LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

I play pretty TAG. My stats are something like 16 / 4.5 / 4.0...but I do try to mix it up now and then.

$5/$10 NL

I open raise to $40 with 6h 5h in MP. The button and BB both call. I just started playing at FTP so I have no reads. We all have about $1000.

The pot is $125 and the flop comes T43 rainbow. The BB leads out for $120 and I push.

This is a very strange all in on my part. There are no believable draws. He has to be thinking "WTF? I have no idea what the hell that all in means. I cant call that without a read".

I think my folding equity is very high. Ive played like 2 hands out of the 30 since Ive been at the table.

Thoughts?

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

If you are raising 65s preflop then I think you should go ahead and raise the flop when you pick up the straight draw.

Would be helpful if you had an idea of what this guy will pot lead a small rainbow flop with and how often he calls raises PF (can he likely have a ten?).

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

iceman, couldn't you have accomplished the same with a smaller raise? like to 1.5x to 2x pot?

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

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I play pretty TAG. My stats are something like 16 / 4.5 / 4.0

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Jesus Christ...
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The pot is $125 and the flop comes T43 rainbow. The BB leads out for $120 and I push.


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I think that set/2pair wont fold here and small pair (or 10) will often fold after smaller raise anyway.

Best wishes

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

why not raise to 300 instead, that looks more like a real hand. Then check behind on the turn if you miss.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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I play pretty TAG. My stats are something like 16 / 4.5 / 4.0

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Jesus Christ...
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The pot is $125 and the flop comes T43 rainbow. The BB leads out for $120 and I push.


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I think that set/2pair wont fold here and small pair (or 10) will often fold after smaller raise anyway.

Best wishes

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, 16% VIP. I said I was tight. Most of the regular winners in my games have VIPs under 20.

You dont think he has T4, T3, or 43 do you? Of course a set isnt folding. Calling that all in with a T is pretty bad in my opinion. Besides, most people dont lead a full pot sized bet into the raiser with any of those hands.

Dont you think someone as tight as me can get away with things like this more often since I almost always have a big hand when I put big money in the pot?

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

from what i've seen at FTP this is getting called by QT+ all day

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You dont think he has T4, T3, or 43 do you? Of course a set isnt folding. Calling that all in with a T is pretty bad in my opinion.


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I dont think he has 2pair.
I mean that you are not gaining FE by you huge raise comparing to smaller raise and I cant see what else you can gain by this.

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Besides, most people dont lead a full pot sized bet into the raiser with any of those hands.


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Many people have learnt to lead into preflop raiser with sets.

Best wishes

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
FTP

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a newbie. What does FTP stands for ?

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

full tilt poker

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
from what i've seen at FTP this is getting called by QT+ all day

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If theyre going to call that with QT then Im going to get rich there.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

iceman5,


I like the play. When you push, your opponent is going to put you on AA or a missed AK, depending on HIS style of play. I think you have enoug FE to make the play worthwile.

With regards to bet size, I like the push. I also like the smaller raise. When I do that, I can either check behind or fire a second barrell on the turn. The only thing I worry about with the smaller raise is someone getting spunky with thier crappy pair and coming over the top on the flop. Both ways work for me.

I believe your tightness preflop will help you steal pots post flop. With your PFR at 4%, nobody is putting you on 65s in this situation. They are going to automaticaly put you on an overpair. The only question is, can they beat it?

nh

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

This play is [censored] retarded...do the math.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

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I mean that you are not gaining FE by you huge raise comparing to smaller raise and I cant see what else you can gain by this.

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I don't think this is correct.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This play is [censored] retarded...do the math.

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You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time. He may or may not fold enough to make the play worth while. Im wasting my time on this board. There are way to many immature 20 years olds like you here and Im fed up with it.

Later

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

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[ QUOTE ]
This play is [censored] retarded...do the math.

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You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time. He may or may not fold enough to make the play worth while. Im wasting my time on this board. There are way to many immature 20 years olds like you here and Im fed up with it.

