NL Preflop Question
 

(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

If you can narrow his range to TT+, AK+, this is a fold.

Am I missing something?

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

I assume this is very early in the tournament?

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

I would think that answer is to call, as he still has 200 behind which you are guarenteed to get in on favorable flops. He could have TT, JJ, and even if he has QQ or KK, remember you get all the money infor sure when you outflop him.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

my 5 second thoughts say fold

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

Fold

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

Seems like an obvious fold to me.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

you have to do the math here, before you can say this is an obvious fold.

Combination of TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA
Combinations of AK

Then you have to figure out the % of the time he'll fold and you'll win the blinds and dead money if he has TT.
Then you have to figure out the % of the time he has all the other holdings calls and you draw out and win, and then you have to figure out all the % of the time he has all the other holdings calls and he wins.

Its not that hard a question, i'm just too lazy to do that math.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

obvious fold

my way of saying i'm lazy as well. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

How many chips do we have in our stack? You don't mention that in the op. If we have 1000 chips, we ought to fold I think. If we have 10,000, we put him all-in right now. So, until we know our stack size relative to the other stacks at the table, I can't give a competent answer.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

dont have the time to do the math, but i think it is a fold, but a close one, since AK, AA, and QQ are all less likely to be his holding given your hand.

On a side note, what player would really lay down 10's with a stack of 300 and 100 invested, even with those small blinds

Gabe

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

Well he said plenty but not sure what that means. I'm saying fold but I"m prolly wrong.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

EV of Allin:

You put him all in for his 300. There are 6 combos of TT, JJ, and KK. There are 3 combos of AA and QQ. There are 12 combos of AK. So 36 total combos. He folds 6/36 of these or 1/6. So 1/6 of the time you win 100+30=130.

5/6 of the time he has JJ-AA or AK and will call you. Against this range, you win about 29% of the time and lose 71% of the time (pokerstove). (.29)(330)+(.71)(-280)= -103.1.

So Total EV when you move all in is (1/6)(130) + (5/6)(-103.1) = -64.25

Folding has an EV of 0.

I'll try to do the EV of calling later. It's the most difficult though.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

[/ QUOTE ]

A. All-in preflop:

AA (6) -- 7% = 0.5 wins
KK (6) -- 28% = 1,68 wins
QQ (6) -- 30% = 1,8 wins
AK (16) -- 23% = 1,38 wins
---------------------
34 -- 5 wins = 14,71%

Pot: 610 -- for your 280 you need 45,90% equity. That's not the case, therefore all-in is wrong.

B. Call
AA (6) -- 7% = 0.5 wins
KK (6) -- 28% = 1,68 wins
QQ (6) -- 30% = 1,8 wins
TT (6) -- 42,5% = 2,5 wins
AK (16) -- 23% = 1,38 wins
---------------------
40 -- 7,5 wins = 18,75%

Pot = 210 -- for your 80 you need 38% pot equity. With 18,75% it looks that this is not the case, BUT the automatic all-in on his part could change the outcome, because if you win, you get 200 more, while you fold if you miss. So it's a question of implied odds. On the other hand if you flop a queen and he has Q-Q you will lose 280. Flopping the 4th queen should happen rarely though. Same problems with the ace.

At this point some expert has to take over because I don't know how to continue the math from here. For instance 15% of the possible card combinations are Q-Q. Chances for the 4th queen to flop are 1:47 (right? We know 4 cards in this case).

Don't forget that my numbers are only estimations because of different suits and such. This small margin of error could turn a close call into a close fold.

Maybe a call turns out to be correct.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

The answer to your quesiton is obvious...

Do you see why?

Sigma

Math shows folding is correct.
 

ok EV of Calling:

If you don't flop and Ace of Queen, you don't have odds to call against his range of hands unless you have a flush draw or Straight Draw and even then you might not because he could have a set or you could be going for a split. So I guess I'll just consider whether you flop a pair or not. You flop a pair about 1/3 of the time.

If you flop a queen you are now ahead of TT and JJ and AK, which have 2,2, and 3 outs respectively. You have 5 outs against KK and 2 outs against AA. You have no outs against QQ.

