why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

I would just like to hear everybody's ideas why the swings are so brutal at 6max. I have my ideas but I want to see if I'm on the same page as the rest of you guys.

Thanks

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

I think it comes down to agression level. The current trend in the HUSH forums seems to be very agressive. It is a mentaility of maintaining the initiative, control, and forcing others to play YOUR game.

I don't pound away quite as relentlessly as some here. Some might criticize me for being weakish passive-agressive. But, my swings are nowhere near as bad as other here have posted. I can only think of 1 time in the last 30,000 hands or so that i lost more than 150 BB before things started to turn in the other direction.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

Variance is a bitch.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

In a short game you may risk 4 BBs to win 4 BBs. In a full game you may risk 4 BBs to win 10 BBs. So in a full game when you win a pot, the size of the pot makes up for the number of times you lose.

The numbers are not exact...It's just an idea.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

More marginal situations.

The other ideas in this thread don't really make any sense to me.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

I wasn't under the impression that there were "ideas" and "theories" as to why there was more variance. There is more variance with fewer people playing as you are forced to play more hands than you would in a ring game, which means more marginal situations that will show a profit over 50% of the time but not always much more. When you play heads up the swings are at a maximum because of this reason.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

Although I dont have any data to support this. My opinion is that there is a direct correlation between the number of hands played and your SD/100. This is just a thought which I stole from one of my portfolio theory classes. If everyone has there own tolerance to risk(variance) are there possible inflection points which would define the tradeoff between # of hands played, variance and EV?

I'm not even sure how someone could even go about doing this or if it is even feasible. Sorry for the incoherent ramblings

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

swings?

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

your playing roughly twice as many starting hands and more hands per hour. Also when played correctly there is more 3 betting pre-flop. your profit comes from the later streets.
if you watch high limit 200-400 they can win or lose 20-50k pretty fast where as in a 9-10 handed ring game for the same size, a big win might be 10-12k.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
The current trend in the HUSH forums seems to be very agressive. It is a mentaility of maintaining the initiative, control, and forcing others to play YOUR game.

[/ QUOTE ]
Being aggressive and in control when playing shorthanded is not a "trend".

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it comes down to agression level. The current trend in the HUSH forums seems to be very agressive. It is a mentaility of maintaining the initiative, control, and forcing others to play YOUR game.

I don't pound away quite as relentlessly as some here. Some might criticize me for being weakish passive-agressive. But, my swings are nowhere near as bad as other here have posted. I can only think of 1 time in the last 30,000 hands or so that i lost more than 150 BB before things started to turn in the other direction.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your example means very little. I also do not have a higher than 150 BB downswing in my 30K+ hands at 5/10 and I play a more aggressive style. Maybe a passive style stays out of more marginal situations but then you also don't win as much, which also leaves you vulnerable to a downswing.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

note i used the words "very aggressive". i guess it's hard to know what each other means by 'very'. when i referred to the "current trend" i was talking about people aiming to reach 30/20/2.5.

at PP 3/6 i'm running 23.5/17.5/1.8. I consider myself passive-agressive. i don't keep pushing when i meet resistance, but i don't fold much either when i have a hand. am i too weak-tight?

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
swings?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really, really hate you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

I gotta say I love the swings [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Sure it feels awful to go through a downswing but so many players have problem with tilt and if you dont, that must be another edge I dont wanna miss [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think it comes down to agression level. The current trend in the HUSH forums seems to be very agressive. It is a mentaility of maintaining the initiative, control, and forcing others to play YOUR game.

I don't pound away quite as relentlessly as some here. Some might criticize me for being weakish passive-agressive. But, my swings are nowhere near as bad as other here have posted. I can only think of 1 time in the last 30,000 hands or so that i lost more than 150 BB before things started to turn in the other direction.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was reading an archive of davidross's journals, and he said when he switched to a more aggressive style (the HUSH way) variance was much less than when he played passively. His sample size was humongous, so that pretty solidly contradicts what you are saying. Just a thought

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

I honestly don't believe the swings are really that different. There are two factors that make the swings appear larger:

1. You play 50% more hands per hour in a 6 max game, so the hourly swings are larger even when SD/100 is not significantly larger.

2. Many people move to the 6 max games from smaller games (say 2/4 full to 5/10 6 max). Since the higher limits are tougher, their win rates are lower. Lower win rates mean larger and more frequent downswings.

And this is coming from someone who has experienced huge swings at 10/20 6 max. The reason, though, is that my win rate is small at that limit, so the swings are expected. It's not because the game is short.

