close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

this post is mainly about the river but feel free to critique other streets.

48/7/.68 limps MP 39/20/1.2 raises CO i call in sb w/ T8ss

bb folds 3 ways to the flop

7s5s2d. i check MP bets CO raises i cold call MP calls.

turn is Jc check check bet call fold.

river is 8h.

action?

-Barron

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

On the river I would certainly think that a 1.2 AF is capable of betting AK et all on the flop/turn. Showing this down, without any further info, is probably a must. Without any other info on the villian, I'd probably check/call and let him bet his nothing again. If I know he won't raise with a hand thats worse than mine, but will call with hands that are I'd lead the river. Against an unknown, however, i'm just checking and calling.

I think its important to note, however, that your flop cold call looks a lot like a flush draw (fancy that). Whether or not that would effect villians river betting strategy I can't say, but its probably worth considering.

I like the rest of the hand. With the ultra L/P in their I doubt you're taking this pot down without improving, you may as well let him hang around.

I think I find a fold preflop though, too tight?

lf

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

bet and fold to a raise?? IF u really think hes got it..
id put him on something higher like AK AQ...slightly a J...but if he raises he MIGHT have a higher PP..but im still calling it....if u dont wanna risk that raise then check call...but im betting...

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

the river choice imo is between betting and c'ring.

-Barron

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
the river choice imo is between betting and c'ring.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]checkraising? cmon man... LOL.

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

48/7/.68 limps MP 39/20/1.2

could someone explain this. i'm not a PT user.

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the river choice imo is between betting and c'ring.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]checkraising? cmon man... LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain your "lol" using his hand range and stats.

-Barron

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

I'm not a fan of the preflop call. A check/call if fine on this river. You know you CAN be too aggressive on the river you know.

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
48/7/.68 limps MP 39/20/1.2

could someone explain this. i'm not a PT user.

[/ QUOTE ]

somebody link him to the PT explanation link...cant find it.

Barron

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the river choice imo is between betting and c'ring.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]checkraising? cmon man... LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain your "lol" using his hand range and stats.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]why dont you just say he is a psychopath in the OP (if thats the case)?...
i dont use PT, so when you dont call him anything but "CO", i assume he is average higher limit internet player.

RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

i bet for value rather than checkraising for value.

he called with 76o.


im very surprised

-people would fold T8ss in the sb vs. two players this bad.
-people think c'ring here is a bad option and that c'calling is better than betting. there is 1 overcard, my hand is so likely to be good vs. this guy its not even funny. the question is whether he has a 7 or a 5 and bets and calls a raise more than he calls the simple bet. in teh end my greed didn't overtake my logic and i bet...but i think c'ring is a very very close second with c'calling being way down the list.

-Barron

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the river choice imo is between betting and c'ring.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]checkraising? cmon man... LOL.

[/ QUOTE ]

explain your "lol" using his hand range and stats.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]why dont you just say he is a psychopath in the OP (if thats the case)?...
i dont use PT, so when you dont call him anything but "CO", i assume he is average higher limit internet player.

[/ QUOTE ]

i have to ask you, why make a derogatory post about "lol'ing" my riv c'r option if you dont even understand the original assumptions of my original post???

how can you play higher limit limit holdem w/o pokertracker?

-Barron

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

This seems like an obvious bet... he will call with AK or AQ that he would've checked behind, and he'll be hard pressed to find a raise IMO

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[quote
how can you play higher limit limit holdem w/o pokertracker?

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have it. I seem to do ok.

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[quote
how can you play higher limit limit holdem w/o pokertracker?

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't have it. I seem to do ok.

[/ QUOTE ]

multiply ok by 1.1 at the very least. spend $55, buy it, get playerview or whatever. you'll do better. but i'll repost for those non users.

-Barron

player descriptions...
 

for non PT users.

the villians are both very loose and very agressive.

-Barron

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

What would you have done if he had raised you? Called? Cause a guy with his stats won't even blink as he raises you with a worse hand on the river.