If you flop an A, you are ahead of TT-KK (they have 2 outs) and have 3 outs against AK.

You also could flop both an A and Q, but the odds of this are 32:1 so I'll ignore it.

So about 4/6 of the time you call and fold the flop if it doesn't contain an A or K.

So 1/6 of the time you flop a Q you are ahead of 24 combos and behind 10. So 5/12 of the time that you flop a Q, you are ahead of your opponent. Half the combos have 2 outs (TT,JJ) and against the other half (AK) have 3 outs. So your opponent has 2.5 outs on average. 7/12 of the times you flop a Q, you will be behind. 6/10 of the time you will 5 outs (against KK), 3/10 you will have 2 outs (against AA), and 1/10 of the time you will have 0 outs (against QQ). So on average you have 3.6 outs.

Ok, so of the times when you flop a Q you will go on to win 5/12-(1/10)(5/12) or or about 42% of the time (I think this is right,??). You will lose 7/12-(1/7)(7/12) or about 58% of the time. I guess I could have just ignored the outs your opponents has because it's such a small number when multiplied by the percentage you're ahead/behind...unless I'm doing something wrong.

If you flop an Ace (1/6 of the time) you are ahead of TT(6)+JJ(6)+QQ(3)+KK(6) or 21 combos and behind AK (8 combos). So you are ahead 21/29 of the time and behind 8/29 of the time. We'll ignore outs to make this simpler.

Ok. Total EV of calling:

(4/6)(-80) + (1/6)(.42)(330)+(1/6)(.58)(-280)+(1/6)(21/29)(330)+(1/6)(8/29)(-280) = -30

Folding has highest EV so fold is right.

EDIT: I forgot to make the 80 a -80 in my previous post of this which is why calling came out to be higher EV...it is actually negative EV.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

just a note as I see you're trying to do some math which is good. There are not 6 combinations of AA when you hold AQ, there are 3. Also 3 combos of QQ and 12 of AK.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

is the AQ suited??! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

foldy fold

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, he only folds one of the 7 hands you put him on. And with all the rest he goes all in with an advantage over you unless he also has AQ. I don't know what you mean by 'plenty of chips,' but since it is early, and given the peculiar foreknowledge of his possible hands and actions, I would fold.

It is much more likely he is going all in than not, and with all but AQ he is the favorite. Why he would commit a third of his stack and then fold tens to a raise is a mystery known only to the puzzle maker [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Frank

Re: Math shows folding is correct.
 

I've always been curious how one figures all this math out in the heat of the moment. I can understand putting people on hands and knowing if you are a favorite, but all the EV weighted calcs seem a lot harder to do a the table. Does one get better as situations repeat???? Do yo study common structured hand problems and as the closest ones come up say "oh that's that one" - fold
Someone enlighten me.

Re: Math shows folding is correct.
 

Note: It seems that if you consider the flops where you flop trips, two pair, or a flush draw (flops allowing you to make a +EV call), the call is closer to being correct, but still not as good as folding

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

You are calling 80 to win 330 in implied odds and are over 30% against his range (actually, far over 30%, because AA and QQ are less likely). The times where you call with the best hand but he hits a 2 or 3 outer are roughly equivalent to the times he has the best hand vs. your top pair but you hit the 2 or 3 outer. Additionally, sometimes the flop will come something like QJT and you will not pay him off.

This is a call, and it's not all that close.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
just a note as I see you're trying to do some math which is good. There are not 6 combinations of AA when you hold AQ, there are 3. Also 3 combos of QQ and 12 of AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

True! The funny thing is that I have seen such math before on this board and there the guy made the very same mistake.

I hope that the basic approach was correct at least. It is about implied odds and the likely outcome for the quiz is: Call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If that is correct, then we learn from this that the short stack should have gone all-in pre-flop.

Re: Math shows folding is correct.
 