But Jeff W says it better than me.

Link

That is a very interesting thread, btw.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]

2. Many people move to the 6 max games from smaller games (say 2/4 full to 5/10 6 max). Since the higher limits are tougher, their win rates are lower. Lower win rates mean larger and more frequent downswings.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think swings at shorthand are much worse than swings at full ring. I think that the above quote only tells part of the story.

I don't know what the other part of the story is. All I know is that given my experience at 2/4 full ring and my experiences at shorthand, the lower winrate is not enough to explain the depth and types of sustained downswings/long breakeven streaks.

Krishan

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]

I don't know what the other part of the story is. All I know is that given my experience at 2/4 full ring and my experiences at shorthand, the lower winrate is not enough to explain the depth and types of sustained downswings/long breakeven streaks.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's the combination of increased variance in the game - because the nature of the game involves repeatedly taking smaller edges - and lower win rates.

In theory, if the game obeys a normal distribution, swings are proportional to variance/win rate (variance = standard dev ^ 2).

As Jeff W says in the thread linked above, a common SD for 100 hand samples in full ring is 15BB, while 17 is more common for 6-max. Let's suppose a 2BB/100 winner at full ring moves to 6-max and has a win rate of 1.5BB/100 there.

Then variance/win rate moves from 112.5 to 192.67, a 70% increase: you'll see swings that are 70% larger on average.

Guy.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

To go along with this topic.

Is there anyway to lower the variance at 6 max games?

Everyone knows that Agressive play is the preferred method of play.

Is it possible to lower agression a bit and tighten up to lower variance but still keep an acceptable win rate?

Or is there another method to lower variance?

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I don't know what the other part of the story is. All I know is that given my experience at 2/4 full ring and my experiences at shorthand, the lower winrate is not enough to explain the depth and types of sustained downswings/long breakeven streaks.


[/ QUOTE ]

It's the combination of increased variance in the game - because the nature of the game involves repeatedly taking smaller edges - and lower win rates.

In theory, if the game obeys a normal distribution, swings are proportional to variance/win rate (variance = standard dev ^ 2).

As Jeff W says in the thread linked above, a common SD for 100 hand samples in full ring is 15BB, while 17 is more common for 6-max. Let's suppose a 2BB/100 winner at full ring moves to 6-max and has a win rate of 1.5BB/100 there.

Then variance/win rate moves from 112.5 to 192.67, a 70% increase: you'll see swings that are 70% larger on average.

Guy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm. Maybe this does account for all of it. Thanks Guy. It's good to have math people around.

Krishan

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

Guy, thanks for the numbers.

[ QUOTE ]
In theory, if the game obeys a normal distribution, swings are proportional to variance/win rate (variance = standard dev ^ 2).

As Jeff W says in the thread linked above, a common SD for 100 hand samples in full ring is 15BB, while 17 is more common for 6-max.

[/ QUOTE ]
So if my math is right, a player with the same win rate in a full game and a 6 max game will have 28% larger swings on average. That is a little larger (as expected), but it doesn't seem so extreme and appears to support my point.

One mitigating factor is that a player in a 6 max game might have a higher win rate than he would against the same competition in a full game. I think it is pretty well accepted around here that shorthanded play favors the better players. So the difference in swings in practice might even be less than that 28% percent figure.

Another point I forgot to mention in my previous post is that when people go from 2/4 full -> 5/10 6 max, the swings are of course much larger in terms of dollars, which colors our thinking. When you are winning and losing more dollars, superficially it might seem like you are winning and losing more big bets. Like an optical illusion.

I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Is there anyway to lower the variance at 6 max games?

...

Is it possible to lower agression a bit and tighten up to lower variance but still keep an acceptable win rate?

Or is there another method to lower variance?

[/ QUOTE ]

Strategies to lower variance come at a direct cost in terms of winrate. Do not pursue them. I can't explain it well myself, and have to run, but I *know* this has been written about in a very clear fashion by several poker authors.

An example from no-limit hold'em: suppose you have the nut flush draw at the turn, and you've got the largest stack at the table in a cash game. Three players (all uber LAGs) move all in before its you to act, and the board is not paired or set up in a fashion that would suggest your flush will be no goot if it hits. Lets say you're getting 6:1 on a call... this is a high variance call, but a proper one. To forgo this bet in the name of "reducing variance" would be poker suicide. You'd be leaving $$$ on the table. Sure, you might lose a huge chunk of change the 80% of the time your flush card doesn't come, and might lose some of the 20% it does come if it makes a boat for someone or whatever. But In the long run, if you play it all out, this is a good bet and you need to take it. Same goes for most high variance situations in shorthanded limit hold'em.

