calling kings but probably don't, and turbofold queens. If you call with anything lower than kings you need to rethink how you play satellites; sats are by far my best game and I am 100% sure I am right here.

My 2 Cents...
 

OK, so no one pointed it out, but this hypo is a small variation of the hypo in the final chapter of HoH2. Thus, the logic is not my own. I posted the pole to see if anyone actually follows this when playing...

So the first step is to estimate the probability that each player will make it before any of the cards are dealt. When we get down to 4 players, each has a 100% chance of qualifying (same as winning) so at any earlier point all probabilities must add up to 400%, not 100%.

To make the math easier, let's round the numbers and put them all into an equation:

(this is in the order of stacks listed in the OP)

x + .95x + 4.2x + 3.9x + 3.8x + 4x = 400%
16.85x = 400%
x is therefore about 23.75%

This means that Hero is about 92.5% to qualify while the shortest stack is about 23.75% and Villian is about 95%. This makes sense if you think about it since the short stacks are huge dogs, but they still have a chance, while Hero and the others are big favorites but not guaranteed a spot.

So, what happens when the 2 short stacks fold and Villian moves in and you pick up AA - do we call?

Clearly, Villian does not understand the whole concept of this kind of tourney, which is really annoying to say the least. Let's go through it - what are the probabilities that we win?

Versus KK - 81.1%; 99 - 80.1%; 22 - 81.2%; AKo - 92%; AKs - 87.2%; A2o - 92%; A2s - 87.3%; JTs - 78.1%; Q3o - 87.4%; 72o - 87.3%.

You are currently 92.5% to qualify, and you will remain as such if you fold. Obviously you are 0% to qualify if you call and lose. This isn't exactly accurate, but let's assume that you're 100% to qualify if you call and win.

We are about even money against AKo-A2o and we are in a -EV situation against all other holdings... EVEN IF WE KNOW THAT VILLIAN HAS 72o WE SHOULD STILL FOLD!!!! There is absolutly no sense in a confrontation against another big stack in this type of situation.

Harrington argues that any call from Hero will be an error no matter what (notice that Vilian's move is the much bigger error unless he is certain that all the players yet to act are well versed in game theory and will always fold).

Though some people opined that they fold everything, most people said that they call with aces, and many said they call with queens or AK and sometimes a few more. So why do people call with anything in this spot? How common is it that everything really is folded in this spot?

Re: Folding AA here?
 

[ QUOTE ]


I call with aces... and I am 100% sure I am right here.

[/ QUOTE ]


Nope!

Re: Folding AA here?
 

Bump!

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

The problem with that analysis is that it only works if the other big stacks are equally unwilling to play, as they more or less should be. In any online sat, they aren't, and will frequently call short stack all ins with relative trash like two Broadway or medium pairs. I would put the chance of both of the short stacks doubling up before one busts at somewhere between 20%-30%, and at that point you need to play poker again. Therefore, calling with aces is probably correct despite the math.

However, I'm still stunned that someone here would call AK.

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

I voted fold everything... I think you're risking way too much here.

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

[ QUOTE ]
I voted fold everything... I think you're risking way too much here.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think its necessary to get in with aces here. one of the shorties doubles you grind down a bit from blinds and you actually have to play a bit of poker. i would love to see some exact figures though, as i think its quite close. holla

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

See my above post for the exact figures.

Surprisingly enough, even if Villian has 72o it's mathematically incorrect to call even with AA. And, it's not even close.

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

Just because 27o is the worst hand doesn't mean it's the worst hand against AA. Any ace and any pocket pair is ridiculously dominated by AA in this spot. I can't see him pushing with anything except AK or AA-JJ, in which case you have at LEAST an 80% chance of blowing him away. I like this call.

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

A question. On the line that says:

"Hero is about 92.5% to qualify"

I don't see how that is right. Where did the stack size forumula you use come from?

What probability theoroms say that for odds/related games based on who plays what cards when, each hand having its own unique calculation (and random for the sake of calculations at this stage), that you can apply such a simple formula to the situation?

