300BB upswing.
 

If you win 300 BB at a certain level over 10k hands. How ceartain can you be that you are beating the game? This is pretty much the same question as the 300 bb losing streak quetion right?

what about for larger samples, 20k, 50k, obviously your win rate varies as well. Assume a SD of around 14 bb per 100.

truth

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

You can be 95% confident you are between 0.25-5.7BB/100 winner if you run at 3bb/100 for 10,000 hands.

Link.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

nh

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/4939/ptpic0cs.jpg

I had never played these limits prior to those hands (I've only been playing poker for a little more than 2 months).

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

Great link, thank you.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This happens:

[ QUOTE ]
*** You are ignoring this user ***

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, this happens:

http://www.mtmtechnologies.net/schneids3bb.JPG

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I had never played these limits prior to those hands (I've only been playing poker for a little more than 2 months).

[/ QUOTE ]

Today is 08/16/2005. How did you manage to play hands on 08/20/2005? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This happens:

[ QUOTE ]
*** You are ignoring this user ***

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

he must live in australia or something

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

"When will then be now?"

"Soon."

Major A**hole answering question of Dark Helmet.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
he must live in australia or something

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you are joking. The international date line adustment is just ONE day, not several.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

ah, this link is to my site... cool... didnt know this little program still existed there in cyberspace, u cant reach from our site [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

site is in swedish so most u will get nothing out of it

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I hope you are joking. The international date line adustment is just ONE day, not several.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it was more a joke on the DD/MM/YY vs MM/DD/YY differences between America and other countries.

(though, since one number in his date was 20, it was clearly a joke)

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
he must live in australia or something

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope you are joking. The international date line adustment is just ONE day, not several.

[/ QUOTE ]
Your sense of humor must be in australia.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I had never played these limits prior to those hands (I've only been playing poker for a little more than 2 months).

[/ QUOTE ]

Today is 08/16/2005. How did you manage to play hands on 08/20/2005? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i accidently set the date on my laptop 6 days forward somehow - confused the hell out of me when i woke up one morning earlier this week lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I pretty much played those hands over 3 days, usually 8-tabling, so my brain was pretty fried from playing so much lol.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

I don't get it. When I plug in numbers, the confidence interval numbers at the top disappear?!

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get it. When I plug in numbers, the confidence interval numbers at the top disappear?!

[/ QUOTE ]

Me too [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] I'm trying to figure out how to do this

Is there an applet some where else that does this?

Edit: Got it to work by changing the numbers in the address bar.

How accurate is this? One sample that I use says that I am between -1BB/100 and 5BB/100, and one sample that I use says that I am between 2.5BB/100 and 8.5BB/100. This is for shorthanded play. What is everyone's SD for SH games? Mine shows as 15.02.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, this happens:

http://www.mtmtechnologies.net/schneids3bb.JPG

[/ QUOTE ]


You get a 1UP?

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

I had never played these limits prior to those hands (I've only been playing poker for a little more than 2 months).

[/ QUOTE ]

Today is 08/16/2005. How did you manage to play hands on 08/20/2005? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

i accidently set the date on my laptop 6 days forward somehow - confused the hell out of me when i woke up one morning earlier this week lol [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]. I pretty much played those hands over 3 days, usually 8-tabling, so my brain was pretty fried from playing so much lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

you were 8 tabling on a laptop?

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

"i accidently set the date on my laptop 6 days forward somehow - confused the hell out of me when i woke up one morning earlier this week lol . I pretty much played those hands over 3 days, usually 8-tabling, so my brain was pretty fried from playing so much lol."

After reading the post of gambling addiction by ten7offsuit, I know how much of a douche bag you are.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. What is everyone's SD for SH games? Mine shows as 15.02.