If you're worried about variance, beef up your bankroll. I think it's entirely reasonable to want 500BB to play the 5/10 6-max and up, given the aggression level. I know I won't play 5/10 regularly until I have 500BB available to me. It isn't that I think I can't beat the game now -- its that I want to do it right when I do get there, and without fear of variance.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think most players on this forum UNDERESTIMATE the swings in the 10/20, especially for a relatively aggro player.

-Mike

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
swings?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really, really hate you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey I went down 50 BB last night in 500 hands. That hurt my win rate. 4.6 BB/100 is unacceptable.

Haha, swings are great... don't worry guys, my huge downswing is coming.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
swings?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really, really hate you. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey I went down 50 BB last night in 500 hands. That hurt my win rate. 4.6 BB/100 is unacceptable.

Haha, swings are great... don't worry guys, my huge downswing is coming.

[/ QUOTE ]

Met, I already think you are a cock. For the sake of those new to the boards, do yourself a favor and shut up.

Krishan

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think most players on this forum UNDERESTIMATE the swings in the 10/20, especially for a relatively aggro player.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree. My previous post was poorly worded.

I think most people underestimate the swings in poker, period. It's just that they exaggerate the difference between 6 max and full games when both are just really swingy.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

Says the guy who has "on my way to my first 100k" in his location...haha.

I love it.

Nit.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think most players on this forum UNDERESTIMATE the swings in the 10/20, especially for a relatively aggro player.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't agree. compared to the bigger games, 10/20 is passive

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Says the guy who has "on my way to my first 100k" in his location...haha.

I love it.

Nit.

[/ QUOTE ]



all he's saying is you brag a LOT. you brag more than anyone else in 2+2. you brag worse than bk did when he bragged a lot. personally I couldn't care less, but it pisses a lot of people off

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Says the guy who has "on my way to my first 100k" in his location...haha.

I love it.

Nit.

[/ QUOTE ]



all he's saying is you brag a LOT. you brag more than anyone else in 2+2. you brag worse than bk did when he bragged a lot. personally I couldn't care less, but it pisses a lot of people off

[/ QUOTE ]


Poker is an easy game when cards are hitting u in the face. Hell you can play like a fish and win.

I dont wish ill on anyone, but Im intrested to see how and if he can handle it when the cards dont come his way. I suspect tilt and loss of confidence will happen. That and ppl here probably rubbing it in.

Its easy to be cocky and challenge everyone to the inevitable heads up matches (a lot of ppl who depend on running hot seem to do this) when you have an unsustainable winrate. Its not talent that is keeping it that high.

PS. Some of the stuff in here is a generalization of someone running white hot who has personality issues and feels the need for everyone to know..."hey Im running good" like it requires talent, or something.

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Says the guy who has "on my way to my first 100k" in his location...haha.

I love it.

Nit.

[/ QUOTE ]



all he's saying is you brag a LOT. you brag more than anyone else in 2+2. you brag worse than bk did when he bragged a lot. personally I couldn't care less, but it pisses a lot of people off

[/ QUOTE ]

Of all the things that make The Metetron lame, bragging seems like a strange one to focus on.

scrub

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I still believe that most people exaggerate the swings in 6 max poker, and they back up their claims with largely anecdotal evidence.


[/ QUOTE ]

I think most players on this forum UNDERESTIMATE the swings in the 10/20, especially for a relatively aggro player.

-Mike

[/ QUOTE ]


I don't agree. compared to the bigger games, 10/20 is passive

[/ QUOTE ]

My STD DEV is pretty close in both games, in fact it is a little higher in the 10. I do believe that the 30 is a lot more aggro tho, especially preflop. Regardless, your statement still doesnt make sense, since I didnt say that the 10 was swingier than the 30, I just said people underestimate the swings, which is true. My last 130K have looked like this: 60K at 4.5/100, 45K at .6/100, 25K at 3.7/100.

-Mike

-Mike

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

aawww cant we all just get along!!!

Re: why all the mad swings in 6max?
 

i started playing 6 max about a month ago. i made a post complaining about how i felt after my 68 bet downswing. i was informed there was worse to come. over 600 hands yesterday i had a 100bb swing both ways and ended up about 10 bets and cleared my bonus. it is scary as hell seeing your bankroll fly back and forth. but as long as it comes back im happy. im just waiting for my long 200bb swing so i can smash my head into a wall.

rj