Later

[/ QUOTE ]

If you don't like these boards, then don't post. Doesn't that make more sense than saying you are wasting your time and then to continue to do it?

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
why not raise to 300 instead, that looks more like a real hand. Then check behind on the turn if you miss.

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Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time. He may or may not fold enough to make the play worth while. Im wasting my time on this board. There are way to many immature 20 years olds like you here and Im fed up with it.


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Iceman, calm down. Your posts have tendency to become flame wars. Some retards responses happen just live them alone.
Your play was little strange and too many people (to me too) its seems simple bad. I may be wrong or you may be wrong and we all may have nice discussion about it. Just live flamers alone...

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar på:</font><hr />
You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time.

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31% against 45s, 26% against a set. What else is calling? AA/KK might call. They are certainly possible but not very likely given the flat call.

Isn't the point of this play that they know how tight you are? So when you push the flop after raising preflop they think you have AA at the very least, more probably TT. You've just sat down in this case, so you could be totally crazy for all they know.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

I like it.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time.

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31% against 45s, 26% against a set. What else is calling? AA/KK might call. They are certainly possible but not very likely given the flat call.

Isn't the point of this play that they know how tight you are? So when you push the flop after raising preflop they think you have AA at the very least, more probably TT. You've just sat down in this case, so you could be totally crazy for all they know.

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The point is that they dont have a friggin clue what I have. This play is very out of character.

Hes not callng that with 45s. Middle pair? No way
He'll call with a set for sure, but like you said...what else is he calling with. My fold equity is HUGE.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

Oh, sorry. Not 45s. 34s.

Yes, I'm sure it's very out of character, but since you just sat down they don't know anything about your character, right? I'm not saying it's wrong, just questioning it (especially preflop).

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
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This play is [censored] retarded...do the math.

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You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time. He may or may not fold enough to make the play worth while. Im wasting my time on this board. There are way to many immature 20 years olds like you here and Im fed up with it.

Later

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If you don't like these boards, then don't post. Doesn't that make more sense than saying you are wasting your time and then to continue to do it?

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I had already cut way back and may just quit altogether. Its just impossible for me to post a hand and have a normal discussion (whether we agree or not), without some idiot (s) piping in. Yeah, I could ignore it, but Im fed up with it.

The knowledge Ive gained from this board in the past 2 months has been greatly overshadowed by the BS Ive gotten for no apparent reason and enough is enough.

Obviously, most of you guys couldnt care if I post or not so you wont miss me, but eventually BS like this will drive all the good players away and you'll be left with a board like RGP.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, sorry. Not 45s. 34s.

Yes, I'm sure it's very out of character, but since you just sat down they don't know anything about you're character, right? I'm not saying it's wrong, just questioning it (especially preflop).

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When I sort thru all my hands in PT....raising with suited connectors (98s-54s) is the 3rd highest win rate of all hands. Only behind AA and KK.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

Yeees, but that's when you have a tight image to take advantage of.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This play is [censored] retarded...do the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time. He may or may not fold enough to make the play worth while. Im wasting my time on this board. There are way to many immature 20 years olds like you here and Im fed up with it.

Later

[/ QUOTE ]hi iceman.
i didnt read the whole thread, but im here to say it is completely not debatable that you played the flop very well. period. you played it good. there is no room for debate here.
calling on the flop is another option and is not a bad one. if you miss on the turn, you may be able to get a better read... if you think hes weak on the turn, you just move allin there. if you think hes got a set, you can fold and save money... its also nice if he bets 180 on a blank and you are now sure he has a T abd you move in as this play will win you another 180 (unless he makes an insane call).

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

BTW/ waiting for the turn is also sweet, bc those times when he makes the call AND your river him and drag, you will look like a psycho to weak/mediocre players who just saw you move in with with 6high and one card to come for a large bet. you will use this to your advantage later.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
This play is [censored] retarded...do the math.

[/ QUOTE ]

You know what? [censored] You!