This is just one reason I don't like your river bet. Getting raised here would suck. And why exactly are you afraid of checking to him? Do you think he'll check behind with any worse hand? Come on. He's a LAG, he's HU, and he can practically feel the chips getting pushed his way. In his mind, he's one bet away from getting you to fold. I'd much rather check and induce a bluff from whatever he has than bet and

(a) risk having to make an ugly call if he raises

or

(b) see him fold his worthless hand when he realizes the bluff is over

So here's a question for you. Do you think you're not being even a little bit results-oriented in your post-hand analysis on this one?

As for preflop, your call is not terrible, but my suspicion is that it's -EV.

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
What would you have done if he had raised you? Called? Cause a guy with his stats won't even blink as he raises you with a worse hand on the river.

This is just one reason I don't like your river bet. Getting raised here would suck.

[/ QUOTE ]

your statements are contradictory. and i woudl have not blinked before i called his raise.

[ QUOTE ]


And why exactly are you afraid of checking to him? Do you think he'll check behind with any worse hand? Come on. He's a LAG, he's HU, and he can practically feel the chips getting pushed his way. In his mind, he's one bet away from getting you to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

and after i raise his bet he'll think "oh i gotta see this"

[ QUOTE ]


I'd much rather check and induce a bluff from whatever he has than bet and

(a) risk having to make an ugly call if he raises

[/ QUOTE ]

your comment above and my response state its nowhere near an ugly call.

[ QUOTE ]

or

(b) see him fold his worthless hand when he realizes the bluff is over



[/ QUOTE ]

or call with K high, any pair, even a worse 8...i still think checking with the intention of calling here is by far and away the worst option.

[ QUOTE ]

So here's a question for you. Do you think you're not being even a little bit results-oriented in your post-hand analysis on this one?

[/ QUOTE ]

maybe, but the more i think about it, the more i think im not being reesults oriented.

[ QUOTE ]

As for preflop, your call is not terrible, but my suspicion is that it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

your suspicion is wrong.

-Barron

EDIT: based on your response here id say asking you about poker coaching isn't my most + ev option [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: based on your response here id say asking you about poker coaching isn't my most + ev option [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL.

What makes you think any of your responses are right?

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: based on your response here id say asking you about poker coaching isn't my most + ev option [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL.

What makes you think any of your responses are right?

[/ QUOTE ]

not about right. about consistency and logic in approach to the analysis.

-Barron

EDIT: would you care to rebut any of the points i made or clarify the contradictory ones you made?

EDIT: as a preemptive rebuttal to your -ev suspision about T8ss vs. these idiots in the sb:

Pokerroom 10 handed ev stats for T8s:
T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08

the bolded is the sb. since you lose -.25 by doing nothing. playing T8s here is +ev.

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What would you have done if he had raised you? Called? Cause a guy with his stats won't even blink as he raises you with a worse hand on the river.

This is just one reason I don't like your river bet. Getting raised here would suck.

[/ QUOTE ]
your your statements are contradictory. and i woudl have not blinked before i called his raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
What is contradictory about this? The fact that he's more likely to bluff raise you doesn't mean that he is bluff raising you. You still need to decide that, and your call won't be a pleasant one. If you think it will be, OK, I'm not going to argue with you till I'm blue in the face.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

And why exactly are you afraid of checking to him? Do you think he'll check behind with any worse hand? Come on. He's a LAG, he's HU, and he can practically feel the chips getting pushed his way. In his mind, he's one bet away from getting you to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
and after i raise his bet he'll think "oh i gotta see this"


[/ QUOTE ]
Maybe. I haven't even mentioned all the times you just put 2 bets in with a worse hand.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'd much rather check and induce a bluff from whatever he has than bet and

(a) risk having to make an ugly call if he raises

[/ QUOTE ]

your comment above and my response state its nowhere near an ugly call.

[ QUOTE ]

or

(b) see him fold his worthless hand when he realizes the bluff is over



[/ QUOTE ]
or call with K high, any pair, even a worse 8...i still think checking with the intention of calling here is by far and away the worst option.


[/ QUOTE ]
Geez man.....you accuse me of not rebutting your reasoning, but then you offer this gem. Do you not agree that he'll bluff bet all the hands you mentioned anyway?

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

So here's a question for you. Do you think you're not being even a little bit results-oriented in your post-hand analysis on this one?

