30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

party 30/60 full table. I'm dealt QQ on the button. UTG is a TAG, utg+1 has been very loose pf rasing with all sorts of hands, utg +2 is pretty laggy, and utg+3(mp1?) has been a rock the hour i've been on the table.

UTG raises, utg+1 3 bets, utg +2 caps, and utg+3 cold calls 4 bets ?! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

folded to me and i think for awhile and finally muck it after concluding the rock must have KK or AA. do you like this fold?

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

You can play for a set profitably here.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

I'm calling here and letting myself make a decision on the flop.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

So far the first two people say "see the flop". I think thats the wrong way to go, and here's why.

First, while we'll certainly be getting action enough to play for set potential we're forgetting about those times that AA/KK are out, or God forbid both of them, and its an A/k-q-x flop, and we lose a TON of bets. So we really need to be looking at our odds of flopping/keeping top set. I don't know how to do the math, but i'm guessing it's much higher then the standard 8:1 for set potential.

Second, its awefully hard to flop an overpair, even with this kind of preflop action, unless you have to do it for 2bb at the same time.

Third (and i'm not sure of the validity of this), it isn't entirely impossible that at least on of our outs resides in the hands of the first two raisers.

All in all I think this is a good spot to just let this hand go. I don't see calling here being +EV, given the potential for spewage post flop, even if we hit.

lf

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

With a pot this big our implied odds will be through the roof.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

Very very bad

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

How can you conclude that the rock has exactly Aces or Kings? Couldn't the rock cap with AKs here? He makes AKs just as easy as he could make Aces or Kings.

Count the money in the pot. Count the IMMENSE implied odds when you flop big. Best of all, count how many spots from the button you are!

But since the "rock" killed the bitch, I might think twice about folding, but I'm a donkey gambler that would see if I could spike a Queen knowing I would be goin sizzler if I did.

~stephen

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
party 30/60 full table. I'm dealt QQ on the button. UTG is a TAG, utg+1 has been very loose pf rasing with all sorts of hands, utg +2 is pretty laggy, and utg+3(mp1?) has been a rock the hour i've been on the table.

UTG raises, utg+1 3 bets, utg +2 caps, and utg+3 cold calls 4 bets ?! [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

folded to me and i think for awhile and finally muck it after concluding the rock must have KK or AA. do you like this fold?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting situation!

The first raiser could have anything from pairs from 88 to AJs. Is this a fair range?

UTG1 you say is loose raising PF so he could have anything.

But I think UTG2 is the crux of the decision:

UTG2 is also LAGGY you say, but you didn't say he was a maniac and this difference is significant. Even LAGs usually slow down when faced with 2 early position raises in a row. So I think most LAGs just call a 3bet here without a premium hand. The question is what are the WORST hands you see him capping with? AK, AKs, AQs, or a JJ+? I think he'd just call here with AJs, or TT-88.

And now another Rock calls the 4 cold?

I think yuk. But you do have position, and it's always possible that UTG folds to the action.

IMO, JJ would be a fold, and KK is an auto-call.

I think the math says its a fold. Assuming you need to hit your set, you need to collect 7x your preflop investment to break even. So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold. Also this doesn't count the times you pop off for a lot of bets with an underset, or you lose to a straight or flush. So you essentially need three of your four opponents to go cap the turn AND the river for you to make money or at least break even here.

-Scott

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]
So you would call in this spot with 22?

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

Interesting situation. My gut says fold, my "gambol" says go babby go.

In the 30 game many players are a little looser with the 3 bet than they open with, but that 4th but from a non-maniac would stop me with JJ, is QQ any better? It's likely your break even to horribly dominated. With a significant tinge to horribly dominated.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

was it sooted?

sorry.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

who cares? like it matters

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
With a pot this big our implied odds will be through the roof.

[/ QUOTE ]

I understand that, especially assuming the range of hand we are likely against. The problem I see, however, is how much it costs us when you don't flop top set. Or end up with it on the river. This has to account for something.

lf

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Assuming UTG and UTG+1 call the raise, hero is getting over 4 to 1 to call 4 cold. With this kind of pre-flop action, you don't think a set of queens can make enough money?

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
who cares? like it matters

[/ QUOTE ]

The reasoning that Hero develops in thinking about this situation will help him in many other preflop decisions. Yes, this exact situation won't come up for Hero for the next ten billion years but similar ones may and now he will be equipped to handle them.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Assuming UTG and UTG+1 call the raise, hero is getting over 4 to 1 to call 4 cold. With this kind of pre-flop action, you don't think a set of queens can make enough money?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

See my reply for the math breakdown.

-Scott

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There will already be 8 big bets in the pot pre-flop. Only need 6 more.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Assuming UTG and UTG+1 call the raise, hero is getting over 4 to 1 to call 4 cold. With this kind of pre-flop action, you don't think a set of queens can make enough money?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

See my reply for the math breakdown.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually a little worse than Scott shows. You are not guaranteed to get those early calls, and the rock has already likely killed the action.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There will already be 8 big bets in the pot pre-flop. Only need 6 more.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need more than 6 more because there are times that you hit your set and lose.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You can play for a set profitably here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think this is true.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why not? Assuming UTG and UTG+1 call the raise, hero is getting over 4 to 1 to call 4 cold. With this kind of pre-flop action, you don't think a set of queens can make enough money?

[/ QUOTE ]

No.

See my reply for the math breakdown.

-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

It's actually a little worse than Scott shows. You are not guaranteed to get those early calls, and the rock has already likely killed the action.

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely. Didn't I mention it as a best case scenario?

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

Sorry Scott - I quick scanned your post.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

There will already be 8 big bets in the pot pre-flop. Only need 6 more.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're assuming that the first 2 raisers call. I'd guess there's a decent chance the UTG rock might fold.

-Scott

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

thanks for all the comments and advice, i appreciate it. i think the rock cold calling 4 bets sealed the deal on my fold. also, knowing me i would have ended up calling down on a raggedy board and lost a lottt of money.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

i think in you have to call in that position, the original rasiser is not folding for 2 more bets after he raised and the BB might even call after you call and the little blind will more than likely fold and thats another bet in the pot so you would be getting 5.25 to 1 on your bet more then likely. With QQ there is a slight chance you do have the best hand and you know that on the flop you will be calling any bet as long as it is not more than 1 bet maybe 2 bets depending on how many people are in, more than likely no one is folding on the flop unless its a nasty flop and someone missed completely. so you are looking at around a 540 to 600 dollar pot going into the turn card. so you are calling with a gut shot straight or open ender. if you flop a set you are looking to take down a very large pot, so you have to call, the implied odds for this hand are ridiculous and with a hand as strong as QQ it should be an easy call. i guess thats just my opinion..also you have position on the hand to have an idea how many bets it will be you throughout the hand..

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

for what it's worth i think this is a dead easy fold given your descriptions of the players.

Re: 30/60 party anotther QQ pf decison
 

[ QUOTE ]

I think the math says its a fold. Assuming you need to hit your set, you need to collect 7x your preflop investment to break even. So a minimum of 14 Bigs need to fly off the stacks of your opponents, which doesn't seem feasable given 2 of your opponents are rocks, and UTG might fold. Also this doesn't count the times you pop off for a lot of bets with an underset, or you lose to a straight or flush. So you essentially need three of your four opponents to go cap the turn AND the river for you to make money or at least break even here.
-Scott

[/ QUOTE ]

of course he's getting about 4-1 on his preflop call, so that covers a bit of the pot odds he needs to have his set pay off. you're heavily overstating how much action he needs to get for this to be profitable.

...of course, i still fold.