5/10 SH variance.
 

What kind of variance should I expect in 5/10 SH playing a bunch of... lesser players?

I set my loss limit at 30BB or $300.

I find that if luck is average I do really well with the poorer competition making over 3-4 BB per 100, 53% win showdown on average. But when the bad luck comes its flows like an avalanche of no cards and draw outs to 5 outers almost every hand I play. Usually within 200-300 hands I hit my $300 loss limit and quit, 25-35% win at showdown.

I rarely seem to have the opposite where I win a HUGE amount of money in a short time 56-60% win showdown.

Is this kind of super rollercoaster typical? Seems like the players suckout more. I set my $300 loss limit because by that time (after the 5th of 7 suckout in a row) I start getting really annoyed. I don't want to play bad so before the tilt sets in I quit.

http://www.texasholdempoker-stats.com/

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Typical day for me:

http://www.geekpoker.net/images/rollercoaster.jpg

I don't have a stop loss for these reasons, but I do try to stop playing when I realize I'm playing badly.

Rob

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Wow thats the actual swing in the bankroll for the day?

You lose $300 then go up to $600 then lose it all again then win it all back?

4 tables I assume. I only play 2. Can't handle 4. I have to watch the players.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

I start alot of sessions going down for some reason. These sessions many times end up as the bigger winners however. I even have had to rebuy in the past, only to end up leaving the same table up 50BB. Its not really related, but Brunson talks about his early days playing in Texas where he would buy in, rebuy, even rebuy twice sometimes, but almost always end up winning for the day and easily making back his buyins over the course of the session.

There has been discussion about this in this forum as well as the Psychology forum(might search for some related topics. Basically the consensus was: if you are playing well, don't get up(unless other reasons force you too, like those terribly -EV wife/GF). If you think you are even slightly tilting or you are not playing your best and going downhill, bail.

Setting a hardcap on loss is ludicrous. I sat down at a table last night, after playing 2 hands(about 8 total dealt) I was down to 10.2BB from my 25BB buy-in. 2 maniacs caught 4-outers or less on the river after capping flop/turn. With your rule, you might run bad a bit longer, get up, then leave. As long as you are not tilting & still in control, this would be a big mistake. You want to stay and not only get your money back from this type of player, you are gonna get all their money too the way they play.

The key is to realize when you are playing well and when you are starting to degrade & tilt.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

There is no variance in SH...










But seriously though. My first week i had a crazy 500BB upswing. My second week i had a 370BB downswing.

setting yourself a 30BB swing limit is going to make you leave the tables pretty damn quick.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

first 4k hands, i was at 8bb/100. after 11k total(including the 4k), im at 1 bb/100. took so many breaks in between, freaking out.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

If you have to set a stop loss of 30bb, you are probably underrolled for the game. You should just play lower until you have a sufficent role, say 600bb, and play. If you lose half of that, drop back down.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Most professionals and people who study the game realize that stop losses are a bad idea (Malmuth's Poker Essays, Inside the Poker Mind) and stops should be set for when you are playing bad or at a bad table. Losing 30BB is not an indication of any of these things. It's absolutely ludicrous to think that you will end a session literally 8 minutes after it's started if you play 3-4 pots early and lose. A 30BB stop loss in SH limit has to be the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

646 hands from today http://i16.photobucket.com/albums/b3...rluk/11Aug.jpg

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Where the hell do I get a working copy of Poker Grapher?

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Hmm interesting. I will keep that in mind. But at the very least I would have to switch tables.

It is my belief, and experience, that when you look invincible at a table you can bluff more and take down pots. Also your opponents bluff less and generally only raise you with great hands. Sure you get the constant bluffer at the table but at that point they are so frustrated that it is easy to play against them. They try to muscle you out of every hand, easy to play and profitable. Which only improves your image as you are sucking the life out of the bluffer.

When your running bad I see more bluff attempts, thus harder decisions. Folding one pot an hour I shouldnt is quite a bit of money lost (BB per 100).