[/ QUOTE ]
maybe, but the more i think about it, the more i think im not being reesults oriented.


[/ QUOTE ]
Because........

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

As for preflop, your call is not terrible, but my suspicion is that it's -EV.

[/ QUOTE ]
your suspicion is wrong.


[/ QUOTE ]
Because.........

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

its late but in response to the most pressing issues here:

he bets and calls a c'r with A7s, any 7, 66/44, any 5, any pair almost every time.

he bets his bluffs and folds them to the c'r.

he bets his monsters and 3bets my c'r.

he calls A high which he might check behind.

he folds his bluffs toa bet.

with these considerations a c'r is worse than betting. but worth considering. check calling is still imo the worst option b/c he checks behind hands hed call and its not made up enough by the snapping off of bluffs you do here by checking. given the information available in the hand the most valuable river action is betting. then c'ring, then calling.

i dont like the c'r as much as a bet but posted it b/c ITS WORTH CONSIDERING as you should all options. i posted this b/c i thought it was interesting.

as to the pf call this is such the easiest call ever that you are hurting your poker coaching business by arguing its validity.

T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08

again, bold is the sb, 10 handed ev stats from pokerroom's pokerschool. this is in the hands of an average player who loses more. but its compensated by being overall in looser more passive low limit games. but its such a clear clear call losing -.25bbs from doing nothing (folding) to losing -.13bbs from playing that you better produce some serious evidence to convince me or anybody i know and have talked to who agree with me to follow your advice and fold this pf.

in closing, i think betting for value is the best option. check calling is only better than check folding since you gain the bet from the bluff anyway w/ a c'r with a hand that he'd fold fi you value bet. downside of c'r is the threat of a 3bet which he'd do w/ 2 pair and which i REALLY REALLY hate to call.

pf call is really really a no brainer.

poker coaching is probably a better use of your sb playing time if you're folding this there.

-Barron

public apology...
 

i just recieved a very good, well worded and intelligent PM from nightwish.

id like to take this time to publicly apologize to him for the poor show ive displayed in this thread.

sorry, and i'll make an effort to make sure it wont happen again.

-Barron

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08


[/ QUOTE ]
Does this figure not come mostly from completing in the sb in 10-handed games at the lower limits? This hand is 4-handed at a high limit and you are calling a raise, which is a completely different situation. Or am I missing something?

Re: public apology...
 

I really like check/raising.

You get the same amount from bluffs and an extra bet when he calls with worse hands (which is going to be a wide range considering his stats).

Also, I don't think he will 3-bet without something that has you stomped. He might even just call a check/raise with two pair or something.

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08


[/ QUOTE ]
Does this figure not come mostly from completing in the sb in 10-handed games at the lower limits? This hand is 4-handed at a high limit and you are calling a raise, which is a completely different situation. Or am I missing something?

[/ QUOTE ]

this figure comes from every single limit at pokerroom over millions upon millions of hands where any player got T8s where there were 10 people dealt cards.

this includes times its folded to the button and is now HU.

this includes times where everybody limps and sb completes.

this includes times its raised UTG and a bad player calls 1.5 or so sbs cold in the sb.

it inlcludes the times its raised, 3 bet and then capped and the bad player calls all bets cold 4 handed in teh sb w/ T8s.

it includes everything.

my situation was a fish limped. another fish raised the first fish. their hand ranges are extremely large here. T8s is a large favorite vs. their ranges and postflop ability.

-Barron

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

I think it's a clear check and call situation. CO could easily have you beat with an overpair. Or he could be bluffing with a bigger flush draw.

He has shown a lot of strength, and I can't see your pair of 8s as justifying a value bet into him. Nor is it weak enough to bluff. So check and call.

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

i fold preflop
i would be leading at this flop
check call the river

Re: player descriptions...
 

I seem to have a hard time understanding how these numbers interact. I would think that 48/7/.68 is very loose but pretty passive, and 39/20/1.2 is very agressive before the flop, but only average aggressive after.

Re: player descriptions...
 

[ QUOTE ]
the villians are both very loose and very agressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't 48/7/.68 very loose and somewhat passive preflop, and very passive post flop?