[/ QUOTE ]

16.6

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

Also, this means you woulda had to 8 tabled on your laptop... for 40 hours in 3 days, avg. 13.3hours/day

You, sir, are full of [censored]

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also, this means you woulda had to 8 tabled on your laptop... for 40 hours in 3 days, avg. 13.3hours/day

You, sir, are full of [censored]

[/ QUOTE ]

lol... no i do not "8-table on a laptop." I have a 21" CRT monitor hooked up to it, which I play 4 tables on. My laptp (dell inspiron 9300) has a wuxga screen (1920x1200 resolution), which easily fits 4 tables with no overlap and room to spare. I also have a pc with a 17" LCD hooked up at my desk so i can use aim and the internet while playing (yes, I am serious - I'm playing 6 games right now). And about 13.3 hours/day, that is also incorrect. I was not 8-tabling the entire time as it is difficult to find 8 good games going on at all hours of the day. It was actually closer to 15hr/day I think. You don't want to know how much adderrall i've taken hahaha. And btw, I'm up $3800 so far tonight - only 4-tabling. My eyes feel like they're gonna fall out lol.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

Sweet.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

not very...b/c i had a 600BB upswing over around that many hands...but the down swings can come just as big im sure...noones every gonna agree on this topic...anything
is possible...up or down

but then again...i know nothing

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
"When will then be now?"

"Soon."

Major A**hole answering question of Dark Helmet.

[/ QUOTE ]


hahah this is one of the only things that ive seen thats made me laugh lately...and this section of the forums SURE needed it...god i LOVE that movie

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

Spelade händer: played hands
BB/100 = BB/100
Standaravvikelse/100 = SD in BB/100 hands
Konfidensintervall = How sure u wanna be, "95" means 95%

Click Submit and u will get upper and lower limit at the top.

It works for me.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

By the way: the real link is:
http://www.svenskpoker.com/math.php

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

I actually have the described problem with your page in Mozilla (1.6), but it work's fine in IE.

I knew someone round here made that page, but couldn't remember who to accredit. Anyway, I do now. Thanks and nice work [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
. What is everyone's SD for SH games? Mine shows as 15.02.

[/ QUOTE ]

16.6

[/ QUOTE ]


Is SD lower when you are running well? Over my last 10K hands my SD is only 14 in 6max games, average of 5 handed. And I've been running extremely well too so I think there's a correlation

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
you were 8 tabling on a laptop?



[/ QUOTE ]

I have done 10 on mine before. What is wrong with that?

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

"If you win ... How certain can you be that you are beating the game?"

100%

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

Ah, our computerguy knows about this mozilla problem... but he is playing to much poker to get time to do anything about it. I will write an article next coming days where u also can compute how much bankroll u need and after how many hands this biggest possible dowswing will happen given your winrate and standard deviation. I will post link when I have written it.

Peachy . . .
 

See, I can make you laugh, too! Don't be too quick to rule out what we discussed during the 2+2 game.

TSP

Re: Peachy . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
See, I can make you laugh, too! Don't be too quick to rule out what we discussed during the 2+2 game.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]


HAHAHAH that would make me a hooker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Re: Peachy . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
See, I can make you laugh, too! Don't be too quick to rule out what we discussed during the 2+2 game.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]


HAHAHAH that would make me a hooker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this suddenly some kind of secret?

Re: Peachy . . .
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
See, I can make you laugh, too! Don't be too quick to rule out what we discussed during the 2+2 game.

TSP

[/ QUOTE ]


HAHAHAH that would make me a hooker [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this suddenly some kind of secret?

[/ QUOTE ]

i knew there was a reason i hated u matt [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I will write an article next coming days where u also can compute how much bankroll u need and after how many hands this biggest possible dowswing will happen given your winrate and standard deviation.

[/ QUOTE ]

The "biggest possible downswing" is infinite, and it is not the same as your required bankroll. What you mean is the biggest net loss corresponding to a certain number of standard deviations. This is finite; however, equating this with the required bankroll size is a classic fallacy. See my comments here, and do not use the bankroll portion of this web page, unless you desire a 1.1% risk of ruin.

Re: 300BB upswing.
 

[ QUOTE ]
What if you run better than 3bb/100? [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]



I had never played these limits prior to those hands (I've only been playing poker for a little more than 2 months).

[/ QUOTE ]

Your W$WSF is very high for your VPIP. I would expect you to be a winner, but your current winrate will go down at some point and converge to the mean.