You do the math, moron. When he calls, I win 1/3 of the time. He may or may not fold enough to make the play worth while. Im wasting my time on this board. There are way to many immature 20 years olds like you here and Im fed up with it.

Later

[/ QUOTE ]

Buy yourself an ice cream son, you've earned it. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

Iceman,
I don't know how I feel about this play. I put the villian on JJ or QQ, and he's curious if he's good or not, he's oop and so I doubt he reraises you pf with either hand. A set doesn't lead into a pfr on this board, maybe with a flush draw he will cause he doesn't want you to check behind with a missed AK giving a free card. Pushing might get QQ to fold where just raising a little will get him to call, and then get committed (in his mind, not actually "math wise") I say make the play, if you get called, at least you've loosened up your image a little bit. Bad play, no imo, good play no, imo again, an ok play to do once in a while, ok, I'll buy it, I fold my QQ when you do that, and I play QQ just like he did.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

sorry for the flamers man, yeah they are annoying, it's really annoying when a 1 penny 2 penny player says you're a moron for 3 bet bluffing or something to that degree. and that comment about do the math, he's an idiot, ignore him, any NL play knows sometimes we do things even though it's against "the math." For example, If I reraise opponet with str8 and flush draw, and he 3 bets pushes vs. me HUGE, and I know he's tight=set, maybe I don't have the math, but I have to show a willingness to gamble especially! in 6 max where I play.

ignore the idiots, think about them next time you buy a steak dinner with their money

Re: LAG hand from TAG player.....good or bad?
 

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This play is very out of character.

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How do they know that?

The real beauty of this hand is those times you get called, and others see your hand, especially if you suck out.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

Alright.... I'll do the math.

Pot before Push: $245
Price to Push: $960
Win if Called and Outdarw: $1045

x = probability of a fold

When he folds: x * $245

When he calls:
vs set: 3.4:1
vs overpair or top pair: 1.74:1
vs. two pair (only 34 makes sense): 1.84:1

Since you're gonna be called by a set way more often than the other two, let's round it to about 3:1 or so against you improving if called.

THUS:
When his hand holds up: (100-x) * (3/4) * -$960
When you outdraw: (100-x) * (1/4) * $1045

SO.....
(x * $245) + ((100-x) * (1/4) * $1045) + ((100-x) * (3/4) * -$960)
245x + 26125 - 261.25x - 72000 + 720x
703.75x - 18925 = 0
x = 18925/703.75 ~ 26


Thus, villian must fold this hand only 26% of the time, given the above assumptions.

Q. E. D.

I think that it is fairly likely that you can fold out villian more than one time in 4 here, so the play should be marginally +EV, depending on how strong his lead into a tight player typically is. You'd have to analyze his hand range for that, and I don't wanna.

Furthermore,a s mentioned elsewhere, if you really do play as solid a game as it seems you do, this kind of play against players whom you frequently play against should have some pretty nice metagame purposes.

Against players who you don't know, and who don't know you, and whom you aren't sure you'll be playing much against in the future? Make a normal raise on the flop, and play it from there.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

Jim, that avatar is very disturbing.

I actually thought I need more folding equtiy than 26%. After seeing that, I like the play even more.

The guy called with JJ and I caught a 7 and won the hand.
Calling with JJ there is pretty dump in my opinion. He cant beat AA, KK, QQ or TT. Would anyone push there with an unimproved AK? Highly unlikely.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

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Would anyone push there with an unimproved AK? Highly unlikely.

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Far more likely than someone pushing with TT. I think pushing dry flops like these, in position, after raising PF is just going to look like a bluff too often to work as one.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

I'm going to answer seriously for a change.

Firstly, I did the equations independently and got a value of 65%.

Secondly, everyone has said how great this play is. It's stupid. Here's why: It looks like a bluff. An overpair does not push that flop. A set of tens does not push that flop. It looks like AK or an underpair getting desperate. I think your fold equity is far less than you believe because of the oddness of the push. When I first saw it, I decided I would definitely look it up, hence my comment. Given that you need 65% anyway, I think this play is very -EV.

