A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

Villain seems on the tightish side but I don't have much of a read as I just sat down.

The question is pretty obvious...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (5.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero???

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

Yes I'd 3-bet, I don't think its that thin either.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Villain seems on the tightish side but I don't have much of a read as I just sat down.

The question is pretty obvious...

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, Hero checks.

Flop: (2.33 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.16 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls.

River: (5.16 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero???

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ is very likely here.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

Ugh.

He could've simply caught his king, with KQ/KJ.

However, it's hard to put him on a range, really, since his flop bet was quite likely just a stab.

I don't think I could find a fold if I faced a cap (and QJ isn't out of the question at all, and meanwhile even K9 can't be ruled out), so I would probably just call.

I'm not claiming this is necessarily best. It's just probably what I would do.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

My major problem here is that I realized that if I get capped there is such a tiny chance I'm winning here. This is an odd hand where, given the action, the strength indicated by a river raise, a river three-bet, and a river cap are all very different.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My major problem here is that I realized that if I get capped there is such a tiny chance I'm winning here. This is an odd hand where, given the action, the strength indicated by a river raise, a river three-bet, and a river cap are all very different.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

A 3-bet may be best, but I just don't think I could fold to a cap.

And if I couldn't fold to a cap, a 3-bet might not be best anymore.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

I may be in the minority, but I don't 3-bet that.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
My major problem here is that I realized that if I get capped there is such a tiny chance I'm winning here. This is an odd hand where, given the action, the strength indicated by a river raise, a river three-bet, and a river cap are all very different.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow...

A tightish villain limps utg. A tightish villain bet the flop and calls the raise. OK. Villain, with a hand worse than 2nd pair, ought have a hard time calling the turn without a made hand or QJ, specifically (J9?).

I just don't get a 3 bet, here.

A river 3 bet has no fold equity (other than J9). I think your lost here, villain holding KT, K9 or QJ.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

A river 3 bet has no fold equity

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you mention fold equity. If we're 3-betting, it's for value.

This is rather odd though. If we 3-bet, we're pretty much hoping he has KQ, KJ, or T9s. I don't think these are likely enough, and the very last thing I'd want to do is put in 4 bets with this hand. So I think we're good for a call.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
This is an odd hand where, given the action, the strength indicated by a river raise, a river three-bet, and a river cap are all very different.

[/ QUOTE ]

But the river cap means you're fuct.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

A river 3 bet has no fold equity

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure why you mention fold equity. If we're 3-betting, it's for value.

This is rather odd though. If we 3-bet, we're pretty much hoping he has KQ, KJ, or T9s. I don't think these are likely enough, and the very last thing I'd want to do is put in 4 bets with this hand. So I think we're good for a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mention FE because 1 reason why the OP MIGHT consider 3 betting (I say might) is if he has some FE. I don;t see FE so therefore he must be 3 betting for value. I don't see the value in the 3 bet. Our choices then become call or, dare I say it, fold.

OK... I going to say it, I would fold. Beat me up. This is anti-forum blasphemic, girlie, grow-some-balls, you're-gonna-get-the-crap bluffed outta you logic. But on a hand reading basis... OP seems to me to be lost, here. If he wants to call for metagame reasons then fine.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
OK... I going to say it, I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You see Hero has 2 pair here right?

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK... I going to say it, I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You see Hero has 2 pair here right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I see that Villain has called down to the river so far. Why is he raising the river? Did he call the flop and turn with no pair or no OESD?

What do you see as villain's likely holdings?

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Did he call the flop and turn with no pair or no OESD?


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

I think you'll see QJ most often--yes, I know this beats us--but KJ and KQ enough to make this a very easy call.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did he call the flop and turn with no pair or no OESD?


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell good is that statement?

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
My major problem here is that I realized that if I get capped there is such a tiny chance I'm winning here. This is an odd hand where, given the action, the strength indicated by a river raise, a river three-bet, and a river cap are all very different.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree.

A 3-bet may be best, but I just don't think I could fold to a cap.

And if I couldn't fold to a cap, a 3-bet might not be best anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yea, I'd think exactly the same as what Nick C said. Also, 3 bet is for value and please don't fold the river.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

3-bet. Just bet that flop and flops like it.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

I think a big factor that hasn't been mentioned is the rank of the two middle cards. Villian is essentially unkown. KT/K9 could very possibly be limping hands UTG for this unknown player.

I think you need to just call here. If the other cards on the board were lower than your second pair I think it would be closer to a value 3-bet.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Did he call the flop and turn with no pair or no OESD?


[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe.

[/ QUOTE ]

What the hell good is that statement?

[/ QUOTE ]

It seems like you don't think it's at all possible. My answer of "maybe" is saying that it is. Maybe. It's plenty good if you'd think about it and stop being so narrow.