I don't see it, and I think it is wrong (but would love to be educated about it [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

My vote was for AA only, as you could be a dog with any other hand, and at worst even with another AA hand (though if this were on PokerStars I'm sure someone would board a flush just to spite them [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

The way I see it, idiot big stack is getting called, getting beat, and being one of the two that don't make it, for when he makes this play, and loses, he will be down to 3,600 and out in due course (and both current short stack players LOVE it if this occurs [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img])

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

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Just because 27o is the worst hand doesn't mean it's the worst hand against AA. Any ace and any pocket pair is ridiculously dominated by AA in this spot. I can't see him pushing with anything except AK or AA-JJ, in which case you have at LEAST an 80% chance of blowing him away. I like this call.

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i can see him pushing with just about any 2, as its correct too assuming everyone plays relatively intelligently. holla

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

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i can see him pushing with just about any 2, as its correct too assuming everyone plays relatively intelligently. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, it's totally wrong to push any two, and this hand should give you a good idea why. You see the 2+2'ers out here calling with AK? Holla.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


I call with aces... and I am 100% sure I am right here.

[/ QUOTE ]


Nope!

[/ QUOTE ]

Copying a question out of a book and then chirping "Nope!" when someone gets a different answer is extremely annoying.

I'm not so sure it's mathematically incorrect to call here. 90+% chance based on chip count seems like it has to be high. In a real world situation, though, if someone is playing kamikaze style that increases the chances of a confrontation not involving you. So it's probably right to fold AA here but I don't say that with a high degree of confidence. Any lesser hand, though, I fold in a heartbeat.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not so sure it's mathematically incorrect to call here. 90+% chance based on chip count seems like it has to be high.

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's a pretty simple answer for why it is: the short stacks will go all in and the big stacks will eventually call one or both of them, or vice versa. If the shorties' range is a whopping 40/60 dog vs. the big stacks' range when they do get called (after giving up a few percentage points to account for when one calls the other), they will both double up 16% of the time and you will be in some amount of trouble.

In the real world this will happen more often because big stacks are stupid, and therefore, 84% is a nice starting point for a hand you can call with but isn't the end point. You can also narrow the big stack down to some range of hands many of which have an ace in them, which makes AA much better and KK much worse.

So logically, calling with aces is almost certainly right, calling with kings is borderline at best and AK is terrible.

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i can see him pushing with just about any 2, as its correct too assuming everyone plays relatively intelligently. holla

[/ QUOTE ]

Nah, it's totally wrong to push any two, and this hand should give you a good idea why. You see the 2+2'ers out here calling with AK? Holla.

[/ QUOTE ]

never said IIII push any 2. i go take a dump, take a shower, rub one out, come back, and have my prize package. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] holla

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

Remember, we are already 92.5% to qualify. Despite the fact that we are an 81% favorite over KK, we should still fold. The best case is when villian shows AKo-A2o in which case we are a 92% favorite - but this is simply even money! Against A2s we are only a 87% favorite and therefore incorrect in calling.

I like the plan to take a shower and rub one out rather than calling...

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

The only way I'm folding AA preflop in such a situation is if someone else has called before me. In that case, one person is most likely gone, and the other person will be so high that they won't need to play a single hand to qualify, leaving it for the last 4 of you to sort out the final 3 spots. With 2 of those 4 being shortstacked, I like your odds to outlast at least one of them.

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

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Remember, we are already 92.5% to qualify.

[/ QUOTE ]
Can you please go over how you arrived at this %age, your formula appears too simplistic and pulled out of thin air. Would love to know the probability theories behind that 92.5%, because that simple stack size formula isn't valid that I can see {but hey, i'm very blind often}

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I voted fold, its kinda obvious the chances of busting out are better if you call than if you fold.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I voted fold everything. My intuition says that AA is close. I'm almost positive that KK and worse would be pretty bad there.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The biggest question is why would villain put his stack on the line for a measly 2100 in chips when there's 3 people to act behind him that can cripple his stack.


[/ QUOTE ]

The reason is that there are so many tight player there who will fold KK, some will even fold aces. What risk will you have when people willing to fold aces?