~ Rick

PS I use PT

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

Check raising is a lot better then betting but IMHO is not as good as check calling...I hate calling his 3bet and i feel that i must showdown this hand in any case.

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

[ QUOTE ]
this figure comes from every single limit at pokerroom over millions upon millions of hands where any player got T8s where there were 10 people dealt cards.

this includes times its folded to the button and is now HU.

this includes times where everybody limps and sb completes.

this includes times its raised UTG and a bad player calls 1.5 or so sbs cold in the sb.

it inlcludes the times its raised, 3 bet and then capped and the bad player calls all bets cold 4 handed in teh sb w/ T8s.

it includes everything.

my situation was a fish limped. another fish raised the first fish. their hand ranges are extremely large here. T8s is a large favorite vs. their ranges and postflop ability.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
T8 s -0.13 -0.16 -0.02 -0.07 0.02 0.01 0.04 0.03 0.06 0.08


[/ QUOTE ]

So from your logic I would my choice is to reraise or fold If I was on button because it averges .08. I am not sure if the pokerroom average is good to analize this situation.

other hands in the sb: Q4s -.19, JTo -.2, 97o -.22, Also in the BB no hand makes less than -.50 should you call evey raise in the BB.

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

48/7/.68 limps MP 39/20/1.2

can we get a breakdown of these #'s, it seems like many of us dont fully understand them

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

Havne'y read what people wrote, but I don't agree at all with what you say everyone else thinks.

1) I'm not even thinking about folding preflop.
2) I think the river is a clear bet. IMO betting is FAR superior to c/r'ing or cc'ing. I do not agree that cr'ing is a close second though. I think you wiff on it too much (by either checking behind or not getting called)

Re: RESULTS and my surprised comments.
 

I think you overrate the chances of wiffing on the CR when you dealing with 55\20 or whatever it was LAGs...

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
the river choice imo is between betting and c'ring.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm struggling to see any merit to a c/r. He'd have to be a lot worse than his stats indiciate to call the river raise with anything that doesn't beat your hand. I just don't see the 2nd bet being +EV if you put it in first.

Now, if you bet, and he raises, calling that 2nd bet might be +EV if he's capable of bluff raising. But you said he was a 1.2 right? thats not exactly maniacal. FWIW, I don't think he ever folds a better hand to a c/r.

lf

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

[ QUOTE ]
48/7/.68 limps MP 39/20/1.2

can we get a breakdown of these #'s, it seems like many of us dont fully understand them

[/ QUOTE ]

Look at Gabe's response, he sums it up pretty well.

Re: close (meaningless?) river decision...
 

Barron, the read you're giving us on the CO in your replies contradicts the stats you gave in the original post. As Gabe posted, he looks loose-aggressive preflop, but only moderately aggressive postflop from his stats.

This is a good post though, I wouldn't have thought of CR'ing in this situation, but I do see that it has merit.

Re: public apology...
 

[ QUOTE ]
i just recieved a very good, well worded and intelligent PM from nightwish.

id like to take this time to publicly apologize to him for the poor show ive displayed in this thread.

sorry, and i'll make an effort to make sure it wont happen again.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]
Thanks. Apology accepted.

Re: player descriptions...
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the villians are both very loose and very agressive.

[/ QUOTE ]

Isn't 48/7/.68 very loose and somewhat passive preflop, and very passive post flop?


[/ QUOTE ]
Sort of. You're right about the preflop, but the problem is that the postflop AF cannot be viewed independently of the preflop numbers.

Let me give you an example. Let's say you have someone with 15/7/0.68 stats. I'm assuming we'd all agree he's weak-tight because his range of starting hands is fairly small (that's OK) but he fails to extract money postflop when he has the best hand (which will be pretty often because he's usually coming in with the best hand).

Now compare him to someone with 48/7/0.68 stats. He's just as likely to bet, raise, whatever postflop as the weak-tight guy. But unlike the weak-tight guy, this loose guy is playing almost half of his hands. So he's far more likely to be betting and raising with weak hands or total garbage than the weak-tight guy.

The end result is that the 48/7/0.68 is actually loose aggressive, both pre and post flop.