I expect to see KQ, KJ, T9s, or a bluff often enough to call for 8:1.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

I don't understand why your not leading that flop. I call the river and expect to see a strong made hand fairly often and a straight sometimes. - A 3 bet is fine and for value if the villian does not have it in him to cap with less than the nuts.

when HU on the flop you should be leading alot of your hands except for the 20% BEST (c/r with those) and the 20% WORST c/f with those. Especially with the uncoordinated nature that the villian is so unlikely to have hit. Your c/r has emotionally committed him to that pot.

Another question - this 20% rule is from HEPFAP HUSH section any one have any other times they c/r a flop HU?

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

I probably call the river (because I am a wuss) but a three-bet seems like a better decision. QJ is possible, but without a solid read I have to think that this is likely to be more likely to be KQ/KJ...

(A fitting ennding: Villain calls and shows you that hand that you don't want to let your friends no you're playing?)

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think a big factor that hasn't been mentioned is the rank of the two middle cards. Villian is essentially unkown. KT/K9 could very possibly be limping hands UTG for this unknown player.

I think you need to just call here. If the other cards on the board were lower than your second pair I think it would be closer to a value 3-bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was mentioned earlier [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] by me.

I will say it again... Unless villain is a blufftard, his river raise beats hero's KK77 (though T9 being counterfeited was some thing that I missed originally).

Can someone help me understand the logical argumnent that I appear to be missing?

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
OK... I going to say it, I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

You see Hero has 2 pair here right?

[/ QUOTE ]

I see that Villain has called down to the river so far. Why is he raising the river? Did he call the flop and turn with no pair or no OESD?

What do you see as villain's likely holdings?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think KQ/KJ are possible... even 89s... there are many non-pair hands here we could beat. Some people love their over cards... (particularly when they pick up a gutshot on the turn). Do you think there is less than a 12% chance that you are ahead? Without a very good read, a fold is nuts (and way worse than a call).

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
QJ is possible, but without a solid read I have to think that this is likely to be more likely to be KQ/KJ

[/ QUOTE ]
KJ is probably the most likely hand here, w/ QJ a close 2nd (QJ is just less likely to be played UTG). I don't imagine you're looking at KT very often since only a total wuss would call to the river with KT.

You'd have to be ahead about 2/3 of the time to 3-bet, unless you're willing to fold to a cap (which is not unreasonable, IMO). I would guess you're ahead a lot, say slightly less than 50%, but not enough to raise.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think KQ/KJ are possible... even 89s... there are many non-pair hands here we could beat. Some people love their over cards... (particularly when they pick up a gutshot on the turn). Do you think there is less than a 12% chance that you are ahead? Without a very good read, a fold is nuts (and way worse than a call).

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks. I get it (I guess). I suspect, and this very well be a leak, that I tend to give villains too much credit (especially, if reasonably tight). I need to think more about this.

And to clarify... I would sooner fold then 3 bet the river. Call is OK. Sometimes I type bad.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I will say it again... Unless villain is a blufftard, his river raise beats hero's KK77 (though T9 being counterfeited was some thing that I missed originally).

Can someone help me understand the logical argumnent that I appear to be missing?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I am villain and I have KQ or KJ, I am calling the turn with my overcards and gut-shot, getting 4:1 on 10 outs.

Since I expected that these 10 outs are clean, I'm going to raise the river when I hit. Given W's flop c/r, I put him on a T or 7, and no way do I expect that his kicker kills my outs.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]

If I am villain and I have KQ or KJ, I am calling the turn with my overcards and gut-shot, getting 4:1 on 10 outs.

Since I expected that these 10 outs are clean, I'm going to raise the river when I hit. Given W's flop c/r, I put him on a T or 7, and no way do I expect that his kicker kills my outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look... I don't see KJ, KQ as limping hands UTG. I may very well be wrong. KTs, K9s, seem more probable to me.

Probable limping hands that could play thru the turn as villain played include

KQ?, KJ?, KTs, K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, QTs

You ought not pull out the only hands that make your argument for your case. KQ and KJ are the least likely, IMHO, hands for villain, though they are possible.

Again, my math sucks.. I mean sucks. But my gut tells me that we are behind to the likely range of hands that villain may have.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

I would only call his raise.

- Jim

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
KQ?, KJ?, KTs, K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, QTs

You ought not pull out the only hands that make your argument for your case.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not exactly sure what OP means by "villian is on the tightish side" but tightish players don't limp UTG with stuff like K9, T9, and QT. They do limp with KJ and often they limp with KQ, especially offsuited.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
KQ?, KJ?, KTs, K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, QTs

You ought not pull out the only hands that make your argument for your case.

