Token hand post (AKs)
 

Yeah, yeah, long time no write...

Went down to Resorts (f/k/a Harrah's) East Chicago last night with ChicagoTroy and played for a few hours. These were the first hands of poker I've played in about six weeks. Felt like my instincts were pretty sharp for the most part but here's one that confused me.

20/40. Sat down at the table maybe 1/2 hour ago and have won a couple of pots without a showdown. By default a young quiet, otherwise-unknown white guy in this game is apt to be perceived as somewhat tight aggressive.

I have AK diamonds UTG and raise. The only caller is the SB. Based on what I can tell, SB fits a pretty typical profile in this game. Somewhat chubby white dude in his late 20s, can get away with some loose play preflop because he knows the players all right and has some modicum of postflop skills. Probably can make a few moves postflop against "tight" players but wouldn't be considered especially aggressive by say 30/60 Party standards. Possibly beats this soft game by a small margin but would likely be a loser at comparable limits online.

Flop is 853 or something with two spades, he checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn is the A of spades, completing the flush draw, he bets into me. Is this still called a "donkbet" or has a new term of art emerged?

I hope you'll recognize that I can't fold here straight away.

Nevertheless, I've got various options...

1) Just call down.
2a) Raise turn and call down a 3-bet.
2b) Raise turn and fold to a 3-bet.
3) Call turn, raise non-spade river, fold to 3-bet.

...which do we prefer?

p.s. No I'm not dead or broke or institutionalized or anything like that. Just very busy with some cool stuff at Baseball Prospectus. Still have a backlog of work and I probably won't play a substantial amount of online poker until the end of the month. Not that I really miss it. I do miss you guys, though.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

Option 3 is very appealing.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

2a

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

[ QUOTE ]
Option 3 is very appealing.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

In a live game i think 2b) is good but I would never advocate it online against most opponents. For online i like basically all of the other options equally...

In live play you're just not going to get 3 bet unless you're drawing dead. The only problem is it looks bad to do a lot of raise folding, so I wouldn't do it if I've already shown I'm capable of the play.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

I like 3, but what's the line if the river's a spade?

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

Hi Nate tha' Great,

3.

Love,
Chris

I will edit to add however that 1 is better than 2.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

i'd call. i'm not excited about my hand, and i want him to show his hand. if you call and you were ahead, it doesn't make you look weak, it makes him look like an [censored]. so does him having some crappy winner. if he has a better hand, oh well. if a non-crazy is going to selectively pick on me in kind of tough spots i want to discourage it and find out what kind of hands he's playing. if you pull some sort of raise/fold stunt you've not only encouraged him, you've inspired the whole table to take shots at you.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

seems like your image and the action dictate a simple 1.

-Barron

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Option 3 is very appealing.

[/ QUOTE ]

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i disagree w/ you option 3ers. nate 100% needs to see a showdown here. if you raise river, you better be calling a 3bet despite the fact you're losing every time.

therefore. call down.

-Barron

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

[ QUOTE ]
if you raise river, you better be calling a 3bet despite the fact you're losing every time.


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no amount of image is worth this extra bet if you know you're losing every time, imo.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

I'd see a showdown here, No since in letting him ditch his hand on the turn.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

I think any plan that involves you folding is not the way to go. I like what astro said about calling down for several reasons (see what he has, don't encourage people to take shots at you, etc.). If you don't feel comfortable with 2a (and there is a lot to be said for not feeling comfortable with 2a) than I think it's a clear #1.

I think 2b and 3 are both bad choices.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

It's become fashionable in this forum to think MORE about the metagame than the game. The game is the game. The metagame is part of it; not the other way around.

I still say 3 is optimal. River 3-bets are not that common.

And sure, I'll call a spade river.

JV

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

I prefer to just call down. He bets when the ace of spades comes: the most common situation would be that it helped his hand. If he made just a pair of aces, and that's all he still has on the river, he's unlikely to call a river raise.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

I think the player you describe is very likely to cr semi-bluff an all undercard flop with a flush draw. Since he didn't do that, I'm not putting him on a made flush.

My vote is for raise the turn, call down a 3-bet. Fold the river if a 4th spade comes.

Krishan

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

[ QUOTE ]
I prefer to just call down. He bets when the ace of spades comes: the most common situation would be that it helped his hand. If he made just a pair of aces, and that's all he still has on the river, he's unlikely to call a river raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm also in the call down camp. If this guy weren't capable of making moves I'd find a raise somewhere, but the combination of him having the potential (not super likely) of making a move + not calling a river raise + making myself look like a bit of a passive player is enough for me to like just calling.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

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Not that I really miss it. I do miss you guys, though.

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/hug for Nate.

No offense Nate, but calling here is for wussies...not imply that you are one of course. I raise here.