[ QUOTE ]

I've always been curious how one figures all this math out in the heat of the moment. I can understand putting people on hands and knowing if you are a favorite, but all the EV weighted calcs seem a lot harder to do a the table. Does one get better as situations repeat???? Do yo study common structured hand problems and as the closest ones come up say "oh that's that one" - fold
Someone enlighten me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I think "all this math" is mostly useful for figuring out common situations away from the table, so you have some mathematical point of reference when making decisions at the table. I know that's how I treat these kinds of analysis.

Since poker is a game of incomplete information, most decisions come down to trying to determine what's going on in the hand and basically making an educated guess. Studying these kinds of hands is just one of the disciplines that helps you guess correctly more of the time.

Re: Math shows folding is correct.
 

doing the long math away from the table helps you get a feel for it and helps you guesstimate in 20 seconds or so.

Re: Math shows folding is correct.
 

Automuck.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
The answer to your quesiton is obvious...

Do you see why?

Sigma

[/ QUOTE ]
no, why?

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[quote
I hope that the basic approach was correct at least. It is about implied odds and the likely outcome for the quiz is: Call [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

If that is correct, then we learn from this that the short stack should have gone all-in pre-flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

But that would make AQ fold. If I am shortstacked and have a range of hands from AA-TT, AK, why would I want AQ to fold?

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

Why is this thread in this forum?

Re: Math shows folding is correct.
 

What the other posters said. FWIW on the WPT show,
"Poker by the Book" where David and several other famous poker book authors (Brunson, Caro, Helmuth, TJ, etc.) played (David won), they kept asking David what the odds were on various all in's. David was in the ball park, but I don't think he got very many exactly right.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

"Why is this thread in this forum?"

Because its not just for a bunch of gossipping old ladies.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
But that would make AQ fold. If I am shortstacked and have a range of hands from AA-TT, AK, why would I want AQ to fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you're apparently an idiot that pushes absolutely any flop. IRL, you probably wouldn't, but the question is supposed to be aimed at the concept of implied odds and of course 90% of this forum missed it.

It is likely that DS posted it here in order for the level of discourse to rise somewhat above 'OMG he called with QTo'. (edit: hah)

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

david-

what does this hand query have to do with televised tournaments and the like?

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
david-

what does this hand query have to do with televised tournaments and the like?

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you serious?

in other words,
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I've always been curious how one figures all this math out in the heat of the moment. I can understand putting people on hands and knowing if you are a favorite, but all the EV weighted calcs seem a lot harder to do a the table. Does one get better as situations repeat???? Do yo study common structured hand problems and as the closest ones come up say "oh that's that one" - fold
Someone enlighten me.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. I think "all this math" is mostly useful for figuring out common situations away from the table, so you have some mathematical point of reference when making decisions at the table. I know that's how I treat these kinds of analysis.

Since poker is a game of incomplete information, most decisions come down to trying to determine what's going on in the hand and basically making an educated guess. Studying these kinds of hands is just one of the disciplines that helps you guess correctly more of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

hypothesize! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Why is this thread in this forum?"

Because its not just for a bunch of gossipping old ladies.

[/ QUOTE ]

...and gossipping 2+2 groupies either.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

[ QUOTE ]
(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

[/ QUOTE ]

My initial minute of thought points towards cold calling and taking a flop. Thanks to diminishing marginal utility 100 chips is really insignificant at this level, but more significant is making the most mathmetically optical move with the focus on eliminating a tight player. I don't know if you equate tight with solid, but I'd like to get the tight player off the table in the hopes (or rather the educated gamble) that he will get replaced by some more dead money.

So either call or push. Leaning towards calling and folding unless you hit a good flop. Definitely not folding, because you want this guy off the table.

Re: NL Preflop Question
 

i hate that people like paul phillips never post in MHNL. Maybe that is why you would post this here, because maybe those type of people will respond. But I would like if you posted in MHNL as well, so the fact that this is here makes me very sad.

Please give a real reaosn for posting this here. The responses will be 95% morons like all the other posts in this forum.

Re: Math shows folding is correct.
 

Very good. Seems like a good idea to do a bunch of common scenario hand analyses. Doesn't seem that hard to do with a spreadsheet and pokerstove. Thanks for answering my question.