You can't bluff, which takes away income. llayers have called me down with K high at times when I am sure they missed the flop also.

I'm sure you all will say as long as there are fish at the table you stay. For me I rarely see a recovery. What I do see is continued bad beats. Like tonight [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

I don't know about $5/10, but there is no variance at $10/20. All you have to do is run insanely good.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

I was just about to ask that.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Well I just read another post about 5/10 and players talking about 150BB downswings in a couple days.

WOW. Guess I am limiting myself.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

I think you sound very unsure of yourself. Maybe you should play lower limits until you have a fairly oversized BR for the next limit. For some reason what you are saying just sounds like a lack of confidence.

The other good thing that someone else pointed out was: leave a table when there are BETTER players at it than you even if there are 1 or 2 easy fish. I'd much rather avoid other good players than fish in the same pond with 1 or 2 other good players. At limits like 3/6 & 5/10 there are an abundance of tables all the time, and most of them will have at least 1-2 fish.

One other question: Do you play B&M? If so, do you put a hardcap on loss/win there?

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]
I think you sound very unsure of yourself. Maybe you should play lower limits until you have a fairly oversized BR for the next limit. For some reason what you are saying just sounds like a lack of confidence.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was that aimed at me? I'm guessing not, but just double checking.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Yes Met, you sound like a weak fishy putZ! Nah, you make great posts. I was talking about OP.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Nope. I am very confident about my play. I fear nothing. Since I have been playing 5/10 SH I have done well. But 3 sessions have been a nightmare.

Bad Session #1: 550ish hands 33% win SD
Bad Session #2: 350ish hands 35% win SD
Bad Session #1: 750ish hands 28% win SD

My TAF is over 2. My stats are almost the same as the ones I see on the board. Some of these bad sessions are just really bad. But now I realize that 5/10 SH is that much variance by your posts. Remember I only have 4000 hands. I was at 2.12 BB per 100 just before tonight. I aint afraid of those suckers at 5/10.

Maybe I should stick to $200 NL. I almost never have a bad session. Naw hours of boredom and moments of terror.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Yes Met, you sound like a weak fishy putZ! Nah, you make great posts. I was talking about OP.

[/ QUOTE ]

If anything, I thought I was too sure of myself; in fact, I know I am. Once I hit that downswing from hell you can all laugh at me.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

2.2 BB/100 over 4000 hands mean squat.

I think at 4000 hands I was still running at like 6.5 BB/100.

Now, I'm at a measily 5bb/100.


2 important things:

1) The long run is super long.

2) Variance is often an excuse for bad play around here. Nobody likes to mention this though.

If you are hitting a huge downswing that early into your 6max career with an unproven winrate, it'd be a mistake to immediately chalk it up to variance. You may have huge leaks even though your stats "match" many of the posters here.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

4,000 hands : thats 2 nights for me. I once ran bad 6 nights in a row for about 500BB. Some of that was tilt for sure, but I think I counted 11/13 AA cracked in that stretch, it was downright awful beats.

Some of the longer, better players around here have suffered downswings in excess of 10K hands(maybe even 15K+). You can't even look at your stats or winrate or anything else with any worthwhile meaning until probably 25K+ and then only with a grain of salt. I think a good starting point for stats is 100K+. A few stats are OK to look at with this small a sample, things like VP$P & PFR%, but most of the rest is worthless.

I hope this helps answer your original question.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

holy [censored]. maybe i don't suck at 5/10. maybe i just suck at taking the swings. (or both).

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Go figure, I decided to give Gametime another shot and loaded it on my PC. HEY THE NEW VERSION WORKS [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] . So I went to an EZ 2/4 table to see how it works, set preferences, set my PT timer, work with it, yada yada.....

1st 19 hands I get 5 premiums, lost with all of them heads up to suckouts on the turn or river, -$75 in 5 mins. Go figure. Im telling you when its not your night to play it just aint your night to play.

But for $75 I got gametime to work [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

30bb seems awfully small personally. However if you find yourself tilting, then by all means!

