Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

Party 30/60

2 folds, I raise with red Jacks

Next player (73%/34/1.5) calls of course, folded to unknown in SB who also calls. BB folds.

Flop is Q 3 3, 2 diamonds.

SB checks, I bet, both call.

Turn is a Qs

Checked around.

River Ts

Checked to me. Bet?

If you say bet, why? I'm going to get called by someone holding a 3 and a missed draw is going to fold. This seems to be a "will I get called by a hand that I beat more than 50% of the time?" question.

Only if someone has a pocket pair or a T will I get called and win. (and maybe someone holding a lone ace) But is this enough to make it a bet?

Am I better off checking again and letting Mister 73% take a shot at the pot (which I will call unless SB raises)?

-Scott

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

I like checking and seeing if 73% bets .
Seems to me if you bet and are called you are beat

sjg

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

I would of thought most people would call with an ace here, which makes me lean towards betting.

Ace, pocket pair or ten is much more likely than a 3.

Although Mr 73 is quite aggressive from the stats so theres good argument for that option, in that there may be a greater chance that everybody folds than he bluffs at it.

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems to me if you bet and are called you are beat


[/ QUOTE ]
By what?

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

Checking the turn leaves you questioning the appropiate river decision. A bet on the turn would cure what ails you.

But since this wasn't the case you shouldn't continue the weak turn play with another weak play. I'd bet and expect to be called with a worse pocket pair or Ace high.

~stephen

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Seems to me if you bet and are called you are beat

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm... If I bet and get called I'll probably start counting the pot to see how much I'm about to win.

-ActionBob

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

that Q changed nothing and was a fantastic card for you b/c loose players now thing "oh, duh, he no have queen." turn check is very costly vs. these opponents imo.

bet the turn. bet the river. this shows a little trigger shyness that you really need to get over b/c many many bets are made in pots like this.

-Barron

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
that Q changed nothing and was a fantastic card for you b/c loose players now thing "oh, duh, he no have queen." turn check is very costly vs. these opponents imo.

bet the turn. bet the river. this shows a little trigger shyness that you really need to get over b/c many many bets are made in pots like this.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Should the OP be betting the turn and river planning to fold to a raise?

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

Bet the flop bet the turn bet the river. I don't see any reason to check the Queen on the turn. Ace high, a ten, or even king high may pay you off here.

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

I would bet both the turn and the river. If you check the turn it should be because you are worried about getting raised and hate facing the decision. That makes it an easy river bet when the turn checks around, though.

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

Why didn't you bet the turn? I'd bet the turn and the river. Some idiot with A high or a possibly a lower pocket pair is viable to call.

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
Why didn't you bet the turn? I'd bet the turn and the river. Some idiot with A high or a possibly a lower pocket pair is definitely going to call.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

Re: Board double pairs without me, Keep betting?
 

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
that Q changed nothing and was a fantastic card for you b/c loose players now thing "oh, duh, he no have queen." turn check is very costly vs. these opponents imo.

bet the turn. bet the river. this shows a little trigger shyness that you really need to get over b/c many many bets are made in pots like this.

-Barron

[/ QUOTE ]

Should the OP be betting the turn and river planning to fold to a raise?

[/ QUOTE ]

OP should betting with the intention of calling a raise, esp from the next to act. If Mr 73% calls and the SB check raises, it's muckable, but otherwise you have to call if it's only one more bet back to you. Plenty of opponents are gonna think you have "A" high and raise their PPs on you.

What if he had...
 

Doesn't Sklansky mention this in HPFAP. Something about checking the turn on a paired board against aggressive opponents. I think in the example its heads up, and the Hero is last, but isn't there some similarity? Ok, if either of them has a Q or a 3 we're probably getting raised if he bets the turn. A flush draw will call, i'm assuming, as will A-high, and maybe K-high. The absence of flop action leads me to believe that nobody has a flush draw, but somebody might have a 3. Is checking and giving what is probably a 3 outer a free card really that horrible?

My first reaction was to say "bet the turn", but i'm not so sure, anybody feel like tearing my post apart? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

lf