Lawrence

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

you invented 3 didnt you?thats my standard, altough I still feel I have to call the river against SH online

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

Geez, can't you guys come to a consensus so we lurkers looking to move up have a play? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Personally I like 2a or 3 - I can't fold to a 3-bet on the turn because he may think you are the one with a flush draw if he has an A or he may be semibluffing his draw. A river 3-bet is usually more scary to me.

I haven't played live in forever though, so my thoughts are probably totally biased by crazy internet players. I think I'm going to Resorts tonight; don't suppose you or Troy are going to be there again?

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

I play a lot in that game and still can't picture the player. The only option you list that I don't like is 2a). Of course, I also don't like folding.

I didn't know you were from Chicago. Have we played before?

Results
 

This hand had a quasi-interesting twist on the river. My plan was to go with choice #3. The river came another A, giving me trips, he bet into me again, I raised and he just called. He had T2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and HHIG.

The reason I say this is interesting is because the A looks like a good card for me, but it actually isn't, since now there are fewer A's out there for him to hold. It improves the absolute strength of my hand, but weakens its relative strength.

For example, suppose that I put his hand range (this is obviously a simplified example) at:

AK-AJs/o, ATs
KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs, QTs, JTs, J9s, T9s-76s (the s in this case indicates spades, not suited)

My equity on the turn against this hand range is 57%, but drops to 50% once another A comes on the river.

...

In retrospect, I really feel like calling is the best play for the reasons that astroglide has described.

Re: Results
 

i don't understand why everybody was so excited about 1 pair here. i think the actual pair doesn't matter as long as it's over 88, and the kicker isn't very important.

if you think "i'm not going to play his game by calling, i'm going to RAISE THAT MOTHERFUCKER!!" that means you are infact playing his game. people often bet the turn to get a response out of you, it's why the bet/reraise line works so well. the kind of people who bet the turn with a picked up flush draw are those who don't consider their opponents' hands at all, they're only thinking about their own. this doesn't really sound like that type of guy. getting reraised gives you 2 choices, both of them suck, and both of them make you an idiot for having taken the bait.

a set, 2 pair, maybe really rarely a straight are all possibilities here in addition to flushes or snow. i like calling against all of those just fine, and i'm really not going to feel bad if i missed a bet if i happened to be ahead. it's not "value" to me compared to what i have to deal with if it's not. the worst-case scenario is WAY more bad than the best-case scenario is good. let's say you raise the turn and call down. you're eating 2 extra bets. if you raise and he calls with a worse hand and doesn't improve, you're gaining 1 bet. if he folds a bluff you're losing bets. i don't know the math but it seems like you'd need the "good outcome" a good amount of the time to make up for the bad ones, and i would have no idea how to assess those likelihood with this little information.

the people who see no choice other than raising somewhere and occasionally collect a bet might think YEAH I [censored] OWNED YOU MOTHERFUCKER, and if they lose they might write it off as OH WELL LOOK AT THE CARDS THIS IDIOT IS PLAYING. there are more balanced ways to approach poker. i think the people who really consider calling but still want to raise might have let their emotions get the best of them. at least i know if i raised that's what it would have meant because it's not a worthwhile value proposition to me.

who does the betting sure bothers people. if he checked the turn and i bet i wouldn't wish that he would checkraise me. i think getting checkraised is a fair deal compared to me raising his donkbet too, because at least in the former situation i don't open the action back up to him. how many of you that are bent on raising would love to bet and get checkraised? a checkraise is a more "standard" way of indicating defeat, i know they're not exactly the same. but a donkbet here can indicate defeat or maybe nothing. and calling against either of those is a pretty cool move.

it's shorthanded or heads up, and you've got position. dude raises and you call. flop is big-little-little, dude bets and you autocall with nothing planning on blowing him off something on the turn. turn is little, but this time he checks and you know he's calling. it's pretty humbling to have to check it down and have your cards shown in the hand history because you know his nines aren't going anywhere, isn't it? it's humbling to call donkbets too, but just like the guy with nines checking the turn or some guy in NL going all in before you can bluff, your opponent's action has chopped the value out of you doing something kinetic. this AK hand is not worth folding so you get value out of calling and all sorts of ancillary metagame benefits.

and yeah GoT, raising an ace on the river sucks [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

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2a

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This is by far the worst option

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

I pick 1. Just call down. Maybe he has a flush.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

interesting hand. seems to me you're probably ahead but I wouldn't raise here. just calling down seems better. You may be missing a bet but you just dont know.

Re: Token hand post (AKs)
 

hey my name is Krishan too. never met any others, only Krishnas

Re: Results
 

Thanks Astro.

Re: Results
 

Hi Astro,

Great post.

RH

Re: Results
 

Hey Astro,

Glad I was lurking around mid-high today because your post elegantly describes something I've been dealing with frequently (for the first time) since I moved up to 5/10 6max.

Thanks for the great post.
-Brian