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Sure, a stop loss of $300 is fine. . .if you mean at any one specific table. Usually by then the other players are all taking shots at you and it's time to move. Otherwise, there are some nights you're going to play for 20 minutes and then quit a $300 loser. Learning not to tilt and to absorb the suckouts and swings is probably the most important part of SH, IMO. There are so many bad players that you can grind out winnings even if you are mediocre.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]

I set my loss limit at 30BB or $300.



[/ QUOTE ]

This will never work at SH play.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]

-$75 in 5 mins


[/ QUOTE ]

If this is going to annoy you then you really shouldn't play the $5/10 6-max.

Or the $3/6.

Guy.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

If -7.5BB in 1 hand or even 1 hour bothers you, you shouldn't be playing poker of any kind.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]
A 30BB stop loss in SH limit has to be the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard.

[/ QUOTE ]

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

http://www.moreles.com/graph811.gif

Variance is fun.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

if i stopped at 30bb i would be stopping within 5 minutes most of the time.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

beleive me now Im used to losing $500 in one night then winning it back the next. When I 1st started playing I really got POed at rediculous bad beat night. Being an outgoing personality with an analytical mind didn't help.

"How the F$%* did this jackass outdraw me on 3 outers 6 times in a row?!?!? Thats 1:1426. Thats impossible"

Now its...

"Bad beat 6 times in a row by the same moron *heavy sigh*. NEW table!"

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

I've lost and won as much as 70BB in one day - and probably other people have had bigger swings

Just be prepared mentally and bankroll wise for these swings

Steve Griff

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

This rarely happens. I play around 1-3 hours a day at 2 tables. Thats about 200-400 hands a day. Ive played about 4200 hands. Only 3 days of hitting this -30 BB day nasty. They other days I come out a head or some small loss. I dont have the time to play as much as I want due to my demanding job. I just wants to ask if variance was this high and obviously by the lovely graphs and posts it is.

This original question came up because of another player I speak to. Not going to say his name but I watch him play 4x 10/20 SH and I MSN with him. I only see this guy win win win. He plays very LAG but he is a good player post flop. We talk about the hands he plays and how he plays them. Besides the fact he PF raises with hand I would never (like K3o in the BUTTON for a steal) he always seems to win. So I was wondering how he got around the SH variance. His stats are like 40% see flop and VPIP in in the mid 30s I believe. He claims to win a good portion of his pots on bluffs. Course I dont see how as 90% of the time players at the 5/10 call down with any pair or just ace high, and the bluffers all get pounded. Apparently he makes a constant 4+ BB per 100. Hes not a 2+2er.

So after I started playing I noticed I had these huge swings. Most days I end up ahead but there are downs I run down to -$200 in 30 mins then swing back up to +$200.

Just never realized the variance was so much SH.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

Cool. I will. I think I will move down to 3/6 SH for a little while.

How do the players play there? Same way?

Also how much of a bankroll should you have 300BB?

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Thats 1:1426. Thats impossible

[/ QUOTE ]

awesome.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]
"Bad beat 6 times in a row by the same moron *heavy sigh*. NEW table!"

[/ QUOTE ]


Wouldn't you want to let the moron keep drawing at you? IOW, stay at this table?

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Also how much of a bankroll should you have 300BB?

[/ QUOTE ]

You've said that you multi-table. That plus the noted SH variance, I would recommend more along the lines of 500BB. 300BB is great for a single full game, but for SH and multi, I would up the number....

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, a stop loss of $300 is fine. . .if you mean at any one specific table. Usually by then the other players are all taking shots at you and it's time to move.

[/ QUOTE ]

Stop loss for a session is stupid. For a table makes sense. You need people to lay down their marginal favorites from time to time. If you're losing 30BB on a table, donks tend to give you less credit for the hands you're representing.

Re: 5/10 SH variance.
 

I had a 240 bet slide in the past 28 hours and still ended up 40 bets.

I would set the stop loss at 60 bets at least. (Unless you know you are playing poorly)

Krishan