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not exactly sure what OP means by "villian is on the tightish side" but tightish players don't limp UTG with stuff like K9, T9, and QT. They do limp with KJ and often they limp with KQ, especially offsuited.

[/ QUOTE ]

please note the suitedness of my post. You don't limp QTs, QJs, T9s? I don't limp K9s or KTs but it is not inconcievable.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If I am villain and I have KQ or KJ, I am calling the turn with my overcards and gut-shot, getting 4:1 on 10 outs.

Since I expected that these 10 outs are clean, I'm going to raise the river when I hit. Given W's flop c/r, I put him on a T or 7, and no way do I expect that his kicker kills my outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Look... I don't see KJ, KQ as limping hands UTG. I may very well be wrong. KTs, K9s, seem more probable to me.

Probable limping hands that could play thru the turn as villain played include

KQ?, KJ?, KTs, K9s, QJs, JTs, T9s, QTs

You ought not pull out the only hands that make your argument for your case. KQ and KJ are the least likely, IMHO, hands for villain, though they are possible.

Again, my math sucks.. I mean sucks. But my gut tells me that we are behind to the likely range of hands that villain may have.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't putting him on these hands. I was talking through a possible scenario. You said that his river raise indicates that he can beat two pair. I was giving an example where it might not.

I limp with KQ UTG from time to time. I also limp with KJs.

I agree that KQ and KJ are not the most likely candidates. But I don't think they are less likely than KTs or K9s. And they certainly aren't improbable enough to warrant a fold.

You seem to want to keep arguing with me just for the sake of arguing, because I basically just said the same thing as TakeMeToTheRiver and that seemed ok to you. So I'm done here.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
QJ is very likely here.

[/ QUOTE ]

K8 suit (2) and KJ (8) are more likely than QJs (4). He could have K9s (2) &amp; KT (6) for a better 2-pr, though the action on earlier streets I think discounts these possibilities.

I would 3-bet expecting to see KJ.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet? (With Results)
 

Hey guys,

These are some great responses. I'm surprised this hand has generated this much discussion.

I'd like to hear more about the flop check-raise. I think I check-raise weak hands on the flop in heads-up and short-handed pots WAY too often. I don't worry about the flop checking through, because that happens only very rarely, but I wonder if the pot distortion and "pot commitment" effects in relation to my opponent are more valid concerns than I wonder about. One reason I like a flop check-raise here is that I feel much more comfortable proceeding with the information I gain from a flop check-raise than I do from just leading out, as villain will raise a flop lead with tons of holdings but will likely only three-bet a flop check-raise with stronger holdings. This may not be as valuable as I seem to think it is, though.

As for the results, all you need to know is:

The river got capt = I'm fuct

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet? (With Results)
 

[ QUOTE ]
The river got capt = I'm fuct

[/ QUOTE ]

Come on -- tell us he had KTo and not QJ... it makes the story soooo much better.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

i idin't read the otehr responses.

i never 3bet this, unless i can fold to the cap. if there was a cap at 3 bets, then you should bet this every time, because the odds of you being ahead are above 50%. but because you're calling his cap, you need to be ahead more then 2/3rd of the time here to win. (because you're getting 1 more when you're ahead, costing yourself 2 when you're behind ).


btw, from what i saw at tstone you played good. much better then i did before i moved away from 3/6fh. if you have the patience/ time/ bankroll i'd recommend moving to 3/6sh -&gt; 5/10sh etc.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
because you're calling his cap, you need to be ahead more then 2/3rd of the time here to win. (because you're getting 1 more when you're ahead, costing yourself 2 when you're behind ).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this that hard of a fold post-cap? Pot would be giving 13.25-1. However, OP's read puts opp. on the tight side. Certainly precludes a pure bluff, and almost certainly means opp. is not capping the river with top pair. His position means K's and 3's are impossible.

So I see it as risking just one bet on the river.

Re: A River Play Question... Very Thin Three-Bet?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
because you're calling his cap, you need to be ahead more then 2/3rd of the time here to win. (because you're getting 1 more when you're ahead, costing yourself 2 when you're behind ).

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this that hard of a fold post-cap? Pot would be giving 13.25-1. However, OP's read puts opp. on the tight side. Certainly precludes a pure bluff, and almost certainly means opp. is not capping the river with top pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

In Will's (OP's) own words:
[ QUOTE ]
Villain seems on the tightish side but I don't have much of a read as I just sat down.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is far from a confident read -- and early reads are generally based primarily on pre-flop play. Based on this limited read, how are you going to be 93% sure that this opponent would not play KQ/KJ this way or that he is above 3-betting with even worse? Hell, there are opponents that play AK ("It's a drawing hand") this way. My gut would tell me that I was losing, but the crying call of the 3-bet is going to happen nearly every time.