To those that said it's an image play, calling all your [censored] chips with the nut low is an image play too.
This is a question of EV, and where it's marginal you can say it's an image play. In this case I do not believe it is anywhere near marginal.

Ice, I suspect the reason you lashed out so strongly at my comment is because you don't even know how to do the math for situations like this. If you want to play high stakes and become a lag, you need to either learn, or stop pretending that you know what you're doing. I say this for your own good and the good of your future 'backers'.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

[ QUOTE ]
Alright.... I'll do the math.

Pot before Push: $245
Price to Push: $960
Win if Called and Outdarw: $1045

x = probability of a fold

When he folds: x * $245

When he calls:
vs set: 3.4:1
vs overpair or top pair: 1.74:1
vs. two pair (only 34 makes sense): 1.84:1

[/ QUOTE ]
Um... vs set he's ~2.7:1 against. Your overpair/two pr #s are pretty close.
[ QUOTE ]

Since you're gonna be called by a set way more often than the other two, let's round it to about 3:1 or so against you improving if called.


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I actually rounded it to ~2:1, assuming JJ/AT/set/logical 2 pr calls.

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THUS:
When his hand holds up: (100-x) * (3/4) * -$960
When you outdraw: (100-x) * (1/4) * $1045

SO.....
(x * $245) + ((100-x) * (1/4) * $1045) + ((100-x) * (3/4) * -$960)
245x + 26125 - 261.25x - 72000 + 720x
703.75x - 18925 = 0
x = 18925/703.75 ~ 26


Thus, villian must fold this hand only 26% of the time, given the above assumptions.


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I don't know what you did wrong, but this is off by about a factor of 2. The number I calc'ed was ~53%, which is pretty damn high IMO.

Though his required folding % is pretty high, I think this play is fine for metagame purposes. I do think that this will get called ALOT by hands you wouldn't normally expect because if I am correct, this is at a pretty new site, and I think players will look at your move as a draw or AK bluff. I still stick by my original recommendation (well agreeing with Jonny) of raising to ~$300, and then taking a free card.

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

[ QUOTE ]
Jim, that avatar is very disturbing.

I actually thought I need more folding equtiy than 26%. After seeing that, I like the play even more.

The guy called with JJ and I caught a 7 and won the hand.
Calling with JJ there is pretty dump in my opinion. He cant beat AA, KK, QQ or TT. Would anyone push there with an unimproved AK? Highly unlikely.

[/ QUOTE ]

but he had an overpair!

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

[ QUOTE ]

245x + 26125 - 261.25x - 72000 + 720x
703.75x - 18925 = 0

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like that should be 45875

x = 45875/703.75 ~ 65

I think 3:1 is a little gloomy, so I don't think he has to fold that much, but he still has to fold a lot. (unless I screwed something up)

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math
 

[ QUOTE ]
Firstly, I did the equations independently and got a value of 65%

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You are right, Big_Jim is mistaken.


The simplest formula is

F = (B - E) / (Pf - E)

where

F = break-even probability of opponent folding
B = amount of hero's bet (or, if raising, amount of call + raise)
Pf = pot size when opponent folds, including hero's last bet
E = equity in pot when called (in terms of $s, not %)

Re: LAG hand from TAG player: Do the Math (Fix my Typo...)
 

Thanks to those who pointed out my errors....

I thought that the number seemed pretty damn low....

Let's try this again, but let's use 2:1 for the odds of improving, since it seems more reasonable...

(x * $245) + ((100-x) * (1/3) * $1045) + ((100-x) * (2/3) * -$960)
245x + 34833 - 348.33x - 64000 + 640x
536.67x - 29167 = 0
x = 29167/536.67 = 54.35%

Now he needs to fold quite a bit more often...

Considering his lead out typically represents a fairly strong hand, this play probably dips into -EV.

Sorry for the snafu earlier.