There is a huge folding equity here and small chance of getting called. 2100 chips is a quarter of the short stacks. That is a lot chips for later rounds if you lose to a short stack all in call.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

agree with CSC, I call down to QQ, except I fold AK...

why the F would villian misplay a stong hand by pushing here...

Re: Folding AA here?
 

[ QUOTE ]
agree with CSC, I call down to QQ, except I fold AK...

why the F would villian misplay a stong hand by pushing here...

[/ QUOTE ]

that's not the point. Of course you are ahead of his range if you have something like QQ. Doesn't mean that you should call. $EV and chipEV are as divergent here as possible.

Re: My 2 Cents...
 

[ QUOTE ]
So the first step is to estimate the probability that each player will make it before any of the cards are dealt. When we get down to 4 players, each has a 100% chance of qualifying (same as winning) so at any earlier point all probabilities must add up to 400%, not 100%.

To make the math easier, let's round the numbers and put them all into an equation:

(this is in the order of stacks listed in the OP)

x + .95x + 4.2x + 3.9x + 3.8x + 4x = 400%
16.85x = 400%
x is therefore about 23.75%

This means that Hero is about 92.5% to qualify while the shortest stack is about 23.75% and Villian is about 95%. This makes sense if you think about it since the short stacks are huge dogs, but they still have a chance, while Hero and the others are big favorites but not guaranteed a spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the analysis here, but is it really that accurate? For instance, it doesn't take blind size into account. I'm a little skeptical that these figures would hold up and still be accurate if the blinds were 15/30 or 5000/10000. It seems to me that the 92% figure might be a halfway decent rough estimate of your chances of winning, but I can't see it as much more than that. Certainly not as accurate as figuring pot odds with x outs or something straightforward like that...

Re: Folding AA here?
 

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$EV and chipEV are as divergent here as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I suppose it's a matter of opinion...

You have an M of around 20 here.. which is probably enough flexibility to make the final four facing two SS without resorting to calling this AI.

John Dagostino was faced with a similar play in US Poker Championship in the BB when Hoyt Corkins pushed AI in the SB with some garbage hand. We know how that tured out, so perhaps a fold here is pretty wise...

I would probably instacall AA or KK, QQ I would definitely stare down villian for a while and see how he reacts...

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I don't think people are taking into account the size of the blinds which I think is a HUGE consideration. Basically if blinds were 1/2(yes 1 dollar and 2 dollar) I think this is an easy call, is there is a LOT more play left, and I don't think Harrington's way of calculating takes this into account. I think that the smaller the blinds the better the chances for the short stacks to move up. Also if the blinds were 10/20k I think a call is also in order, as if the small stack survives when they are in the blind(I would say probably here is AT least 25% as a lot of times nobody plays, and when they do their hand is at best a 60/40 or 70/30 favorite, sometimes 80/20.) So if 1 of the short stacks survives the BB, then you will be all in your next BB.
So I believe that EVERYTHING in this hand is dependant on the blinds. 500/1k means that nobody is in trouble to completely blind off unless they wait around 4 or 5 orbits. If we assume that the short stacks are good players then they will be pushing fairly regularly. The odds of one of the big stacks picking up a hand when the short stacks push is somewhat small, and even if they pick up a hand like AK they are still only a 60/40 favorite to 76s. So I believe since the blinds are only 500/1k it allows the short stacks some room to breath and outplay some of the big stacks which could cause trouble for you.

In conclusion with blinds up to around 500/1k I call with AA and that is all.

I would FOLD AA if the blinds were 1.5k/3k, 2k/4k, 2.5k/5k, or 3k/6k. Because these are the exact blinds that really HURT the small stacks, without damaging the big stacks as much
If blinds were 5k/10k or higher, I would start calling again, with blinds between 3k/6k and 5k/10k I would have a very hard decision.

John

Re: Folding AA here?
 

I know you will probably disagree with me here nightlyraver, but I think you should try to do some simulations here with blinds of 10k/20k and see what you come up with, then do the same with 1/2. Then do it with 100/200, 4k/8k, and finally 500/1000, I don't think Harrington's equation has enough information about absolute stack size compared to the blinds to be accurate enough in this situation.

Re: Folding AA here?
 

nice analysis.